Brewers history with long-term contracts...

[twobrewers]

After reading a bit of the "Sheets worth a long deal" thread I started thinking about the Brewers and their history of handing out contracts.

I can't think of any success stories stemming from the Brewers offering long term contracts.

Sheets:
Has been injury prone the entire contract. Given the market rate - maybe he is worth his 10 million a year.
Turnbow:
Was an elite closer for a year. Received a few year contract - immediately threw a ball to the backstop.
Hall:
35 home runs and a budding superstar. Bench player who strikes out too much.
Suppan:
At least he has been healthy. Maybe too early to tell - but hard to justify all that money to a #3 pitcher
Counsell:
Ok - EVERYONE knew this was a bad idea.
Jenkins:
Has been pretty good for most of the contract. In the past two years he hasn't lived up to the money as a platoon player.

If I remember...Higuera signed a long term deal and proceeded to waste away as well.

How long has this been going on? Have we ever had success signing players long term?

Just makes me nervous to hear a lot of people talk about "locking up" a bunch of our younger players.

[Patrick425]

Don't forget Higuera, Hammonds, and Navarro.

edit: Oh, I see you did mention Higuera.

[twobrewers]

I forgot about handing Ned a long term contract...

[Fatter than Joey]

Brady Clark's contract was a bit longish

[JJHardy7]

Ben McDonald

[Ennder]

Suppan has pretty much been exactly what I expected and like it or not thats a $9-$10M pitcher now.

[twobrewers]

Brady Clark's contract was a bit longish

Yeah - I forgot that one. Since we gave him away...that is certainly a good example

 

Suppan has pretty much been exactly what I expected and like it or not thats a $9-$10M pitcher now.

Hard to really complain about Suppan so far. But we still have 3 more years, including the last two at 13M each. So this one has a ways to go yet.

[alwz4gbp]

I gotta think Hammonds was the worst. Maybe that or Bud giving Bando however long he gave him. I'm trying to block the Bando years out.

[Ennder]

Brady Clark's contract was a bit longish

Yeah - I forgot that one. Since we gave him away...that is certainly a good example

 

Suppan has pretty much been exactly what I expected and like it or not thats a $9-$10M pitcher now.

Hard to really complain about Suppan so far. But we still have 3 more years, including the last two at 13M each. So this one has a ways to go yet.

 

If he pitches like he has this year and doesn't get hurt the contract will end up being fair. If he sees any more regression though it could move into bad and even into disaster.

[1992casey]

If (Suppan) sees any more regression though it could move into bad and even into disaster.

You mean 'decline' rather than 'regression', don't you? If Jeff starts pitching poorly, I would think we'd hope he'd regress to the mean. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[1992casey]

Signing a player long-term always carries a risk. But along with that, one thing I think we have to do is give a GM and the player a mulligan on one year of a contract. Unanticipated things are going to happen. Or maybe, to put it more accurately, it would seem that you have to anticipate a down season or an injury-plagued year.

 

I think the Higuera deal is probably the poster child contract as something that backfired and hamstrung the team.

 

A close runner-up would be the Grissom contract. While the Brewers weren't the team that inked the deal, they did acquire the whole 5-year $25 million extension. It's not that Marquis was a bad player during his tenure in Milwaukee; it's just that he wasn't worth all those years and that amount of money.

 

It's hard to research the McDonald contract, but, if I remember correctly, I believe there was only one year that he didn't play. That year would have been insured, and the Brewers and Indians would have ended up splitting the remaining deductible. Correct me if I'm wrong. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

The Counsell contract generated a huge thread and there definitely wasn't agreement, so it's not accurate to say "EVERYONE" knew it was a bad idea. I was one of those screaming, but I think one of the reasons I was screaming was that his acquisition was crowding out Jeff Cirillo. I don't think the money involved is enough to be a concern.

 

Hall? Too early to tell. Turnbow? It sure looks like it would have been better to handle him on a year by year basis, but given the salary he would have received in 2006 either way, I'm not sure how much difference going year to year would have made.

 

I agree with twobrewers that the Jenkins contract has turned out to be a pretty good thing. I think it's an example of how inflation can catch up with a contract, and also probably an example of why teams consider long term deals, even with players they'll control for a while.

