Potential Brewers starting OFs

[TheCrew07]

Ryan has a lot of work to do on his defensive game, but range isn't an issue. He's so quick that he has a surpising number of balls that end up inbetween.... as in too close to dive and too far away to reach running. I've never seen someone get caught inbetween on so many balls. I haven't watched a game since mid August, but I highly doubt he's all of a sudden lost a step in the last 6 weeks. It's one thing to question his play, however he's got all of the tools, the results haven't been there error wise, but watching him play his skills very evident, at least in my opinion. His instincts probably aren't as good as some others, but to say he has no range and has a puss arm is innaccurate in my opinion.

[Tbadder]

To my mind he gets to the hole and outside the foul line very, very quickly. Maybe his hand/eye coordination is off, but I doubt that given his ability to hit so well. I could be mistaking speed for quickness, but generally there's some crossover there, and I can't think of a faster 3B right off hand. So I might very well be wrong.

[BrewerDawg45]

I hope you were kidding Endaround when you mentioned Braun and Helms in the same breath. Ridiculous and not even close.

 

What Braun needs to learn is to how to throw it hard to first, but not too hard. It always looks like he's trying to throw it through Fielder at 99 mph. Ease up big guy, sometimes its better to get them by a half-step only. Plus his HR potential alone is reason enough to leave him at third ... that's the prototype power-thirdsacker in my book.

 

As for the topic, i.e., the outfield situation. I really don't think any of the Brewers current minor leaguers will reach the bigs, with the exception of LaPorta and Gamel. The speed guys (Cain, Ford) won't be needed because of Hart and Gwynn (and maybe Stocker). The jury is still out on Gindl in my mind. Otherwise...ehh.

[bretsky07]

Stocker is not a prospect. He's only in Milwaukee because of his baserunning abilities and due to the fact that Huntsville really didn't need him for the playoffs, and Gwynn's hammy wasn't ready by Sept 1st.

As for the the "speed guys" not being needed, they're young, and the hope is they have some decent power potential to go with their speed and defense. Plus don't forget Gillespie, who is poised for a huge breakout next year once he leaves the home run killer that is Space Coast Stadium.

[endaround]

It isn't just his arm. He gets to nothing. Have you seen his revised zone rating? Not only is he last but he is last by a significant amount.

 

Hardball Times

 

This isn't just a bad mechanics thing

[TheCrew07]

End don't take this wrong way, but I'm not arguing zone rating, I'm telling you what I see him do in person and when I watch the games. He's a great athlete, I'm not sure how that's even debatable. As I said, he has all of the physical tools, however I'd agree that his instincts aren't very good at times. That being said, I've seen him get to balls behind the bag at third that many other players just don't get to. I know you're way more of a stats junky than I am and I have no doubt that he'll score poorly on every single defensive metric there is. However, I was talking about what I see, he's got a good arm and very quick feet, what he does with that and the results he gets are a different matter entirely. He is not slow, and he has a good arm... You cannot play 3B in MLB if you don't have a cannon, it's that simple.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that if you're telling me he's slow and weak armed because zone rating says so, I'd ask you how many games zone rating has been to this year. You'd reply all of them, as all games are taken into account and we'd debate it in a circle when really we're talking about 2 different things. We're talking about the result of a metric vs what you can see with your eyes when you watch him play.

 

Not to poke fun at you at all, but I find arguing about the relative arm strength of 3B in MLB like arguing about which Jessica is hotter... does it really matter? My guess is that zone rating penalizes him for all of the IF singles to 3B, but like last night, he has plenty of time to get throw over there if he does things fundamentally sound... It sounded on the radio like it took him forever to get the ball out of his glove. I was driving home from practice and listening to the game, and that was the impression that I got from the broadcast., he took his time making the play and he took too long. Is that Arm strength or a different flaw?

 

I'm not bashing ZR at all, it's just that how can a metric measure someone's athleticism which is what we're really discussing... who has the tools to play where? A guy who has good enough range and arm to play SS isn't athletic enough to play 3B? That's a tough sell to me, especially after all the games I've watched him play. Braun is gifted enough that athletically he can play anywhere on the diamond. Again, he seems to have poorish instincts, which is going to limit the end result.

[endaround]

Can we get off "he played SS so he can do it?" My guess is something like 75% of major league position players were once short stops. Since MLB players tend to be great athletes and the best athletes tend to play SS it isn't really saying anything. And this isn't about how athletic Braun is as such, its about skills which Braun just doesn't have right now and it would take a very large chane to make him passable. Corey Hart is the most athletic player on the Brewers right now and he couldn't handle playing 3B.

[gregmag]

TheCrew07, I'm a stats junkie too -- including on defense -- but I think your last post is one of the best statements I've seen about the limits of stats. You're right, there's nothing inconsistent about your observations and endaround's; the X factor is whether Braun can turn his physical ability into good results at 3b. I put a fair amount of stock in zone ratings, but they don't tell you why a player isn't getting to balls. As to endaround's argument that Braun is highly unlikely to harness his skills as a 3b, I just don't know; I'm not sure how anybody can draw a confident conclusion about that.

 

The OF situation in the system right now is incredibly fluid. Out of Gillespie, Cain, Ford, Gamel, and Brantley, I think a couple will probably move away from the pack next year. Gamel's the best candidate to skyrocket, but beyond that I hesitate to guess. Gwynn and Katin have established limitations at this point, enough to make either very unlikely as a regular, but they're both still working at the margins: if Gwynn can find a way to keep his OBP above .350 despite his lack of power, and if Katin can find a way to hit .260 despite his strikeouts, they could both play bigger roles in the majors. Fermaint I have no clue about; he appears to be flatlining, but he's young enough to come back with his skills. Moss, like Krynzel before him, just needs to find it somewhere; he's very lucky right now that he has a clear path to AAA.

 

Greg.

[TheCrew07]

Being drafted out of highschool as a shortshop where everyone's best player plays, and playing SS in college are 2 different things entirely. JJ Hardy is not anywhere near as athletiic as Braun or Hart to use your example, but he's fine at SS. Braun and Hart sort of glide effortlessly around the diamond, they don't look like they are moving as fast as they do. However, raw athleticism and results are 2 totally different concepts... At this point in his career he's a poor 3B there's no doubt, but that doesn't mean he has no range and a weak arm, which is all I was trying to say.

 

I have no doubt that Brewer is one of the best athletes in the system, but that doesn't mean that Colby is wrong about his long term development leading to the outfield. There so much more to this coversation and sports in general than pure athletic ability... but I digress..

 

I think the outfield situation is as cluttered as it's ever been. I personally would love to see a Brantley type find a home on the team, someone with tremendous OBP potential, even if it's nothing more than a 4th outfielde/pinch hitter role. Most of the guys below AA are so young that's it tough to be more specific than that, but it will definately be enjoyable to watch and follow to see who ends up with the best MLB careers out of all those kids.