Backend of Bullpen, C, LF outlook for '08

[RobertR]

I'm not too concerned about LF and C. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Damian Miller return at a discount. And Gross and a righthanded platoon partner, there's really not much that separates any of them, probably can handle leftfield with little falloff. Pick the right platoon partner and the OBP there may increase.

 

The bullpen OTOH needs a lot of work. Closers are generally overrated, but not when a game or two can make the difference between the post-season or staying home.

 

I expect that Melvin will likely be looking to trade some starting pitching to fill in some holes. You can pencil in Sheets, Suppan, and Gallardo into the starting rotation next year already, but between Parra, Villanueva, Bush, Vargas, and Capuano you have some surplus to work with. Zach Jackson might draw some interest too. (Matt Gamel's name might come up considering his defensive struggles, as well.)

 

Starting pitching is always one of the most valuable assets to have. And the most tradable.

 

It really wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers are still interested in Otsuka if they determine he's healthy. And I suspect Chad Cordero will at least be dangled. The Brewers were apparently interested in Gagne at the trade deadline and they might consider him during free agency as well.

 

Robert

[logan82]

I think Shouse and a good right hander would be more important than an actual closer. A closer doesn't necessarily pitch in the toughest situations. I also think we are "stuck" with Estrada. Lf I am not sure about. I think they would be best off keeping Jenkins and using all their outfielders like they have recently with Gross/Hall playing in a kind of platoon.

[LouisEly]

Everybody gripes about how bad Estrada is, but if you can find a catcher with above-average offensive and defensive capabilities that can be signed as a free agent for cheap or traded for TGJ I'll personally hand-deliver Sasquatch to your front door. The Braves got Texiera for Saltolamacchia (apologies for spelling on both of them), and he hasn't even proven himself in the majors yet.

 

Reality check - the list of catchers that are at least average both offensively and defensively is a very short list. As bad as Moeller was, he has been up in the majors with two teams this year. As maligned as Hank White was, he's still in the bigs. Just about every catcher they've had the last five years is still in the majors. All but a handful of catchers are mediocre at best, and the few that aren't will cost you a lot.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the point in hoping for change away from Estrada is that he's not exactly cheap. I know market values have gone up, but he's likely to get at least $5 mil in arbitration. I simply feel we can get a backstop that's significantly better defensively, and - at worst - a slight downgrade offensively (due to OBP's great value) for much cheaper than $5 mil./year. And I will honestly take a C who is much better defensively for such an offensive downgrade. C is the one position where that can really be justified. I'm not talking about a .215 hitter, but someone that hits in the .250/.260 neighborhood and actually works a pitcher & can draw some BBs.

[logan82]

Actually when you look back most of the catchers we have had recently are still in MLB, for at least part of the season, while many of our previous position players and pitchers are out of baseball.

[bork]

I estimate the Brewers at about $62 million next year, assuming arby increases, and Jenkins, Cordero, Linebrink, Graffy, Miller and Koskie gone. Getting rid of Mench and Vargas could net another $8 million? So there is money to work with next year. With the huge profit this year, I'd be shocked if payroll wasn't north of $70. So $10-20 million to work with next year.

 

I could see the Brewers trying to resign either Cordero or Linebrink. Or else spending some money on a veteran. Bullpen could be one area where the Brewers spend some money. I could also see Ray King re-signing. If King is a LOOGY, then Shouse could be more of a setup man.

 

I wouldn't mind a Gross/Mench platoon in left. The only way I see Jenkins is back is if he agrees to a lesser deal. I just hope the Brewers don't try to go after some speedy CF-type again.

 

We're probably stuck with Estrada at C again. It would be nice to get a defensive backup. If the young hitters continue to progress, lack of hitting at catcher may not hurt as much as it did in the past (Espcially if Babe Gallardo is pitching).

[logan82]

I could see the Brewers trying to resign either Cordero or Linebrink. Or else spending some money on a veteran. Bullpen could be one area where the Brewers spend some money.

