Sheets having a down year? (Latest: Is Sheets worth another big deal?)

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

This topic was brought up in the chat room, and I got booted for pursuing the argument, but I'd like to see what your guy's take was on this. Sheets's strikeout numbers are down and his other secondary numbers are down, but he's pitching more to contact and his ERA isn't suffering too much. Yes, he's gotten lot of run support but that has been long overdue.

 

I think the fact that Sheets is going to get about 26 starts this year makes it a successful one. 33 starts would be even better for next year. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Is Sheets really having a down year?

 

 

(added tag --1992)

[brewcrewkid14]

I'd say Sheets is right on par. Although it'd be nice to see that K rate rise next season.

[sbrylski]

I think so, but its still a very good year when he's been in there. His FIP this season is 4.08, worse than his last three seasons of 2.80, 3.49, 2.48. His K rate and BB rate are both worse than his career averages and his K/BB ratio is his worst since 2002.

 

However, I'm not worried about him too much, I'm sure he'll bounce back next season.

[Fatter than Joey]

This topic was brought up in the chat room, and I got booted for pursuing the argument, but I'd like to see what your guy's take was on this.

 

My take is that you should have been booted sooner

[logan82]

I have heard people say that the league has adjusted to him. I think he has pitched long enough so if that was the case we would have seen something like this a while ago. He seems to have a little poorer control this year, but on the whole he is still pitching pretty well.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think the Brewers should offer him 5 years 70 million. It might seem a little low, but Sheets could play for a winning team, and also the same team that gave him a 4 year contract that he didn't quite live up to. He has a lot more to prove in Milwaukee.

[sbrylski]

This topic was brought up in the chat room, and I got booted for pursuing the argument, but I'd like to see what your guy's take was on this.

 

My take is that you should have been booted sooner

I wasn't there, but I'm willing to bet you weren't booted just because you argued Sheets was having a down year...

[brewcrewkid14]

Yeah, I would love to see them sign Sheets to a contract that would end right about the time that Gallardo is due for his payday.

 

I'm in LaLa land thinking about five years of Gallardo and Sheets at the top of that rotation with the type of offense we're going to have in that time span.

 

Get it done!

[Brian the Automator]

If we're to debating booting from the chat room, let's do it in the Issues forum.

 

Let's keep this post on the topic.

[DSFastball55]

I think Sheets is actually having a pretty solid year, when he's been in there. I am concerned about the fact that his pitching style has changed so much. He used to be a strikeout guy who issuedd VERY few walks; now his K/BB ratio is still good but nowhere near where is used to be. I certainly would love to see him back after his contract is up, but I would not give him a significant raise. I say keep him right where he's at as far as salary - he should be willing to do that considering how many starts he's missed due to injury, not to mention he can stay with a team that has the potential to do some serious damage in the next few years. My guess though is that he has a huge year next year in his contract year, and we let him go after next season since his price will be too high to risk on a guy that seems to get hurt a lot.

[RU Rah Rah]

Since July 15, Sheets has pitched one very good game (that masterful August 29 start against the Cubs). His other starts since coming back from injury have been blah, or just downright bad. (He's given up 10 ER in his last 9 IP.)

 

(Actually, I think you could move that date clear back to the end of June. His early July starts, before going on the DL, weren't that hot, either.)

 

So, with the team battling down the stretch for its first playoff berth in 25 years, its number one starter is able to throw one good game in a period of well over two months. I certainly think you can make the argument that that qualifies as a "down" year.

[dadofandrew]

I'd say he's right where you'd expect him, except for his IP. K rate a bit down, but he has not been 100% with his curve much of the year.

[Patrick425]

I am concerned about the fact that his pitching style has changed so much. He used to be a strikeout guy who issuedd VERY few walks; now his K/BB ratio is still good but nowhere near where is used to be.

My thoughts exactly. When I watch him pitch, the first thing I always look at is the pitch speed. When his fastball is topping out in the low 90's, I'm concerned. Remeber opening day? I seem to remember he was hitting 97 late in the game. I don't know if he's done that since.

