Does Bush skip his next start?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

With the day off today, should the Brewers give Bush his next start off? They could go Sheets, Soup, Villy & Gallardo then back to Sheets. I'd even consider putting Vargas back out there on the next round. He was very effective until the back issue and looked good yesterday.

 

Looking ahead to year end...that would give them Gallardo on short rest in the final game (with Villy in the pen) and Sheets for a one game playoff. Makes sense to me.

[patrickgpe]

id say so, vargas' numbers are not that great but the team does tend to win when he is out there, he pitched well yesterday, and bush has had 2 bad outings in a row. Atleast skip Bush, but i would put vargas in the rotation for right now.

[sheethead]

Wouldn't really bother me if Dave Bush skipped the plane ride back to Milwaukee. He could use the time to go on a pilgrimage to find a way to get outs.

[RightFieldCoder]

"Skipping a start" is usually when the pitcher would have pitched on an off day and instead of moving everybody back one day you just skip that one starter. This is the last off day the Brewers have until the post season, so if he isn't going to start someone needs to start for him. In no particular order, Sheets, Yo, Villy, Soup, ???. Vargas or Cappy are posibilities but I also think Yo is going to be shut down soon. So we might see both come back.

[rluzinski]

He could be replaced by Cappy or Vargas but has either really been clearly better overall? I think Cappy will take Yo's spot soon, anyway and I have a hunch Villy isn't going to be in the starting rotation for much longer anyway. I think Bush will be making 3 more starts and will end up in the pen for the playoffs.

[trwi7]

Did you guys watch Bush pitch yesterday? You all know he has that pause in his delivery but when he was pitching well at the end of last year the ball was still in his glove or being covered by his glove in the delivery. Yesterday he was taking the ball out of his glove and then pausing basically showing the Pirates batters what was coming.

[Oldcity]

I say don't skip him because it's a home start and Dave Bush is generally good at home.

[TauPentaRei]

I say don't skip him because it's a home start and Dave Bush is generally good at home.

 

Bush's next start is at Houston.

 

Capuano can come out of the corner, punishment over.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Why would you take Cappy out of the corner? He has been ineffective in the bullpen as well. I'd go with Vargas.

 

Good point by trw...YoGo was tipping pitches in his two bad starts...maybe Bush can make the adjustment too.

 

I also don't think they are going to shut down YoGo. They threw the innings limit out...they are gong for it and he's their number two starter right now. I hope they don't blow him up.

[endaround]

Bush's FIP 4.48

Capuano's FIP 4.60

Vargas' FIP 5.21

 

How is this even a discussion?

 

Career:

Bush 4.40

Capuano 4.62

Vargas 5.38

[dadofandrew]

The talk of "skipping" him is simply in error, as Robin pointed out, but seemed to have gotten lost. There's no off day between Ben's Friday start and the Bush's turn, which would be Tuesday.

 

I don't see any way at this stage Yo is replaced either. They might limit him to 5 innings or 90 pitches, but he's not coming out of the rotation...Ned made that pretty clear when he let him go the other night. No one in the braintrust has mentioned any innings limit with Yo since what, early August? I see him as a reliever should they make the postseason, but other than that, they are letting him pitch.

 

I would personally start Bush and tell him he's only going 5 frames regardless. That might allow him to simply "air it out" a bit, and might take away some pressure as well. He is a bit streaky, so he is probably the most likely to give the club 3 "good" starts as well (of the Bush or a replacement group).

[TooLiveBrew]

agreed on YoGa, doa. Once the coaching staff realized they won't be around for next year without throwing out the innings limit, it was forgotten. I honestly don't know one way or the other how I feel about continuing to let him start, as I want this team to hit the postseason too - but man risking an injury is such a gamble.

[jackalope02ca]

Gallardo isn't coming out of the starting rotation unless we are eliminated from playoff contention. If that happens he doesn't toss another pitch.

 

He also is our number 2 pitcher in the playoffs if we make it and won't be limited. There is just too much on the line from an ownership and managment perspective to limit his innings now. Dollars talk, owners want to make money. The casual fan won't remember Gallardo in a year or two if he blew up his arm but would always remember a World Series win. Those who argue we could compete for 3 years if we save him don't really have a point. No one can predict the future. Injuries happen, players walk, it's all just on paper. Right or wrong that's the bottom line.

 

As for Bush you have to pull him and go to Vargas. At least make it look like your making the effort. Again the bottom line is the team wins for Vargas. Do I care if we win 8-6 and Vargas gave up 6 ER ins 5 innings. Not really. Bush is one of those guys the statheads argue is going to be good. The problem with Bush is he just isn't very good and is a real argument for knowing that sometimes numbers are just that numbers and not very useful.

[TooLiveBrew]

Again the bottom line is the team wins for Vargas. Do I care if we win 8-6 and Vargas gave up 6 ER ins 5 innings

 

W-L record is all that matters in evaluating a pitcher! Nevermind that by giving up 6 ER in 5 IP you make it incredibly difficult for your offense to score enough to win - coincidences are better than facts!

[jackalope02ca]

Too Live your missing the point.

 

At this time of the year and given the standing Win Loss is what it's all about. ERA, K"s Walks is all irrelevant. I'm not talking about the whole year here.

 

The team wins for Vargas. Look at his record. Sure it's harder to score lots of runs when the ERA is high but hey the team seems to do it for Vargas. I'm not arguing that he is good or that I think Vargas is the saviour for this team. The team just seems to win for him. Can't explain it. Don't want to explain it. I just want to see wins.

[logan82]

The team was something like 18-12 when Davis started last year, but I still didn't think he was our best pitcher.

