Questions, if we don't make the playoffs

[And That]

We have about a 1 in 3 chance at making the playoffs at this point, so I've been wondering what everybody thinks about some of the "playoff moves" and other things the Brewers have done if it turns out that we don't actually get there.

 

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

[DougJones43]

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

I think careful is the way to go with Gallardo. If he goes 5-10 innings over his "limit," I can live with that. Not much more though.

 

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

I still don't mind this move. Something needed to be done to try and tighten up the bullpen. More often than not, you have to give up something of value to get a quality reliever. Some people felt Inman had a pretty limited ceiling. Maybe Melvin was one of those people. Also, the chances of re-signing Cordero are slim. Maybe we'll have the inside track to signing Linebrink for next year, and he could be a good guy for a more solidified bullpen next year, and perhaps beyond.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

I don't think so. I really think that situation was handled perfectly. I don't think we would have started much better than 24-10, even with Braun. The team played without his bat for almost 2 months, and then he was called up when we needed a shot in the arm for our offense. He had about 6 weeks to work on ironing a few things out before starting his career in the show, and he hasn't disappointed (with the bat at least). Coulnd't have worked out better, IMO.

 

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

I think so. But then again, I've been told I hate Ned with the fury of a thousand suns. Apparently, it's a personal hatred that knows no bounds. So you definitely need to take that into consideration when listening to my opinion.

 

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

I think the Brewers would be in a world of pain without Benny's 23 starts this season.

 

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

That's a tough one. If I had to guess, I'd have said slightly more than the average bullpen. Cordero has been amazing, and Shouse has exceeded expectations. Aquino has the worst WPA on the Brewers at -1.42. He has managed to do that much damage in a mere 11 appearances. Pretty impressive, if you ask me.

Edit: Fangraphs estimates that the Brewers bullpen currently has a cumulative WPA value of +2.35. Shouse, Cordero, and Turnbow are responsible for a majority of that. Take it for what it's worth, but kind of a surprising stat.

[thablingster]

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

 

Yes. If we don't make the post-season he probably will be only extended past his limit by at most ~20 innings, which may not be as significant as Yo tends to have many low-stress innings as compared to his high-stress innings.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

If we keep him past this season, yes. If not, no.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

I don't think it harmed the team all that much. Counselnino was a black hole offensively, but that infield defense would have been horrendous had Braun been up early in the year.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

 

Yes. See Greg Aquino x 2. Kevin Mench vs. Ryan Dempster. Grant Balfour and Chris Spurling in high leverage situations. There are so many more I could mention but won't.

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

 

Yes. Sheets is a #1 when completely healthy, which may not be a lot, but considering the collapse of Capuano and had we not signed Suppan, we wouldn't even have sniffed the playoff chase in the weak NL Central without Sheets.

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

 

Probably between 5 to 10. Wow, that's sad.

[logan82]

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

Not by much.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

Something had to be done. I am not sure where even Inman would fit in in the future of the Brewers. We have several very young quality arms right now. By the time they are gone we should be able to aquire more through trades or the draft..

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

Maybe, but I believe that he was injured for at least part of the time in AAA this year. I seem to remember him being on the AAA DL early in May and an elbow injury in Spring Training.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

All managers cost their teams games. Some more, some less. I don't watch any other managers close enough to know if he is any worse than anybody else. The players like him and we haven't heard many complaints about playing time, beyond Hall saying he wants to help the team win, after Jenkins and Mench basically started Spring Training saying they both should be starters.

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

I will take 23 starts of Sheets and our top fill in over most of the other pitchers in our rotation. Nobody, not even Gallardo, has the stuff Sheets does. Nobody else who takes the mound makes me believe they can go for more than 6 innings. Seets hasn't lately, but when he pitches you believe he can go the distance in any game.

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

Tough to say. More than a few, that's for sure.

