2007 games we gave away

[rluzinski]

I think they "lucked" into a lot of bad losses

 

There's two sides to that coin, however. You can just as correctly say that they lucked themselves into a lot of big, early leads. Just because one happened before the other (getting big leads vs blowing big leads) doesn't make either performance sample anymore representative of the team's actual skill level. Since we both agree that it was all mostly weird happenstance to begin with, why wouldn't we just assume more of a random inning by inning distribution of runs scored and given up, if done over? That's exacty what the pythagorean record does. Average scoring distribution per game; random pairing of runs scored vs. runs given up.

 

I may be doing a terrible job of explaining my position but there's nothing controversial about it. No crazy math involved, I promise.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think they "lucked" into a lot of bad losses

 

There's two sides to that coin, however. You can just as correctly say that they lucked themselves into a lot of big, early leads. Just because one happened before the other (getting big leads vs blowing big leads) doesn't make either performance sample anymore representative of the team's actual skill level. Since we both agree that it was all mostly weird happenstance to begin with, why wouldn't we just assume more of a random inning by inning distribution of runs scored and given up, if done over? That's exacty what the pythagorean record does. Average scoring distribution per game; random pairing of runs scored vs. runs given up.

 

I may be doing a terrible job of explaining my position but there's nothing controversial about it. No crazy math involved, I promise.

 

 

 

I believe you're thinking that I'm not understanding what you're saying (or maybe not) but I certainly do. I understand that it doesn't matter *when" the runs score, only that they score. However, individual game context-wise, when you have a 3 run lead in the 7th or later innings, I think it stands to reason that much more often than not, you're going to win.

I think we're at a crossroads where we'll have to agree to disagree. You think the PYG-record is indicative of the Brewers talent level, while I think that the number of blown 3+ run leads indicates a bit of bad luck and a little bit of a lack of clutch performance in very specific in-game situations. I'm not discounting pythagorean mathematics at all. I just think they take 100% of the human element out of the game when you're talking about each specific game circumstance. The only thing PYG tells you is how many wins a team should have based on runs scored/allowed, regardless of talent level. I'm saying that it was extremely improbable that the team gave up as many big/late leads as they did, and PYG never takes that into it's equation.