Upcoming pitching matchups

[Vgmastr]

I was just looking at the schedules for the Crew and Cubs, and looking at potential opposing starters for both teams.

 

-The Cubs get Arroyo and Harang tomorrow and Tuesday. If the rotation holds up, they will also have to face both pitchers in their final series of the year.

 

-Oswalt will be leaving the club this week to be with his wife as she gives birth on Tuesday. Thus, we won't be facing him like we were supposed to on Wednesday. We get rookie Juan Gutierrez instead.

 

-We will, however, have to face both Hudson and Smoltz in Atlanta.

 

-Peavy pitched today. With no off days left for the Padres, that puts his next two starts on Friday the 21st and Wednesday the 26th, the day before the final four in Milwaukee. The only way Peavy pitches in that last series if he does so on three days rest at some point. Hopefully the Padres either have a playoff spot clinched or are out of the race by then, so they don't feel the need to pitch him in the final game of the season.

 

I don't know how much of this will hold up with rotation shuffling or injuries, but it's fun to finally be looking ahead to things like this in the final two weeks of the season.

[brewcrewkid14]

Yeah, I can say we've definitely caught a few breaks in the matchups for the last few weeks, as at first it looked as if we were going to have quite a few tough matchups. I don't think in the long run it matters though. We just have to be able to hit the ball.

 

I suppose it might help a little. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

Any clue if Hudson and/or Smoltz will get shut down if the Braves are officially out of it. Have either had nagging injuries or anything lately? Our schedule seems pretty soft other than that Braves series on the road. That one really scares me.

The Padres at home don't bother me as much as they play a lot better at home just like we do and I think they'll have their playoff spot wrapped up by then so we won't face Peavy.

[AJAY]

From JS Online

 

 

As it turns out, the Brewers will be facing three rookie pitchers in Houston, not two, this week.

 

Beyond scratching Roy Oswalt due to the pending birth of a baby, the Astros are removing veteran right-hander Woody Williams (8-15, 5.04) from the rotation to give rookie Felipe Paulino a shot.

 

Paulino has a 11.25 ERA in two relief outings for the Astros, including one against Milwaukee in which he surrendered three home runs a couple of weeks ago.

 

So, the Brewers will be facing Matt Albers, Felipe Paulino and Juan Gutierrez in that series. That won't leave many excuses if they don't win the series.

[brettac1]

Toss in that Houston seems to be the one road stadium that they can play in, and I expect no less than 2 of 3.

[brewcrewkid14]

Could the argument be made that CC is rootin' for the Crew to make the playoffs?

 

Just kidding, but seriously that is a gift (or at least we'd hope, sometimes we struggle against guys like that).

[BrewCityUnit]

This is the best thread I have read in a long time.

[thablingster]

I was bored the other day and projected out what our rotation will look like for the rest of the year.

 

I feel comfortable with Gallardo and Sheets pitching in Houston, Bush scares me. Suppan vs. Cormier Thursday seems to favor us, with Villanueva-Hudson, Gallardo-Smoltz seeming to favor the Braves slightly, while Sheets-Reyes definitely favors us. Bush-Wells (if they start him) is a toss up, Suppan-Wainwright, and Villanueva-Looper is what we're looking at for the Cards series. That leaves us Gallardo-Germano/Cassel, Sheets-Maddux, Bush-Young, and Suppan-Tomko/Peavy.

 

Those matchups of course are made thinking no changes will be made, which of course there will be, lol. It's a tough road, but it is definitely possible for us to win a good number of these ballgames.

[Ennder]

Looking at that list the only game that is a knockout bad matchup is Bush vs Young and even that is at home where Bush thrives and Young struggles. I'm pretty happy with that list.

 

I don't think there is a game in that list that isn't winnable.

[dlk9s]

Congratulations to Daddy and Mommy Oswalt! Good for you being with your family, Roy! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

We have actually done fairly well against Oswalt this year, I believe. I'm always a bit nervous when the Brewers have to face a guy they don't know.

[endaround]

Rather face Williams than a guy getting his first start.

[twobrewers]

Rather face Williams than a guy getting his first start.

God I wish statements like that weren't so true.

 

Brewers are horrible against guys making their first start.

[And That]

Dare I say that this Houston series, given the pitching matchups, is a "must-sweep"?

[tigerbrew]

The Cubs will be facing Arroyo and Harang in their next 2 games, more favorable news for the Brewers. Go Reds!

[The Ignitor]

With the pitching matchups over the next 4 games (3 in Houston, and the first in Atlanta), these four games become critical opportunities for victory. I know one can never expect a sweep (especially on the road) or a winning streak, but if ever there was an opportunity, these next four games are it. By my count, this team needs to win 9 more games this season to win or tie in the division. It sure would make it easier if they placed these first four games of the road-trip into that win bank. Then if they can pick off one more against Atlanta, and take 2 or 3 versus St. Louis and 2 of 4 versus San Diego. they'll hit that magic number of 85.

