2008 Centerfielder and Bill Hall; Team Defensive Issues

[clancyphile]

Hart in LF, Hall in CF, Gross in RF.

 

Letting Jenkins and Mench walk could free up $10 million for helping the team elsewhere.

[davego]

I'd go with what Clancy said. I'd assume we would be in the market for a RH bat to play with Gabe and I guess TGJ can be the #5 OF, so long as no crazy ideas float to actually let him play a lot.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I compare Braun's defensive struggles at third to Weeks' struggles at 2nd when he first came up. Weeks isn't a gold glove caliber defender, but he's improved enough to be serviceable at 2nd - and as we're seeing lately, when he's healthy his bat more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings. Defense is a skill that a player can improve by working on it - the Brewers have shown that they're willing to let one of their young players develop defensively at a very important defensive position (2B), so there's nothing to indicate that they won't allow Braun to continue to improve his defense at 3rd.

 

I'd keep Braun right where he is at 3rd and let him work to improve - he's plenty athletic enough for the position. Remember Aramis Ramirez and how brutal his defense was earlier in his career? Why mess around with making Braun an outfielder when we have plenty of other options for OF? I'd let Hall stay in center - he'll be motivated to have a bounce-back year. Keep Hart in right and either platoon gross/mench in left or see what can be had via trade or FA.

 

I think the biggest defensive areas of need for the Brewers are at catcher (Astros' announcers quoted one of their scouts on Estrada "He gets fatter and lazier by the day") and finding coaches that actually put their players in proper defensive alignments/positioning - the Brewers employ weird shifts to far too many players, and seem out of position far too much for their scouting system to be working properly....part of that is probably pitchers missing their spots or pitching away from the defensive shifts. I've seen that a few too many times this year also, when the OF is shifted for a righty to go the other way, and the pitcher's working him consistently inside.

[endaround]

I compare Braun's defensive struggles at third to Weeks' struggles at 2nd when he first came up. Weeks isn't a gold glove caliber defender, but he's improved enough to be serviceable at 2nd - and as we're seeing lately, when he's healthy his bat more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings. Defense is a skill that a player can improve by working on it - the Brewers have shown that they're willing to let one of their young players develop defensively at a very important defensive position (2B), so there's nothing to indicate that they won't allow Braun to continue to improve his defense at 3rd.

 

I'd keep Braun right where he is at 3rd and let him work to improve - he's plenty athletic enough for the position. Remember Aramis Ramirez and how brutal his defense was earlier in his career? Why mess around with making Braun an outfielder when we have plenty of other options for OF? I'd let Hall stay in center - he'll be motivated to have a bounce-back year. Keep Hart in right and either platoon gross/mench in left or see what can be had via trade or FA.

 

I think the biggest defensive areas of need for the Brewers are at catcher (Astros' announcers quoted one of their scouts on Estrada "He gets fatter and lazier by the day") and finding coaches that actually put their players in proper defensive alignments/positioning - the Brewers employ weird shifts to far too many players, and seem out of position far too much for their scouting system to be working properly....part of that is probably pitchers missing their spots or pitching away from the defensive shifts. I've seen that a few too many times this year also, when the OF is shifted for a righty to go the other way, and the pitcher's working him consistently inside.

If anybody hit as poorly as Braun plays defense they wouldn't be in the major leagues. Braun's defense is a win below replacement level. And Weeks is far from serviceable, the only player you can make a case he's better than defensively this year is the completely washed up Biggio. Yes Weeks isn't making errors but he still isn't getting to balls.

And even when Weeks was his worst, he was still significantly better than Braun.

 

[twobrewers]

I'd go with what Clancy said. I'd assume we would be in the market for a RH bat to play with Gabe and I guess TGJ can be the #5 OF, so long as no crazy ideas float to actually let him play a lot.

I think we already have that right handed bat...Joe Dillon.

