Questions, if we don't make the playoffs

[Thurston Fluff]

I guess the biggest question here is how much is Yost responsible for the mid to late season bullpen collapse that cost us the division. If it's mostly on the players you gotta keep Yost. If it's an inability to make the correct moves you gotta dump Yost.

 

The bullpen hasn't been as bad as some make it out to be. For every game they blew later in the season they saved earlier. If the collapse is anyones fault it's the starters for putting so much stress on the pen. If the starters are to blame and the pen is a problem it should be more on Maddux than Yost. After all pitching is his responsibility.

[logan82]

The bullpen hasn't been as bad as some make it out to be. For every game they blew later in the season they saved earlier. If the collapse is anyones fault it's the starters for putting so much stress on the pen. If the starters are to blame and the pen is a problem it should be more on Maddux than Yost. After all pitching is his responsibility.

Yeah they probably did save one for every one they lost. The problem is that the bulpen is supposed to save more than they lose, at least that is my opinion.

[Thurston Fluff]

Yeah they probably did save one for every one they lost. The problem is that the bulpen is supposed to save more than they lose, at least that is my opinion.

 

Perhaps a better way to put it was for every game the bullpen was completely to blame they had one that they single handedly won. The point is there have not been many of either. There was usually some combination of problems that contribute to the loss.

[mikemercury]

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

I'd say it was 100% the right move, if for no other reason then those 2 months gained us a full year of Braun before he hits free agency. Braun was without a doubt one of the 25 best players when camp broke, but we had the vet's to hold the fort down 'till the rookie of the year showed up. I'll gladly trade 2 months of '07 for a full season of 2013 in his "prime". We may have a new owner and a higher payroll, but we're still just a small market team and that just makes good business sense.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

This is tricky but I think it's the right move if you want to win the division. I'm a very greedy fan. I'm not happy with a winning record, I want a playoff birth. I realize that Carlos V, was a Steve Garison like throw in from the Wayne Franklin deal , but I'm sure this franchise hasn't missed the Keith Ginter, Dana Eveland, and Nelson Cruz types that many of the BF nation were upset to see leave for other talent.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

 

I don't see how it's Ned or any manager's fault when bullpens blow 3+ run leads. I've never see anybody praise Ned for sticking Braun in the 3 hole in just his 3rd major league game, when he clearly was ready for such a valuable run producing spot, and many a manager would have left him in the bottom of the order.

 

In short: "In the mustache I trust" Doug Melvin has done an A+ job with this franchise and what he has to work with. Down years by Capuano, Hall and Estrada have hurt this team more then any other factor. I'm sure if we win or finish 2nd in the divison next year's team will be restocked with the best options available and we'll make a run at it '08. Eventhough we have a tougher schedule then the sCrubs, don't count out this year's version quite yet.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

 

Not by much, but there should be a little bit of "give" there.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

No.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

No. As others have pointed out, the team was at 24-10 without Braun. Granted, several were playing over their heads, but I don't think even Braun's bat could have made the team more than a win or maybe 2 better than it already was.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

 

At this point, obviously, it's hard to say, as they may still make it. If they don't, then I will certainly answer yes. It's easy to sit and armchair quarterback on the internet, but..........

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

 

Yes. He was a stopper early in the season when they stopped winning, and he's going to be crucial down the stretch and possibly, in the playoffs. I will feel much better with a Sheets/Yo/Suppan rotation in the playoffs than I would with a Supp/Yo/Bush rotation.

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

 

Too many to count. I know that the board statisticians will point out that the runs scored/against means that the team is right about where it should be, according to the pythagorean theorem. That's fine and well, but the fact of the matter is the Brewers lead the majors in the amount of games lost when leading by 3 or more runs. I know that some of those are attributable to starters, and I know that every team has bullpen problems, but when you lead the majors in "come from ahead losses", that's a MAJOR problem.

[Tbadder]

That is the problem. Throwing away so many big leads. I gotta believe that means that an astute manager could've provided the correct intervention. Losing a one run lead can happen awfully quick, but losing leads greater than 3 suggests that a manager probably stayed too long with said pitcher and may not have had an alternative ready.

