Sheets having a down year? (Latest: Is Sheets worth another big deal?)

[JimH5]

Can we ever move beyond arguing semantics? I'm trying to analyze his performance while on the field, not trying to peg the net value of that performance.

 

Okay, then I guess Joe Dillon is having a terrific year.

 

Not to mention its probably a good thing Sheets didn't go a full year since he missed time each of the past 2 years.

 

Maybe Corey Koskie's agent should use that as a negotiating point.

 

--------------------------------------

 

Alright, that's enough snippy little comments from me for now. . .

 

I didn't read Russ' comments that sparked this thread, I just was responding the question if Sheets is having a down year.

 

And you can measure "down year" any way you want to. . .Is it down from your expectations? Yes. Is it down from other top pitchers in the game? Yes.

 

He's pitched in 23 games this year. Listed below are his stat lines, with my "highly developed" rating system, where I grade his performance in each start. . .

 

Apr 2--Great CG, 1 ER (W)

Apr 7--Terrible 6 IP, 5 ER (L)

Apr 12--Terrible 5 IP, 7 ER (L)

Apr 20--Good 7 IP, 2 ER, (ND)

Apr 25--Incomplete. . .Left with a groin strain after 3 IP

May 1--Good 6 IP, 2 ER (W)

May 6--Good 6.1 IP, 2 ER (ND)

May 12--Good 6 IP, 3 ER (W)

May 17--Great 7.2 IP, 2 ER (W)

May 22--Good, left with a blister 6.1 IP, 2 ER (L)

May 29--Okay 6 IP, 3 ER (W)--11 hits allowed

June 3--Great 6 IP, 0 ER (W)

June 9--Great 7 IP, 0 ER (ND)

June 14--Okay 5.2 IP, 3 ER (W)

June 19--Great CG, 2 ER (W)

June 25--Great 6 IP, 1 ER (W)

June 30--Great 8 IP, 4 ER (W), 11 Ks vs. Cubs

July 5--Terrible 6 IP, 5 ER (L)

July 14--Incomplete, Left with sprained finger

August 29--Great 6 IP, 1 ER (W) vs. Cubs

Sept 3--Okay 6 IP, 3 ER (ND)

Sept 9--Bad 6 IP, 5 ER (W)

Sept 14--Terrible 3 IP, 5 ER (L)

 

So he's had 8 starts this year that I consider Great; 5 that I consider Good, 3 that I consider Okay, 1 that was Bad, and 4 that were Terrible. Then there were 2 starts that were incomplete because he left for injury. And then you have to consider the 7 or 8 starts that he missed due to injury.

 

That analysis actually worked out more to Sheets' advantage, in my mind. It seems that the "badness" in his overall stat line was really just dumped on him in a few starts. And it makes me look at W-L records with a little more respect than I otherwise might have.

 

And I just wish the guy would stay healthy. . .

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

If you are trying to morph this into just another, "I don't care what the pitcher has done, if he's winning games he's pitching great" argument, let me know, so that I can extract myself from it.

Yes, I realize that the Win/Loss record isn't relavant in grading a pitcher's year, and your disclaimer "When he's been healthy" isn't really a disclaimer because health is always a factor in determining whether a pitcher is having a down year, but I guess if you want to put it in your terms which in my opinion doesn't tell the real story, then to each is own.

 

Also, Thank you, JimH5 for breaking it down game by game for Sheets. It's hard evidence that Sheets is having an on par year under my parameters, not Russ's.

[Ennder]

So he's had 8 starts this year that I consider Great; 5 that I consider Good, 3 that I consider Okay, 1 that was Bad, and 4 that were Terrible.

 

Now do that for 2004-2006 and I think you'll find he's having a down year.

[rluzinski]

You pretended to start this thread as a response to a comment I made but it's pretty clear that it has nothing to do with my orginal comment. The topic of this thread is ambiguous, anyway. A person could define the phrase "having a down year" any number of ways, just like you can with the term, "ace". We can all pretend to not agree with each other, when in reality, we are all arguing different things. Semantics.

[brettac1]

When your K rate drops 3.5 per game, your BB rate goes up 1.4 per game, and your HR rate also goes up slightly, it is a down year.

