Feature story: 2007 Draft recap, early 2008 preview

[colbyjack]

Check out the homepage for my annual draft recap and early draft preview story:

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=269

EDIT: Fixed link...

[DHonks]

thank you Patrick...a great read!

 

One question that I have that I think you could clarify. If the Brewers do not pick up Jenkins' option, he does not immediately become a free agent. They are simply choosing not to pick up the option. So the Brewers can still offer arbitration and land a draft pick if he signs elsewhere, right? Al and some others have said that I am wrong, but I cannot understand why. When a contract expires, a player can go through arbitration or become a free agent or get re-signed. So technically since the declining of the option does not make one immediately a free agent, couldn't we offer Geoff arbitration (knowing that some team will give him 2-3 years, and he'll take it rather than be in a platoon)?

[GagneCY03]

Also just read the article. Keep that '08 Draft content coming!

[colbyjack]

DHonks, that's a good question, and unfortunately one that I'm not entirely sure of. I would side more with Al and others as I can't think of a single example of a player whose option was not picked up that was offered arbitration and therefore garnered comp picks. If the team doesn't pick up Jenkins' option, why would they offer him arby?

 

I just got my recent issue of Baseball America in the mail today, and they offered their top 20 prospects for the 2008 draft at both the high school and college levels. Since I added my own top 12 prospects from the high school and college levels, I thought I'd show them both here to give an idea of who the top prospects for next June are:

 

High School:

 

Mine:

1. Tim Melville, RHP, Wentzville (MO)

2. Tim Beckham, SS, Kennesaw (GA)

3. Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, Long Beach (CA)

4. Alex Meyer, RHP, Greensburg (IN)

5. Isaac Galloway, OF, Rancho Cucamonga (CA)

6. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Cooper City (FL)

7. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Santa Ana (CA)

8. Kyle Skipworth, C, Riverside (CA)

9. Harold Martinez, SS, Miami (FL)

10. Ethan Martin, 3B, Toccoa (GA)

11. Kyle Long, LHP, Ivy (VA)

12. Sonny Gray, RHP, Smyrna (TN)

 

Baseball America's:

1. Melville

2. Beckham

3. Martinez

4. Hosmer

5. Meyer

6. Gray

7. Kyle Kobstein, LHP, Flagstaff (AZ)

8. Skipworth

9. Cole

10. Hicks

11. Galloway

12. Jarrett Martin, LHP, Bakersfield (CA)

 

College

 

Mine:

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

2. Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

3. Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

4. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami

5. Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

6. Cole St. Clair, LHP, Rice

7. Lance Lynn, RHP, Mississippi

8. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky

9. Tyson Ross, RHP, California

10. Jacob Thompson, RHP, Virginia

11. Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine

12. Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA

 

Baseball America's:

1. Alvarez

2. Crow

3. Smoak

4. Matusz

5. Alonso

6. Friedrich

7. Ross

8. Scott Green, RHP, Kentucky

9. Hunter

10. Thompson

11. Dennis Raben, 1B/OF, Miami

12. Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

 

PGCrosschecker also updated their top 1,000 high school prospects for 2008 late last week. They listed their top 10 in an animated GIF, the rest of the list and scouting reports are subscriber based:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/

 

1. Beckham

2. Melville

3. Skipworth

4. Cole

5. Martinez

6. Hosmer

7. Martin

8. Palazzone

9. Brett DeVall, LHP, Panama City (FL)

10. Meyer

[CW11]

Well, I have read these forums for over 3 years and have finally decided to set up a user name because I can't take simply reading about the draft any longer without putting in my own 2 cents. As a side note, I am a Tigers fan.

 

 

I agree with the preliminary consesus for the '08 draft: that the HS talent for both pitchers and position players far exceeds the College talent (aside from Smoak and Alvarez). The college pitching crop looks even weaker than the 2007 crop, which was pretty bad to begin with.

 

However, with almost 9 months to go before draft day, I think the overwhelming strength, as Patrick mentioned, is First Basemen, particularly lefty power hitters. There appear to be at least 9 players that could get 1st round or 1st round supplement grades on draft day:

 

Pedro Alvarez if he has to move from 3rd

Justin Smoak

Yonder Alonso

 

Brett Wallace

Eric Hosmer

Allan Dykstra

 

Kyle Long

Ike Davis if he cannot handle the OF in the minors

Dennis Raben

 

It looks like Smoak, Alvarez, and Alonso are all really in a class of their own, but I personally wouldn't mind getting a crack at one of Wallace, Hosmer, or Dykstra either. While these 9 appear to have first round potential, I would bet that at least 3 will drop significantly given the lack of emphasis on 1Bers so high in the draft. So, it looks like some darn good hitters could be had in the 2nd round or even later.

