Sheets having a down year? (Latest: Is Sheets worth another big deal?)

[DougJones43]

He had 3 straight years where he pitched 216+ innings and made 34 starts. He has had injuries, but none major enough to sugest that at any point he couldn't come out and do that again.

 

The last time he pitched 200+ innings, he was 26-years-old. He's going to be 30 next year, and it certainly looks as though he is not in the same shape he was 4 years ago. I would guess that kind of stuff can have a big impact. Certainly, it is conceivable that he could pitch a full season in the future, but I would say it's not as likely as somebody like Suppan doing it. And like I said, I think that risk factor needs to be considered moving forward with how to approach potentially extending his contract.

[Ennder]

I don't think any injury should be ignored, nor should it be labeled as simply a generic injury. Each has to be analyzed independently, IMO. Would a doctor agree that a bunch of seemingly unrelated injuries suggests an athlete is more prone to injuries in the future? I don't know but I don't think anyone else here does either. I wouldn't think so but it also wouldn't surprise me if studies have been done on that very subject.

To say otherwise would imply that every person is at pretty much at the exact same risk to become injured, get sick, etc. I think we know that isn't the case. Some people's bodies are more easily injured than others. Build, muscle mass, conditioning, genetics all factor in to how easily a human body can be injured, and every individua body is constructed quite differently. Thus, some people are more prone to being injured than others. I don't think we need a doctor to confirm that, and I can't really believe you would disagree or even question that sentiment, would you?

 

Well lets look at the facts. Sheets went 4 straight years without a signifcant injury. The 4th year he was abused a bit throwing 237 IP with a sore back. The next year he gets hurt int he 2nd half wtih an injury that is supposed to take roughly 6-12 months recovery. He tries to come back early and reinjures himself because of poor mechanics compensating for the original injury. This is really 1 injury that was spread out over 2 years.

 

The next year he has a couple minor injuries and a finger injury completely unrelated to the previous injury.

 

I still don't see how that is 'injury prone'. He got hurt once like all pitchers do and then had some little nagging injuries another season which most pitchers go through as well. Seems like he's just a power pitcher to me, they all get hurt at some point.

[homer]

To me, "injury prone" means you are prone to injury. And Sheets has been injured a lot. Would I trade him or not offer an extension because of his injuries? No, but he is injury prone.

[DougJones43]

I still don't see how that is 'injury prone'. He got hurt once like all pitchers do and then had some little nagging injuries another season which most pitchers go through as well. Seems like he's just a power pitcher to me, they all get hurt at some point.

Everybody is probably going to have their own definition of what constitutes being injury-prone, so there's not much point trying to decide whether he is or isn't, as an absolute. I think that injuring your groin, finger, and hamstring (all in about 5 months) is enough "nagging" injuries to cause concern moving forward. If you don't, that's your opinion. When you take into account the previous years (with the vestibular neuritis, and back injury which lead to other injuries and took almost 2 seasons to fully recover from) I also think it is probably above the norm for power pitchers, but that's just a guess and I don't have anyway to prove that.

[DougJones43]

Would I trade him or not offer an extension because of his injuries? No...

 

Wouldn't it affect how much you would pay him, or the length of the contract, or what offers you were willing to match? I think I'd be willing to pay him a lot more to keep him on the team if he'd stayed relatively healthy the past 3 years. I think it's a much bigger monetary risk if you can't be as confident that a guy is going to probably start 30+ games for your team.

[RU Rah Rah]

I think it's somewhat misleading to give Sheets full freight for "24 starts," including last night. He's now exited three games early (after 3, 3.1, and 1 innings) because of injury. Those are "starts" in name only.

 

I still don't understand the argument that, because the injuries are apparently unrelated, he's not really injury-prone. The guy has now missed significant parts of three consecutive seasons because of injury. That's the very definition of injury-prone.

 

In a way, the unrelated, freakish nature of the injuries might even be worse, because they can't really be targeted in advance and prevented. They just pop up randomly -- over and over.

[rluzinski]

Thus, some people are more prone to being injured than others. I don't think we need a doctor to confirm that, and I can't really believe you would disagree or even question that sentiment, would you?