[Time for a Miller]

I disaggree with your assesment of the last two questions thablinghster. You sight that Ned Yost has cost the Brewers a playoff spot with all his "incorrect" moves. Doug Melvin and Mark Attinasio at least publicly disaggree with you as well. Rather then argue this on a point by point basis, which seems to be the majority of what happens on BF.net, I will simply state that even the worst in-game managing performance of all time cost a team 5 wins whereas the best in-game managing performance picked up 1/2 of a win for a team as estimated by Baseball behind the numbers. To site one example of why thinking Ned Yost has cost this team a lot of games is flawed consider the Kevin Mench vs. Ryan Dempster example. I also did not aggree with Yost leaving Mench in there instead of pinch hitting.

 

Let's look at this sitiuation more closely by looking at Counsell, Jenkins, and Mench

 

OBP vs. righties 2007

Mench .264

Jenkins .329

Counsell .341

 

So there is only a 7.7% chance that Counsell is going to have success in that situation as opposed to Mench. This does not factor in the "flow of the game." The effect that this plays is laregly debatable, however. Many people who think Yost has cost this team a bunch of games seems to feel that a different player would have succeeded when this is largely incorrect. A 7% increase is actually quite large in baseball. If Yost made this "incorrect" decision every game the entire season (largely impossible since decisions like this don't occur that often) it would cost the brewers 12 wins.

 

Let's expand this arguement however since Mench's sample size agains righties this year is severly limited.

 

OBP vs. righties last 3 years

 

Mench .305

Jenkins .366

Counsell .340

 

If you look at it in this light you would want Jenkins batting instead of Counsell, which is not consitent. There is a 6.1% chance Jenkins gets a on base when Mench would not meaning if this situation happened in every game the Brewers would win 10 more games over the entire year. Again this does not include mitigating factors.

 

Now let's get crazy and say this situation happens in 10 games over the course of the season and Yost makes this "incorrect" move every single time. That would result in less then one loss over the course of the entire season.

 

Now let's spin this move so it makes Ned Yost's decision to leave Mench in the game appear smart, which it may have been.

 

OBP as a pinch hitter over last 3-years

 

Jenkins .278

Counsell .323

 

Menches OBP last 3-years

vs. pitcher 1st AB in game .324

 

There might be something to the "flow of the game" mumbo jumbo.

 

Baseball can not be viewed in black and white. When a manager makes a move the increase in success is usually very slight. If he brings in a PH they probably would have failed as well. I do not want this to turn into an argument over this specific move. i.e. Dempster was throwing balls and Mench is aggressive, etc. etc. I said I did not aggree with Yost on this particular move already. I was just trying to illustrate that even if Yost is screwing up terribly, which he is not, the amount of games a manager can cost a team is small.

 

I also do not aggree with your assessment on the second point thablingster, that the bullpen has cost this team between 5 to 10 wins and this is "sad." I think our bullpen is adequate to very good, and has probably cost us more then 10 wins. Over the course of a 162 game season no team is going to go undefeated and the best teams are going to lose at least 65 games. This means that somebody is not doing there job. The bullpen has cost us games, but you seem to be demanding perfection, which is unattainable.

 

The sad thing is that despite the fact that Ned Yost is doing a fine job managing a young team that should not be sniffing the post-season yet, it is impossible to convince most people otherwise. A manager does not have a significant impact on the season since baseball is a game of very slight differences between most players. It seems many people want to micro-analyze situations and when there is only a 30% chance of success your going to fail 70% of the time. Ned Yost does a good job of keeping a bunch of young guys level headed with the help of some veteran players.

 

How bout we start saying Ned Yost is a genius since he made moves like playing Joe Dillon and Craig Counsell today. Or how about Saturday when he brought in Shouse to get Griffey out and then brought in King who struck out Adam Dunn to hold onto the lead. If your thinking oh he got lucky, or oh that is what's suppose to happen, then you are going to be fustrated with any manager and baseball in general.

