BA Top Prospect Lists

[SoCalBrewfan]

BA's prospect rating season is underway, and they've completed the two complex-based Rookie Ball leagues.

 

I'm sure it will not be much of a surprise for anyone who followed the fortunes of the team to note that none of the Baby Brewers in the Arizona League made the league Top 20 prospect list.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/264877.html

 

I have allowed my subscription to lapse, so can't say whether any Brewers came up in the chat.

[colbyjack]

Here's the schedule for the league top prospect lists, the Pioneer League is up tomorrow (Tuesday), and there's no way the H-Crew gets shut out:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/leaguetop20/2007/

 

Here's one Q&A from the Arizona League chat with John Manuel concerning the Baby Brewers:

 

Q: Tim from Proctorville, Ohio asks:

Rolando Pasqual repeated the AZL, pitched little and didn't show much. Is it fair to say the Brewers missed with this signing?

 

A: John Manuel:

Well, he didn't qualify for this list. I wouldn't write him off by any stretch, but no one would know who this guy was if his bonus of $710k hadn't been reported. He'd be just another Latin pitcher struggling to pitch in a foreign country as a teenager. The Brewers don't have a team in the DSL or VSL, so he has to pitch against more polished hitters--look at the guys who led the league in hitting and HRs, both 22-year-old collegians. Tough assignment for a player like that, and he hasn't succeeded yet. The Brewers may need to rethink their decision to start their Latin players in the AZL; so far, it has not put their players in position to have success or develop.

 

He also noted that the Brewers and the A's had the worse amount of talent prospect-wise of all of the teams, although I think it's been clear the past several years that the Brewers don't even send their top prospects to Arizona, at least not for very long.

 

And is there a reason people that write about baseball, or at least a fair amount of the younger ones, find it necessary to point out what kind of music they listen to? I don't get it...

[kgbaseball]

Which brings up the question, what are the Brewers waiting for? Put together a program in the Dominican or Venezuelan Summer Leagues!

[homer]

They had one. They got rid of it a few years ago.

[colbyjack]

Yeah, they claimed that they did a detailed analysis of the programs in the DR and VEN were doing the system any good, and they decided to close those camps down and instead use the money on paying more money on a select few, pricier international free agents. It's hard to determine whether or not that's the way to go, as we can't just point to guys like Pascual and Peralta to determine if it has or not, and the Brewers clearly have never been particularly good in this area, at least not for the last 20 years.

[biedergb]

If I remember correctly (Patrick & others can correct me if I'm wrong) part of the decision to disban the DSL was that the Brewers felt they would rather spend big money on a few Latin signings rather than a little money for a team worth of players. We had several years of intriguing prospects who never made the transition from DSL to rookie leagues (but back then we had 2 Pioneer League teams).

Do teams every "share" a DSL club -- maybe that's the way to go, split a team in DSL or VSL and just put our "few" Latin signees on the club and bring the successful ones to Arizona or Helena.

[colbyjack]

The Pioneer League list is up, and once again the Brewers are well-represented. Caleb Gindl checks in at #2, Jonathan Lucroy is #6 and Rob Bryson is #8.

 

The scouting reports are on the weak side if you ask me, highlighted by this curious comment by Ben Badler (who is chatting at 1:30 CST):

 

Gindl is an average defender in left field with a plus arm in terms of both strength and accuracy. There's no reason he couldn't move to right field in the future.

 

Didn't Gindl play exclusively in RF this past summer?

 

To paraphrase the reports, Gindl is praised for his bat speed, approach and ability to hit both fastballs and breaking pitches. His arm strength and accuracy (as noted above) also are plus attributes as is his character and work ethic.

 

Lucroy has a good bat, knows how to hit the ball the other way and is praised for his leadership skills. Threw out 43% of opposing baserunners despite his reputation as a below average catcher defensively.

 

Bryson's low to mid-90s fastball was down this summer due to heavy workload. Improving slider & changeup, but overall Bryson's write-up wasn't very good (it looked like a carry over from his scouting report from June's draft, and a little lazy IMO).

 

I'm going to try and bombard this guy with Brewers related questions. I'm not sure if guys like Seidel didn't qualify given his relatively low IP total, but I was a little surprised to not see his name.

 

Oh yeah, Parra and Prince were the #3 and #4 prospects on this list 5 years ago.

[homer]

Who was ahead of Parra and Prince?

[colbyjack]

James Loney and Jhonathan Figueroa (LHP) of the Dodgers.