[TooLiveBrew]

jackalope, you're missing the point - no offense, honestly. Vargas has been lucky this year. "Winning for ____" simply doesn't exist - unless you're suggesting that since he has more friends on the team, they try really really hard when he's pitching and slack off when everyone else (except Ben Sheets) throws. If you think this is based on anything else but luck, I don't really know what to say.

 

Did he lose his July 4th start because his teammates didn't want to win for him? No, he lost because he surrendered 2HR & 6 ER in 5 innings. Same on August 1st, when he gave up 2HR & 7 ER in 2 2/3 innings. Likewise, he won on August 18th (v. Cincy) because he was lucky enough that of the 12 baserunners he allowed in 5 innings, only one came around to score. I know there's some skill shown there, but there's also a ton of luck.

 

A large reason he's avoided losses this year has been his inability to work deep in games, which in turn taxes the bullpen more. In his 23 starts this year, he's pitched past the 6th inning twice, and only 9 times did he actually complete the 6th inning. In many instances, he was pulled because he got into trouble, and was then bailed out by the bullpen being effective. Again, that's luck. To get merely 5 or 6 innings from a SP almost literally every time out is not good at all, no matter what numerical label is ascribed to said pitcher.

 

 

ERA, K"s Walks is all irrelevant.

 

Classic!

[rluzinski]

The idea that an offense should be expected to put up more runs for a particular starting pitcher is pretty silly.

[jackalope02ca]

No one ever suggested the offense should put up more runs. They just seem to do it for Vargas. What you statheads miss out on all the time are the little intangibles that can't be turned into stats.

 

At this point I'm not concerned about taxing the bullpen. They only need to go 3 more weeks. As for Davis being our best pitcher last year he wasn't. Yet he still seemed to win. What I'm suggesting is going with the intangibles and running with Vargas. Why does he win. I can't explain it but he does. Right now W's are the most important stat. The rest is all meaningless. Some of you may not be able to grasp this and that's fine too.

[TooLiveBrew]

what you're unable to grasp is that luck and getting pulled from ballgames early is what contributed to most of Vargas's wins. He is not a solid SP, and getting lucky does not equal "intangibles." W's are indeed the most important stat, but if you can't understand that lots of BBs & Hs makes it really difficult to obtain a win, I honestly don't know what to say. Getting lucky is not intangible, nor is it a stat. It's just dumb luck.

[1992casey]

The talk of "skipping" him is simply in error, as Robin pointed out, but seemed to have gotten lost. There's no off day between Ben's Friday start and the Bush's turn, which would be Tuesday.

That hits the nail on the head. If someone's 'in line' to be skipped to keep everyone else on four days rest, it'd be Sheets tomorrow (Friday), and that certainly isn't going to happen. If Bush's next start were skipped, Sheets would be back on three days rest. That's also a no-go.

 

It's best to leave well enough alone. There was no way to bring back Sheets on four days rest anyway. And an extra day of rest for Gallardo and Villanueva might be a tiny bonus as far as protecting their arms.

 

 

(edit: days of rest were wrong --1992)

[Oldcity]

Yeah I messed up on that comment about Bush pitching at home. Either way, I wouldn't take him out of the rotation. He's a solid pitcher who ran into a couple bad starts.

[rluzinski]

No one ever suggested the offense should put up more runs. They just seem to do it for Vargas.

We shouldn't expect more runs but the Brewers should put Vargas back in the rotation because the offense "seems" to score more runs when he starts? How is that not a contradiction?

What you statheads miss out on all the time are the little intangibles that can't be turned into stats.

You are using stats as well. You've noticed the high win percentage in games Vargas has started and I think you've also noticed it's not really a result of Vargas's good pitching well but rather the offense scoring a lot of runs in those games. That can be confirmed by looking at run support rankings in the NL:

Run Support

Amoung the 57 NL pitchers with at least 120 IP, Vargas as the second highest run support! When your offense is averaging over 6 runs a game, even a bad pitcher is going to have a decent record. When you're a good pitcher, like Sheets, and you get that kind of run support, you end up with a 12-4 record.

Where your usage of the above stats goes is wrong is assuming that there's any connection ebetween run support numbers and the pitcher receiving them. It's almost completely random (a pitcher with a good bat can help his own cause a bit). Sheets has been burdened with very bad run support for the last few years but this year, he has one of the best. There's no way to predict it, so there's no reason to assume extreme strents will continue. Going forward, you should assume the offense will average about 5 runs per game, which is what they have been averaging overall this year.

(repaired code error --1992)

[Fear The Chorizo]

Bush's FIP 4.48

Capuano's FIP 4.60

Vargas' FIP 5.21

 

How is this even a discussion?

 

Career:

Bush 4.40

Capuano 4.62

Vargas 5.38

 

Here's the Brewers' dilemma - the Brewers were supposed to be stuck with making a decision regarding whether to let Gallardo take either Bush or Vargas' remaining starts at this point in the season. That was assuming that Sheets stayed healthy, and that Capuano was actually a good pitcher.

 

As it turns out, Gallardo's already been in the rotation since July due to Sheets' injury and other starters' ineffectiveness, and Villenueva has taken over as a starter since Capuano has pretty much stunk in any role he's been given this year. With Parra not being an option, the Brewers are stuck with needing two of the three pitchers listed above to be key contributors for them down the stretch. What was a perceived strength at the start of the year (starting pitching) for the Brewers has turned out to be an average at best part of their team. Couple that with an inconsistent bullpen, and that's probably how a team can lose 15 games that they had been leading by 3 runs or more after 5 innings.

 

Thinking of what seems like a weekly occurrence when the Brewers give away games that they had won really gets me frustrated - if they had only won half of those games this year they'd be 7.5 up and there wouldn't be a question as to who's winning this crappy division.