[rluzinski]

This whole thread is really silly, since it was my comment that inspired this thread and it was misconstrued to begin with(despite my attempts at qualifying the statement). If I want to project future success of a pitcher based on a relatively small sample (less than a season's worth of stats), I don't care about a pitcher's win/loss record, or a very high or low LOB% (left-on-base percentages) or BABIP (batting average of balls in play). I simply look at the stats that are most consistent from year to year, Ks and BBs. The fact of the matter is, Sheets' K rate is way down and his walk rate way up this year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/710_P_season_full_1_20070917.png

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/710_P_season_full_2_20070917.png

We can talk about how other pitchers can do well pitching to contact but hese two stats are why Sheets has been so dominating in the past and why he's not dominating right now. That's not to say he isn't still pitching well but I've come to expect a healthy Sheets to have a sub 3.5 ERA and the present Sheets isn't that kind of pitcher right now.

 

Should we expect that trend to continue? I don't. Sheets' K rate and walk rate weren't very good in April (coming back from injury) but he turned it on after a slow start. He's also been slow to come back from his most recent injury, which really isn't that surprising. Hopefully, he still has enough time to put it back together this year but I'm very confident that he will be good to go next year.

 

When I watch him pitch, the first thing I always look at is the pitch speed. When his fastball is topping out in the low 90's, I'm concerned. Remeber opening day? I seem to remember he was hitting 97 late in the game. I don't know if he's done that since.

 

Sheets has always needed an inning or two to get his velocity up but he only hits 96 or 97 when he wants to (not very often, unless it's an all star game). He usually sits around the 93 or 94 MPH mark. You have to be carefull about reading too much into the readings on TV. They are very innacurate (usually in the OMG, 102 MPH!!! direction).

 

[rluzinski]

Sheets in 2007 VS. 2004 - 2006:

	GS	K/9	BB/9
April	5	3.90	1.50
May	6	6.74	1.93
June/Jul	7	8.77	2.29
Aug/Sep	5	7.10	4.48
04' - 06'	73	9.38	1.22

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I simply look at the stats that are most consistent from year to year, Ks and BBs.

So it's ok to ignore other stats that also factor into the equation just because they are more volitile? With that same logic, you probably think that Chris Capuano is having a good year because his K and BB rates are right on with his career numbers. That is laughable.

[Katuluu]

Russ is talking about predicting future success. Your Capuano comment has nothing to do with his argument.

[1992casey]

That is laughable.

 

Please avoid ad hominem commentary and condescension.

[biedergb]

Chad Moeller was the Robin to Ben's Batman. Ben's biggest years were 2004-2006 when Chad Moeller was here. Now Ben is a mere mortal pitcher.

 

Seriously though wasn't Moeller Ben's specific catcher. So maybe I am on to something.http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif

[Ennder]

Yes I'd say he is having a down year, he just doesn't look as dominating as he did from 2004-2006.

[JimH5]

Yes, he's having a down year.

 

For the 3rd consecutive year, he's missed significant time due to injury.

 

You can cite rate stats all you want, but when a guy misses that much time, then it's a down year.

 

He's good enough that he should be competing for Cy Young awards, and he doesn't merit even a mention, because when other pitchers are out pitching, he's rehabbing.

[rluzinski]

You can cite rate stats all you want, but when a guy misses that much time, then it's a down year.

 

Can we ever move beyond arguing semantics? I'm trying to analyze his performance while on the field, not trying to peg the net value of that performance.

[Ennder]

Not to mention its probably a good thing Sheets didn't go a full year since he missed time each of the past 2 years. The finger injury gave his arm a break which is probably a good thing when looking into the future.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Russ is talking about predicting future success.

I thought we were talking about Sheets having a down year This Year? Now we are talking about future success? I'm very confused.

[rluzinski]

I thought we were talking about Sheets having a down year This Year? Now we are talking about future success? I'm very confused.

 

With repect to the indicators that are the most projectable (Ks and walks), he's having a down year. With respect to win%, he's having a great year. With respect to IP, he's having a below average year. With respect to LOB%, he's having a great year. You can look at whatever you want but since you started this thread based on a comment I made, I'm telling you what I meant by him having a down year. And I even qualified my oringal comment in the chat with "when he has been healthy" to make it clear that I wasn't factoring in playing time.

 

If you are trying to morph this into just another, "I don't care what the pitcher has done, if he's winning games he's pitching great" argument, let me know, so that I can extract myself from it.