Explanation of our Road Woes? (Merged: Final Road Record: 32-49)

[twobrewers]

Only three teams in all of baseball have less road wins than the Brewers....(Thanks Washington, Tampa and Houston)

 

We currently are 45-26 at home and 28-44 on the road. Last year we were 48-33 at home and 27-54 at home.

 

Does anyone have any idea of why we are so bad on the road? I understand that certain factors will always favor the home team. The home team clearly has a better understanding of the stadium and conditions of their home field. (For example, Jenkins always knows how to play balls at Miller Park off the wall when hit down the line) But how many wins can that account for over the course of a year?

 

A fastball at Miller Park should look pretty darn similar to a fastball at PNC park. A groundball at Wrigley should look like a ground ball at Miller. It is the same pitcher vs batter matchup at every single park. It just seems as though our horrible road record is way out of whack and has to have major statistical significance.

 

In basketball and football I believe that the home crowd plays a large part of the "home field" advantage. I just don't see the crowd playing as much of an advantage in baseball. In football you can drown out the opposing quarterbacks calls as the line of scrimmage and also get the adrenalin of our own players going. In baseball, the crowd is rarely that loud - and too much excitement can certainly hurt your team as they try to do too much. (Swinging at high fastballs trying to hit it out of the park)

 

Also, most players don't live in Milwaukee so they don't have the luxury of really being home while in Milwaukee. On the road they stay at a hotel. In Milwaukee they are staying at a condo or apartment - how different is that?

 

Are they just tired from traveling?

Are then enjoying the night life of the new cities?

Does the home crowd play that much of an advantage? (And why not for other teams then?)

Is batting last that much of an advantage?

Does the park affect play too much? (If so, can't we scout it better?)

Or is there just some random uncomfort that our players can't overcome?

 

We talk about how our team needs to walk more....pitch better...have a better bullpen...play better defense...make contract...hit to the opposite field...etc. But it seems to me the one thing that is holding us back more than anything is playing on the road. I just refuse to believe that we can solve the enormous difference.

 

Other teams aren't this bad on the road - what are we doing wrong?

 

(And if you are planning on bashing Ned - can you explain how he makes a difference between home and road splits?)

[dannyjnoonan]

"Also, most players don't live in Milwaukee so they don't have the luxury of really being home while in Milwaukee. On the road they stay at a hotel. In Milwaukee they are staying at a condo or apartment - how different is that?"

 

Are you saying an apartment isn't a home? It's more like a hotel? Huh?

 

I think it's all of those things you just listed. Traveling takes it's toll on all people. Having fan support makes people feel better. Getting enough sleep makes people feel better. And feeling better makes people hit better and pitch better. That's how our brains work.

[timothyw80]

I think I read somewhere yesterday that Cordero has blown something like six games on the road this year. So if not for those games the brewers road record could look something like 34-38 which wouldn't seem all the bad. I'm not saying Cordero shouldn't ever blow a game but he has somewhat been a Jeckle & Hyde this year.

[Ennder]

The team OPS and OPS against splits are all out of whack on the home vs road compared to league average too, so its definitely a full team effort.

 

No clue why we can't win on the road.

[rluzinski]

The team OPS and OPS against splits are all out of whack on the home vs road compared to league average too, so its definitely a full team effort.

 

Straight production only explains part of it, though:

 

				Win %
		RS	RA	Pyth	Act	Diff
	Home	367	315	0.576	0.634	0.058
	Road	330	384	0.425	0.389	0.036
	Total	697	699	0.499	0.510	---

A league average .499 win% team would be expected to have a win% of about .540 at home and .460 on the road ( 4%). So, on the road, raw run production and prevention explains about half of the discrepency and using those runs inefficiently explains the other half (losing a bunch of close games, for instance). One could argue that the Brewers have actually been more lucky at home than they've been unlucky on the road, though. It could just as easily be proposed that the Brewers are just a bad team who collectively has an incredable and unexplanable ability to play well at home.

 

What do I think? Perhaps the Brewers have some unquantifiable quality that contributes to the extreme split (Al keeps saying age but provides no evidence). I can't rule it out but am confident that luck is playing some role in it as well. How much? More than zero.

[bork]

If it was just one year, I might just chalk it up to luck. But I remember hearing that the Brewers have had the best home record in baseball over the past 3 years, while having one of the worst road records (bottom 5?). 3 years would seem to make a trend.