 

 

 

Also, while the great potential of the SS high schoolers has been mentioned, I am also very intrigued by the prep OFers. Galloway and Hicks rightfully get alot of press, but Destin Hood, Xavier Avery, Anthony Gose, Wesley Freeman, and Robbie Grossman all fit the similar athletic/raw mold as Galloway and Hicks. They will be interesting players to follow to see how they develop their senior years.

[DHonks]

Colby, to me it would be logical. In arbitration, Geoff would get 1 year of platooning at around $7-8 million. Yet he's had a solid enough year that someone will give him 2-3 years and $20-25 million

[colbyjack]

Welcome aboard CW11. Glad you found us. I know there was another Tigers fan, whose name escapes me now, that posted on here from time to time not too long ago.

 

And as a Tigers fan I'm sure you're excited about the depth of first basemen. Just a few quick notes:

 

Pedro Alvarez only plays first in the event that his organization already has a stud at the hot corner, a la Mark Teixeira when he came up with the Rangers with Hank Blalock just making himself warm at third. I've seen Alvarez play quite a few times now, including a couple of times in person, and I really like the way he handles himself defensively. He doesn't have the most ideal range and quickness, but he has very good natural instincts, handles the ball well and makes strong and accurate throws. I've seen a few places question his future position, and I think that's more of a copy-cat subject line if you know what I mean.

 

I think Kyle Long's future is on the mound. Scouts are probably going to prefer a 6'8" lefty that throws 96, no matter how much power he projects to hit for. If he doesn't get drafted early as a lefty, I think he attends FSU.

 

Wallace's body and overall ceiling is going to keep him from being a first-rounder, unless the A's, Padres or Blue Jays have early, extra picks. I actually really like Wallace, and think he gets thrown under the bus more than he deserves to, and I think he's one of the better bets to hit at the big-league level. His ceiling may be closer to someone like Scott Hatteberg, but there's nothing wrong with that.

 

Not a big fan of Dykstra. A little too big and a little too stiff. He can hit them a ton, but I'm concerned with his ability to hit for average.

 

As for the prep hitters, I really think Aaron Hicks is going to separate himself from everyone else next spring based on his athleticism. He really is in a class of his own in that regard. And he (as well as Galloway) really aren't that raw either. They do a lot of the little things really well, and have been playing the game against some stiff competition for quite some time now.

[GagneCY03]

This draft certainly isnt short on prep Shortstops and Outfielders. I'm really hoping Harold Martinez falls to the Dodgers, who figure to pick around #20. CJ, who are the most polished hitters in the HS class? Is Martinez on that short list?

[colbyjack]

Hosmer, Martinez and Skipworth would be on the short list of the most polished prep hitters. Hosmer is the most polished.

[GagneCY03]

Good to hear that. Martinez showed a good eye at the AFLAC game, so I was hoping that he had a patient approach.

[colbyjack]

Related to the success of the 2007 draft, Allan Simpson has a new story up on PGCrosschecker that breaks down the best performers from the '07 draft currently up on their homepage:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2007/checklists/firstyear_checklist.aspx

 

Jonathan Lucroy's debut had him ranked as the 9th best college draftee, the 2nd best catcher.

 

Caleb Gindl was ranked the best high school draftee overall, and of course among the best outfielders.

 

Matt LaPorta named to the third-team trio of outfielders.

 

Eric Farris was ranked the fourth-best second baseman.

 

As the story points out, the signing deadline and the subsequent delay of the signings of many of the top drafted talents meant that many to most of the top players didn't make their debuts, and if they did they didn't play very much at all. Even then, as the story continues to point out, even the players that did sign and put in substantial playing time this summer didn't have the greatest results.

 

Which makes the selection of Caleb Gindl just look that much more astute.

[CW11]

As for the prep hitters, I really think Aaron Hicks is going to separate himself from everyone else next spring based on his athleticism. He really is in a class of his own in that regard. And he (as well as Galloway) really aren't that raw either. They do a lot of the little things really well, and have been playing the game against some stiff competition for quite some time now.

Hicks interests me as well. Given his smaller statutre, do you project him to hit for decent power down the road, or is he more of a leadoff hitter (or both a la Sizemore or Granderson).

 

Also, Colby, this isn't meant to sound demanding, but I was curious when you think you will be putting up the 2008 draft page/profiles. It really is something I look forward to.