[Fatter than Joey]

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

 

Nope.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

Nope. I am pissed off that we couldn't have done with Thatcher what SD is currently doing with him. Thatcher has been really solid for SD this year, much better than Linebrink has been for us. I get the feeling that SD had better scouting on Thatcher than we did. SD is getting a lot of praise for phasing out Linebrink and replacing him with Heath Bell. There are the draft picks, and perhaps that will pan out -- but draft picks do not help us make the playoffs.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

Nope. If you like the WARP stat -- Braun's numbers are fairly close to Weeks, who for whatever reason, is having a disappointing season over all. Braun was hurt in ST, so I do not think Braun breaking camp was a realistic option. I think the time in Nashville had a positive impact on Brauns bat & glove, and probably had he spent April+May in Milw., his overall WARP #, might be under Weeks. Furthermore I believe that had Braun broken camp with Milw., he would have rotted on the bench as Yost would have certainly deferred to Graffy+Counsel.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

 

Certainly. Yost is bad at managing. Fans are just starting to notice it as there is more on the line.

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

 

Yes. He got hurt, and that sucks, but his contribution in games he did pitch in, is probably what is allowing to tread water at this point.

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

 

Yost's management thereof has probably cost us 5-7 games.

[jeffy]

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

I don't believe there is a bright line there...that if he pitches X innings he will be just fine for the next 10 years, but if he pitches X+1, he becomes Kerry Wood.

 

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

This is, of course, unknowable. Just about every team will win at least 65 games and also lose at least 65, in a season. The best teams will win around 95 games, 30 more than the minimum. Is a reasonable guess that the manager's net impact is maybe 10% of those 30 or 3 games one way or the other???

 

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

Without Sheets, none of the other issues would even come up because the Brewers would have been out of it long ago.

 

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

Not sure what that means...cost us games compared to what? Leaving every starter in for 9 innings? Compared to having a perfect bullpen that never gives up a hit or a run? Why not ask how many games have we lost because the starter could not go even 6 innings or 7?

[windiv07]

We have about a 1 in 3 chance at making the playoffs at this point, so I've been wondering what everybody thinks about some of the "playoff moves" and other things the Brewers have done if it turns out that we don't actually get there.

This is an excellent thread. Please allow me to rank these in terms of their overall effect on the outcome:

 

First and foremost -

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

Which came first? The tall chicken or the eggs it laid? I watch, listen to, or attend every game (except the weekday games). Stats do not always reveal the game situations addressed by pitching moves. I believe I am being generous in saying that with regard to loss due to pitching, in my opinion, well more than half the time, an avoidable wrong decision was made with regard to relief pitching (either leaving a starter in too long, not long enough, or watching a reliever in trouble clearly in over his head without getting someone up and ready in the bullpen until it was too late) more than half the time. While the pen produced the runs, the onus for those decisions are on the manager. The same holds true for pinch hitting decisions and play-by-play decisions & signals. One only needs examine the W-L record since the All-Star break to see how manager competence shakes out over a 162 game schedule.

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

I think so.. His W-L percentage far exceeds that of the current combined staff. That is a plus.

 

 

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

Great question & observation. This man could be next year's ace and long-term staff leader if he stays healthy (unlike Sheets). Are we asking for another Sheets situation by doing this is the question I ask. Time will tell. What this tells me is that Melvin is not throwing in the towel on this season just yet. Frankly, I already have for the aforementioned reasons which I fell will not change. So if I were the mind of Melvin right now today (and forced to keep Yost), I would save Gallardo for next year.

 

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

Yes & No. To win the division in 2007? Yes. For the future of the franchise? No.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

Statisically? None whatsoever. As a team, the Brewers were playing almost 100% to their potential the first two months of the season. The offense was clicking & the infield was solid with Graffanino in the platoon right up to the moment of Braun's arrival. Weeks' & Hall's combined offensive woes (since mid-June) had more of a negative impact on the lineup than Braun's positive impact over the same timeline. Had Graffanino not been injured, Gross might still be in Nashville. This too had a significant effect on the defense we have seen on the field since.

 

Thank you for providing the opportunity for a preliminary autopsy of the 2007 season. The Brewers roster will have to play like they did in May to overcome the day-to-day fundamental mistakes made from the dugout and win this division and . I hope they have it in them, but I am trying to be realistic now.