The biggest problem, outside of general inconsistency of relief pitching, with signing either is they would more than likley require more than one year deals. So we might be able to afford them for next year, but after that we would be short money to give extentions to our young infield. They are going to require lots of money to keep together even through their arbitration years. Next year is really not the problem. It will be 2-3 years from now.

[twobrewers]

I could see the Brewers trying to resign either Cordero or Linebrink. Or else spending some money on a veteran. Bullpen could be one area where the Brewers spend some money.

Correct me if I am wrong...

 

But since Cordero and Linebrink are both Type A Free Agents - when we lose them we will get two draft choices for each. One pick from the team that signs them - and then a sandwich pick between the first and second round which is awarded from MLB.

 

So wouldn't we be better off NOT signing them, taking our two picks - and then signing someone elses Type A Free Agent?

 

That way we would get two picks for losing Cordero - but only give up one to sign another player of his quality...

[igor67]

I posted awhile ago, but the Captain's AA numbers this year translate without any projection into better offense than Estrada, and I'd be shocked if his defense wasn't much better. I fully advocate going that route and spending the money elsewhere.

[TooLiveBrew]

how does a .672 OPS at AA translate into better offense than Estrada?

[mothershipconnection]

So there is money to work with next year. With the huge profit this year, I'd be shocked if payroll wasn't north of $70. So $10-20 million to work with next year.

Our best bet with salary flexibility is to obtain a player via trade with a sizeable contract but only 2 years remaining - like Carlos Lee when we got him. The flexibility is unlikely to last very long because of raises due to our young core down the road. A 4-5 year deal for a quality player may put the team in a position to be unable to afford to keep the young guys.

 

But since Cordero and Linebrink are both Type A Free Agents - when we lose them we will get two draft choices for each. One pick from the team that signs them - and then a sandwich pick between the first and second round which is awarded from MLB.

I'm no expert, but while Cordero should be a lock, I don't know if new rules will make Linebrink a type A or B.

[giffted1]

As much as I wouldn't want to throw money at a reliever in free agency, I think its something that might have to be done. Without Cordero and Linebrink our pen will be extremely thin.

 

Going into the season with Turnbow and Shouse at the back end of our pen is a recipe for disaster. Turnbow has been painfully inconsistent, and while Shouse has been good this year, I wouldn't expect him to continue this level of performance considering his career numbers. Our "Bulllpen Advisory System" without Cordero and Linebrink and with Shouse going back to career norms would warrant building a bomb shelter.

 

Taking the trade route is also an option, but it will be an expensive option if we're trying to acquire a solid reliever. We had to deal our top pitching prospect for a few months of Linebrink...someone like Chad Cordero would demand a much steeper price.

 

The Brewers are probably going to have some cash to work with this offseason, and I think some of it has to be on a reliever even if we have to grossly overpay for one.

[logan82]

I have given it some thought and since managers in general do not use their closer properly we might be better off making Turnbow the closer. That way we can designate our best LH reliever and RH reliever as "stoppers." We then could use them in the highest leverage and thus most important situations. This is one area where the Cubs have been lucky in that their best reliever might be considered Marmol but since he is young he does not get the closer designation. Just a thought.

[Jay Zahn]

Last I checked the Brewers were above average in runs allowed in innings 1-5 (compared to other teams allowed in each inning) but below average in innings 6-9. Looking at that and the blown leads this has been a below average bullpen.

 

Maybe it's wiser to take Cordero's money and other resources and get some depth. I don't recommend winging it with a bunch of McClungs.

[jeffy]

The bullpen OTOH needs a lot of work. Closers are generally overrated, but not when a game or two can make the difference between the post-season or staying home.

 

I expect that Melvin will likely be looking to trade some starting pitching to fill in some holes. You can pencil in Sheets, Suppan, and Gallardo into the starting rotation next year already, but between Parra, Villanueva, Bush, Vargas, and Capuano you have some surplus to work with.