 

You are making the assumption that a person have a grouping of seemingly unrelated injuries is evidence that they aren't unrelated. Maybe Sheets getting dizzy is evidence that he has a higher chance of pulling a hamstring but I would never assume that. Should I also assume that Sheets has lower bone density and is therefore a higher risk for a fracture as well? Should he start getting his prostate checked? I could see getting multiple injuries to the same area of body being evidence of a problem area (bad mechanics or incorrect alignment of joints) but all over the body? What's the connection?

 

I wouldn't dismiss concerns of re injury for any of these injuries, nor am I making assumptions of what these injuries mean going forward. I simply don't know. I would leave that to athletic trainers and doctors.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's come out of two games this year for muscle tweaks, one for a blistered finger, one for partial tear in his finger.

 

Can he be counted on when he's needed? Sadly the answer is no.

 

Still after next year, he will be able to command a multi year deal. Sure the dollars will be somewhat lesser because of all his little hurts, but it will be a big number nevetheless.

 

Should the Brewers ante up to pay a guy who's not been there for them when they needed him? I tended to think they should until last night. Going down like that in the most crucial two weeks of the past 25 years of the franchise doesn't sit well with me. If it were his arm, I could understand. Pitchers put tremendous stress on arms and are always vulnerable to injury. But his hamstring throwing warmup pitches? If he's so unathletic that throwing warmup pitches damages his body, then he's not worth the investment.

 

Reluctently, I'd look to trade him in the offseason for a bona fide catcher and a young pitcher. The first team I call is Seattle who has catching depth.

[Invader3K]

I would tend to agree with the above poster. I wouldn't mind seeing the Sheets extended for a couple more seasons, but to offer him a 5 year deal at 15million per year, like many here have suggested, seems pretty risky right now.

 

Frankly, I think some people here want Sheets to stay so badly simply because he's the first really successful pitcher the Brewers have ever been able to develop, in well, forever.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Adam McCalvy said this morning on WSSP that he wants nothing to do with the statement that Ben Sheets has a cramp. He referred to the Brewers referring Ben's back injury that cost him 2 seasons as intitially a cramp. Obviously this injury isn't going to cost Sheets 2 seasons, but the initial thought of it being a cramp could be way off. Let's hope not.

[bork]

Going down like that in the most crucial two weeks of the past 25 years of the franchise doesn't sit well with me.

Yeah, buck it up like Vuch did in 82, when he pitched with a torn rotator cuff down the stretch. (Can't decide if that should be in blue or not)

[rluzinski]

If a GM signs any 30 year old starting pitcher to a 5 year deal and expects him to pitch 5 consecutive 200+ inning seasons, he'll almost always be wrong. Long term contracts to starting pitchers are a huge risk.

[1992casey]

(Adam McCalvy) referred to the Brewers referring Ben's back injury that cost him 2 seasons as initially a cramp.

No injury cost Ben two seasons, so either Adam was unclear or the explanation lost something in the translation. If this is in reference to Ben's lat, he missed parts of two seasons. Of course, that injury was serious and the impact on the team could have easily been different had it occurred at a different point in the year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't get why people continue to disagree that Sheets is injury prone. Their only argument is that 4 and 5 seasons ago he was a horse and was injury-free. That may be a valid argument if Sheets finds the fountain of youth and goes back to being in his mid-twenties. I root for Sheets to stay healthy and contribute to the team as much as anyone else does, but if we really want to look at the facts, to this point he's come nowhere close to living up to the contract he's been signed to. Not because of ineffective pitching, but due to a series of injuries. Whether they be freak or random or unrelated, the fact is that these injuries have all occurred to Sheets, and he's missed significant time due to them. Part of evaluating a starting pitcher's value is how durable he currently is, and how he projects to be towards the end of a possible contract. Ask the Dodgers about Jason Schmidt and Kevin Brown, the Mets about Pedro, etc. If a team signs a starting pitcher to a big-time deal and he can't consistently take the ball every 5th day, it's a double-whammy. Not only do they lose innings pitched by their ace, they also end up eating that salary that they could otherwise improve their roster with. Small market teams can't afford that risk.

The fact is that the Brewers are going to have to make a very tough decision as to whether they even want to try and resign Sheets - Small to medium market teams can't survive and compete consistently when a large % of their payroll can't pitch every 5 days. The Brewers in particular would be really hamstrung if they resign Sheets to a significant extension, because they'd be taking away dollars that they could otherwise give to their young players as they reach arby and free agency.