[colbyjack]

biedergb, I commented on the reasons for closing the DSL camp a little bit above, noting the team's desire to use the money to spend more on a select few, such as Pascual, Peralta, Arias-Guzman, Garcia and even Cuban signee Yohannis Perez. The team I believe did share its Venezuelan camp at one point in time, I want to say with the Red Sox or something like that, or there was some kind of system in place in which teams that didn't have DSL or VSL camps could "lend" their players to teams that did. I do think that is something the Brewers should lack back into, although I wouldn't point to Pascual's slow progression as the Brewers most recent efforts as failing.

 

As for today's Pioneer League chat, I must say I'm pretty disappointed. I know Ben Badler is an intern, but the chat and his scouting reports just seemed rather uninspired and he focused way too much on stats when talking about prospects at the rookie level. That makes it especially hard to take such rankings too seriously.

 

The Sally League is up next Monday (10/1), the FSL is 10/4, the Southern League is 10/8 and the PCL is 10/11.

[biedergb]

biedergb, I commented on the reasons for closing the DSL camp a little bit above

Yeah, sorry Patrick. I read your post and focused on the last point and missed that I repeated exactly what you had said.

 

I want to say with the Red Sox or something like that, or there was some kind of system in place in which teams that didn't have DSL or VSL camps could "lend" their players to teams that did. I do think that is something the Brewers should lack back into, although I wouldn't point to Pascual's slow progression as the Brewers most recent efforts as failing.

Thanks again. I agree I don't think Pascual/Peralta should be sign of failure any more than Alcides Escobar should be a sign of success.

[colbyjack]

I got my print edition of BA in the mail today with all of the league top prospect lists. I won't ruin any surprises for people that haven't received their's yet or just have the online subscription, but I'll give a couple of hints and notes of interest:

 

The Brewers do get shut out from one of the remaining league top prospect lists, and the league they are shut out may surprise you.

 

Only three different prospects are represented of the remaining four leagues the Brewers have affiliates in that have yet to be covered on BA's website.

 

One of those prospects is listed in two different leagues, and that play may surprise some people (but certainly not our beloved Link Report scribe).

 

I will say that BA did something new this year by ranking the top prospects in Independent ball, and outfielder Scott Houin, whom the Brewers signed in August and sent to Helena, was rated the 7th best indy ball prospect.

 

A few other non-prospect top prospect list notes:

 

Taylor Green was named to BA's low-A All-Star team, with Jonathan Lucroy and Caleb Gindl being named to their rookie level all-star squad.

 

Andrew Lefave's .345 batting average was third-best in all of the minors of those with at least 378 plate appearances.

 

Hernan Iribarren's 12 triples were tied for third best.

 

Darren Ford's 67 stolen bases were tied for fourth best.

 

Adam Pettyjohn's 16 wins were tied for second best of pitchers with at least 112 innings.

 

Will Inman's 180 strikeouts were second best.

[colbyjack]

The Sally league list is up today, the Brewers got shut-out from this league despite having quite a few promising players play for the Power. Jeremy Jeffress has got to be the biggest surprise omission, and I don't think BA takes anything away from players that are/were suspended.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/264942.html

 

Bill Ballew is chatting at 1pm today, a good chance to get your Power questions in.

[colbyjack]

Two of my questions got answered today, the only two concerning the Brewers.

 

The first one was concerning Jeffress, to which Bill Ballew noted that even without the suspension that Jeffress did not receive much love from across the league for his inability to have any feel for his pitches. This still surprises me, as Mike Jones and Mark Rogers were pretty much the same type of pitchers at the same point in their careers, yet managers and scouts raved about both of those guys. You have to wonder if the makeup (suspension) played a big part in this.

 

The second question asked about Zach Braddock and if he received any consideration despite being out since June. Ballew noted that in a 16-team league it was easy to forget about some players, adding that he had seen Braddock earlier in the year and that he was lights out.

 

I asked other questions regarding Ford, Lefave, Green, Chapman and Brewer without a response.

 

Is it just me or are the chats less exciting and more uninspired than what they used to be in the past? I know it is all just subjective information, and it could be because they're now for subscribers only, but the effort doesn't seem to be the same as it used to be in the past.