If two of Parra, Villanueva, Bush, Vargas, and Capuano fill out the starting rotation the other 3 could go to the bullpen, rather than being traded.

[GAME05]

just wanted to add this list of FA bullpen/closer guys. Per usual, not eye-popping, which is why i think there will be a big effort to bring back Linebrink, even if we overpay. Otherwise with both CoCo and Linebrink gone, we'd have a pretty sorry-looking pen next year.

Closers:
Armando Benitez (35)
Joe Borowski (37) - $4MM club option for '08
Francisco Cordero (33)
Octavio Dotel (32) - $5.5MM mutual option for '08
Eric Gagne (32)
Jason Isringhausen (35) - $8MM club option for '08
Todd Jones (40)
Al Reyes (37) - $1MM club option for '08
Mariano Rivera (38)
Bob Wickman (39)

Middle relievers:
Jeremy Affeldt (29)
Antonio Alfonseca (36)
LaTroy Hawkins (35)
Jorge Julio (29)
Joe Kennedy (29)
Scott Linebrink (31)
Troy Percival (39)
David Riske (31) - $2.85MM club option for '08
Russ Springer (39)
Julian Tavarez (35) - $3.85MM club option for '08
Mike Timlin (42)
Luis Vizcaino (31)
Kerry Wood (31)

[Diskono]

LF - $9m is way too much for a platoon player. I'm fine with Gross/Mench as long as we stick to a straight platoon and don't freak out when one of them goes 2-20 in a week.

 

C - I think Estrada will be back, and I suspect Miller will sign a 1-year deal if he doesn't retire. If Miller is gone, Mike Rivera would do just fine as a backup, and hopefully challenge Estrada for a more significant chunk of playing time.

 

Bullpen/Closer - Closers are expensive, so I'd hate to spend a huge amount of money there if we have other spots we can upgrade. I've been thinking for most of the season that Claudio Vargas would be a good candidate to be converted to a closer/late reliever. He'd certainly be cheaper than any free agents, and probably just as effective.

[sweepscc]

I'd like to see us make a run at Torii Hunter this offseason. I think an outfield of LF-Gross/Hall CF-Torii Hunter RF- Corey Hart could be very productive. If Atanasio does it would signal a real commitment to win big now.

[lumberrule]

I would want NO part in Torii Hunter. He's gonna command an awful lot of money, and offensively he will never be able to live up to that kind of contract.

 

I also think Estrada will be back, simply because outside of a handful of catchers, no catcher is really an impact type of player offensively. Estrada will still be relatively cheap and serviceable, which really is about all you can ask for in a catcher, unless your name is Mauer or Posada.

 

Im wondering why TGJ would be such a poor choice getting an OF slot next year. If people here think he's worth so much (or at least worth something of real value), why shouldn't he get a chance to play everyday?

 

The Brewers are gonna have to spend some money this year on a closer, along with one other really good bullpen arm. There's just no way around it. Other years, there was always somebody "in house" to promote to that job...this year, I don't see that. If the Brewers don't make a run at resigning Cordero, they're gonna have to fork over a ton of money to find another closer. The Brewers, whether they make the playoffs this year or not, surely have to see themselves as contenders in '08, and contending teams dont have bullpens made up of young unproven players or aging vets on the downhill sides of their careers.

[Fatter than Joey]

Im wondering why TGJ would be such a poor choice getting an OF slot next year. If people here think he's worth so much (or at least worth something of real value), why shouldn't he get a chance to play everyday?

 

I think most people here see TGJ as a 4th OF.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Gwynn is a nice player defensively but he is a 5th outfielder at best offensively. We need to trade him now since he seems to have some value to other teams. If we keep him into next season he will be exposed for what he truly is and that is a brutal offensive player.

