Backend of Bullpen, C, LF outlook for '08

[bucksman4]

Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself here, but I am wondering what the board's thoughts are with respect to a few key positions in question for '08.

 

Backend of bullpen: Cordero/Turnbow --

Turnbow has been the definition of inconsistenty this year. He looks dominating or horrible. There's usually no middle ground with this guy and I'm wondering if he's in the future plans. Cordero will be in for a big payday. I do not know if the blowup of our bullpen in the last few weeks will increase the Brewers eventual offer for Coco but you sure would need to find a capable closer if we want to back up what most of us feel is going to be an ever improving, young group of players.

 

Catcher: Estrada/Miller --

Estrada is arbitration-eligible next season and Miller's deal is up. In the beginning of the season, I defended Estrada's bat but his approach at the plate has become quite frustrating to watch and he surely is made a mockery of behind the plate. The guy simply cannot throw out baserunners and it really does make an impact on games if you watch closely enough. I, for one, would explore trade possibilities with this position. Miller wouldn't be a bad re-up if the price was right.

 

Left Field: Jenkins/Mench --

Will the Brewers pick up fan favorite Geoff Jenkins' $8 million option? That is the question of the off-season. I would prefer to move on should another player thru trade or free agency become available. What I wouldn't necessarily mind considering is Tony Gwynn, Jr. full-time in CF and moving Bill Hall to LF. Imagine a LF/CF/RF -- 1B/2B/SS/3B of all Brewers' drafted players. We could use Jenkins' $8 mill on Cordero instead and if TGJ is a total flop, we have Gabe Gross and Nix there as reinforcements.

 

I wonder if the overall sentiments of brewerfan.net are similar to mine. I'd like to hear people's thoughts/insights of what they would envision or like to see for '08 at these spots.

 

 

(added tags --1992)

[PrimeTime955]

Well, first of all you're probably going to be boo'd off bf.net for suggesting that Gwynn should start next year. Personally I don't think that the Brewers will pick up the option but will try and sign him for less next season. If they don't pick it up and don't sign him next year I think that the outfield situation will look like this. Corey Hart will be starting every day in RF. Billy will still be in center with Gwynn spelling him occasionally against RH pitching, similar playing time to Counsell. Left field will be a platoon between Gross and Mench. I was a Gross hater for the last year or so but he's grown on me and I think that a platoon of Gross and Mench will be just as good if not better then one of Jenkins and Mench. Gwynn's speed on the bench could also be a nice as we all know.

[Oldcity]

I'm with you on the catching position, but I still think the Brewers will bring Estrada back, unfortunately.

 

If the Brewers don't bring back Jenkins (even release him and bring him back at a reduced price) and there is no outside replacement, I'd rather platoon Gabe Gross out there with someone. Joe Dillon, free agent, even Mench maybe.

 

I want no part of Tony Gwynn starting in center.

[TooLiveBrew]

mr. nitpick, cheking in: Jenks's option for next year is $9 mil., and we already have the "Every position save C home-grown" thing this year, whenever the corners of the OF are Jenks & Hart.

 

I sincerely hope that we can make a change & upgrade at C. Like you said, Estrada's defense tends to negate his average to above-average offense (even with his horrid approach, he's still alright) - and some OBP would be delicious. As for the 'pen, yikes. No idea what Melvin has in the plans, but he's got a ton of work to do. Turnbow proves once again that giving big money to RPs is a huge crapshoot, and unless you know the guy's a sure thing (Rivera/Hoffman), it's a really bad idea. TBow's $3.2 mil for 2008 is going to hurt a bit. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him shipped if they can get even an equal value in return - I'd bet his stats still indicate he's valuable to many teams.

 

Shouse hits last year of arbitration, so he'll likely be back, perhaps with a two-year deal (just speculation). Linebrink's deal is up, and I wouldn't dare to guess either way. He probably could be had for relatively cheap, but if "relatively cheap" = appx. Turnbow's deal, then I'd say it's best to let him walk. Cordero has got to be gone, I just don't think you can spend that much on a position with such little actual in-game action (though I know a closer is valuable) when you have the budget of the Crew. Even so, I just wouldn't want to do a deal longer than two years with CoCo, and he's likely to get 3 or more on the FA market.

 

While I'd love for the Crew to non-tender Mench, I'd guess he'll be back, and we'll see a Gross/Mench platoon. Hopefully, we can get ahold of a different LH-hitting specialist.

[Thurston Fluff]

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised that Gwynn ends up with another team who needs that type of player. He's either going to leadoff or hit 8th and the Brewers already have guys who are probably better for those slots. Even though Lance Nix is sort of an after thought I think he'd be ideal for the 5th outfield spot here with his mix of power, speed and defense. He hit for an OPS of .868 with 24 HR and 5 for 5 in stolen bases in AAA. Gwynn OTH hit for a .693 OPS, 0 HR and was 4 for 7 in SB. I know Gwynn didn't play as much in AAA but nothing I've seen from him or his minor league career suggests he could do better than Nix.