[lukevan]

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

 

Were the Brewers ever considering not keeping him?

 

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

 

Well he hasn't gone past it yet, and if we don't make the playoffs, he won't go significantly over. I think if anyone can take on a little extra load it is Gallardo.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

Tough to answer until a couple more seasons have gone by, but I like that Melvin got good relief help. Linebrink has been about as good as expected.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

It was nice having solid defense at that point in the season with JJ and Prince carrying the offense.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

 

I'd lay the blame mostly on the starting pitching during our second half swoon and...

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

 

... on the bullpen giving up some ample leads. Every bullpen is going to blow leads, but ours managed to blow some big ones. If we had held 5 of those 16 3-run leads we blew, we'd be comfortably in first by 4 games. Hard to blame Ned for the bullpen blowing big leads. I can understand not liking many of his moves this season, I've yelled thru my television at him several times, but as was said, there's no way his moves directly cost us anything more than a couple games IMO.

 

Not pinch-hitting for Mench against Dempster didn't directly cost us the game, as Jenkins in that situation (by the numbers) would succeed less than 1 out of 10 times more than Mench. I'm not saying that it wouldn't have been the right move, but I just don't think it's a decision that we can point to and say "that cost us a win." Not to mention, managers are "allowed" to go against numbers when they feel it is the right situation ie. if Jenkins was under the weather or not swinging all that well etc...

 

I'm not on the pro-Yost bandwagon (as if there were one), but a change in managers can have negative effects, and Yost knows our players and the players know him.

[homer]

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

Nope. If you like the WARP stat -- Braun's numbers are fairly close to Weeks, who for whatever reason, is having a disappointing season over all. Braun was hurt in ST, so I do not think Braun breaking camp was a realistic option. I think the time in Nashville had a positive impact on Brauns bat & glove, and probably had he spent April+May in Milw., his overall WARP #, might be under Weeks.

But WARP is wins above replacement player. How do we know that the Counsellino combo wasn't AT replacement level (i.e. WARP = 0)?Even Weeks was better than a replacement level player.

[endaround]

I think you're missing the big decision that had the most negative impact on the Brewers, moving Hall to the outfield. Basically if caused the Brewers to have three of the worst defenders at their position playing at the same time. Hall wasn't a great defensive infielder, but he was average, a level Braun and Weeks will likely never reach. If Hall isn't moved, you have Hart in center meaning less Yost sitting Hart for Mench's "hot" hand. You have a Gross/Clark platoon meaning no chance for Gwynn to make the team and getting hot for three games and killing the offense for the next month.

[thablingster]

I also do not aggree with your assessment on the second point thablingster, that the bullpen has cost this team between 5 to 10 wins and this is "sad." I think our bullpen is adequate to very good, and has probably cost us more then 10 wins. Over the course of a 162 game season no team is going to go undefeated and the best teams are going to lose at least 65 games. This means that somebody is not doing there job. The bullpen has cost us games, but you seem to be demanding perfection, which is unattainable.

I'm not demanding perfection with the bullpen, if I were any one or two run loss would be unacceptable, which just isn't the case. I was mostly thinking of all the 3+ run lead games we've blown via the bullpen and remembering the several times people here have said that statistically any pitcher should be able to be trusted with a 3 or 4 run lead for one inning. I also remember several times where we've lost a game that we had (at some point in the game) a 95-99 percent chance of winning according to those win probability charts people tend to post from time to time. I realize that every bullpen gives up one or two runs now and again and has really bad outings as well in which games can be won or lost, but as far as the question all I was doing was answering the question.

As far as your Yost points, you're right a lot of the moves a manager could make don't have huge percentage swings associated with them, but as you also said there would be between a 6 and 8 percent chance (which is significant) that if either Jenkins or Counsell batted that player would have had more success than Mench (I only cite that because that's the only scenario you broke down statistically). To me, one thing I'd like the manager to do more often than not is to play the matchup which gives his team the best chance to win. In the Mench example, Mench is the guy who least gives us the best chance to win according to the statistics. Obviously there is still well over a 70% chance that whoever batted would have failed, but at that point in the game I'd take the higher chance of success over the lower chance almost always.