 

But it is interesting how this is the opposite of Yost's first season when they went 31-50 at home and 37-44 on the road (his best road record).

[Fatter than Joey]

I think that the fans at Miller Park have gotten effective at their booing.

 

When the fans boo the players they then know that they have to play better.

 

When they go on the road, there is no booing so they have no idea that they should get it together and consequently, continue to play crappy.

 

I am pretty sure that is it.

[davego]

Remember that in the last seasons of County, this worked the other way. The 'Crew had a much better road record.

 

Maybe it is just randomness over a few seasons, or maybe it goes into a change in the prep or comfort level that rluz pointed out, just cannot be measured.

[brewcrewnation]

My thought is that there a young team.

[twobrewers]

I think it's all of those things you just listed. Traveling takes it's toll on all people. Having fan support makes people feel better. Getting enough sleep makes people feel better. And feeling better makes people hit better and pitch better. That's how our brains work.

But every other team faces the same circumstances.

 

What do I think? Perhaps the Brewers have some unquantifiable quality that contributes to the extreme split (Al keeps saying age but provides no evidence). I can't rule it out but am confident that luck is playing some role in it as well. How much? More than zero.

As usual, thanks for the good information. The reason I brought this topic up was the I believe we have reached a point where luck can't explain this large discrepancy anymore. We aren't talking about a bad 10 game road stretch - or even one full season. This has been going on for several seasons now.

 

The frailty of Cordero on the road is a good point. His numbers have been horrible on the road - thus really skewing our road record.

 

But I might to to lean towards FTJ - perhaps all that booing is really helping!

[jeffy]

I don't know what the cause is, but none of the attempts at explanation make any sense (except possibly it just being a statistical anomaly) as no other team has such a consistent discrepancy between home and road records and all those other teams travel and there are and have been other teams with many young players.

I would think if Yost was letting the guys stay out all night partying, we'd have heard about it.

A think an interesting question would be: Did the minor league teams have this sort of home/road difference when some of these same guys were in AAA and AA? Another question would how extreme is this historically...have other teams have this sort of thing happen from time to time?

[sheethead]

Explanation of our Road Woes?

IMO, Ned Yost. Seems less coincidental with the last two blowouts in game one of previous two road series. --> Nay for life.

[naivin]

http://www.notcot.com/images/Absolut_Family_Ruby-thumb.jpg

 

 

http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2006/07/31/BeerDelGrande_narrowweb__300x460,0.jpg

 

 

[Patrick425]

I don't know if naivin makes that post "toungue in cheek", but I think there is some truth to it. Not that all the Brewers are drunks that stagger back to their rooms at 4 in the morning. However, they are young. They're not an older team that has been traveling to different cities for many years now and the "thrill" has gone away. Many of these guys are relatively new to this and my guess is that they like to have some fun when they are in different cities, like most normal 20 something's would. Do they do this enough that it affects there play the next day?...who knows?

[rluzinski]

Anyone looking for any one, tidy explanation isn't going to find one. Also, the assumption that the unusual split is caused by an attribute the entire team possesses just doesn't really make much sense, IMO. It's like saying an entire team is anti-clutch or "just knows how to win".

Finally, while it may look like it on the surface, dumb luck is probably the largest contributor to all this (although not necessarily the only one). When you start splitting up the data, you realize just how volitile these numbers really are in the first place. Let's look at one of the biggest culprits on the offensive side this year, Jenkins:

Home: .958 OPS
Away: 700 OPS

He obviously can't play well on the road, right? Let's look at his splits from 2004-2006:

Home: .807 OPS
Away: .844 OPS

Did something change about Geoff Jenkins this year change? Probably not. He's just happened to have most of his good games on the road this year. It happens.

Here's the OPS splits for all batters with over 250 AB this year:

NAME

Overall Home Away

Diff

J.J. Hardy .790 .809 .771 .038 Prince Fielder .997 1.033 .963 .070 Corey Hart .883 .967 .799 .168 Bill Hall .756 .793 .720 .073 Johnny Estrada .709 .647 .767 -.120 Ryan Braun 1.010 1.062 .963 .099 Geoff Jenkins .820 .958 .700 .258 Rickie Weeks .769 .694 .828 -.134 Kevin Mench .748 .874 .623 .251 Craig Counsell .653 .565 .725 -.160
Keep in mind, as a league, MLB batters have a ..769 OPS at home and a .744 OPS on the road.

