Next year's rotation

[Patrick425]

The Cardinals had a 4.54 ERA last season. The Brewers have a 4.52 this season. The best team and the best pitching doesn't win very often. Anything can happen if you get in the playoffs, there is no tried and true way to win.

Yes, the "best" team doesn't always win, but as far as pitching goes, I think the Cards were somewhat of an exception last year. Let's look at the MLB team ERA rank of the last 7 World Series:

 

2006: StL 16th Det 1st

2005: CWS 4th Hous 2nd

2004: Bos 11th St L 2nd

2003: Fla 10th NYY 9th

2002: LAA 4th SF 2nd

2001: AZ 4th NYY 6th

2000: NYY 16th NYM 3rd

 

Now I realize that this is a small sample of recent history and that it does not take into account what type of offense these teams had, but it would seem that strong pitching is helpful in getting you to the WS.

 

Not everyone likes the quality start stat, but there are only 6 teams in MLB with less QSs than the Brewers. Can that all be blamed on bad defense? If so, should the Brewers go out and look for better defensive players in the offseason, or should we just hope guys like Weeks and Braun get defensively better with age?

 

You take Sheets out of that rotation (which is always something that is a possibility) and things start looking pretty troublesome for a team that hopes to make it to the post season for the next several years. Gallardo has had a pretty good rookie year, but I'm not willing to appoint him "Ace in waiting" yet. There is just way too much talk of "potential" in the starting staff. They don't need potential. They need proven, veteran talent. Even another Suppan would be helpful.

[brewers4eric]

In most years, teams will use at least 8 different starting pitchers. Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villanueva, Bush, Capuano, and Parra are some nice options. If you compare this list to some of the names that we trotted out to the mound a few years ago, it gives you a sense of how far the franchise has come, and how much are expectations, as fans, have been raised.

[JohnBriggs12]

They should start with Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villanueva and Bush or Vargas. Capuano should be in pen, traded or non-tendered. The fact that there would be no lefties in that group increases the value of Capuano out of the pen. Teams will send out lefthanded hitting lineups against the Brewers starters. I like the idea of the long man (in this case Capuano) being the opposite of the bulk of your starters. It gives the lefty long man the advantage of facing linueps with a lot of lefties. Parra should be the first call upon the collapse and/or injury to one of the other starters. He should start the year in a normal rotation at Nashville so he's ready immediately. Parra is probably one of the 5 best candidates, but I'd rather start out with a 3 veteran, 2 young guys mix.

 

I'm not that enthralled with Bush out of the pen. What is his out pitch? I would have to see some sign that as a one inning pitcher, Bush could add 3-4 mph to his fastball and more consistent bite to his curveball. If he could do that, then maybe.

 

The free agent market is supposed to be thinner than it's ever been. I heard the Pirate announcers say Tony Armas Jr. might be the best available. Now that is thin.

[Thurston Fluff]

1) Sheets

2) Gallardo

3) Villanueva

4) Suppan

5) Bush/Capuano I'd give Cappy the chance to start in the begiing but have him on a short leash. partly because Bush has some experience as a reliever and partly because if Cappy is right is a better pitcher parlty because it gives a lefty in the rotation.

 

I'd like to see Parra start the year in AAA so he can stretch out some more and be the first man up if needed. He never really has pitched many innings in a season.

[biedergb]

With a thin FA market, I could definitely see us trade Vargas or Bush. A poor FA market should drive up the trading market for pitchers. Despite poor numbers, they are relatively cheap (although Vargas is arby eligible) and I can see teams who need MLB ready pitching willing to trade for either one. The return may not be great, but a reliable bullpen arm, a LF, or a catcher would all be needs for this team. As far as Vargas and Bush in the pen, I'm not sold. Both have been prone to the big inning, and if memory serves me (which is not a given) many of their big innings were in the 1st 3 innings, so it's not like a fatigue thing. But I would only trade one and keep the other as a #5 starter, long reliever or injury replacement.

 

I like Sheets, Gallardo at the top and Suppan obviously in the middle. I agree with the setniment to reward Villanueva with the chance to compete for the 4 or 5 spot with Capuano and Parra. I don't like trading Capuano, because he had a down year after 2 good ones. He has shown real potential, and I'm afraid he would come back to haunt us if we let him go now.

 

This sure beats the situation from the past 15+ years when we had maybe 5 MLB ready starters on the team to begin with. And as this year has shown, to be competitive you need 6-8 guys who can be MLB ready because of injuries, struggles, double-headers, etc.