 

The bullpen will probably be the usual mix of guys with the proverbial good stuff who have yet to establish themselves or young guys like Parra and Jackson. I don't really have a huge problem with that approach as long as there are some established guys like Shouse, Wise, even T-Bow to an extent. I wouldn't mind getting a couple veterans with a less than perfect track record if they were cheap/minor league contract nonroster types. Those guys can come in and fill a few blanks or may have enough experience to ge tit done. I know this isn't the best approach but it is one that can provide good results while still leaving enough payroll leftover to improve other parts of the team. An average bullpen is ok as long as the rest of the team is better IMO. If we could get Linbrink for the same price as T-Bow I'd be all over that. His performance here isn't really the best indicator of what he has done overall.

[RightFieldCoder]

Bullpen: Cordero will be offered arbitration and will sign with another team. I believe Class A FA still gives us two draft picks. I don't see why we should pay tons of money for a closer that will never come into a game when it's on the line. Turnbow will be back, you get the most for RP in July. He's already signed and if we don't want him back for 09 we'll trade him. Linebrink: it depends on what his agent is asking for. If it isn't too high, we'll do the same thing as Cordero and net some draft picks or have him accept the contract. I imagine Shouse will be back some how some way. Even if we don't get the two year deal, the time to deal him would be in July or let him go after '08.

 

Catcher: If Miller wants to keep playing I think he'll be back in Milwaukee. We might stick with Estrada just because there won't be anything better for us to use unless a trade happens. (TGJ for Mauer would kick butt)

 

LF: Jenkins with a RH mate maybe Mench. Those two will keep it warm ala Overbay until LaPorta comes up. Gross will be 4th OF to spell Hall and Hart. TGJ will be traded or duct taped to the end of the bench until the 8th inning when a runner for Estrada is needed.

[TooLiveBrew]

[Linebrink's] performance here isn't really the best indicator of what he has done overall.

 

no, but it's an indicator of how he's declined over the last year or two. While I'd love to take a chance on him, I wouldn't want it to be for $3-ish million (TBow price). I'd really love for us to keep King on board, to have another lefty out of the 'pen. Shouse is just so valuable right now. If our 'pen can include: Shouse, Wise (who may be too pricey to justify keeping), King, TBow, Vargas, McClung, I think that's not a bad start. The trouble is going to be finding a closer - I just don't want our higher-leverage situations to be a crapshoot with TBow. I honestly wouldn't object to simply pitching the hot hand to close games in '08, but I definitely don't trust leaving that to our current manager.

[MNBrew]

(TGJ for Mauer would kick butt)

Any trade of an All-Star catcher highly regarded for both his offense and defense for a backup/prospect OF with debatable Major League ceiling would kick butt. And that's why it's a pipe dream. Mauer is the only one of 4 cornerstone players signed long-term (Morneau is arby-eligible, though; Santana like Sheets is a FA after '08, and Hunter's a FA at season's end), and the Twins know trading him would be totally catastrophic.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

no, but it's an indicator of how he's declined over the last year or two.

 

His ERA, WHIP and BAA are all a little worse than earlier in his career but that has mroe to do with how well he did earlier than it does how he is performing now. Stats for relievers aren't usually all that stabile from year to year. His K:BB rate is still around 3:1 where it always was. His numbers this year are way better than one would expect to get out of a $3 million player. Everything points to him being a vlaue at that price. I don't beleive for one minute that he won't get far more than that. But if he could be had for that price It's be worth it.

[Ayt]

Bullpen: Cordero will be offered arbitration and will sign with another team. I believe Class A FA still gives us two draft picks.

Cordero isn't arby eligible. If he were, I'd guess we'd have no problem keeping him another year.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

Bullpen: Cordero will be offered arbitration and will sign with another team. I believe Class A FA still gives us two draft picks.

Cordero isn't arby eligible. If he were, I'd guess we'd have no problem keeping him another year.

 

 

differant type of arbitration. The last three years a team has exclusive rights to a player are one type of arbitration. The player has no way to refuse the arbitration without agreeing to a contract offer by the team. After the 6th year the player is eligable for free agency and has the right to refuse or accept arbitration from the team if they team offers it. If he refuses he can sign with any team he choses and his former team offering arbitration gets draft picks according to his status.

[rluzinski]

His K:BB rate is still around 3:1 where it always was.

 

His K/BB is way down this year.... 1.86

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/564_P_season_full_3_20070912.png

 

That's not to say I think he's not a good reliever. When you are talking about 65 IP, anyone can have a down year and bounce right back. Brewer scouts thought he was still fine, so it's probably nothing too obvious (loss of velocity, for instance). The way Melvin was talking up the 2 draft picks he'll get from someone else signing Linebrink, it sure didn't sound like he was going to resign him, although thinks change somethimes.

 

Hall's offense in a corner outfield spot has little value and TGJ's defense will probably not make up for his below average offensive skills. A move like that would downgrade two position. That said, I don't really want to keep Jenkins around either. $9 mil for a guy who is barely north of a .800 OPS with the platoon advantage the majority of the time is not worth that kind of cash. I'd be fine with a Gross/free agent platoon.