 

And having cited what I'd like to see from a manager, it only makes sense that in the examples I cited, Ned did not play the matchup which would give us the best chance to win. In some ways I have appreciated Ned's ability to motivate players who aren't as good or don't have as many physical tools as other players, but at the same time if we do have players who are better than those players statistically and give us a better chance to win, I'd like to see them playing when appropriate more often than not. That's not to say Ned never plays the percentages to give us the best chance to win, because he does. It just would appear he tends to deviate from that slightly more than most coaches do, and because we're in a pennant race those moves are magnified instead of glossed ever as learning opportunities for the players involved.

 

[Fatter than Joey]

But WARP is wins above replacement player. How do we know that the Counsellino combo wasn't AT replacement level (i.e. WARP = 0)?Even Weeks was better than a replacement level player.

 

Counsell and Graffy are about at 1.5 or so... Clearly Braun is a better option, but I don't think (if you consider D) the gap is as large as people may have thought (Braun WARP 3.9). I don't think having Braun up in April would have improved on our 24-10 start -- if at all only incrementally.

 

I think his terrible D is understated.

[lukevan]

I think you're missing the big decision that had the most negative impact on the Brewers, moving Hall to the outfield. Basically if caused the Brewers to have three of the worst defenders at their position playing at the same time. Hall wasn't a great defensive infielder, but he was average, a level Braun and Weeks will likely never reach. If Hall isn't moved, you have Hart in center meaning less Yost sitting Hart for Mench's "hot" hand. You have a Gross/Clark platoon meaning no chance for Gwynn to make the team and getting hot for three games and killing the offense for the next month.

IIRC, moving Hall to the outfield came from Melvin, but I'm sure Yost was in on it as well. Interesting to think about though.

 

If Hall wasn't moved, what would've happened on the IF? Would Braun have been called up when he was or at all? Would Hall have gone back to super-sub? How would we have survived without Elmer Dessens (j/k)??

[JohnBriggs12]

Should Yovanni Gallaro been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

 

Absolutely. The alternatives were awful. In fact Parra will end up well under his limit, and he still got hurt. The whole idea of prescribed innings limits is junk science.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team with his moves?

 

I've been watching baseball for close to 50 years. Some of his moves are indefensible. Others are questionable at best. Occasionally he'll get it right but only occasionally. But worse than his in game moves hurting the team were the moves he made filling out lineup cards. He stuck with Capuano too long. He batted Estrada too high in the lineup all year. He buried Gross on the bench while he played Mench in RF against righthanded pitching.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison, and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

They had to get somebody, but they had all offseason to get a veteran bullpen arm without paying that steep price. Had they done so, they could have inserted Villanueva into the rotation much sooner than they did.

 

Did not bringing up Braun at the start of the season have any affect on this team?

 

Fairly minimal but even a minimal positive impact earlier might have made the difference.

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets?

 

We don't know who they could have gotten for him, so this is unanswerable.

 

How many games has the bullpen cost them?

 

It wasn't how many (a little above average) but the fact that many were games they had in hand. Vs. Texas, 2 outs, nobody on, up by 3 runs and Cordero doesn't retire another batter. Turnbow had a better year than in 06, but still had a few too many meltdowns. It's one thing to give up a one or two run lead late, but this team gave up way too many 3+ run leads. The bullpen though was often mismanaged so not all blame falls on the pitchers.

 

This is the other question that needs to be asked:

 

Did the Brewers make a huge mistake by not trading Chris Capuano in the offseason when he would have been in demand?