[Thurston Fluff]

As far as Vargas and Bush in the pen, I'm not sold. Both have been prone to the big inning, and if memory serves me (which is not a given) many of their big innings were in the 1st 3 innings, so it's not like a fatigue thing.

 

I've seen this arguement before and by some people whose opinion I repsect very much but I just don't think there is that strong a correlation. A starter's approach is fundamentally differant than a relievers. The starter is not only making pitches to get a batter out that AB but also to set him up later on. Most starters need three pitches to go through the usual 6+ inning expected of them. That third best pitch which may get them in trouble at times can be used early when a starter is trying to establish it in the minds of hitters. Many times to the detriment of the pitcher early in the game. By sacrificing some early dominance he hopes to get through the lineup an extra time or two. That third pitch so many pitchers need in a start wouldn't be needed in a shorter outing.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Was that supposed to be blue? If not, do you like our starting rotation? It would be nice to have an ace that you could rely on being healthy. Suppan is mediocre middle to end of the rotation innings eater. Villanueva and Gallardo are promising, but young and unproven. Bush Cappy, Vargas?...scary.

 

Brewer fans need to get out of this building a young team mentality. We are now a contending team and need to start acting like one. With the offense they have, that pitching staff may be enough to get them to the playoffs, but it won't go far beyond that. It will be depressing to me if the go into next season with some mix of the same starting pitchers they currently have.

 

You were talking about adding a free-agent pitcher. But look at the free agent list (see below) and see who is available. While I'd love to see an ace pitcher added, there aren't a lot of free agent options that are very exciting...lots of scrap-heap guys, old-timers, and/or guys with injury histories. If they're going to add an established pitcher, I think it's a lot more likely that it will be via a trade. Oddly, their most valuable trading chits are also starting pitchers, so it's hard to say how that would work out.

 

 

From Cot's (* indicates team option):

 

Starting Pitchers

Kris Benson * BAL

Paul Byrd * CLE

Shawn Chacon PIT

Matt Clement BOS

Bartolo Colon LAA

Scott Elarton CLE

Josh Fogg COL

Casey Fossum * TB

Freddy Garcia PHI

Livan Hernandez ARZ

Jason Jennings HOU

Brian Lawrence * NYM

Jon Lieber PHI

Kyle Lohse PHI

Rodrigo Lopez COL

Wade Miller CHC

Eric Milton CIN

Odalis Perez * KC

Joel Pineiro * STL

Kenny Rogers DET

Curt Schilling BOS

Carlos Silva MIN

Julian Tavarez * BOS

Brett Tomko * LAD

Kip Wells STL

Randy Wolf * LAD

Jaret Wright BAL

Victor Zambrano BAL

[Patrick425]

Yeah, that is a pretty sad roster of FA sp's. So, yes, I guess I would not want to see the Brewers throw a ton of money at any of those guys. However, I think the Brewers are at a point where any prospect should be tradable. This window of time where the Brewers have this potent offense may only last 3 or 4 years. It's time to think big.

[sbrylski]

Briggs, why do you always want to non-tender people? I know it'd be a last resort with Capuano assuming we can't trade him, but non-tendering a pitcher with a career 4.40 ERA after one bad season would be totally foolish. Maybe I'm nitpicking, but if you want to see him traded, fine and we will have takers, but lets not call for him to be non-tendered. That said, I wouldn't trade him either with his current value at its lowest. Give him the #5 spot and 2 months next season to try to prove he should be in there, and I think he will (based on past preformance, current secondary stats, and FIP).

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Suppan

Villanueva/Bush

Capuano

 

Parra and Villanueva/Bush in pen

[MoneyballMan]

I'm not sure exactly how rich the FA market is going to be for starting pitchers...but I would be a little concerned if they didn't go after one in the off season. That's a glaring weakness if you ask me.

 

Seriously?

 

 

I kind of thought the same thing before I saw your "seriously". Maybe I'd agree that there's room for improvement if something fell into their laps, but "glaring weakness" seems a bit of an overstatement.

[Tbadder]

I'll bet that Gallardo will end up on the DL for at least 20% of the season if he's a starter from day one. We got one chronically injured pitcher; I'd rather not have Gallardo go down the Sheeter as well.

 

On the other hand the Brewers have to make Gallardo a starter or they'd come into too much criticism.

 

I agree with those that think the starters are a real weakness. I'd look to the off season as well, but I'm afaraid the money's dried up.