[TooLiveBrew]

If the starters are to blame and the pen is a problem it should be more on Maddux than Yost. After all pitching is his responsibility.

 

Partly true. Coaching, guiding, and advising the pitchers is Maddux's responsibility. Using the pitching staff (I'd say correctly...) is Yost's job.

[LouisEly]

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

 

I don't know what that limit is, or where he is at now. I'm not sure they needed him to go 8 innings yesterday when up 6-0. I think 10-15% variance is OK, but not much more than that.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

When I saw in the Minor League report transaction thread headline that those three had been traded (saw that before I found out whom they were traded for), my first reaction was that they had traded for Javier Vasquez like I had advocated. I was disappointed that it was just Linebrink, but like someone else said, when Wise fell apart they needed Linebrink. If he stays he gives them the veteran bullpen presence that they need; if he leaves and they can get a type-A free agent classification for him that will be huge. So I think either way it is not a bad thing. I think we all may have overvalued Inman; we all love him and his attitude, however the connotation I got from San Diego's GM was that he thought the key to the deal was Thatcher. I've seen too many A-ball phenoms flame out to get real excited about him yet.

 

Next year they can pick the best of Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Villanueva, Capuano, and Vargas for the rotation with the other three filling out long relief roles, and considering that all but Sheets are either signed or "Beef 'n Cheddars" (Arby-eligible) through at least 2009, I think they have time to replenish the farm system with pitching prospects. That gives time for Jeffress to advance through the system and see if Jackson, Hammond, Dillard, or Miller can develop into anything, and see if Rogers, Welch, McClendon, Bryson, Seidel, and Annundsen can show anything at AA. They will need to make pitching a priority in the 2008 draft though.

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets?

Yup. But I don't know that I'd want to keep him much past the age of 33.

 

How many games has the bullpen cost them?

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

These two questions are interrelated - see below. First though, considering that outside of Sheets their other four starters at the beginning of the season now have ERAs of 4.73, 5.04, 5.21, and 5.34, I find it hard to pin it squarely on Yost and the bullpen. Certainly Maddux has some culpability here.

 

But here's the funny thing. Let's say a good reliever has an ERA of 3.00 - that means they give up 3 ER for every 9 IP. The question is, is it worse to give up 1 ER in each of 3 innings and have 6 scoreless innings, or is it worse to give up 3 ER in one inning and have 8 scoreless innings? I'd say that it is worse to give up 3 ER in one inning and have 8 scoreless because if you are leading and you give up one ER at worst the game is tied; you still have a chance in extra innings. If you give up 3 ER chances are at best you are tied. So let's look at Turnbow for example - here are the number of runs he's given up in the games in which he has given up runs:

 

2, 1, 4, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 3 (59 scoreless outings out of 73, or 81%)

 

If you look at the games in which he gave up only one run, the Brewers are 4-1; in games in which he has given up more than one run they are 2-7. That seems to support my theory above. Now let's look at the games in which Cordero has given up runs:

 

1, 4, 1, 2, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1 (52 scoreless outings of 61, or 85%)

 

The Brewers record when he gives up one run: 3-0; in games in which he gave up more than one run: 1-5. Again, theory that it is worse to give up 3 runs in one inning and 8 scoreless than one run in each of 3 innings and six scoreless is supported. So the key seems to be avoiding the big innings.