[colbyjack]

I think Hicks could have power similar to guys like Crawford and Reyes, guys who sustain a pretty high SLG despite not hitting a ton of HRs. Granderson and Sizemore could be good examples as well, but those guys are more in the 20-30 HR range while Hicks is more of a 10-20 guy with 30-40 doubles and 8-15 triples. Actually a good comp for him at the college level might be Jemile Weeks, although Hicks has several inches on Jemile, but they're both switch hitters with similar tool-sets, although Hicks' arm could very be an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale.

 

I'm working on the writing up the top 30 draft eligible prospects, and hope to get to bugging our webmaster about this sometime in the next few weeks. I'll start with 30, and similar to last year, I hope to have 100 up sometime around the New Year.

[CW11]

I'm working on the writing up the top 30 draft eligible prospects, and hope to get to bugging our webmaster about this sometime in the next few weeks. I'll start with 30, and similar to last year, I hope to have 100 up sometime around the New Year.

That is great...thanks alot.

 

[colbyjack]

My associates at PGCC, Allan Simpson and David Rawnsley, have released their early top 100 draft eligible prospects for the 2008 draft. While the content is for subscribers, I will say they have somewhat of a surprise at #1 in Brian Matusz (not that huge of a surprise, as he's my #2, but most seem to think Pedro Alvarez is a shoe-in for taking top prospect honors).

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2008/top_prospects/top100draftprospects1.aspx

[GagneCY03]

Yeah, just saw the list today. Was really surprised to see Matusz over Alvarez, but I'm a fan of Matusz. Also, do you see Brandon Crawford rising as the draft approaches?

[colbyjack]

Sorry I missed this before Gagne. Crawford certainly could rise, and I think he's already considered a first-rounder for the most part. He reminds me a lot of Stephen Drew as a left-handed hitting, five-tool shortstop.

 

However, he hasn't fared very well over the summer hitting with a wood bat with Team USA in 2006 and on the Cape this past summer. He struck out 45 times on the Cape in 132 ABs, and he also has struck out more than you would like to see during his springs at UCLA (160 Ks in total between two springs and his two summers in 657 total ABs).

 

So while he could rise up with a big junior season, and I think he's poised to have a big spring, I also think there are quite a few aspects to his game that are in question.

[GagneCY03]

Sorry I missed this before Gagne. Crawford certainly could rise, and I think he's already considered a first-rounder for the most part. He reminds me a lot of Stephen Drew as a left-handed hitting, five-tool shortstop.

 

However, he hasn't fared very well over the summer hitting with a wood bat with Team USA in 2006 and on the Cape this past summer. He struck out 45 times on the Cape in 132 ABs, and he also has struck out more than you would like to see during his springs at UCLA (160 Ks in total between two springs and his two summers in 657 total ABs).

 

So while he could rise up with a big junior season, and I think he's poised to have a big spring, I also think there are quite a few aspects to his game that are in question.

 

What other aspects of his game are in question? I read that his defense could use some improvement as he relies on his arm strength too much. I havent seen him play much but he's definitely one of my favorite college prospects.

[colbyjack]

Crawford, like Stephen Drew coming out of college, is probably going to have some people question his defensive skills. He's smooth at the position from what I have seen and heard, and has a strong throwing arm as you point out. He has a tendency to make the highlight reel play but then botch the routine one (which is the opposite of Drew), but this seems to be a common complaint about amateur shortstops. His range is better than Drew's, but it's not on the level of the elite MLB shortstops. I personally don't think his defense is going to be an issue at all.

 

With another big spring he could easily go among the top 5-10 picks. A huge spring could mean the top 2-3 picks really, depending on who advises him (I hate to throw out the "Boras" label, but I remember he was an incredibly talented player out of high school that was deemed unsignable).

[colbyjack]

Allan Simpson reveals in his day two notebook covering the Jupiter tournament that prep RHP Gerrit Cole pitched in the 96-97 range with very good life on his fastball, while also showing very good command of his breaking pitch and his changeup:

 

http://www.worldwoodbat.com/NewsDetails.aspx?id=599

[EbbaStClaire]

Will there be a list of the best Junior College players available for the 2008 draft like there is for high school and college players?

[colbyjack]

No, I wouldn't expect a top prospect list for the Juco players anytime soon. So little is known about these players, and now that there is no DFE process, scouting publications have a harder time getting a grasp on the Juco players that are worth paying attention to. We'll learn more and more about these next spring as players start to emerge, but again, right now it is more difficult to identify those players.