 

This season our lack of quality starters destroyed the bullpen eventually, and put so much pressure on the offense to "catch up" or "keep up" that the team had no discipline at the plate.

[TooLiveBrew]

Unless you're a doctor in the sports field, I find your 20% comment strange. The organization will proceed carefully with Gallardo, as they've done from day one. You can't place a pitcher in a metaphorical bubble and expect him to succeed. He is a professional ballplayer, and I guarantee you he wants to pitch. Think about the approach you're advocating - you'll never allow anything but marginal success by sheltering the guy and limiting his outings to the point that injuries are a miniscule concern.

 

Any player can get hurt at any time - you can't try to account for bad luck or freak situations. What you can do is allow the young man to grow into a big-time role, as opposed to rushing him (see: Prior, M. & Wood, K.). Although I agree it's pretty clear the organization is allowing for some flexibility with their innings cap, I don't think it's cause for concern.

 

The Brewers have a very good (and highly-regarded) medical staff, and if there's any organization that values young (read: cheap) pitching, it's a small-market club. If Gallardo will/would need extra rest, it's his responsibility to let the organization know - but that's also on the front office & coaching staff to be perceptive. It's not like Yovani needing to skip a start or two would cost him his spot in the rotation, and having depth at SP is valuable in that it allows the Brewers flexibility & creativity.

 

Fwiw, the example of Francisco Liriano can be useful. It appears the approach the Twins took (in terms of IP increases) is very similar to the one the Brewers have employed with Gallardo, except Liriano only threw 9ish innings in his age-19 season (2003) due to shoulder problems. Coming back, he was worked nearly identically to Gallardo in his age-20 season (1505-ish IP) So, while the patterns both teams employed are similar, greater care should have been taken with Liriano, given the severity of his shoulder injury/ies. Since Gallardo isn't coming back from any major shoulder or arm issues, I am fully on-board with the "growing" of his young arm.

[Ennder]

I think people are obsessing on ERA too much when looking at our pitching. The sad truth is we have one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. If you swap our pitchers straight up with the Cubs they would still be talking about how the pitching was a strength of the team and we would still be saying pitching was a weakness. When your defense is as bad as ours is the only pitchers that will be successful are heavy strikeout pitchers.

[logan82]

I am a little confused by an innings limit being brought up for Gallardo next year. I understand and agree with the reasoning behind limiting his innings. I just think that his limit will have gotten to the point next year where it will be a nonissue. 150 innings last year with a increase of 20-30 innings this year puts us at 170-180. Same increase for next year puts us at 190-210 innings. 35 starts at 6 innings each puts us at 210 innings. So at worst, if it comes down to it he misses a 2-3 starts during the year. I think that if he pitched 190 innings next year we all would be very happy.

[Patrick425]

but "glaring weakness" seems a bit of an overstatement.

I don't think it's an overstatement at all. At one point, the 5 starting pitcher (when Sheets was injured) had the five highest ERAs on the staff. They are 17th in MLB in ERA (well, the whole staff is, don't know about the starters - my guess is that it might be even lower) and they are 24th in quality starts. Is this staff better than what the Brewers were throwing out there 4 or 5 years ago, but is that really a big accomplishment? I can't believe that fans have set there standards so low. Gallardo and Villaenueva have pitched well lately, but I would hate to put so much weight on these young arms to get the Brewers to the promise land. Sheets is a constant injury risk. Just too many if and buts for a team that wants to be taken seriously as a contender.

[sbrylski]

To throw out the stats behind Ennder's post:

 

FIP (ERA)

Capuano - 4.53 (5.33)

Suppan - 4.39 (4.73)

Bush - 4.48 (5.34)

 

If the defense did its part, we wouldn't be harping on the pitchers.

[lukevan]

If the defense did its part, we wouldn't be harping on the pitchers.

 

And the upside to this is that the defense should be better next season just by growth from our young players. Throw in a full season of Gallardo and Villy in the rotation, with any luck a relatively healthy Sheets in a contract year, and Cappy who has shown he's capable of more than what he did this season, and I think there's plenty to be optimistic about for the pitching next season without having to sign or trade for any other starters.

[logan82]

Scary to think how much of a snowball effect the defense can have. All theoretical, but with better defense our pitchers could pitch deeper into games thus we could rely more on our best relievers limiting the innings of guys like Dessens and Spurling. Meaning less wear and tear on Villanueva so he would still be fresh and a stud out of the bulpen. Ending up in more wins and a bigger lead in the division. Maybe. All a stretch, but not unrealistic. Completley impossible to quantify.