[billyhallfan]

As it turns out, the Brewers will be facing three rookie pitchers in Houston, not two, this week.

 

this is excellent news, i thought that milwaukee was going to have to face every single ace, but this makes me feel a lot better. That being said, Chris Young and Greg Maddux aren't easy, and I can almost bet that Peavy will be pitching on 3 days.

[brettac1]

The Padres pitchers tend to struggle away from Petco. Maddux has a 4.61 ERA on the road, and Young's ERA is almost three runs higher (it's still only 4.11, though).

[clancyphile]

Dare I say that this Houston series, given the pitching matchups, is a "must-sweep"?

I would agree.

[Fatter than Joey]

Brewers are horrible against guys making their first start.

 

and guys with broken legs

[naivin]

I think Houston is pretty close to must sweep. With the Brewers having no more off days, we have reached the point in the season where loss column is actually relevant, because at this point the Cubs are two wins ahead of us. Given the Brewers' record, it seems logical to assume they will win one and lose one of those extra games - leaving the matgin for error at zero. If we can make up some ground on thr front end of this week, and pull even or ahead, I think we'll have a shot in the final week. However, if we fail to pick up ground prior to heading to Atlanta with the Cubs hosting teh Pirates, where I feel we are likely to lose another game or so, I think the deficite heading into teh final week will be too wide for the Brewers to make up.

[rluzinski]

Rather face Williams than a guy getting his first start.

God I wish statements like that weren't so true.

 

Brewers are horrible against guys making their first start.

I'd love to see proof that the Brewers are worse than expected against guys making their first start. I think it's just people having unrealistic expectations in that situation.

Dare I say that this Houston series, given the pitching matchups, is a "must-sweep"?

 

Even if you consider the pitching matchups, the odds of a sweep are probably less than 30%. I'd love a sweep but two out of three would be a fine outcome in my book.

[jeffy]

If 9 wins are needed, it will be tough. 4-3 road trip and 5-2 homestand would get there, but when is the last time this team had a winning road trip?

 

But you never know, maybe the Cubs will go 5-7 and the the Brewers will only need 8-6 to win outright or 7-7 to force a one game playoff.

[The Ignitor]

85 wins has been my target for about 3 weeks (In fact, I started a countdown sometime ago, that unfortunately got stuck on 11 for a couple games too many). That's what it will likely take to win this thing (and it still might not get it done). If you look at the Cubs remaining schedule, I see barring an implosion (which is always possible with the Cubs), that the Cubs finish no worse than 7-5 down the stretch (and realistically have a good chance of going 8-4). 7-5 puts the Cubs final record at 85-77. To match that record, the Crew has to go 9-5. As Russ points out, it's hard to count on a sweep of any sort, but the Brewers have to make up for the losing series in Pittsburgh somehow, and with these pitching match ups, this team needs to find away to win the next four games before they hit some good pitching against Atlanta, St Louis (those matchups, if things hold, don't look easy), and San Diego, which will likely start Young, Maddux, and Peavy. They need a big 4-game down payment against favorable pitching match ups early this week to even have a shot of finding 5-victories against tougher pitching later this week and next week.

 

I hate to say, but this thing is really the Cubs to lose at this point, given their schedule, ours, and their 1 game lead. That last Pittsburgh game (where they came back, only to blow it big in the 8th) might just end up being the final margin in the division.

[rluzinski]

I'm trying to account for the favorable pitching matchups for the Brewers this series. I usually just look at average runs scored and runs against per game to come up with my probabilities but that pretends that a team's average starter is going each game. Over 20+ games, that's a fair assumption but for a 3 game series it's a very poor one. If I take out just the starters' contribution to "runs against" and replace it with some guesses, we can begin to see the effects of the starting pitchers on he win probabilities.

Here are the averages for the Brewers and Astros so far

		Starter				Reliever
	Games	Runs	RA	IP	IP/St	Runs	RA	IP
Brewers	148	467	4.94	850.7	5.7	251	4.84	466.3
Astros	149	495	5.04	883.3	5.9	261	5.05	465.3

Being generous to the Brewers and assuming a a 4.25 RA (runs average, not earned runs average) for the Brewers' starting pitchers and a 6.25 RA for the Astros and leaving the offense and reliever performances alone, I get a win probability for each game of 62.1% for the Crew (my normal way puts it at 52.5%). That works out to the following series probabilities:

Sweep: 24%
2 of 3: 44%
1 of 3: 27%
swept: 5%

2 in 3 chance of winning the series.

[pogokat]

sweet...i get to see smoltz versus gallardo? that's gonna rock