 

So what do I think this means? I think the issues around the bullpen revolve around the manager not recognizing in time that the reliever does not have his best stuff that day and not doing anything about it. One of the best people/performance managing tips I've ever heard was from a friend of mine who said that as a manager you are going to make some bad decisions, but the biggest mistake you can make is not recognizing the bad decisions in time and not doing anything about the bad decisions you have made. This is where Yost has failed. It's not the decisions he has made; it is not recognizing the bad decisions he has made in time and not doing anything about them (keeping a reliever in when he does not have his best stuff, keeping a starter in the starting rotation too long when they are not effective, etc.). This also goes along with the other issue I've had with him - he has a plan, but he does not have a contingency plan. He has a hot middle reliever... but takes him out because he has to go with Turnbow in the 8th and Cordero in the 9th. Then if one of them blows it or is not "on" that day he has no one left to go to. They say your success in life is 20% what happens to you and 80% how you react to it; my issue with Yost is how he reacts to what happens, and I think if he had reacted better/faster and had contingency plans they would have won at least 3-4 more games.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

Doubtful. I don't think they could have done better than 24-10.

 

Now putting in a defensive replacement for Braun in the 7th, only to have his spot come up in the 9th suddenly down by two runs with runners on 2nd and 3rd and having to pinch-hit Rottino... that's a different story. (Think about that - they either pitch to Braun with runners on 2nd and 3rd or they walk Braun and pitch to Fielder with the bases loaded.)

[logan82]

So what do I think this means? I think the issues around the bullpen revolve around the manager not recognizing in time that the reliever does not have his best stuff that day and not doing anything about it. One of the best people/performance managing tips I've ever heard was from a friend of mine who said that as a manager you are going to make some bad decisions, but the biggest mistake you can make is not recognizing the bad decisions in time and not doing anything about the bad decisions you have made. This is where Yost has failed. It's not the decisions he has made; it is not recognizing the bad decisions he has made in time and not doing anything about them (keeping a reliever in when he does not have his best stuff, keeping a starter in the starting rotation too long when they are not effective, etc.). This also goes along with the other issue I've had with him - he has a plan, but he does not have a contingency plan. He has a hot middle reliever... but takes him out because he has to go with Turnbow in the 8th and Cordero in the 9th. Then if one of them blows it or is not "on" that day he has no one left to go to. They say your success in life is 20% what happens to you and 80% how you react to it; my issue with Yost is how he reacts to what happens, and I think if he had reacted better/faster and had contingency plans they would have won at least 3-4 more games.

Let me start by saying that I agree. The problem is who do you put in when there are less than 2 outs in the 9th. Very few managers will trot out their closers before that. If Cordero is going bad, who do you put out there? Closers are not generally going to get yanked until things are to far gone to matter. Outside of Turnbow and Cordero, who do we have that people wouldn't get upset about seeing those guys getting pulled for? Only Shouse and he is a LOOGY. When our top relievers are bad, things get bad in a hurry. They were nearly unstopable in the first half and our bulpen looked great. Now, not so much.

[TooLiveBrew]

EDIT: Nevermind

[pretendastronaut]

This thread seems the more approriate than starting a new thread,

 

How glad are you we didn't win the Gagne race? It sure felt disappointing at the time, and who knows if things would have been different if he came to us, but he blew his 4th game as a Red Sox tonight.

[Thurston Fluff]

Partly true. Coaching, guiding, and advising the pitchers is Maddux's responsibility. Using the pitching staff (I'd say correctly...) is Yost's job.

 

How do you use starters differantly? They are supposed to start the game and give you 6+ innings. Earlier in the year there was plenty of debate about Ned leaving his starter into long. While that was true in one sense how much worse would the bullpen have been in august and how much worse would it be now if he would have used them that extra inning every time one of the starters got pulled after 5 because they couldn't do thier job? Getting shelled early and often means the bullpen has to be used in ways it wasn't meant to be used. NO manager can use the bullpen correctly if the starters aren't giving you enough innings on a regular basis.

I'm perfectly willing to say that Ned could have used the bullpen differantly in certain situations. Every manager could. I don't agree that he is any worse at managing the pen than any other manager in the game. The only real differance is we see every move Ned makes and debate them endlessly. Look at any other message board and you will find the exact same debate going on with every other manager.

If Ned has cost us games ealier then the way he has this team ready to play every day in the stretch run without folding has to go some way in making up some of those games he supposedly lost us. Remember he's managing a team with a core of rookies and 2nd year players agianst a veteran laden team full of high payroll guys managed by someone who makes more than our entire infield. If Ned sucks and the Brewers are in a flatfooted tie with the Cubs what does that make Pinnella? He must be the worst manager ever.