[homer]

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

This answer assumes he goes beyond that limit......depends how much. I know some here think innings limits are poppycock but it's not like GM's are pulling this stuff out of thin air. There is an injury nexus, there is evidence that a big jump in innings from one year to the next leads to an increase risk of injury when you are a young pitcher.....now, is that causation or correlation? That's the debate but if I'm a GM I'm erring on the conservative side of things. Having said all that, I don't think going over an innings limit by 10 - 15 innings is all that big a deal.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

Too much to give up, IMO. Linebrink has been decent but I think they could have gone another route to get the same production - either from within the system or through a different trade. The Brewers probably could have traded Inman by himself and gotten someone similar to Linebrink - if not better.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

No. They were 24 - 10 at one point. He would not have made them 30 - 4 or something like that.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

Maybe but I don't think he's more to blame than a bad defense, some bad bullpen work, and some really disappointing years from guys like Hall and Estrada.

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

Yes. I'm not sure what other option they had other than to keep him.

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

I don't know if it's as bad as everyone thinks it is since the bullpen was lights out the first couple months of the year but they have probably cost the team 15 - 20 games. Not sure what league average is in that department but my uneducated guess is that the Brewers are just below average in that department. For all the big leads they've lost they've probably held on to a lot of small leads.

[Ennder]

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

 

Sheets has been injured twice as a Brewer. The injury in the end of 2005 that lasted into the middle of 2006 and then the finger injury this year. They were not wrong at all to extend him.

[clancyphile]

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

 

Yes. Had he NOT been extended, the Brewers are arguably out of the race much earlier.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

I think that answer was also yes. A high price to pay, true, but at the same time, with the arguable exception of Thatcher, none could have helped the way Linebrink did.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

Yes. The April/May wins his bat would have given us would have the Crew in first still. EACH LOSS hurts when you are one game back.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

 

His decisions have done no more to cost the team a playoff spot than holding Braun back or Capuano and Sheets missing time due to injury (with the former never really regaining his early form).

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

 

Yes. Without Sheets, the Crew is out of the race much sooner. That said, his injuries seem to have been somewhat on the "freak" side, and it may be that he's over the hump. An extension (5 years/$60 million) should be a priority.

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

 

Six - and that is Codero's blown saves ALONE, and at least one was a three-run lead. Arguably the bullpen's failure to protect large leads in the late innings may be what costs the Brewers a playoff spot - and Yost is peripheral to that. He decides who goes on to the mound, but the pitchers have to execute - and if Codero/Turnbow don't execute, it's a loss.

[Thurston Fluff]

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

 

Not much if at all.

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

Hind sight is always 20/20. Inman was the big one one in that rade and he has not been overly impressive in the jump to AA. Which is usually the one that separates the men from the boys. In return the Brewers not only got help this season when needed but also will either get a bonfide bullpen arm next year and beyond or higher draft picks than any of the players they gave up.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

If any it could be a positive one. I was one who felt he should have been up if he was the best option. Given his defensive problems he wasn't. The time in AAA wasn't long but it was enough to let him work out the major problems with his throwing without costing us games in the process. Considering how well every other aspect of the team was playing then the loss of his offense didn't hurt.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

Bit of a loaded question isn't this? First of all this question has the hidden assumption that Ned is somehow much worse than other managers in this regard. Where is your evidence of this? Have you done some sort of study or read something on this subject? Have you broke down every move Ned has made to see if your belief was in fact accurate? Or do you just assume he is, in fact, extremely subpar doing this. It's amazing how little credit Ned gets for the 5 correct moves he makes a game vs the one wrong one he makes. I do have evidence to the contrary about Neds managerial moves during a game. All you have to do is go to any other team's message boards and you will find the exact same complaints about their manager as you do with Ned. So either all the managers make the same mistakes or the fans are wrong about said moves being the differance in the game. Ned, in reality, probably makes no more mistakes than 95% of the managers out there.

As posted above very elequently by Time for a Miller his strategic decisions may have cost us a game or two but most likely not more than any other manager. If you wish to ask a loaded question then maybe I should ask one as well. How many games has Ned's steady guidence, unending message of keeping an even keel, demanding high effort, ability to keep his players focused on the next game even after horrific losses, ability to keep this team's ego's in check, ect., won for this team?