 

Plus, it seems as though BA might be starting to lean towards performance over potential. No way Billy Rowell ranks as far down as he did in past years, and the same goes for Jeffress. Plus, there's no way the 5'9" Gindl is ranked #2 ahead of Jordan Walden and Aaron Poreda despite leading the league in hitting based on tools and raw projection.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Alcides Escobar is both the only infielder (non-1b) and the only Brewer on the FSL top 20 list. He checks in at #12, ahead of some prominent names, former first round picks and the like. WIth luck Colby will have a dozen questions answered about some of our jilted High-A heroes, like Gamel and Gillespie.

 

The infield in Milwaukee seems to be set for the time being, but it and the organizationin general are starved of quality defenders. So will Escobar be a guy that pushes Hardy over to 2nd or 3rd, improving the infield D? A lot depends on his bat, of course, since I can't think of a situation where Doug Melvin has preferred a good defender with a questionable bat...the opposite case is of course quite common.

 

On the other hand, I believe there was some a mention of Escobar in a trade deadline rumor this past year, and that might be the role he is destined to play in Milwaukee's future.

[colbyjack]

The lack of Brewers on this list was a little surprising, which includes Will Inman who had 78 IP for the 'Tees before getting bumped up, although JJ Cooper did just mention in his chat that Inman and Gamel would probably be in the 21-25 range if the list went that deep.

 

Otherwise I've been shut out in this chat. I hope the BA writers aren't reading my less than flattering comments here http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

It is telling of the Brewers organizational strength, although we could see a lot more names represented if several players bounce back next year, while Matt LaPorta is sue to get enough ABs at some level to get recognition, if not in two different leagues.

 

The general theme from the prospect list and the chat is that the FSL was very deep in talent, so having Escobar rank as the league's 12th best prospect despite having obvious limitations with his bat is very telling of what managers and scouts thought of him (and as Jim has been mentioning for years, Escobar is still very young).

 

From his scouting report they mention how much Escobar improved from last year to this year by adding strength to his frame and learning the importance of hitting the ball on the ground by shortening up his swing and taking advantage of his speed. They also mentioned how well he hit LHPs between two levels (.372), although I'd rather see him hit that well against RHPs. He's still is a great all-around defensive SS that makes all of the plays, easy and difficult, with great range and a great throwing arm.

[dadofandrew]

Inman being the 21st-25th best prospect in the FSL must be quite a blow to those who felt he was a top 5 minor league P prospect. He just screams out "minor league star, major league reliever", not to mention his lack of height makes a high ceiling a lot tougher, though not impossible.

[molitor fan]

Inman being the 21st-25th best prospect in the FSL must be quite a blow to those who felt he was a top 5 minor league P prospect

 

 

Al, could you defend this comment of yours, because I do not recall anyone really making that claim. Unless of course you are referring to his sister, and I would wonder why you are trying to take a shot at her if this is the case.

[dadofandrew]

I heard many act as if he was a Yo level prospect when he was dealt.

 

Who is his sister?

[colbyjack]

The Southern League is up today, with Manny Parra checking in at #8 and Escobar at #20. The SL was deep in talent (Upton, Longoria and Wade Davis #1-3), so having two players represented is a pretty good thing for a team that lacked legitimate big-league prospects. Escobar managing to make two different league top 20 lists is particularly intriguing, as he once again was praised for his slick glove yet questionable bat.

 

As for Inman, there were a few people around these parts prior to this year that felt he was a better pitching prospect than Gallardo. I still haven't given up on Inman (I still don't like that trade), whose success can't be ignored, and I'm still a little surprised he didn't factor into any of the league top 20 lists.

[gregmag]

I don't remember anyone calling Inman a top 5 pitching prospect in all of MLB. BP did have him on their preseason top 100 list -- in the 70s IIRC -- and John Sickels had a very favorable write-up of him during the season. I think the median opinion among credible talent evaluators -- among whom I certainly include Al, so I really mean "other credible talent evaluators" -- has been somewhat higher than "minor league star, major league reliever." Then again, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect . . .

 

The Yo comparisons were based on the fact that Inman's career numbers through midseason tracked Yo's very closely, so I don't think those comparisons are fairly subject to anything like ridicule. Of course, those comparisons also require some airing out, because Yo shot from A+ to the bigs very quickly, and nothing about his performance up to that point guaranteed that he could do so. In other words, maybe we could say that Inman was Yo for a while, but being Yo and staying Yo are two very different things.

 

The BA lists are leaving me kind of befuddled, although I'm not deeply versed in other organizations' talent. I understand that the lists depend on the relative strength of different leagues, but it seems like we should take from BA's assessment that Escobar is a whole lot more exciting than almost any of our other position prospects. I have a hard time buying that.

 

Greg.