[MHgb]

I also remember several times where we've lost a game that we had (at some point in the game) a 95-99 percent chance of winning according to those win probability charts people tend to post from time to time.

Over the course of 162 game season, this 95-99% chance equates to at least a couple losses in these "extremely improbable chance of losing" games. It happens to all teams.

[Time for a Miller]

LouisEly,

 

I have been thinking about the question you posed a lot regarding relievers and number of scorelss outings vs. blow up innings. It is very interesting to me since Turnbow is probably our closer for next year and I commend you with actually going through and calculating the stats you posted. I've wanted to do that and thank you for taking the time to do it. However, your argument is partially flawed. You think that Yost does not pull the relievers out early enough, but in actuality he has been pulling Turnbow a lot earlier. Turnbow is still responsible for the ducks already on the pond though. Also, as Logan pointed out with regards to Cordero, if he is struggling then you really don't have many options left. Cordero has been able to recover and wiggle of the hook at times too.

[Big Reed]

Braun - I think he was brought up at the right time. it was obvious in Spring training he needed more time to improve on his fielding. On the down side, I would not have started the season with both Council and graffy. I would have traded one of them off.

 

YO's innings. I realize a lot of people are concerned about a pitcher and hsi innings. And everybody points to Wood and prior as being overused and flaming out. neither Wood or prior pitched much las t year and they still became injured this year. the same applies to Sheets. pitching a lot of innings did not result in their injuries this year. perhaps, some pitchers are more prone to injuries than others. perhaps pitching a lot of innings is not really as big of a factor as some people here think it is. Did pitching a lot of innings cause the minor league arm injuries to Gold, Jones, Parra and nuege? or were they injury prone? I think throwing 95 mph pitches causes more injuries than pitching a lot of innings.

 

our relief corpse - never before have i seen so many relief pitchers implode and give up 3-4 runs in an ininng. The best guage of how well or bad our relief pitching was this year would be to look at how many runners in scoring position were allowed to score. I have to believe that stat is probably a record breaker this year.

 

ned's managing. you get what you pay for. he's not the lowest paid manager around. but he's also not close to making joe torre type money. before i get on Yost's case, i'd like to see the names of 4 other managers who are paid less than ned and doing a better job than he has done.

 

sheets: is it time to cut our losses? if the guy was healthy, we'd have a 6 game lead. but when is the gu y ever healthy?

 

hall: a mistake to move him to the OF. a mistake to give him a long contract. should have traded him over the Winter. However, Weeks would not have nmade a better CF. if hall stayed in the infield, he would have played third, and braun would have remained at AAA. The Cubs were smart enough to realize Soriano was a terrible center fielder and moved him to left field. the brewers were not as smart with hall. Unfortunately, it's kind of obvious now hal l is not the brewers' centerfielder of the future. So what do you do with him? his trade value is not what it used to be.

 

trading inman: many people have pointed out Inman really had no future with the brewers despite his ability. very few people have pointed out the brewers will receive two first round picks for losing Linebrink at the end of this year. if you invest one of those first round picks in a college senior pitcher, you'll have somebody who will be pitching at AA in 2008 and will arrive to the majors about the same time Inman will.

 

defense verses catching verses pitching - not sure who to blame. good defense makes pitchers look good. Good game calling by a catcher makes pitchers look good. I have to believe a part of the blame that the pitchers and relievers are getting should be shared by our poor pitch calling and mediocre defense. our defense may not be making a lot of errors, but they are also not making a lot of diving plays either. Their lack of range is also a factor. bottom line- we need to catch more of those line drives rather than letting them bounce first. and we need to call for the right pitch when we have two outs.

 

when we lose, there is a lot of blame to spread around. we wi n as a team. we lose as one as well.

 

changes ? get a true CF. find a starter who can pitch past the 6th inning. cut Yost some slack.