 

The thing that's good is that there's a lot of cushion in between the area of the stratosphere where Sheets normally is, and where "bad" pitchers are. I think his control problems are really due to being injured and never 100% this season, hopefully next year he bounces back to his dominant self again. He's still an ace, but he's not the guy he was last year or years prior to it. The really big positive is that he's going to throw about 160 innings if all goes well, which is 50+ more than last season. Still less than we would like him to have, obviously, but that's out of his control.

[jason21nl]

I'm going to preface this be saying, I know going off of wins alone is not a good way to tell how good a pitcher is doing. I know this.

 

Now that being said, its a little funny that Sheets is probably having a down year for his standards, yet he has tied his career high in wins with a good shot of beating that. go figure right. The other year he has 12 wins was in 2004. He should have won 20 games that year.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well now that he's had another injury, this thread could change it's course real fast if he can't get back out on the mound in 5 days.

[logan82]

I would still take 23 starts of Sheets and 11 starts of our 6th pitcher over most of our other pitchers. Like somebody else said, they aren't chronic injuries that would cause concern going forward. They are mostly unrelated freak injuries.

[RU Rah Rah]

I would still take 23 starts of Sheets and 11 starts of our 6th pitcher over most of our other pitchers. Like somebody else said, they aren't chronic injuries that would cause concern going forward. They are mostly unrelated freak injuries.

You're right -- he's probably not going to get Tommy Johned anytime soon. But it's gotten to the point where he's almost comically (or tragically, I can't decide which) unreliable.

 

[tigerbrew]

Well now that he's had another injury, this thread could change it's course real fast if he can't get back out on the mound in 5 days.

Seems like it's just minor hamstring tightness, I expect Sheets back on the mound starting in 2-3 days. I'm beginning to agree that Sheets is injury prone and a wuss. Seems like he's trying to disappear when the team and the fans need him most.

[DougJones43]

Like somebody else said, they aren't chronic injuries that would cause concern going forward. They are mostly unrelated freak injuries.

 

I agree it is encouraging that he hasn't had any structural damage or chronic injuries to his arm. However, I think it has gotten past the point of being able to just write all of these things off as "freak accidents." In the span of two seasons, he's had problems with his back, shoulder, blisters, groin, finger joint, and now had to leave a game with a sore hamstring. I don't want this to become a debate about what it does or doesn't mean to be injury-prone, but there's really no denying the fact that Benny seems to be much less durable than the average pitcher - particulalry over the past few seasons. Even though nothing can be considered "chronic," it's definitely reached the point where it has become a cause for concern in my opinion.

 

 

"They call me Mr. Glass..."

http://img460.imageshack.us/img460/7180/glasssheetssc7.jpg

 

[rluzinski]

Every injury is a concern, certainly. I just don't consider them all equal. Like everyone, I'd rather Sheets never get hurt.

 

FWIW, Jenkins said that he thinks Sheets will be fine and that is seems to have been only a cramp.

[homer]

I wonder if Sheets pulled himself because he was pitching poorly.

[DougJones43]

Every injury is a concern, certainly. I just don't consider them all equal. Like everyone, I'd rather Sheets never get hurt.

 

FWIW, Jenkins said that he thinks Sheets will be fine and that is seems to have been only a cramp.

That would be nice. And it doesn't seem to have damaged us, which is also good. We won the game tonight without him. I'm just saying, moving forward with issues such as how much we should be willing to pay if we'd like to extend Sheets, this stuff can't be ignored any longer. I think it's gotten beyond "freak injuries that aren't cause for future concern," and into the realm of "this stuff is becoming a trend and not an anomoly - it probably needs to be considered."

 

I'm not necessarily concerned about his hamstring moving forward. I am concerned about what he's going to pull/tear/tweek/catch/contract/injure/sprain/twist/strain the next time, when it will happen, and how much time he'll miss because of it.

[iluvlamp]

I wonder if Sheets pulled himself because he was pitching poorly.

I thought the same. It is probably blasphemous to think that but it almost "seemed" like that.

 

[bork]

I think some of it could be related to his conditioning, or lack thereof. But of course that doesn't explain strained fingers or blisters. It does seem like the injury-prone label fits given the random nature of the injuries. Maybe he'll get past it like Jenkins and Molitor did.

It is encouraging that he hasn't had elbow or shoulder problems, but it still raises concerns about signing him to a big extension, unless there are a lot of performace incentives.

[logan82]

I think some of it could be related to his conditioning, or lack thereof. But of course that doesn't explain strained fingers or blisters.