 

Clark? I think I'll make an exception to the one year mulligan on him. It's not like he plays three infield positions and it's not like his nice 2005 performance would have been hard to replace. Still, it wasn't an insane cost to absorb.

 

It looks like through all this rambling, I haven't come up with any bargains, either. Anyone able to answer twobrewers question: "Have we ever had success signing players long term?" There has to be a 'yes' in there somewhere.

[endaround]

If (Suppan) sees any more regression though it could move into bad and even into disaster.

You mean 'decline' rather than 'regression', don't you? If Jeff starts pitching poorly, I would think we'd hope he'd regress to the mean. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Suppan's FIP this year is 4.33. Better than his years in St Louis. His career FIP is 4.84. So regression would be about another .5 run, so regression might be appropriate.

 

 

 

Oh no Wes Helms mention? For shame!

 

[1992casey]

endaround, as you're pointing out that Jeff has moved away from the mean in a good way this year, I probably should have nitpicked the word "more" rather than regression. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[pitchleague]

"I can't think of any success stories stemming from the Brewers offering long term contracts."

 

I don't know about it being "long-term" but Robin Yount basically played with a 21-year contract and was pretty good.

 

But in recent years, yeah, not too many truly successful stories.

[JJHardy7]

Wasn't Turnbow's deal fairly reasonable? I don't really mind it besides the fact that he's not a closer.

 

If my memory serves me right, Hammonds got a 3 year 21 million dollar deal...after putting up somewhat decent numbers at Coors Field. That one is flat out sad.

 

In my opinion the biggest risk in these areas is bringing in someone from a different team. When you bring back your own guys you know how they'll fit in.

[1992casey]

Now that I look at it, the Brewers would have saved a fair--but not massive--amount of money by going year to year with Turnbow. Here's the deal:

• 2006: $1 million
• 2007: $2.3 million
• 2008: $3.2 million

I was thinking at first that the salary was more evenly spread and that with the 20% cut rule, there wouldn't have been a huge difference. But his salary last year was only $1 million. Working from that, he'd have gotten a token raise this year and would have probably reached $2 million or so next year. Still, that's not a lot in the scheme of things.

[Ennder]

If (Suppan) sees any more regression though it could move into bad and even into disaster.

You mean 'decline' rather than 'regression', don't you? If Jeff starts pitching poorly, I would think we'd hope he'd regress to the mean. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

You are correct, I really meant decline, I just used the wrong word.

 

 

[1992casey]

Similarly, we can hope that Hall regresses. I think that'll probably happen and the contract will turn out to be fine. Still, we're in the 'too soon to tell' stage.

[PeaveyFury]

The 4-year deal they gave Sexson worked out quite well for the team.

[Weirdos19]

Gonna bring Marquis Grissom into the conversation. Good before getting here, good after he left, pretty bad when he was here.

[sheethead]

Teddy Higuera is my worst in remembrance. Signed a 4 year $12+ million deal in 1990 and made 32 appearances (26 starts) after that going 5-10. This was a franchise record contract at the time. Fast forward to Ben Sheets. Another record breaking contract, better results, but still in no way ideal.

[reillymcshane]

Franklin Stubbs.

 

Heck of a deal.

[Robideaux]

"I don't know about it being "long-term" but Robin Yount basically played with a 21-year contract and was pretty good."

Now I'm not bashing Yount here because he was, and will always remain, my favorite baseball player of all-time, but after his 2nd MVP year in 1989 the Brewers signed him to a contract that (briefly) made him the highest paid player in baseball. He suffered a sharp decline in production in 1990 and in his last 4 seasons was never more than an average player.

 

I wouldn't change it if I could however because the 3 million a year for mediocre statistics was well worth being able to see him get his 3000th hit in a Brewer uniform--also it would have made me sick to my stomach to see him don an Angels uniform.

[bork]

I don't know about it being "long-term" but Robin Yount basically played with a 21-year contract and was pretty good.

Although I rememeber him signing a 3 year deal after he won the 1989 MVP. He declined quite a bit during that contract. Though I don't think it was a huge contract. But obviously a way different situation with Yount.

[davego]

That money could have been used for Molitor...just sayin...