Next year's rotation

[adambr2]

It's a litte fuzzy right now, but barring a major offseason move, here's what I think we'll be seeing:

 

1 ) Sheets - Still our ace, but needs to stay healthy. It's a make or break year for him. If he misses significant time, I don't know that we can afford to extend him a big contract extension.

 

2) Gallardo - Should be already primed to be our #2 pitcher in his first full season.

 

3) Suppan - You know what you get with Suppan, and while it's nothing flashy, never will be, he's a guy we want in September.

 

4) Capuano - I don't think you can give up on Capuano. He was the model of consistency in 2005 and 2006. I don't think he suddenly just forgot how to pitch. If he's anything like he was before this year, we want him in our rotation.

 

5) Villanueva - How do you keep him out of the rotation next year? I don't believe you can, and I don't see any reason he can't be one of the best #5's in the game. Seems to be just better suited to be a starter.

 

Outside looking in:

Bush, Vargas, Parra

 

I would like to see Parra in a long relief role similar to what Villy had this year. Keep either of Bush or Vargas in the pen and as insurance if a starter goes down or is ineffective. The other could be trade bait.

 

Ideally, it'd be nice to acquire a top tier starter in the offseason but I don't see it happening, especially after acquiring Suppan last season.

[And That]

A point about the rotation going into next season may turn on is whether the Brewers feel the need to have a lefty in the rotation. I'd personally rather have Dave Bush than Chris Capuano in the rotation, but if it means Bush going to the pen for awhile, that might be an option. Parra really looks on the outside looking in at this moment, which still speaks to our depth.

 

If I had to harbor any sort of guess at the moment, I would go with:

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Suppan

Villanueva

Bush

 

Vargas is getting dealt at some point, but I am not so sure on Cappy. Cappy, Shousey and Parra would shut down any opposing left handed options, and stashing Capuano away for at least part of the season might help us in the long term if he came back strong later on in '08.

 

And I can't take Bush out of the rotation. Dude is bound to own for a large part of the season any time now.

[wisconsinfan47]

1. Sheets - Should be in the prime of his career, and if he can (finally) stay healthy, could be a Cy Young darkhorse. The concern will be with IP. He's a horse and always has been, but remember that he hasn't pitched a full season since '04. It's unclear what 200-225 Innings could do to him by September.

2. Gallardo - He'll be 22 next year. I don't know much about handling young arms, but I'd still put him on an IP limit per month, for example.

3. Suppan - Solid inning-eater. You get what you pay for (almost...).

4. Bush - Dave Bush has been the most consistent starter, nay, pitcher, over the past two seasons. His WHIP and ERA are considerably higher this year than last, but you cannot leave out a guy who will have pitched a combined 400 or so innings in just 2 years here.

5. Capuano - Still has the tools to be an effective starter, including a beautiful changeup. Not to mention he's potentially the only lefty in the rotation.

 

It's nice to have options like Villy, Parra, and Vargas as well. I think you could throw Villy in just about any situation and he could do it. Very valuable arm to have if one of the starters goes down.

[And That]

I honestly don't see how CV doesn't have a rotation spot at this point. He's been so valuable this year, but in the end he may be most valuable in the rotation at the end of the year. He's a shoe-in, IMO.

[logan82]

1) Sheets

2) Gallardo - I think his innigs limit should be around 180 for this year which means it would be 200-205(?) next year. If he pitches that many innings next year he ould be pitching more than most starters in the league, so innings shouldn't be an issue next year.

3) Villanueva - Has done nothing over the past 2 years to show he doesn't belong in our starting rotation. Has done nothing but pitch well as a starter for us.

4) Suppan - Kind of sucks we are stuck with him, but he still gives prety consistent if not spectacular innings every year. Not bad for the back of the rotation.

5) Bush/Capuano - Tough choice. Nice proble to have though. We see it ever year. A starter will get hurt and we have the aarms to cover.

 

Parra and Vargas to the bulpen. I think one of these last 4 get traded, but not more than one. We will need them in 2009 and after when Sheets is gone.