My guess is a lot more than his supposed strategic moves have lost them. Mostly because those are the qualities that actually matter when it comes to evaluating managers.

We could also ask how many games has Mike Maddux lost us by not coaching Cappy up enough or for Suppan and Bush being subpar this year. We all seemed to praise him for his success but never blamed him for the failures of his charges this year.

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets?

 

Impossible to say without knowing who we would have had instead of him. On the whole I'm a fan of keeping top notch pitchers when you can. His injury history isn't the type that bothers me as much as elbow or shoulder ones. When the Cards signed Carpenter he was coming off either shoulder or elbow problems in Toronto. Toronto lets him go and he turns in a couple Cy Young type years. Was his history of injuries and gamble on his future health worht the risk for the Cards? A WS ring and two appearances would suggest it was.

 

How many games has the bullpen cost them?

 

This assumes the bullpen was solely responsible for losses without helping the team win some games. Even games where the bullpen obviously blew late leads or let a game get out of hand it doesn't take into consideration how many runners where left on base, the erros earlier in the game, the work load in previous games that caused the meltdown in a particualr game, ect into account. Teams win and lose via a cummulative effort. It's not fair to say the bullpen lost a game if, for instance, T-Bow blew a 2 run lead in the eigth inning of a game where the batters stranded 10 runners in scoring position and the team lost 4-5. I do think that some games were lost by the bullpen but all bullpens lose games. They also win some. The net differance between how many they won vs lost is probably too subjective to get an accurate number.

 

Did the Brewers make a huge mistake by not trading Chris Capuano in the offseason when he would have been in demand?

 

Obviously the answer is yes. That wasn't so obvious last winter. IF he comes out next year and returns to form, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, then the answer is no. Only the future will tell on this one.

[owbc]

How many games has the bullpen cost them?

 

Considering the number of close leads that they have held onto, the net loss has to be about 3-5 games or so, mostly consisting of Aquino, Spurling, and Balfour meltdowns. Cordero and Turnbow combined to save at least 10 games that we could have/should have lost.

[olliegjw]

How many games has the bullpen cost them?

 

Considering the number of close leads that they have held onto, the net loss has to be about 3-5 games or so, mostly consisting of Aquino, Spurling, and Balfour meltdowns. Cordero and Turnbow combined to save at least 10 games that we could have/should have lost.

 

I think the only way you can answer this is to compare to other teams. What is a teams record when they are leading when the starters leave the game, and also what is the teams record when the team is losing when the starter leaves the game? If a team normally wins 80% of the time when leading and 20% when trailing, and the Brewers are at 75% and 25%, then there may be little effect. I don't know if the actual stats are available anywhere, but that would be the only concrete evidence to prove it either way.

[logan82]

I think you're missing the big decision that had the most negative impact on the Brewers, moving Hall to the outfield. Basically if caused the Brewers to have three of the worst defenders at their position playing at the same time. Hall wasn't a great defensive infielder, but he was average, a level Braun and Weeks will likely never reach. If Hall isn't moved, you have Hart in center meaning less Yost sitting Hart for Mench's "hot" hand. You have a Gross/Clark platoon meaning no chance for Gwynn to make the team and getting hot for three games and killing the offense for the next month.

 

I thought we had established long ago that when Mench was playing Hart was hurt. Hall made some great plays, but he was still nowhere near average as a defender.

[bjkrautk]

We have about a 1 in 3 chance at making the playoffs at this point, so I've been wondering what everybody thinks about some of the "playoff moves" and other things the Brewers have done if it turns out that we don't actually get there.

 

Should Yovanni Gallardo, arguably the future of the franchise in the rotation, have been extended beyond his prescribed innings limit?

 

No. If the organization had a plan that called for Gallardo and Parra to pitch a fixed number of innings this year, that plan should have already factored in the possibility that they would be needed in a potential playoff run. The reason that you make a plan is so that you can make these kinds of decisions with some separation from the "win now" mentality of a competitive September. If it becomes a question of winning now v. an injury risk in future years, most teams will be swept up in instant returns. (See., e.g., Kerry Wood and Mark Prior)

 

Should we have given up Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Scott Linebrink?