[princeginterhallhelms04]

My rotation would be 1) Sheets 2) Yo 3) Villy 4) Cappy 5) Suppan

I would hold on to Bush and at least attempt to keep Vargas but i am sure that he will either be traded or find him self Non Tendered!

[Tbadder]

Unless you're a doctor in the sports field, I find your 20% comment strange. The organization will proceed carefully with Gallardo, as they've done from day one. You can't place a pitcher in a metaphorical bubble and expect him to succeed. He is a professional ballplayer, and I guarantee you he wants to pitch. Think about the approach you're advocating - you'll never allow anything but marginal success by sheltering the guy and limiting his outings to the point that injuries are a miniscule concern.

 

Any player can get hurt at any time - you can't try to account for bad luck or freak situations. What you can do is allow the young man to grow into a big-time role, as opposed to rushing him (see: Prior, M. & Wood, K.). Although I agree it's pretty clear the organization is allowing for some flexibility with their innings cap, I don't think it's cause for concern.

I think your approach is intelligent and I really can't disagree from a rational point of view. However I'd play it overcautiously with this guy. It could be that this is the greatest pitcher the organization has ever produced, better than Sheets, better than anyone I can think of. For whatever reason the Brewers do not produce enough significant pitching. If they screw this guy up, then it might be another 25 years before another Yovanni comes around. Let clubs like the Cubs burn out their pitchers; they can always buy another one. But the Brewers have no choices; they must make Gallardo count. If he starts down the injury road, like a lot of other pitchers, he may never return. I don't know about the Brewer doctors, so I can't judge either way, but the history of ten year starting pitchers doesn't seem like it's worked around here. in addition, as you point out, the Brewers have or will put Yovanni over his limit this year. What happens next year when the Crew is even better, and are mounting a legitimate playoff run? I think it will be too much to resist. But I take your point and it's a good one.

 

 

(separated post content from quote --1992)

[JohnBriggs12]

Why do I want to non tender people?

 

Because I believe in addition by subtraction. Frankly paying a guy $4 million who is 7-20 with a 5.13 ERA since July 1st of 2006 doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I think you could get those numbers from minimum salary guys. If you know you could trade him, then fine offer him arby.

 

Brewers are still a small market team. If they have any hopes of keeping their top guys they have to save by not throwing even what's considered modest amounts at non-producers like Capuano.

 

Now I know there are arguments for keeping him too, but my original post just listed non-tendering as an option that should be considered.

[sbrylski]

Why do I want to non tender people?

 

Because I believe in addition by subtraction. Frankly paying a guy $4 million who is 7-20 with a 5.13 ERA since July 1st of 2006 doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I think you could get those numbers from minimum salary guys. If you know you could trade him, then fine offer him arby.

 

Brewers are still a small market team. If they have any hopes of keeping their top guys they have to save by not throwing even what's considered modest amounts at non-producers like Capuano.

 

Now I know there are arguments for keeping him too, but my original post just listed non-tendering as an option that should be considered.

But one, there's zero reason why Capuano wouldn't garner interest from multiple teams, and two, all statistical indicators predict he'll bounce back. I guess its an option if you really, really think Capuano will only get worse, but I completely disagree with that view.

[Thurston Fluff]

Gallardo and Villaenueva have pitched well lately, but I would hate to put so much weight on these young arms to get the Brewers to the promise land.

Why should they be differant than Feilder, Hart, Hardy, Weeks ect? This team is always going to have to pin it's hopes on young, unproven players. I don't see the problem if the scouts, minor league developmental staff and GM does their job.

 

Sheets is a constant injury risk.

 

I certainly can't say he hasn't been an injury risk but none of those injuries scare me going forward. They simply were freak injuries with no real problems that will effect him going forward like a shoulder or elbow injury would.

[dadofandrew]

Capuano would garner a 1y/$5M contract minimum on the FA market, and very likely a Marquis-like 3y/$21M deal. The idea of losing him for nothing is appalling. It's basically saying that LH's with a 5ish ERA have no value, which is far from true, never mind the ceiling.

 

Simply put, many underestimate what veteran SP's are worth, proven by Marquis last year. As many expected, Jason went right back to career norms as well. Luckily, Doug will not overreact.

[Patrick425]

I certainly can't say he hasn't been an injury risk but none of those injuries scare me going forward.

Does it really matter if the injuries scare you going forward...the guy always finds a new to get injured. Yikes, what is next with this guy.http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/frown.gif