 

I think it is to much playing Halo 2 in the hotels wth his teammates. This will only get worse next week when Halo 3 comes out.

[rluzinski]

I'm just saying, moving forward with issues such as how much we should be willing to pay if we'd like to extend Sheets, this stuff can't be ignored any longer.

 

I don't think any injury should be ignored, nor should it be labeled as simply a generic injury. Each has to be analyzed independently, IMO. Would a doctor agree that a bunch of seemingly unrelated injuries suggests an athlete is more prone to injuries in the future? I don't know but I don't think anyone else here does either. I wouldn't think so but it also wouldn't surprise me if studies have been done on that very subject.

 

I think that any team that might be interested in signing him, including the Brewers, should certainly not just ignore them, that's for sure.

 

I thought the same. It is probably blasphemous to think that but it almost "seemed" like that.

 

Is the theory that Sheets faked an injury to get out of the game? Did I miss something that would suggest that or is this just a blind conspiracy theory? What happened in the first that makes anyone think he was pitching especially bad anyway?

[DuWayne Steurer]

It would be one thing, if it was one injury that was nagging that kept coming back to haunt him, (ala Weeks and his wrist for example) but with Benny, it's one different thing after another. That more than anything really leads down the path to the "injury prone" label.

 

And yes, 23 starts of Sheets is better than 32 of most pitchers, but the fact of the matter is the impact of losing him for those other 11 starts (plus the starts he left early in) can't be overlooked. Ben isn't being paid to be a 23 start pitcher, and the team isn't counting on him to be a 23 start pitcher. He's a 32 start pitcher, and he's not living up to that. This will be the third straight year he's missed significant chunks of time, and a team with a limited payroll really can't afford to have a large percentage of it tied up into a guy who can't at all being counted on to be there.

 

I'm fully aware that any pitcher is an injury risk, more so than position players. But there are guys who are durable (Our own Jeff Suppan being such), and there are guys who continually find their way onto the DL.

 

Everyone's definition of "down year" is going to differ, but this is definately a down year for Benny in that he hasn't been able to stay on the mound down the stretch when the team really needs him to take the ball every 5 days and go 7 strong innings.

[DougJones43]

Maybe he'll get past it like Jenkins and Molitor did.

 

I see a major difference in between Jenkins and Sheets. Jenkins almost always got hurt on some kind of actual freak play. He broke his ankle at 3rd base. He hurt himself in the outfield by diving. Stuff like that. It all seemed like actual bad luck, rather than an issue of durability.

 

Sheets seems to always hurt himself just by throwing normal pitches or warming up. If he was getting hit by line drives or colliding with baserunners, it might be a different story. but the stuff that his been happening to him seems to just be that in some form or another, his body is too fragile to handle the rigors of normal pitching.

[homer]

I

s the theory that Sheets faked an injury to get out of the game? Did I miss something that would suggest that or is this just a blind conspiracy theory? What happened in the first that makes anyone think he was pitching especially bad anyway?

Blind conspiracy. I didn't even watch the game but based on his last two starts, he hasn't been pitching that well. I don't really believe it but it's worth discussing.

[logan82]

He had 3 straight years where he pitched 216+ innings and made 34 starts. He has had injuries, but none major enough to sugest that at any point he couldn't come out and do that again.

[DougJones43]

I don't think any injury should be ignored, nor should it be labeled as simply a generic injury. Each has to be analyzed independently, IMO. Would a doctor agree that a bunch of seemingly unrelated injuries suggests an athlete is more prone to injuries in the future? I don't know but I don't think anyone else here does either. I wouldn't think so but it also wouldn't surprise me if studies have been done on that very subject.

To say otherwise would imply that every person is at pretty much at the exact same risk to become injured, get sick, etc. I think we know that isn't the case. Some people's bodies are more easily injured than others. Build, muscle mass, conditioning, genetics all factor in to how easily a human body can be injured, and every individua body is constructed quite differently. Thus, some people are more prone to being injured than others. I don't think we need a doctor to confirm that, and I can't really believe you would disagree or even question that sentiment, would you?

[DuWayne Steurer]

He had 3 straight years where he pitched 216+ innings and made 34 starts. He has had injuries, but none major enough to sugest that at any point he couldn't come out and do that again.

That was 4-5-and 6 years ago. I don't think it's prudent to say he can do it again until he does.

 

[logan82]

That was in 2002-2004.