[MNBrew]

Catcher - While Estrada hasn't been perfect, I think at least some of the deficiency at C comes from having an increasingly fragile, declining, aging veteran as the backup -- especially given that the backup would typically start day games after night games, meaning 1-2 starts per week. Miller was a good signing when they got him, but he's more like a placeholder now. I wish they could find someone more along the lines of a Mike Redmond: good bat, some good clutch hits, solid defensively, and a HUGE team leader type, and yet still comfortable that he's the #2 guy.

 

Bullpen - I think between Cordero, Turnbow, & Linebrink, they need to bring 2 of the 3 back so we're not filling in with an army of can't-break-or-stay-in-the-rotation starters or organizational soldiers. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think they have to bring back Cordero. Looking at that FA list above, bringing back Linebrink may not be the most ridiculous option (some of those options from that list ARE ridiculous) because it would still render Turnbow as an affordable, attractive trade asset. And goodness knows they're going to need to have a few good "bullets" to be able to bring back good quality in a trade.

 

I like Ray King and he loved Milwaukee before, so I wonder if he might want (and hopefully earn a shot) to come back. And Shouse is almost my age, but he should still have plenty of innings left in his arm if he's not overused and if his health is good. Who knows? Maybe Stetter has a good future in a King/Shouse-type role (a little early to tell). I think the bottom line with the bullpen is this: We're past the days of trying much of the scrap-heap approach to bullpen building. Fortunately, most of Doug Melvin's attempts have worked out better than not. But as the team grows stronger and stronger through the years, it'd seem you'd want fewer & fewer spots open for journeymen & injury-recovery project guys. Fortunately, there are still a decent number of good arms coming up through the system.

[JohnBriggs12]

I know Mike Rivera didn't have a great year at AAA but he was pretty darn good there in 05 and 06 and he's swung the bat with authority as a Brewer. And yes, he doesn't have a strong arm either but unlike Estrada, he moves around like an athlete behind the plate.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Estrada cannot and should not return under any circumstances. The guy cannot hit and his defense is beyond atrocious. I am not sure who we can get to replace him but even a guy like Rivera isnt as worthless as Johnny.

[TooLiveBrew]

The more I watch the stretch run, the more I realize just how much work Melvin & Co. have ahead of them this offseason. The pitching staff as a whole is in need of a revamping, especially in the bullpen. I would not be surprised to see more than one of our SPs shipped in the offseason, primarily for relief help. On top of that, my concern is whether or not we have enough trading chips to get anything of good value in return without giving away what remaining little depth we have (of advanced players) in our minor league system.

 

Re-signing Linebrink seems almost a necessity, Turnbow may be our lone "valuable" trading chip (but why trade from a position of need to try and help fill that same position?) from the 'pen, and Shouse's value is made clearer with each passing game. I worry about teams figuring out Shouse after him being featured so prominantly this season.

 

I don't want to hijack the thread, but I'm really getting concerned about our pitching as a whole in 2008.

 

SP - Sheets, Gallardo, Villanueva, Suppan, Bush, Capuano, Parra, (Vargas? he seems a perfect non-tender candidate)

 

RP - Turnbow, Shouse, Wise, Linebrink (FA), King (FA - hope he's back), Spurling (ughh), Stetter (http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/mad.gif), Aquino (http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/sick.gif), Jackson (?)

 

Yikes. That's a scary overall picture, sadly. While I feel that Bush & Capuano will return more to form in '08, Parra has much to prove at the MLB level (though I remain optimistic), and who knows how the younger arms of YoGa & Villy will respond to the heaviest workloads in their young careers?

 

For the 'pen, TBow, Shouse, & Wise are all decent options, but beyond that it seems entirely up in the air. Out of upcoming LHRP FAs, honestly, Ray King is about as nice as available. The Cubs' Eyre is eligible, but I doubt they let him go, and if they do, he'll likely be in very high demand. RHRP FAs obviously are of greater number, and there are some decent options. Kerry Wood is appx. the class of the bunch, but again I doubt the Cubs letting him go. I guess at this point I simply wish we had some arms available within the organization, as spending on relief pitching is almost a complete gamble, and we have much to upgrade.