 

I think Hall starts in CF (And rebounds from this year. Although not 35 HR - more like 23) Hart in LF and Gross in RF while platooning with Dillon. Dillon starts in RF against LHP and also backs up Weeks, Braun, and Prince. Counsell can obviously back up Weeks, Hardy and Braun for defensive purposes.

 

Only 18 at bats this year - but Joe is has on OPS of 1.378 against LHP. He cost $400,000 next year versus $4,000,000 for Mench. I believe Dillon will play a very big role in what we do next year. With his versitility, he has a realistic shot to get 350 - 400 at bats.

 

As mentioned that frees up 11 million from Jenks and Mench. We can use that to upgrade our bullpen, catcher - or keep to use on our young players to help ensure they stick around Milwaukee.

 

I would trade TGJ for a ham sandwich. A singles slap hitter who strikes out too much....those aren't very valuable. As far as I am concerned, he has no value other than a defensive replacement/pinch runner.

[Ennder]

I don't think Weeks will ever sniff servicable as a 2B in the majors. His upside is still below serviciable.

 

I'm not sure with Braun yet, I know he has been horrible this year but its just a hard thing to get a read on with only 2/3rds of a seasons data.

 

I'd like to see one of them in the OF but I don't think it will happen, for all the complaining about the pitching this year the fault should be squarly placed on the defense, the pitching has done just about exactly what was expected of it, the ERA's and BABIP are driven by that poor defense.

[sheethead]

I agree completely, the defense has been atrocious. And when things like Hart/Gross/Dillon misjudgments of fly balls go as hits, the ERA is even further overstated.

[Fatter than Joey]

the brewers are not fickle with position changes...i think that is well established...i see no reason why they would move braun off of 3b any quicker than they moved weeks off of 2b

 

If you are telling me that the Brewers are going to be stubborn -- I would agree that it is unlikely that the optimal situation will happen.

 

Weeks isn't a gold glove caliber defender, but he's improved enough to be serviceable at 2nd - and as we're seeing lately, when he's healthy his bat more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings.

 

Weeks is FAR from serviceable. He is among the worst defenders in the NL. Granted he has been hitting the ball better, but he has to hit among the best 2bs in baseball to make up for his defense. I know in other threads I have come down hard on Weeks, but what is really concerning me, is the lack of defense on 3 of our 4 IF spots.

 

Braun's defense is a win below replacement level.

 

To help give this more depth, if you had a team of players who were all at the same talent level, but were so bad they won about 25 games in a 162 game schedule, Braun would be fielding worst than the 3rd baseman on the team that wins 25 games. Our horrible defense has been incredibly understated this season. Plays like Dillon's last night (errors that don't get recorded as such), happen every night to the Brewers and cost us wins.

 

It seems to me, we could easily improve our team D by shifting Hall to 3b, Braun to LF and Hart to CF, and then perhaps the Brewers could lead Yost to the playoffs.

[endaround]

To illustrate the badness:

 

Estrada -7

Miller 2

Fielder -15

Weeks -3

Graffanino 1

Hardy 5

Counsell 3

Braun -17

Hart 8

Hall -15

Gross -1

Gwynn -6

Jenkins 3

Mench -7

 

Total=-49

 

So the defense cost the Brewers between 5 and 7 wins versus an average defense.

[markedman5]

Could you explain how to interpret this data?

 

How does -49 translate into 5-7 more losses then average?

 

What does Fielders -17 actually mean?

 

I'm just trying to put this into some context.

 

Thanks

[Fatter than Joey]

To help give a little more depth (FRAA) -- WARP

 

Brewers -43 53.1

Cubs 34 54.6

Cards -4 43.5

Pirates 6 41.5

Nationals 17 39.2

Astros -31 42.6

Marlins -50 46.8

Reds -18 45.7

Padres -7 56.7

Dbacks -5 49.6

Mets 22 61.8

Rockies 63 55.2

 

If you look at our WARP, you can see the Brewers and Cubs are pretty close, with the Cubs a little ahead -- which is about right. The difference is, is that we are playing bottom-feeder defense. Even if we can get to average (0) it should be clear that we would have a few more wins than the Cubs right about now.