[RU Rah Rah]

I know this much: I wouldn't want to have to pull the trigger (or not) on Sheets' next contract. I think the market is going to drive his asking price straight through the roof. Do you just let him go, thinking that it's not worth the risk, given his recent history of nickel-and-dime injuries and his age? Or do you feel the pressure to take the plunge, because he's home-grown and capable of winning a Cy Young? There are huge risks either way. You could let him go and then see him truly fulfill his potential. Or you could re-sign him and watch him limp through five years.

[1992casey]

I don't get why people continue to disagree that Sheets is injury prone.

It seems we're disagreeing on what the term, injury prone, actually means. And I think for the most part, it probably doesn't matter how each of us individually defines it. I'd suggest "reading through" that phrase and respond based on the "meat and potatoes" of a particular message.

 

What's actually relevant is what Ben's injury history might mean moving forward. There are certainly a lot of opinions that can and should be discussed.

 

As far as re-signing him, I think the opinions of any underwriters that will be consulted will be as big a factor as anything.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

If this is in reference to Ben's lat, he missed parts of two seasons.

Yes, that is the correct reference.

[phatmatt1215]

I apologize if this is in the wrong forum, but has anyone heard anything about Ben's hamstring injury that happened Tuesday night?

[RU Rah Rah]

Per the separate thread, he's getting an MRI. So it ain't just a cramp. But nothing too major, one hopes.....

[Ennder]

I don't get why people continue to disagree that Sheets is injury prone. Their only argument is that 4 and 5 seasons ago he was a horse and was injury-free.

 

Well first off he pitched the full season in 2004, that is 3 years ago not 4 or 5. Secondly the injuries in 2005/2006 were 100% completely related, I guess if he hadn't tried to come back and was just out for a full year to some people that would make him less injury prone than the fact it was broken up into two trips to the DL. Coming into this season Sheets had exactly one major injury in his career, to me that isn't injury prone.

 

Now whether the finger injury this season suddenly makes him injury prone or not, to me the fact that it was completely unrelated and a pretty typical pitcher injury makes it not injury prone. The tweaked groin was on a rainy day where a game probably shouldn't have happened, a blister is hardly an injury unless you develop a history of it and we have no clue what the hamstring is just yet.

[jason21nl]

It doesn't matter if its a finger, back, groin, cramp, ear infection, or whatever the injury might be, he keeps missing time due to injuries. For a guy that isn't injury prone, he seems to missing a lot of time due to injuries. I still want him in a Brewers uni though.

[1Badgerfan]

My buddy created this today in light of Ben's injury issues. Perhaps this is the answer.

 

http://i168.photobucket.com/albums/u173/1badgerfan/AceCase.jpg

 

Thanks Jerome for the solution.

[Ennder]

It doesn't matter if its a finger, back, groin, cramp, ear infection, or whatever the injury might be, he keeps missing time due to injuries. For a guy that isn't injury prone, he seems to missing a lot of time due to injuries. I still want him in a Brewers uni though.

 

That makes him a pitcher. Every year 30% of pitchers spend time on the DL and less than 50% make it through a season without missing a start with some nick or bruise.

[jason21nl]

It doesn't matter if its a finger, back, groin, cramp, ear infection, or whatever the injury might be, he keeps missing time due to injuries. For a guy that isn't injury prone, he seems to missing a lot of time due to injuries. I still want him in a Brewers uni though.

That makes him a pitcher. Every year 30% of pitchers spend time on the DL and less than 50% make it through a season without missing a start with some nick or bruise.

 

it does make him a pitcher, you're right. They do get hurt from time to time. We had a couple of pitchers get hurt this year, but nobody cares about those guys. When Sheets leaves the mound due to an injury, everybody is going to go, oh no, not again. No other Brewers pitcher has been hurt as much as Sheets the last few seasons. I guess I'm with the crowd that doesn't understand how you can't call a guy injury prone because all the injuries aren't related. An injury is an injury to me. Sure Sheets has had some freak ones, but they are still injuries where he has missed time.

[endaround]

Capuano has been just as injured as Sheets. Parra has been injured. Vargas just came back from the DL.