[endaround]

Vargas will be getting around $5 million next year. way too much money to pay for the Brewers 8th best starting option. Depending on how they feel Parr'a arm needs to progress due to injury, I could see him taking Villenuava's role in the bullpen. I also think one of Capuano or Bush gets traded for bullpen help (say Bush/Capuano and Gwynn for Nathan form the Twins).

[Patrick425]

I'm not sure exactly how rich the FA market is going to be for starting pitchers...but I would be a little concerned if they didn't go after one in the off season. That's a glaring weakness if you ask me.

[Tbadder]

1. Sheets: he'll be number 1 obviously, but just as obviously he'll spend a large section of the season on the DL.

2. Suppan: innings eater

3. Bush: our new number 3, geez

4. Villanueva: he just performs; Brewers finally admit their mistake and put him where he belonged all along

5. Parra: gotta have a lefty in there

 

I hope they resist the Gallardo thing. Keep him in the pen until he turns 24. Long reliever only I hope. Cappy needs to be the first lefty outta the pen. Somebody's gotta set up Turnbow, and that's the real problem isn't it. Maybe Vargas will bring us a set-up type guy.

[jeffy]

I see Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo as the top 3 starters at this point. I would assume that they will feel they have to have a left hander, Capuano and Parra would fight for that spot. Then Bush, Villanueva, and perhaps Vargas along with the loser of Capuano/Parra would fight it out for the final spot. Some of those that don't make the rotation could go to the bullpen and also be available as back-ups in case of injurys or melt-downs.

Trades could change things, of course.

If Vargas would get $5 million, what will Bush and Capuano cost next year?

[areacodes]

I hope they resist the Gallardo thing. Keep him in the pen until he turns 24. Long reliever only I hope.

 

 

 

Why do you want to keep Gallardo in the pen? He has been a starter his entire career and he's to the point where he'll be able to pitch about 200IP next year and from there on out. I don't see any reason to keep Gallardo out of the rotation next year at all and I expect the Brewers feel the same way.

[lukevan]

They won't go after any starting pitching in FA, IMO. At this point, I'd say it's Bush traded so that we have a lefty in the rotation, though I can still see Melvin wanting the depth at SP that he learned he needed from '06. I think our SP depth could be questionable if we did trade one away. If Bush is on the team, I don't think there's any way he's not in the rotation, but my best guess for '08 would be:

 

1) Sheets (offer 4 yr / $60 mil early in the year if he's healthy)

2) Gallardo

3) Suppan

4) Villanueva

5) Capuano

 

6) Parra

7) ???

[endaround]

I see Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo as the top 3 starters at this point. I would assume that they will feel they have to have a left hander, Capuano and Parra would fight for that spot. Then Bush, Villanueva, and perhaps Vargas along with the loser of Capuano/Parra would fight it out for the final spot. Some of those that don't make the rotation could go to the bullpen and also be available as back-ups in case of injurys or melt-downs.

 

Trades could change things, of course.

 

If Vargas would get $5 million, what will Bush and Capuano cost next year?

Putting either Bush or Capuano in the bullpen is a waste of resources, they would be better off traded to improve the team. The only reason for that not happening is because Capunao's season caused his trade value to crash and Melvin wants to keep Bush for longer than 3 years.

Vargas is in his 3rd arby year so his number goes up and he got double digit wins. He might not get quite $5 million but it will be close. Capuano won't get much more than the $3.25 he made this year most likely, but he was once an All Star so its hard to predict. Bush will likely get around $2 million.

[falling off]

I'm not sure exactly how rich the FA market is going to be for starting pitchers...but I would be a little concerned if they didn't go after one in the off season. That's a glaring weakness if you ask me.

 

Unless you want to way overpay for Andy Pettite, I believe Carlos Silva is the best starter on the FA market. I don't think a pure sinkerballer would survive with our infield. I am fairly sure that our starting rotation for next year is already on our 40 man roster.

[Team Canada]

I'm not sure exactly how rich the FA market is going to be for starting pitchers...but I would be a little concerned if they didn't go after one in the off season. That's a glaring weakness if you ask me.