 

The defense that Lee and Ramirez bring to the game, make them better players than Fielder and Braun.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Only thing I want to point out here is that BP's fielding stats (FRAA) are generally regarded by most SABR types as the least reliable of the advanced fielding metrics. Maybe that has something to do with the black box methodology through which they are derived, but that seems to be the concensus view as far as I can tell. It's nice that they make them available throughout the season and all, but that doesn't mean they measure anything terribly accurately.

 

On the other hand, THT's revised zone rating isn't any friendlier to these two. Weeks is third to last among NL 2b and Braun is dead last among NL 3b. I'm anxious to see how they fare in the really good plus/minus systems (Dewan's especially), but as far as I know those are not available mid-season.

 

My current attitude towards objective measurement of fielding is that if all the metrics agree a player is bad, it's pretty safe to say that player is indeed bad, whatever scouts and gold glove voters might think (cough-Jeter-cough), but that we really don't have any decent idea exactly how many runs or wins anybody's fielding adds or subtracts. It seems very likely that all of the advanced metrics will say that Weeks was at least a below average if not a bad fielder this year and that Braun was bad if not downright awful. Definately something to be concerned about.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Oh yeah, and THT's got Fielder as the second worst 1b in the NL, ahead of only SteakGrowsOnDmitri Young.

[Fatter than Joey]

How does -49 translate into 5-7 more losses then average?

 

-49 is (Runs above average) -- which means an average player (or team) would save the Brewers 49 runs, and basically 8-10 runs equals a win, so depending on how close your games are 49 runs will mean a net loss of 5-7 games.

 

What does Fielders -17 actually mean?

 

It means he gives up 17 more runs than an average fielding 1b. -- so Fielder by himself has cost the Brewers ~2 runs on the field.

 

Only thing I want to point out here is that BP's fielding stats (FRAA) are generally regarded by most SABR types as the least reliable of the advanced fielding metrics.

 

Agreed -- however, I think they are applicable in broad strokes, sort of like our grading system in schools -- We can say A>B when in reality the difference may be 89.5 vs. 89.4, but A>F. It doesn't matter if the A is a 89.5 or a 99.9, or if the F is a 59.4 or a 0.0. That is to say -- we are not debating the shades of good or bad, rather, one is good and the other is bad.

 

I think when the smoke clears, you will be able to see with fielding metrics, and probably some pitching metrics that we left a non-trivial amount of games on the table because of shoddy glovework.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I think when the smoke clears, you will be able to see with fielding metrics, and probably some pitching metrics that we left a non-trivial amount of games on the table because of shoddy glovework.

 

100% agree with that. I'm just not sure that we're in a position to adequately divvy the blame up at this juncture. It does seem likely that Braun, Weeks, and Fielder were a good chunk of the problem. Estrada too, but all the advanced metrics are terrible at measuring catcher defense, so who knows when we'll be able to say how many runs he cost this team behind the plate.

[markedman5]

"It means he gives up 17 more runs than an average fielding 1b. -- so Fielder by himself has cost the Brewers ~2 runs on the field."

 

 

Joey

 

You meant that Fielder's defense has cost the brewers 2 wins not 2 runs correct?

 

My question is what is the solution to this problem? We aren't going to trade Fielder, Braun or Weeks are we?

 

Getting rid of Estrada would help but it seems like we are married to guys who are the worst offenders.

 

I wonder if Melvin and Yost even take this stuff into consideration when putting a roster together?

 

Is it possible to win with a defense this bad?

 

My guess is it is but we would have to hit like the 27 Yankees or have a staff full of high strikeout low walk pitchers....not exactly easy to find.

 

Man this is depressing.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Is it possible to win with a defense this bad?

 

My guess is it is but we would have to hit like the 27 Yankees or have a staff full of high strikeout low walk pitchers....not exactly easy to find.