 

Since the trade: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 7.4 K/9 IP, 1.45 WHIP.

I'd like the WHIP to be lower (even though it is below the team's collective 1.51 WHIP after the A-S break), but in terms of ERA, he's been our third best reliever since the break. The price may or may not have been steep (impossible to know now), but there weren't a lot of quality RP moved at the trade deadline. Given Matt Wise's collapse, I don't think that the Brewers are within a game of the Cubs without Linebrink.

 

Did not bringing up Ryan Braun at the start of the season have any impact on this team?

 

We were 24-10 early in the year. Most of the teams' struggles actually came with Braun in the lineup (even if not caused by him). It's hard for me to imagine that having a full year of Braun would have had that much of an effect.

 

Has Ned Yost cost this team a playoff spot with his moves?

 

The easy answer will be to say 'yes.' Questions like this tend to draw the attention of those who were upset by some of Ned's decisions, and also tend to under-weigh the times where Ned made a decision that helped the team win a game (batting Dillon # 3 on Sunday, for instance). I think both sides will have more than their share of ammunition on this one.

 

Were the Brewers smart to keep Ben Sheets despite his propensity to miss games, which well may have proven crucial in this race, or were the games he actually pitched in too valuable to give up?

 

I don't think that a team can let a pitcher with Sheets' talent get away. Other than the arm injury, most of his missed games have been flukish in nature. It's not like #1 starters are falling all over themselves for an opportunity to pitch for the Brewers.

 

If this team does reach the Playoffs (during this window of opportunity), is there anybody that you could really see starting game #1 other than Ben Sheets? I hope Gallardo can become that guy, but he's a few years behind, IMO.

 

How many games has the bullpen cost this team?

 

The Bullpen ERA (ESPN Split - 'As Reliever' ) is 4.17, with a 20-28 Win-loss record, and 48 saves (it doesn't show blown saves).

The team's overall ERA is 4.50.

 

It's hard for me to place a numerical value on losses caused by the bullpen. How many of those losses came in tie games (and did the Brewers' offense score any runs during regulation)? Every pitcher not named Francisco Cordero is going to give up runs from time to time; that should hold true for opposing relievers, too. All too often, the Brewers offense would get a 3-4 run lead, and then not score in the back half of the game (based on my recollection....actual research may vary). It's the pitcher that gets stigmatized with the loss, even if he has pitched reasonably well.

 

At the same time, Cordero has saved 43 out of 49 opportunities; how many more games would they have lost with an average closer, that they won thanks to the bullpen?

 

 

 

[endaround]

I think you're missing the big decision that had the most negative impact on the Brewers, moving Hall to the outfield. Basically if caused the Brewers to have three of the worst defenders at their position playing at the same time. Hall wasn't a great defensive infielder, but he was average, a level Braun and Weeks will likely never reach. If Hall isn't moved, you have Hart in center meaning less Yost sitting Hart for Mench's "hot" hand. You have a Gross/Clark platoon meaning no chance for Gwynn to make the team and getting hot for three games and killing the offense for the next month.

I thought we had established long ago that when Mench was playing Hart was hurt. Hall made some great plays, but he was still nowhere near average as a defender.

No, you may have thought that but Yost told Attanasio, you knwo teh owner, that Mench was playign "cuz he was hittign .400!" And even when Hart was hurt why was Mench playign over Gross, you know the guy Yost is so smart to be playing now?

Hall as a 3B-84 games 2 FRAA. Pretty much the definition of average.

[Tbadder]

Geez, I don't know. But man oh man, these are absolutely esential questions. The level of intelligence around here is just refreshing.

 

I guess the biggest question here is how much is Yost responsible for the mid to late season bullpen collapse that cost us the division. If it's mostly on the players you gotta keep Yost. If it's an inability to make the correct moves you gotta dump Yost.