 

Seriously?

 

[splitterpfj]

Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo and Villanueva have to be in at this point, nothing else makes sense. I think Bush goes to the bullpen, Vargas goes to another team, and Cappy and Parra battle for the 5 spot.

[rluzinski]

Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo and Villanueva have to be in at this point, nothing else makes sense. I think Bush goes to the bullpen, Vargas goes to another team, and Cappy and Parra battle for the 5 spot.

 

I think you have the first 4 right but I'm not sure if it will be Capuano or Bush.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The free-agent pitcher list for this offseason is not inspiring...and there's always a lot of risk for a small-budget team in the free agent pitching market, due to the age of the players and their injury histories, combined with nearly-obligatory multi-year deals. . I don't see the Brewers in on Bartolo Colon, for example...and while I'd be interested in Freddy Garcia or willing to take a flier on a career ERA+ 90 guy like Josh Fogg or Rodrigo Lopez for cheap, free agency means you'll pay a lot of money to get a guy who may or may not be any better than Capuano or Bush. Or, for that matter, Vargas. An arby contract of $5M to Vargas doesn't seem so bad when you consider that it's only a one-year commitment...and that's coming from someone who's not a Vargas fan at all.

 

With this list, and current trends, a guy like Kyle Lohse is likely to get four years at Suppan or Lilly money. Given that the Brewers have two or three cheap youngsters who are likely to be better than Lohse, and several veterans with track records that are just as good, I don't see the point.

 

On the other hand, there are a lot of free agent catchers...

 

free agent list

[brettac1]

I think these guys are locks:

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Suppan

Villanueva

 

Then it comes down to one of Parra, Bush, and Capuano. Knowing that Ned likes to have a LHP in the rotation, it makes me think that the 5th spot will be Parra's. Vargas is a non-factor as far as I can see.

 

I personally would like to see Bush get another crack at 200 innings, but I don't think he's going to get it. He has taken a step back this year, even when adjusted for the porous defense's effect on his numbers. K rate down, BB rate up, HR rate up slightly. Maybe he's tired or something, but he's had a mediocre season, and he's not really going to be more than a 4th starter with how many bombs he serves up.

 

Either way, the depth they have is most definitely a strength going into next season. If they're able to get 200 IP out of Sheets and Gallardo, they will win 90 games next year. As another poster said, Silva is possibly the best FA option, but he would be a disaster with the Brewers IF defense.

[sbrylski]

I don't think Villanueva is quite a lock, especially if we don't add much to the bullpen this offseason.

 

I say Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Capuano, Bush - Villanueva and Parra in the pen to start. But as long as those 7 are in Milwaukee and Vargas is not, any combination is fine with me.

[RobertR]

The following four are a lock, IMO.

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Suppan

Villanueva

 

And I think the Brewers are going to give Capuano every opportunity to win the 5th starter spot, with Parra in the bullpen as his backup. Capuano's value is probably low enough that there's unlikely enough return to make trading him worthwhile.

 

I think Vargas and Bush are likely guys to be traded. Vargas will be attractive for a big market team looking for a 5th starter and Bush is young enough and has enough upside to interest lots of teams. Bush is probably most valuable in a big ballpark that cuts down on the longball.

 

Robert

[Patrick425]

Patrick425 wrote:

---

I'm not sure exactly how rich the FA market is going to be for starting pitchers...but I would be a little concerned if they didn't go after one in the off season. That's a glaring weakness if you ask me.

Unless you want to way overpay for Andy Pettite, I believe Carlos Silva is the best starter on the FA market. I don't think a pure sinkerballer would survive with our infield. I am fairly sure that our starting rotation for next year is already on our 40 man roster.

If that's true that's dissapointing.

 

Patrick425 wrote:

---

I'm not sure exactly how rich the FA market is going to be for starting pitchers...but I would be a little concerned if they didn't go after one in the off season. That's a glaring weakness if you ask me.

 

Seriously?