 

1) There's no guarantee that the defense remains this bad. Weeks has shown some improvement both visually and in most of these metrics (most of them had him as a Braun-level butcher his first couple of years, which corresponds pretty well with what my eyes told me, and offers hope for Braun - besides, one season isn't nearly enough data to dismiss his fielding potential even if all the metrics end up agreeing he was lousy this year).

 

2) We might be able to hit something like the 27 Yankees if Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, and Hardy all show normal development arcs, peaking ages 25-29.

 

3) High K, Low BB is absolutely the correct approach to building a pitching staff in front of this sort of team. It probably is the correct approach in front of any sort of team. Somebody tell Melvin before he trades away any more Will Inmans.

 

So buck up, all hope is not lost. And check out the thread about Fielder being in "esteemed company" for more good vibes.

[logan82]

finding coaches that actually put their players in proper defensive alignments/positioning - the Brewers employ weird shifts to far too many players, and seem out of position far too much for their scouting system to be working properly....part of that is probably pitchers missing their spots or pitching away from the defensive shifts. I've seen that a few too many times this year also, when the OF is shifted for a righty to go the other way, and the pitcher's working him consistently inside.

 

They are playing the percentages when they shift. Playing to stop 20 hits vs 4 hits. It looks horrible when it doesn't work, but when it does work will go largley unnoticed.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Although we know management's unwillingness to move position players to a new spot, for the heck of it, what do you think would be Bill Hall's WARP at 3B and Ryan Braun's in left (what is at least league average?) With those numbers for Hall and Braun, what would that do to our team WARP? Considering we can outslug many teams, this has to be something that is definitely considered.

 

And yes, I think the offense that our catchers spot gives us isn't as needed as I thought it was in the beginning of the season. I would love a lockdown, "gun em out" .240/.300/.375 ish young defensive stud behind the plate to control the running games of the opponents. A 9% throw out rate of opposing baserunners CANNOT happen next year. Johnny wasn't this bad in his career, but I wonder if his years are catching up to him. But where do you find that great defensive catcher that can hit a great deal better than Chad Moeller (who had no defensive skills)?

[Fatter than Joey]

You meant that Fielder's defense has cost the brewers 2 wins not 2 runs correct?

 

According to this metric -- (roughly speaking) Yes, 2wins.

 

My question is what is the solution to this problem? We aren't going to trade Fielder, Braun or Weeks are we?

 

I hope not -- there are a few solutions (potential) -- Move Braun to LF for one would help out. They are all young players

hopefully they can improve -- Braun and Prince have consistently produced more offense than their defensive WOAHS, but

when a guy like Weeks struggles at the plate, it has a pretty bad effect, the other solution would be to get our pitchers

to get way more Ks and less pesky GBs for our fielders to deal with http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I wonder if Melvin and Yost even take this stuff into consideration when putting a roster together?

 

I hope so -- Yost I am sure is looking at a menu, a poptart wrapper or something entirely unrelated. I think Melvin's philosophy is to bank on the "kids improving".

I would rather acknowledge they are bad fielders, and shift them around to minimize their exposure.

 

I think Prince's WOAHS are sort of compounded as well. He is never going to be Derrek Lee, but he doesn't help his IF out very much digging out throws. However,

if he gets better throws, then everybody improves.

 

Is it possible to win with a defense this bad?

 

It seems like the Brewers are going to be over .500 so yes, however, it certainly is a bugaboo that is keeping us out of the playoffs.

 

My guess is it is but we would have to hit like the 27 Yankees or have a staff full of high strikeout low walk pitchers....not exactly easy to find.

 

I am 100% onboard with this sol'n.

 

Man this is depressing.

 

Well -- I don't think the point is to start depressing people -- but I think what may happen is people will start to blame guys like Bush/Suppan/Vargas for our WOAHS, and then some other pitchers are inserted into the rotation, and then they mystically "underperform" like their predecessors. Suppan pitched well last night -- he still got tagged with some ER's that he shouldn't have gotten.

