Sheets having a down year? (Latest: Is Sheets worth another big deal?)

[jason21nl]

endaround[/b]]Capuano has been just as injured as Sheets. Parra has been injured. Vargas just came back from the DL.

 

perhaps you just choose not to read my whole post. I clearly said we have had some pitchers hurt this year. However, no other pitcher has left the mound more than sheets. Plus no other pitcher on the team has as much impact on the Brewers as Sheets. He is the one guy that we can't afford to go down in the rotation. Maybe the injury isn't anything, maybe it is, I'm just saying, the last few years he has left or missed a lot of games due to some sort of injury. Every time Sheets gets hurt, the injury prone topic comes up. Is, or is he not. Its sorta like the Yost topic, people will defend Sheets til no end just like people will defend Yost to no end. I love Sheets, he is an amazing pitcher, but to say that he hasn't been injury prone the last few years is kinda absurd, IMO.

[gregmag]

The tricky thing is keeping two issues separate. Is it fair to be frustrated with Sheets' missed time over these past few years, to claim he hasn't lived up to his contract, maybe to be annoyed that he hasn't been able to avoid the injuries he has had? Sure, it's fair; I definitely agree with the first statement, go back and forth on the second, relative to other big pitching contracts, and have no basis to opine on the third.

 

But will be have a lot of injuries over his next contract? That strikes me as a really, really tough question, and frustration about the present doesn't help to answer it. If somebody can explain what has caused Sheets' injuries, that is hugely relevant; but without that explanation, we're left scratching our heads and taking an expensive guess. Pitchers are injury risks if they've hurt their arms. Ben hasn't. You can even make an argument that he's a very good injury risk going forward, because he has missed quite a bit of time for non-arm-related reasons.

 

Greg.

[logan82]

Capuano missed I believe half of the first season he was with us due to injury.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/team/player_career.jsp?player_id=425626&y=2004

[brewmann04]

Is He worth another big Deal or is he too Injury Prone for a long term deal.

[bacon06]

Its getting harder and harder to justify another big deal when he can't stay on the mound for more than a month at a time. The Brewers may be better served spending their money to try and lock up some of the young talent than risking it on Sheets. Next year will hopefully give a better idea of the best route to take.

[rluzinski]

Signing any 30 year old pitcher to a long term contract is a huge risk. I'd be fine letting Sheets walk and taking the draft picks. He's going to be too expensive.

[pabrewerfan]

The kid is an elite pitcher. I would like to see them sign him to a 4-5 year deal regardless of his injuries at this point.

[PaulRigdon]

What makes him an elite pitcher?

 

I say sign him long term for the right price, otherwise let him walk. Yo is already a better pitcher than sheets at 21.

[logan82]

I think he is getting to that free agent age where I don't like to sign players long term anymore. I like Sheets and would like to see him stay, but He is going to tie up to much money and even with record ticket sales we can't afford to make a mistake of that size.

[PlayerHader]

4 yrs. 42 million take it or leave it. I think he'll leave it.

[sbrylski]

This recent hamstring injury is what has turned me, and I don't think its just emotion talking. I've been a huge supporter of doing whatever it takes to resign Sheets, not anymore. I'd be fine with whatever they do with him - let walk, trade, or resign.

[TheBrewer]

I use to be a big Sheets fan, had him in my keeper fantasy league, thought each season since 04' he would come back past injuries and really stick it to other teams.. but injury after injury, I use to say well he's not injury prone, well I think he is now.. even if there not related to one another, its still another injury. Yes his value is down in my league because he doesn't K as much, but in real life as long as you keep your ERA etc down, I don't think it's a big deal to get the K's, but I will say that he seemed more sharp in years past when he wasn't pitching to contact like this season. It seems like teams are getting more hits this season against him, maybe because there putting it into play and it's finding a hole, hence pitching to contact.. idk

 

2yr /20 million, team option for a 3rd year, make it incentive laden

[danzig6767]

Anything over three years 13-14 per,i'd let him walk.I guess i'd be fine with three years and a fourth being some sort of mutual option or option that vest by innings pitched the first three years.

 

Probably a non-issue though.My guess is the team will be reluctant to give an extension prior to next season,partly over injury concerns.On the flip side,if Ben can stay healthy next year,he'd likely price himself way out of our ability to keep him.

 

I just have a hard time envisioning a scenario of Sheets getting an extension.

