Next year's rotation

[chadomac]

I agree that it would be absolutely ridiculous to non-tender Capuano. I believe he WILL be the 5th starter next year and I also believe he'll bounce back.

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Villanueva

Suppan

Capuano

 

Parra and Bush as the long men. Vargas gone. Hopefully.

[endaround]

Bush in the bullpen is a waste. Either he's a starter or he should be traded. Same goes for Capuano. Putting them in the bullpen just degrades their value and doesn't really help the team that much.

[dadofandrew]

Bush in the bullpen is a waste.

 

 

 

Yes, as the 2006 & 2007 Brewers have proven, no team ever needs 7-8 starters. Just go with 5 guys and bring up a AAA vet if one gets hurt.

 

Short-term planning does not lead to long-term success. Bush as the 6th starter seems pretty appealing to me.

[endaround]

Yes it better to keep Bush in the bullpen then trade him for Nathan to close games because 2006 and 2007 have shown that Turnbow is a great closer.

 

Keeping around a 7th starting option in his prime is foolish.

[Brewtacular]

Yes it better to keep Bush in the bullpen then trade him for Nathan to close games because 2006 and 2007 have shown that Turnbow is a great closer.

 

Keeping around a 7th starting option in his prime is foolish.

The Twins are not sending Nathan for Bush. They have some solid young pitchers why would they want Bush?

 

[sbrylski]

Yes it better to keep Bush in the bullpen then trade him for Nathan to close games because 2006 and 2007 have shown that Turnbow is a great closer.

 

Keeping around a 7th starting option in his prime is foolish.

The Twins are not sending Nathan for Bush. They have some solid young pitchers why would they want Bush?

 

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

This season more than any other in recent history has shown us how important it is to have pitching depth in the starting rotation.

 

Maybe people have forgotten the days when guys like Jamie McAndrew and Sid Roberson were getting the ball every 5 days when a frontline starter went down.

[kilgore37]

Somehow I think parra works his way into the rotation

[endaround]

The Brewers bullpen next year consists of Turnbow, Wise, and a 39 year old Shouse. Yes it would be nice to have a 7 deep rotation, but having a closer not named McClung would be better still. Gwynn and Vargas aren't bringing back anything hugely great.

[JohnBriggs12]

Look do I think it's possible Capuano will bounce back? Sure it's possible. But bouncing back for him would be to average starter, not All Star and it's certainly not a given.

 

My take on his troubles this year are that he's throwing it the same as always but the league caught up with him. That's my take and I know others disagree. I think his earlier success was based in part on a somewhat deceptive delivery which if hitters see enough, they figure out. If you think multiple teams would have interest in a guy who's been awful for a year and a half, offer him arby and deal him. But I think offers for him at this point will be guys other teams don't really want either and I don't see how that strategy really improves the Brewers. As for keeping him and hoping he turns it around for the Brewers, sure that would be great. But if he doesn't, you think the fans have turned on Turnbow. It'll be the old fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

 

As for next year's rotation, I don't know how Vargas isn't at least in the discussion especially after last night. That was a huge lift he gave his team.

[zzzmanwitz]

i just can't justify puttying capuano back in the rotation when bush as only been one of the most consistent pitchers on the team for the last two years. No, i take that back, he's been THE MOST consistent pitcher on the team the last two years. Capuano coming out of the pen hasn't been that horrible this year and he should start there next season.

 

I would consider putting Gallardo in the pen to start out the year, like they did with Villenueva, but since that won't happen, i guess my 5 would be:

 

Sheets

Villenueva

Gallardo

Bush

Suppan

[Patrick425]

i just can't justify puttying capuano back in the rotation when bush as only been one of the most consistent pitchers on the team for the last two years. No, i take that back, he's been THE MOST consistent pitcher on the team the last two years.

Consistancy is not the word that comes to my mind when I think of Bush over the last two years.

 

ERA 2006: 4.41 2007: 5.34

WHIP 2006: 1.14 2007: 1.41

[Tbadder]

With Sheets it's become more than obvious that the Crew will have to carry at minimum 6 starters. Now if no one else gets hurt 6 will suffice, but if another goes down that means 7 starters. So, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I think we keep Vargas and Cappy and Parra in the pen (considering PARRA ALSO WILL DO HIS BEST SHEETER IMITATION) so in reality that makes 8 starters.

 

I used to be all for trading Vargas or Cappy, but upon thinking about it, I believe that is tantamount to organizational suicide in Milwaukee.

[Patrick425]

Does anyone have a clue as to the type of arbitration #'s that we would be looking at for guys like Bush, Cappy and Vargas? Last year I tried to estimate the Brewers off-season budget and did some Arby guesses and I was way off. I always understimate what players will get in arbitration by a lot. For example, Capuano..is there any way he get's a raise on his 3.25M through arbitration? If so, that's crazy. Hey, you had a horrible year...here's a raise.

[endaround]

Cappy will get a raise, how much is hard to say since he still had an All Star appearance. A year that actually reflected his FIP would mean $5 million easily, my guess is around $4 million but who knows. Bush is likely looking at around $2 million given past success and Vargas in his third year will likely get around $5 million which could easily go up with another win.

