Other ill effects from Braves series: MVP and ROY? (Merged: Negro League Museum Awards)

[watertown28]

braun will not win ROY because the talking heads will shove tulo in everyones faces

[fallingleaves]

Tulowitzki has had a fantastic year, granted he is playing in Colorado. If the Rockies make the playoffs there is no doubt he wins it over Braun.

[jhart05]

Is there anyone left who does not understand why he is taken out late in games?

[TooLiveBrew]

Loud noises!

[SeriesFinale]

Yeah, with the Rockies charging and the Brewers fading, Braun is looking less and less a lock with every passing day

[jlau20]

A week ago I would have said Braun was a lock, heck, I think I even said it three or four days ago. Now, I would probably put it at 50/50. If I was voting it would be hard to ignore what Braun's done offensively in two-thirds of a season, but with the Brewers losing, the Rockies winning and Tulowitzki putting up good numbers for a shortstop offensively, not to mention his pretty solid defense, I really would have a hard time choosing between the two.

[watertown28]

Is there anyone left who does not understand why he is taken out late in games?

I can understand why, but then again if the game is close who you rather have at the plate....noodle bat councell or braun?

 

[jlau20]

Prince grand slam in the 5th today to take the lead, leading us to a victory and putting us only one behind the Cubs = MVP

 

Prince grounding out to short, ending the inning, Crew eventually losing the game to leave the Cubs two ahead = someone else MVP

[TheBrewer]

I don't get how Brauns not a lock, I think people are really stupid in which they fail to not only see Brauns numbers compared to Tulo, much less that Tulo hits about .250 on the Road and .330 at home. If Braun doesn't get ROY Id be shocked to death

[bklynbrewcrew]

If defense is to be considered which it should it needs to be taken into account that Tulowitski has inflated numbers due to playing in Colorado. His road numbers are not impressive at all but the national media wants to ignore that. Braun is having one of the greatest rookie offensive seasons in baseball history and his numbers are so overly impressive that it would be a crime for him not to win rookie of the year.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't get how Brauns not a lock, I think people are really stupid in which they fail to not only see Brauns numbers compared to Tulo, much less that Tulo hits about .250 on the Road and .330 at home. If Braun doesn't get ROY Id be shocked to death

 

I'd brace yourself, or make sure your life insurance is paid up -- Because this vote is going to be a lot closer than a lot of people think.

 

With Braun's performance last night his fielding pct. plummeted under .900. That is horrible. People really need to understand, that this is as epically bad as he has been good at the plate. It has been a long time since a rookie has performed as well plate and this horribly in the field. Braun getting pulled for a vegetable like Counsell by Yost every night, will really resonate with voters. After all, shouldn't a ROY be able to finish a game?

 

SS is a harder position to play than 3b, and Tulo is playing it defensively as well if not better than anyone else in the NL.

 

The Rockies rise and the Brewers slide doesn't bode well for Braun either. Esp. given the fact that Col.,is one of the best defensive teams in MLB and Milw. is one of the worst.

 

The splits argument is rather shallow for me as well. On the road he is just below average for SLG, overall he is in the top 3. Defensively he is the same SS away and at home.

 

My problem with home/away splits, is people only pay attention to the stats when the splits are large.

 

E.g.

 

If Player A hits 50 HRs total -- 35 at home and 15 on the road -- people go nutty

If Player B hits 50 HRs total -- 27 at home and 23 on the road -- people don't notice.

 

Now let's say they both play in the same park -- People will go nutty over the difference in splits, but the fact remains that Player A and Player B both had the same advantage (park factor) for their home ABs. -- Basically the difference in their home and road splits is irrelevant IMO. -- People will look at their splits and conclude that for Player A was creation of his park, while player B isn't -- when in fact both players enjoyed the same advantage. Now this sort of argument has a lot more merit over the course of 3 seasons, but over the course of 1 season and 300 PAs (insert standard BF.net small sample rant).

 

Now, does Tulo have an advantage over Braun playing in Coors over Miller? -- Probably. That is what park-factors are for. Now, if you want to compare Braun and Tulo with some sort of metric that incorporates a PF as a variable, I am totally onboard with that, and that IMO is the proper way to compare Braun/Tulo offensively rather than to just look at Tulo's home/away splits.

 

The bottom line to me, is that Tulo is hitting in a park that is advantageous, but people only pay attention to what his splits are, when in fact, his overall production should be adjusted regardless of how close or far his splits are.