 

Our pitchers are not super or anything, but our D is not helping any of them out at all.

[kgbaseball]

3) High K, Low BB is absolutely the correct approach to building a pitching staff in front of this sort of team. It probably is the correct approach in front of any sort of team. Somebody tell Melvin before he trades away any more Will Inmans.

I completely agree with the high K/low BB theory for this team. I think that's what Melvin and Co. has been trying to do (Rogers, Jones, Yo), but as you can see, 2 of those 3 guys have had major arm problems, but they are all high strikeout pitchers.

 

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Although we know management's unwillingness to move position players to a new spot, for the heck of it, what do you think would be Bill Hall's WARP at 3B and Ryan Braun's in left (what is at least league average?) With those numbers for Hall and Braun, what would that do to our team WARP? Considering we can outslug many teams, this has to be something that is definitely considered.

 

And yes, I think the offense that our catchers spot gives us isn't as needed as I thought it was in the beginning of the season. I would love a lockdown, "gun em out" .240/.300/.375 ish young defensive stud behind the plate to control the running games of the opponents. A 9% throw out rate of opposing baserunners CANNOT happen next year. Johnny wasn't this bad in his career, but I wonder if his years are catching up to him. But where do you find that great defensive catcher that can hit a great deal better than Chad Moeller (who had no defensive skills)?

 

There's a pretty good empirical basis for guessing what Hall's fielding at 3B would be like: Hall's previous seasons when he played 3B. For his career he is +2 FRAA as a 3b, +3 as a SS, and (oddly) -11 as a 2B. There's at least a half season's worth of games to each of those samples. Again, I don't really like BP's fielding stats, but I don't have quick access to any of the better ones here at work. How much he might've declined since he put up those numbers is also tough to gauge - a whole season in the outfield probably didn't do him any favors, and his last year in the infield was his worst FRAA year anyway (-8), but I don't think it would be foolishly optimistic to hope for league average fielding out of Hall at 3B.

 

It's pretty easy to be a league average LF (after all, that's where the Adam Dunns of the world get stuck to minimize the damage they can do). Braun is a good athlete, so he might even be a plus fielder out there. That said, I doubt the FO will seriously consider moving Braun off 3B until he's had at least one more season to prove he can't hack it.

 

As far as catching goes, Cap'n Lou might reasonably be expected to put up something like .230/.310/.360, but I don't know if anybody would label him a "defensive stud". Still might be better than Estrada overall, and a heckuva lot cheaper.

[endaround]

I don't really love BP's stats, but since they are the easiest to transfer to wins and are always available they have some really good points. However, I think they just do a probablistic measure of balls hit into zones which means the shift hurts Fielder and Hardy's defensive numbers while helping Weeks'. BP has Fielder goign from bad to atrocious since last year and my guess that has more to do with Weeks playing 1/2 way bettwen first and second and being responsible for more of Fiedler's zone.

 

As to how this affects pitchers, look at Jeff Suppan. His ERA this year is the highest its been since 2002 when in the AL. But if you look at Suppan's FIP, its the best of his career. Suppan has pitched his career this year but the defense makes it look like one of his worst.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

As to how this affects pitchers, look at Jeff Suppan. His ERA this year is the highest its been since 2002 when in the AL. But if you look at Suppan's FIP, its the best of his career. Suppan has pitched his career this year but the defense makes it look like one of his worst.

 

It's basically the same story with Capuano and Bush. What scares me most is that in terms of assembling a high K/ low BB pitching staff, we're basically already there. 3rd in NL in Ks and 4th in BB rate. And it still wasn't good enough for this team to be any good at run prevention (9th in NL in fewest RA).

[kgbaseball]

I brought that up about Capuano in the "Forget Capuano, Bring in Yo" thread. Cappy's numbers haven't been that bad at all; he's had a big rise in hits/9, and I attribute that largely to a porous defense. It's interesting to think where the team would be if they had an average defense playing behind the pitchers.