[clancyphile]

Actually, I'd go for three years and $30 million, with a club option for three more years at $45 million that would automatically vest if Sheets makes at least 30 starts each of the first three years. A player option for one year at eight million would also be there as well.

[Ennder]

I'd wait and see what kind of shape he shows up in next year and then probably offer 3ish years at $13-$14 a year or slightly more with incentives for games started etc. Thinking he's going to sign for $10 a year is a joke, thats what guys like Meche make.

[twobrewers]

As far as I can tell...

 

If we offer Sheets a long term deal and he signs it - Sheets, himself, must have reservation about his health.

 

If we offer him a short term deal and he turns it down - Sheets must feel he can prove himself healthy and is worth more.

 

So I don't see anyway we can find a middle ground where signing him is a good idea. Any offer we would throw at him would be well below market for a pitcher of his caliber to take into effect his injury history. And if Sheets is willing to sign a deal like that....Well, then I doubt he will ever been healthy.

 

Let him pitch next year. If by miracle he stays health - then you can start to think about signing him long term. If not, let him go and take the picks.

[PlayerHader]

And Suppan, too. Cuz they've made 30+ starts the past several years. (I do think Soup is overpaid)

[JohnBriggs12]

I would be less upset with Sheets if he hurt his arm.

 

The guy can't be counted on. Period. The stuff that's kept him out tells me he's not a good enough athletically to handle the load of a major league starting pitcher. As he gets into his 30's the little muscle tweaks etc. will just get more frequent.

 

I'd trade him this offseason and look for a catcher and a young SP in return.

[brewmann04]

I agree maybe we offer him a 2 year deal but would be scared to offer him any long term deal at this point.

[bucksman4]

No more than a 2 year offer, I agree. If he was a consistently healthy pitcher with a track record of 200+ IP seasons, I'd extend it. This organization can't be handcuffed by 3-4 more seasons of having an injury-prone ace.

 

If you get a good offer this off-season, I'd look into trading him if I were Doug Melvin. Get a few nice, young arms for him.

[Bring Back the Stein]

A right-handed pitcher who manages to hurt his flipping LEFT leg in the midst of a pennant race, after multiple other odd injuries over a much-hyped career? Yes, lets just suck up some more folksy explanations at which we can chuckle and then hand him a pile of money for the 18 starts that he'll average. Time has told. He is a wussy. But don't say that out loud, because he's got thousands of apologists.

I have an idea: If all of them promise to buy season tickets, sign a pledge that says that his stick-to-itiveness, or his goofiness, or his bursts of promise are enough to justify tethering a small-market team to a death-ship kind of contract, then, hell, why not?

[lukevan]

I'd sign him for 4 years / $60 million in a heartbeat.

 

Gallardo could be our ace by next season, but I think we need to keep as much good pitching as we can. Are you comfortable with Gallardo/Capuano/Suppan/Bush/Villanueva as a playoff contending rotation?

[rluzinski]

Let's assume that Sheets can only be counted on to pitch for about 75% of the season. That works out to about 160 innings a year. What is a pitcher who can give you about a 3.75 ERA worth on the open market a year? $15 mil, easy That still makes Sheets worth $11 mil, easy. IMO, any deal would have to start at 3 years, $33 mil to have even a small chacne of being accepted.

[JJHardy7]

I think the real question is what is his trade value. If his trade value is high in other teams minds, I would pull the trigger this off-season. If it's low, he's not going to get $15 million a year and we might be able to keep him at a lower price. I say no more than 3 years guaranteed (I'd like a 2 year deal, but I don't know if he'd take that).

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

The way I see it, small and mid-market teams probably can't afford high ceiling, low risk veteran aces anymore, so they've got essentially two choices when it comes to investing in veteran pitching:

 

1) Low ceiling, low risk (e.g. Suppan). Someone who shows up for all his starts and is unlikely to be terrible in a whole season worth of them, but whose chances of a Cy Young caliber season are essentially zero.

 

2) High ceiling, high risk (e.g. Sheets). Might give you 20 wins, might give you 20 IP. Anybody's guess.

 

I'd prefer the latter. Particularly if we could somehow give Suppan back, and sign another pitcher of variety two. Most of the HOF-related research I've read suggests that you end up with more "Pennants Added" with a guy whose season over season WARP goes 10-0-10-0 than with a guy whose WARP goes 5-5-5-5. Roll the dice, take your chances, and when they come up craps don't beat yourself up.