 

I would guess that Tulo is still a top 5 NL SS even with some sort of park adjustment, and Braun is probably a top 3-4 3b in the NL. Does VORP get adjusted for park factors? -- I am pretty sure it does, if so, Tulo is the 5th NL ss, Braun is the 4th NL 3b -- now throw in the fact that Tulo is among the best fielding SSs in the NL and Braun is one of the worst fielding 3bs -- They really are not that far apart, or certainly Braun is not a "lock".

 

Braun has a higher VORP than Tulo -- but once you add in defense, Tulo pulls ahead.

 

The bottom line: If you want to penalize Tulo for playing at Coors, do so with a metric that includes a park factor, just don't compare his home and away stats. -- The difference is probably more due to small-sample argument stuff rather than exclusively a HF advantage.

[JoeH33]

In my opinion, Braun is going to win easily. Braun has been leading the chase for the ROY for so long that the media outlets are just trying to make it interesting by bringing up another possible canidate. Tulowitzki is a great young player, but there's no way voters are going to value his defense over Brauns staggering offensive numbers.

[JJHardy7]

I understand Braun's defense needs work, but I still believe he'll be able to handle 3B. He's only been playing it a few years. We all knew this would be the sacrifice of calling him up this year (albeit probably didn't think 3 errors in a game), so it's not shocking. I think before we jump to moving him (as has been proposed here many times) let's see how he comes into spring training.

 

I personally think Braun should win ROY, but with some awards being a playoff team always helps the cause. To be totally honest the ROY award isn't that big of a deal and some who have one it in the past haven't panned out.

[Ennder]

Tulo is Eckstein on the road(.719 OPS), I just don't see voters looking past that. He is a great defensive SS but the offense is mostly just another Coors inflated player.

 

Move him to another park and nobody is noticing him at all.

[PlayerHader]

Is shortstop really the tougher position to play? Now, I haven't played either in MLB, obviously, but I've played both in HS and in both fastpitch softball and slowpitch and I've definitely watched enough games. You get more balls at SS, but I would say the average play that a SS is asked to make is more "routine" than the average play at 3B has to make. Ask A-Rod which spot he'd rather play.

[Menotti80]

if i had a vote, i would pick Tulo right now

[BrewCrewForever]

Well it's at least worthy of discussion since Braun is so bad in the field. If you only looked at offensive number then Braun wins easily.

Yeah if they look at errors and defensive numbers at all, Braun might not win it.

 

[Menotti80]

on that note I would also give the MVP to Holliday (if the Rockies make the playoffs), then Rollins (if the Phillies make the playoffs).

 

David Wright is out of contention IMO, so if the other 3 teams all don't make the playoffs, then I may still give the edge to Prince.

 

But for now, if the Phillies come all the way back and make the playoffs or the Rockies somehow get in, they are much more deserving to get the MVP then the best player on a team that completely choked down the stretch...

[jhart05]

Is there anyone left who does not understand why he is taken out late in games?

I can understand why, but then again if the game is close who you rather have at the plate....noodle bat councell or braun?

 

I would rather have Counsell picking up that bunt, making a good throw to second to start a double play, over Braun throwing it into the outfield, leaving two guys on and no outs.

 

But, I have no doubt the kid will work hard in the off season to improve his defense. It's been pointed out that Mike Schmidt and George Brett were also brutal in the field when they first started, look how they ended up.

[Fatter than Joey]

It's been pointed out that Mike Schmidt and George Brett were also brutal in the field when they first started, look how they ended up.

 

This is so untrue and incorrect. Neither Brett and Schmidt were "brutal" -- both were average fielders that became GGers. Neither one had anything

remotely close to Braun's sub 900 fielding pct. I have heard the same thing about Boggs as well, and it is equally untrue.

 

Brett, Boggs and Schmidt all improved, but to compare them to Braun is flat out incorrect.

[homer]

FTJ is right - neither Brett nor Schmidt (nor Rolen, nor Nettles, nor Wright) were as bad as Braun is now. But.....Braun does not need to be gold glove caliber at 3B in order to have tremendous value. He just needs to be average.

[Ennder]

remember Weeks.... thats all I gotta say, if Braun is still this way at the All-Star break next season then.. ill consider it more, but give him a chance

 

Weeks is still the worst or 2nd worst second basemen in baseball, so I don't see what is to remember.

[Fatter than Joey]

Braun does not need to be gold glove caliber at 3B in order to have tremendous value. He just needs to be average.

 

I agree -- or play 3b from LF http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[homer]

Yeah, I'm starting to move myself over to the "Braun in Left" camp. The thing is big numbers third basemen are hard to find. It's a lot easier to find a power hitting FA to play left field.

[TheBrewer]

remember Weeks.... thats all I gotta say, if Braun is still this way at the All-Star break next season then.. ill consider it more, but give him a chance