[colbyjack]

A blurb from Alan Matthews from today's SL chat concerning Luis Pena as one of his sleepers to watch:

 

I mentioned Josh Roenicke as one of my sleepers in the SL this year, and Fernando Perez is another one (along with Huntsville righthander Luis Pena, who was up to 99 mph in the playoffs and really has an interesting arm).

 

Keep in mind that BA's lists are compiled after talking to league managers and scouts as well as factoring in age relative to the league, etc. I know that Escobar has been impressing with his glove for years, and keep in mind that the league top 20 lists don't necessarily coincide to the team top prospect lists that will be unveiled later this year (also, the team top prospect lists don't always coincide to the overall top 100 prospects).

 

I don't remember anyone calling Inman a top 5 pitching prospect in all of MLB.

 

I was talking about people around here. Will Inman received a couple of #1 rankings from people when we did our fan-based top prospect poll last fall. Certainly not places like BA, BP or anywhere else, who have always discredited Inman for his lack of ideal size and stuff. Were the Brewers goggles on? Probably, but still, I don't want to find reasons not to like him just to help me sleep better at night http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Well, if this year teaches us anything, it's that good defense at a key position is valuable. BA may have drifted away from their almost exclusive focus on tools rather than performance, but they still are further toward the scouting end of the continuum. While it's hard to say exactly what we have in Escobar, it's also clear that he's a talented defender who has at the very least managed to hold his own in AA at a very tender age. While it's true that his offensive contribution is almost all batting average, with a secondary average that is not good, at least he has that batting average, and time to develop into more.

 

In comparison to our other position prospects, well Escobar is definitely one of the top few IMO. He had an OPS in Brevard that was better than several outfielders (Cain, Ford) and about the same as the 1b (Errecart). He's younger than any of those guys, and apparently plays an excellent shortstop. Escobar had a better OPS in Huntsville than Michael Brantley (age about the same) but has so much more defensive value that the comparison of overall value is not close. IMO anyway. I'd have Escobar ahead of any of those guys for sure. Cole Gillespie is much older and hasn't hit AA yet, though I still think he has value. Angel Salome might be better, except that some scouts seem to think he might not stick at catcher, and that his suspension knocks him down. Gamel is a promising lefty bat, but likely a 1b or corner of down the road. Laporta is the only guy I'd have as a clear notch above Escobar. (I'd probably rank our top 5 positional prospects Laporta, Escobar, Gamel, Salome, then probably Gindl or one of the other OF, if anyone is keeping track. I might be convinced that someone like Lucroy should be in there, instead, but I haven't thought that through yet and am reluctant to get too excited about anyone based on their time in Helena. Maybe Hurricane or one of the WV infielders needs consideration also...)

 

Escobar is very likely to play in the bigs, and a decent bet to be a starter, even if it's only as a glove man for a couple of years. Even hitting an empty .280 could well be enough to get him a pretty long career. Given his age and tools, his upside is pretty high if he can turn those tools into some real offensive performance. Many of our other position players look to me like situational / bench players right now unless they do some serious developing...but I say that with caution as it is also easy to be misled by position players in pitchers' environments as extreme as the one in Brevard County.

 

I don't remember anyone saying they liked Inman better than Gallardo, but I can't promise that it never happened. From what I can remember, just about everyone here had Gallardo and Braun as the top two prospects last year, in various orders, with Inman #3 but clearly behind the big two. As I recall, the BA listing of Inman in the 70s was viewed with some skepticism, as was their statement that his upside was Joel Piniero.

[pogokat]

I think I came the closest to saying Inman was better than yo, but never actually did it...the thing i was looking at were:

 

Inmaan's stats were actually better than yo's in the low minors

 

Inman really only loses a click or two on the radar compared to yo...a 94 mph fastball versus a 92-93 isn't that big a difference

 

inman dominated like yo did not in my opportunities to see them

 

so, with that info in mind, i compared them fairly closely...i saw inman go head to head with all the marlins top prsopects, and he looked better. he threw every bit as hard as chris volstad and dominated the hitters in a way thaat volstad never could...

 

f course, inman is about 5'11, so he gets no respect on that front...

 

It's clear now that Yo was a better prospect, but i think it was defensibile to compare the two in 2005 and 2006...and i'm still quite surprised at how quickly the masses dismissed inman after he was traded...

[kgbaseball]

and i'm still quite surprised at how quickly the masses dismissed inman after he was traded...

It's easier to feel better about the Linebrink trade that way, would be my guess.