[Patrick425]

Cappy will get a raise, how much is hard to say since he still had an All Star appearance. A year that actually reflected his FIP would mean $5 million easily, my guess is around $4 million but who knows. Bush is likely looking at around $2 million given past success and Vargas in his third year will likely get around $5 million which could easily go up with another win.

If any of that is true, it's completely insane.

[Ennder]

Cappy will get a raise, how much is hard to say since he still had an All Star appearance. A year that actually reflected his FIP would mean $5 million easily, my guess is around $4 million but who knows. Bush is likely looking at around $2 million given past success and Vargas in his third year will likely get around $5 million which could easily go up with another win.

If any of that is true, it's completely insane.

Sounds about right to me, especially if they go by the numbers the pitcher controls and not ERA or even WHIP which just aren't very useful for judging pitchers.

[Patrick425]

Sounds about right to me, especially if they go by the numbers the pitcher controls and not ERA or even WHIP which just aren't very useful for judging pitchers.

I don't need stats like ERA, Whip, FIP (which I don't clearly understand, I know it has something to do with taking fielders out of the equation...I mean isn't that what the E in ERA is all about. I know, the stat people on this board are going to jump all over this) to know that Capuano did not pitch very good for 5 out of 6 months. I witnessed it. Didn't he go through arbitration last year (I'm assuming that's how he got to 3.25M)? If so, his all-star appearance in 2006 should have nothing to do with this year's arbitration. It would really bother me if the Brewers went out in the FA market and signed a guy like Capuano to a $5Mil contract.

 

By the way, I know that FIP is a highly regarded tool for evaluating pitchers. Just never understood it.

[Ennder]

Sounds about right to me, especially if they go by the numbers the pitcher controls and not ERA or even WHIP which just aren't very useful for judging pitchers.

I don't need stats like ERA, Whip, FIP (which I don't clearly understand, I know it has something to do with taking fielders out of the equation...I mean isn't that what the E in ERA is all about. I know, the stat people on this board are going to jump all over this) to know that Capuano did not pitch very good for 5 out of 6 months. I witnessed it. Didn't he go through arbitration last year (I'm assuming that's how he got to 3.25M)? If so, his all-star appearance in 2006 should have nothing to do with this year's arbitration. It would really bother me if the Brewers went out in the FA market and signed a guy like Capuano to a $5Mil contract.

 

By the way, I know that FIP is a highly regarded tool for evaluating pitchers. Just never understood it.

 

We just judge pitchers by different methods. Capuano has thrown the ball this year as well as he did in 2005, in 2005 he had a 3.99 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP but all of his other stats were sitting around the same as this years stats. There is also a pretty strong case to be made that a lot of Capuano's struggles this year have been caused by the injury as he was pitching a lot like his 2006 numbers before the injury.

[sbrylski]

FIP:

 

The only thing a pitcher can really control is K's and BB's, and HR or FB rate. FIP uses those three stats to take fielding, BABIP, and LOB% to take the luck or natural variation out of ERA, and tell you what it "should" be.

 

Its a better predictor of future success because K's, BB's, and FB rate don't fluctuate nearly as much as LOB%, BABIP, and LOB%, which are generally just luck.

[Patrick425]

I have a hard time in putting any faith behind a stat that suggests that Capuano pitched well this year and deserves a $5M contract.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just because you don't fully understand it doesn't mean that it isn't a pretty good measure of a pitcher (no offense intended) - I do agree that it's no sure bet that Cappy can 'regain' his past success, but he's really had a lot of bad luck (and a lot of horrible fielding behind him) this year. Not that that takes away the fact that he's had his struggles.

[Ennder]

I have a hard time in putting any faith behind a stat that suggests that Capuano pitched well this year and deserves a $5M contract.

 

He has pitched average and thats what an average pitcher makes. To be fair he was lucky in 2005, his ERA should have been up around 4.50. This year he has had a goofy BABIP and LOB% and those two stats almost always regress back to your average. Capuano pitching like he did in 2004, 2005, 2007 is a #4 starter with a 4.50ish ERA. Capuano pitching like he did in 2006 is a #3 starter with a 4ish ERA.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I wonder if part of the problem isn't with the very notion of arbitration. In each successive year of arbitration, players' salaries get closer to the 'open market' salary commanded by free agents. So they'll make near minimum salaries for two or three years, then start ramping up toward the open market number. Sixth year players get arby salaries very similar to those of free agents.

 

In each case, the arby salaries are dictated by those of peers with similar service time. Capuano will have 4+ years service time after this season. So when Capuano's salary is negotated, he'll be throwing out numbers of other starting pitchers in their fifth year. Ben Sheets in year 5 got $9.5M...Capuano won't be close to that, but it's a point of comparison. Jason Jennings got $4.4M in his fifth year (06), Kyle Lohse got $3.95M (also 06), Ramon Ortiz got $3.55M (05)...those guys are average starters at best...add 10% per year for inflation and you get something between $4M and $5M for Capuano. So you don't have to have a sub-4 ERA to get $4M as a fifth-year arby-eligible starting pitcher.