 

Was that supposed to be blue? If not, do you like our starting rotation? It would be nice to have an ace that you could rely on being healthy. Suppan is mediocre middle to end of the rotation innings eater. Villanueva and Gallardo are promising, but young and unproven. Bush Cappy, Vargas?...scary.

Brewer fans need to get out of this building a young team mentality. We are now a contending team and need to start acting like one. With the offense they have, that pitching staff may be enough to get them to the playoffs, but it won't go far beyond that. It will be depressing to me if the go into next season with some mix of the same starting pitchers they currently have.

 

 

[brettac1]

With the offense they have, that pitching staff may be enough to get them to the playoffs, but it won't go far beyond that. It will be depressing to me if the go into next season with some mix of the same starting pitchers they currently have.

 

The Cardinals had a 4.54 ERA last season. The Brewers have a 4.52 this season. The best team and the best pitching doesn't win very often. Anything can happen if you get in the playoffs, there is no tried and true way to win.

 

I think you're really underrating how the back-end of the Brewers rotation has been pretty much league average - last season, the average #4 starter in the NL had an ERA of 5.11 and the average #5 starter had an ERA of 6.26. The Brewers have a solid, unspectacular rotation, with guys who may very well bounce back next season in Bush and Capuano. They'll be just fine in the rotation next year if they use the same guys they have now.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

Villanueva should have been in the starting rotation this year. I don't feel that they had any real competition this Spring training, the positions were determined ahead of time. Carlos is a better starter than he is a reliever. He needs to be able to set up his pitches and keep hitters off balance. That is the MO of a starter. I think that four spots are set, barring injury. Sheets, Gallardo, Villanueva, and Suppan (not necessarily in that order). Capuano may have an advantage for that last spot because he is left-handed, but I don't think it is much of an advantage. I still think Capuano had some sort of injury (or extra-ordinary stiffness or tightness) early in the season that he decided to pitch through. I heard an interesting stat from Peter Gammons about a month ago when he said that Capuano led the Brewer staff in 1-2-3 innings. Maybe Capuano has a flaw in his delivery out of the stretch.

[Ennder]

Patrick425 wrote:

---

I'm not sure exactly how rich the FA market is going to be for starting pitchers...but I would be a little concerned if they didn't go after one in the off season. That's a glaring weakness if you ask me.

Unless you want to way overpay for Andy Pettite, I believe Carlos Silva is the best starter on the FA market. I don't think a pure sinkerballer would survive with our infield. I am fairly sure that our starting rotation for next year is already on our 40 man roster.

If that's true that's dissapointing.

 

Patrick425 wrote:

---

I'm not sure exactly how rich the FA market is going to be for starting pitchers...but I would be a little concerned if they didn't go after one in the off season. That's a glaring weakness if you ask me.

 

Seriously?

 

Was that supposed to be blue? If not, do you like our starting rotation? It would be nice to have an ace that you could rely on being healthy. Suppan is mediocre middle to end of the rotation innings eater. Villanueva and Gallardo are promising, but young and unproven. Bush Cappy, Vargas?...scary.

Brewer fans need to get out of this building a young team mentality. We are now a contending team and need to start acting like one. With the offense they have, that pitching staff may be enough to get them to the playoffs, but it won't go far beyond that. It will be depressing to me if the go into next season with some mix of the same starting pitchers they currently have.

 

 

 

You can blame the defense more than the pitching. Capuano and Bush have 3 year numbers that would put them as #4 SP's on most teams. You have an ace, 2 young promising pitchers and a few #4's. I really don't see them upgrading the SP.

[1992casey]

I don't feel that they had any real competition this Spring training, the positions were determined ahead of time.

That's really how it should be, though. Guys might be working on a new pitch, or they may be told by coaches to throw x amount of one pitch, y amount of another, etc. Also, game plans aren't set up to beat the other team; they're set up to get players ready for the championship season. Those things, along with small samples, skew the stats that fans are privy to.

 

If velocity suddenly drops off or control has gone haywire, you then have a case for changing course. And with control, you still have to be careful. Some pitchers just don't do all that well in the "Arizona air". Pitches that are likely to work almost everywhere else don't always work in Marydale.