 

[lumberrule]

I agree, its not just one simple thing that sticks out that says THIS is the reason we are so bad on the road.

 

I do believe, however, that one reason we do struggle on the road - especially in "pitchers" parks - is that this team is not built for a "pitchers" park. This team is built to play in Miller Park 81 games out of the year - a team built by offensive power via the extra base hit and home run. The Brewers seem to struggle in certain "pitchers" parks - like Chavez Ravine, Petco, Dolphin Stadium, and PNC for example - because they aren't built on pitching and defense, which is what the teams that play in those stadiums are built for.

 

Here's our road record in terms of ballpark this year:

@FLA (Dolphin Stadium): 2-1

@STL (Busch Stadium): 2-4

@CIN (Great American): 4-5

@CHC (Wrigley): 4-5

@HOU (Minute Maid): 4-2

@NYM (Shea): 1-2

@PHI (Citizens Bank): 1-3

@LAD (Dodger Stadium): 1-2

@SD (PETCO): 0-3

@TEX (Arlington): 1-2

@DET (Comerica): 2-1

@MIN (Metrodome): 2-1

@PIT (PNC): 1-4

@WAS (RFK): 1-2

@COL (Coors): 0-3

@ARZ (Bank One): 2-1

@SF (AT&T): 0-3

I've highlighted the parks widely considered as "pitchers" parks (some might even consider the Ballpark at Arlingon a pitchers park too). Our collective record at those parks this year is 10-22, 12 games under .500. The rest of our road parks: a much more respectable 18-22.

 

I truly believe this has something to do with it. Certainly not everything, but something.

[Ennder]

Why do the pitchers do so much worse in road stadiums though? I can buy that the offense has problems in pitchers parks but the pitching should be better and not worse in those parks.

[Tailgat0r76]

I think lumberrule may be onto something there.

 

We are a home run hitting team. When the fences are longer, and it's tougher to hit home runs; we struggle.

[lumberrule]

Why do the pitchers do so much worse in road stadiums though? I can buy that the offense has problems in pitchers parks but the pitching should be better and not worse in those parks.

 

Because our defense is HORRIBLE. I don't think the pitching itself is THAT much worse...but if our already average at best defenders are forced to cover more ground and play better defense in parks where defense is at a premium, you might have your answer.

[jeffy]

Home ERA = 4.03 (league avg = 4.17)

 

Road ERA = 5.04 (league avg = 4.64)

 

So league avg goes up by 0.47 and Brewer's goes up by 1.01 on the road. I don't buy the "pitcher's parks", based on this. Also not that without the Brewer's contribution the league road ERA would go up by about 0.4...so Brewer's goes up by 2.5 times the average for other teams.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why do people insist on calling Miller Park a hitter's park? Since its opening, it has played just about as neutrally as possible. There are many parks in MLB that are far shorter than 344/5 down the lines, and our gap & CF distance is roughly average - hence, average park factor.

 

In fact, this year the park has played much closer to a "pitcher's park" - as of yesterday, Miller ranked 19th out of 30 MLB stadiums. Why make assumptions without really investigating?

 

Park Factor Rankings

[rluzinski]

Why do people insist on calling Miller Park a hitter's park? Since its opening, it has played just about as neutrally as possible.

 

It's a neutral park but is also a HR park (1.03 HR park factor, 3 years of data, regressed):

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2006/12/park-factors-2006.html

 

That means that Miller Park gives up 6% more HRs than a neutral park. Take the Brewers out of Miller Park and into a place like PNC Park (.95 HR Factor!) and it's going to hurt an offense built on the long ball.

[bjkrautk]

Just to bring it up: who says it's our team that plays better at home?

 

Per ESPN radio this morning, Milwaukee and Detroit are tied for the least enjoyable road destinations in a survey MLB players. (...or something to that effect.)

[jeffy]

This "least enjoyable" would, if anything, probably be a contrary indicator of performance...the boring cities where there is "nothing to do" are where the visiting team will probably play best. http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif

You could always check some stats to see if visiting teams have actually played worse here than elsewhere, though.

[AJAY]

Another year of terrible baseball on the road. Why does this team stink so much away from home? What is it that the franchise hasn't figured out yet?