Suppan - Could it be possible?

[TooLiveBrew]

The point that's being made, WCB, is that the defense is the reason for our pitching woes. Our pitching was quite good in major areas this year - in terms of ranks in the NL. And the offense was, obviously, too. The major area in which the team needs to improve is on defense. Even just average defensive work this season, and the Crew would in all likelihood still be playing.

[Gopher74]

I'm confused about your referencing of that link, Gopher. It's an article about HRs & FIP, not FIP related to ground-ball pitchers. A quick stat search at THT shows what I would have guessed - that guys with high GB% have both high-ish and low-ish FIPs. In fact, descending the FIPs of qualified (as in, IP) pitchers shows that those who have the higher FIPs tend to have the lower GB%. I'm honestly confused as to what your point was in that post, not trying to 'call you out.'

Simply pointing out that of the pitchers in there, there's really not a lot of consistency with FIP's to ERA's.

 

I just don't think that there's that much to it.

 

Suppan was nearly flawless last year in the second half, and his three year average was 3.95, so I just don't buy that he was better last year.

 

I just think it's too flawed. IMO, while he had more K's this year, he also gave up a LOT more hits, a higher Whip, his K/BB ratio was better three of the last four years...

 

So yea, I just don't believe that this was Jeff Suppan at his best or even norm. I'm under no illusions that he's a great pitcher, but I do think he's a number 3, and a 4.00-ish type guy.

[Gopher74]

Complete speculation on my part, but I'd be interested in other opinions. Assuming Suppan finishes the season strong, do you try to move him in the offseason? In no particular order (after Sheets), we have reasonable SP depth:

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Villanueva

Capuano

Bush

Vargas

Parra

Jackson

 

Is this the way to find another high-level prospect (or two) and a bullpen arm and take his salary off the books in order to extend Sheets (or lock up a couple of young gun long-term prior to arbitration years)? Or find that "perfect" replacement for Menchkins? A month ago, I'm not sure anyone thought he'd bring enough value in return. But with a strong finish....? What say everyone?

Anyway, I absolutely think that Jeff Suppan could be traded next year. In fact, I think it's more likely than not.

 

I just compare this to when the Marlins went after Delgado.

 

He(Suppan) gets paid 15 million the first two years, and he gets 25 million the following two years.

He has a no trade clause for those first two years. Then? Only a partial no-trade.

Oh, and by the way, the Brewers ace just so happens to be a free agent that year. Shocking, huh?

I could honestly envision him not even being one of our top 5 starters by then. I mean, you have to use your imaginationhttp://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif, but I could see Sheets obviously, Gallardo, Villy, and Parra all being better, and if Cappy bounces back to his form from the prior two years, he's at least as good.

 

Now chances are someone's going to fall apart, get hurt, whatever. But it becomes Suppan vs Sheets. I'd rather keep Sheets as long as his arm is healthy. Maybe I'm just thick, but I've still got confidence that he's going to bounce back.

[endaround]

I'm confused about your referencing of that link, Gopher. It's an article about HRs & FIP, not FIP related to ground-ball pitchers. A quick stat search at THT shows what I would have guessed - that guys with high GB% have both high-ish and low-ish FIPs. In fact, descending the FIPs of qualified (as in, IP) pitchers shows that those who have the higher FIPs tend to have the lower GB%. I'm honestly confused as to what your point was in that post, not trying to 'call you out.'

Simply pointing out that of the pitchers in there, there's really not a lot of consistency with FIP's to ERA's.

 

I just don't think that there's that much to it.

 

Suppan was nearly flawless last year in the second half, and his three year average was 3.95, so I just don't buy that he was better last year.

 

I just think it's too flawed. IMO, while he had more K's this year, he also gave up a LOT more hits, a higher Whip, his K/BB ratio was better three of the last four years...

 

So yea, I just don't believe that this was Jeff Suppan at his best or even norm. I'm under no illusions that he's a great pitcher, but I do think he's a number 3, and a 4.00-ish type guy.

You're missing the entire point about FIP if you compare it to ERAs. Its not meant to show ERA, its meant to show what the pitcher controlled. Pitchers have very little control over BABIP after you account for the type of pitcher. Suppan gave up more hits because his defense sucks compared to last year.

 

[Fatter than Joey]

I have read so many negative posts about this team, especially about our defense. We lost more games for reasons other than defense.

 

Defense is probably culprit #1, if not its in the top 3.

 

It's a team game, not one player or play cost this team a chance to make playoffs, we are young and will only get better.

 

If you read this thread -- No poster is singling out one player, rather pointing out that our TEAM effort is subpar -- you throw in Hall who was bad in CF, and it is no wonder Suppan's results suffered.

 

We clearly need to improve in many areas, but defense is not the main concern just one part of the solution including consistent pitching and hitting for next year.

 

I would agree that D is never going to be a big concern for a DM ran team, but if our IF was average --- instead of worst, we are probably enjoying meaningful games in October.