[RightFieldCoder]

that's why it's a pipe dream

I know, I was making an outrageous trade claim in lieu of no actual good ideas for trades. Melvin should be inducted into the HoF the day after he makes that trade.

[Thurston Fluff]

His K/BB is way down this year.... 1.86

 

My bad I think I was looking at 06 instead of 07. Either way he'd still be a good deal at $3 million.

[TooLiveBrew]

Do you regard Turnbow as a good deal at $3 mil.? The two really aren't that dissimilar. I agree it's not a ton of money, but with a smaller payroll, everything is obviously more magnified.

[pitchleague]

I wouldn't mind if we were able to sign one of those career backup defensive catchers like a Henry Blanco or Todd Pratt kind of guy. Somebody that can spell Estrada late in a game with a better arm and also make a spot start here and there. Unfortunately, I think if we went that route they'd almost have to have a 3rd catcher on the roster or somebody like Rottino that can play catcher and has experience doing so.

[endaround]

The Brewers have money. They will be jettisoning the following:

 

Clark/Dessens: $3.5 million

Cordero $5.4 million

Graffanino $3.25 million

Koskie $2.0 million

Miller $2.25 million

Vargas $2.5 million

 

Thats a sizable chunk of change for a lots of deadweight. And thats nto even including Mench or Jenkins.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I would like to see the following done with these three positions:

 

C I would really like to see the Brewers get a catcher who can play some defense. Estrada is just awful defensively and I would like to explore a trade for a guy like Laird of Texas who is fantastic defensively. He hasnt been good offensively this year but he was good 2 years ago. With Saltalamacchia in Texas I could see Laird being dealt maybe in a deal for Gwynn.

 

LF I dont think that Jenkins is worth anywhere near 9 million for next year so I would let him go and replace him with Gross who I think is better than Jenks at this point anywhere. As far as a platoon partner for Gross I would give Dillon a shot. Dillon has looked good with the bat and he is far cheaper than Mench who will cost another 3 million next year. Mench cant hit righties at all and paying 3 million for a guy who only plays against lefthanders is a waste of money.

 

Bullpen Now this is the Brewers biggest problem going into next season since it has been so spotty this year. I would try to re up Cordero for 3/30. Cordero is a well above average closer and I cringe at what this bullpen will be without him. Turnbow is just not consistent enough to ever close again for this team and he makes me way nervous anytime he pitches. Shouse is cheap enough to bring back as a lefty specialist. I expect Linebrink to get around 6 million a year from a team like the Mets and I would not match that. I would look to trade for a guy like Otsuka in Texas possibly in a larger deal with Laird for Gwynn, Zack Jack and fillers. This is the weakest part of the team and letting Cordero go without any true replacement could really kill this teams chances next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

so does the ridding of contracts make anyone think re-signing Cordero is possible/plausible? Or would the freed-up $18.9 mil. be better spent elsewhere?

[endaround]

The Yankees need a closer, so no resigning Cordero isn't possible. The problem isn't next year so much at 2009 when Sheets contract is up Suppan starts making $12 million a year, Weeks, Fielder, and Hart hit arby, Hardy is in his second year.

[brettac1]

I don't think the Brewers interest in re-signing Cordero is really that high. I think they're totally content with letting him walk and taking the picks, they need to replenish the system a little because of all the guys they have graduated. They're going to need to have replacements for some of their players (Fielder, etc.) in three years or so, plus having upper-echelon minor league talent is a huge trading chip, since the team as currently constructed is going to contend for the playoffs for the next 3-5 years or so.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Lets say we dont resign Cordero what will this bullpen look like next year? We dont have any guys in AAA ready to be a closer and Turnbow is just not good enough to be a closer for a contending team. I think we have to seriously consider keeping Cordero especially seeing the possibilities as replacements being less than desirable.

[TooLiveBrew]

bkbc, I don't know if it's going to come down to whether or not we want to re-sign him, but that the bidding price is going to be too high, given larger markets' needs for CP

[sbrylski]

Cordero and Linebrink are gone and I sure hope Turnbow isn't our '08 closer. I predict our offseason trade this year will net us someone that can fufill that role for us. Not necessarily a proven "closer", but a cheap younger pitcher that either closed or set-up well for someone last season. Wouldn't hurt to add another guy on top of that through free agency to boost middle relief.

[Thurston Fluff]

Lets say we dont resign Cordero what will this bullpen look like next year? We dont have any guys in AAA ready to be a closer and Turnbow is just not good enough to be a closer for a contending team. I think we have to seriously consider keeping Cordero especially seeing the possibilities as replacements being less than desirable.

 

Indians closer Joe Borowski leads the AL in saves despite a 5.50 ERA. I don't think closers are necessary for a contending team as much as the bullpen as a whole has to be decent. Having a dominant closer is great and I'd like to see us get one but it's not nearly as important as having quality starters. I'd rather lock up Sheets than give Co-Co the money he'll require. T-Bow would likely be about as good as Borowski. I think we can do better by committee than trusting in one guy who has to be paid a king's ransom.