Potential Brewers starting OFs

[DHonks]

So I'm thinking about Gamel and some others, and curious what some possible in-house scenarios are for the next few years for the OF

 

1) Gwynn CF, Hall/Gross LF, Hart CF (obviously Hart plays every day between CF and RF, Gwynn some CF, Hall some LF, Gross RF/LF)

 

2) Hart CF, LaPorta LF, Gamel/Katin RF

 

3) Hall CF, LaPorta LF, Hart RF

 

I guess what it really comes down to is...what kind of players could Gamel and Katin be? I have them in a potential platoon early in their careers, because I think platoons can be very good for young players, and maximize team production

[And That]

Gamel is a LF only, though I like his tools there. LaPorta will supplant him there, however.

 

Next year, I see an OF of Gross/Mench in LF, Hall/Hart in CF and Hart/Mench in RF.

 

Beyond that, it is a tough call.

[JJHardy7]

What about Fermaint? I know he may have dropped a bit.

[kgbaseball]

It's been a complete waste of a year for Fermaint, as he's looked flat out bad at BC, and West Virginia after his demotion. He's at least 3 years away.

 

Lorenzo Cain and Cole Gillespie should start 2008 in Huntsville, so that's a good sign for the future. While Gillespie is probably nothing more than a 4th outfielder, Cain cut down his strikeouts this season in a tough hitter's league, but his walk totals took a hit. He's got all the tools in the world, but he's showing that he can play. He's only 21, by the way.

 

Darren Ford and Freddy Parejo will probably start in BC in 2008. Ford has blazing speed, but saw a huge drop in OBP when being promoted to Brevard County earlier this year. He's a leadoff guy, so he'll have to improve that in 08.

 

Brendan Katin might start the year in AAA. He's got big time power, but strikes out a ton (163) without great on base ability. A return to AA can't be ruled out. Michael Brantley has fantastic OBP ability, but no power to speak of. He's looking like 4th outfielder territory, if that. He'll probably spend the 2008 season in AA again.

 

For 2008, I think the Brewers outfield will consist of Hall, Hart, and a FA (Lofton in center?) I'd like to see them put Hall in left; maybe that'll get him focused on his bat a little more and less on how good his fielding is. Hart should be in right, and maybe they could sign Lofton, a pure leadoff hitter (372 OBP) for a small price (maybe another $7 million for one year deal?) Sure, he'll be 41 next season, but this season he has performed almost exactly to his career averages (300 average, 370 OBP, 420 SLG), and there's no reason to think he can't do it again next year. I'd love to see him in center for 08.

 

Anyways, those are my predictions. If anybody has any insider info about where certain minor leaguers will spend 08, please let me know. What do you guys think?

[colbyjack]

I agree with Toby, and I've brought this up before, but Gamel is a leftfielder down the line. That's not a bad thing, as he will more than earn his keep if he keeps hitting like he has, and he's athletic enough to handle such a move.

 

While I like Katin's power, I'm worried about his ability to hit for average and the amount his strikes out. Unless he absolutely crushes LHP (and his splits don't suggest he does), I'm not so sure he's more than a big righty bat off the bench (meaning not the type of guy you rely on in a platoon situation).

 

If Cole Gillespie is a 4th OF down the line, he'll be one of the better and underappreciated OFs in the game a la Matt Murton, as to whom SoCal has compared Gillespie to before.

 

This is what I've got for regulars for next year, as I think Gamel is going to continue his progression as a 3B for the time being:

 

AAA: Anderson, Moss, Katin (Gwynn up for good, Nix gone)

AA: Gillespie, Brantley, Cain (with Errecart at 1B and no DH for many/most games, this alignment will be the least fluid IMO)

A+: LaPorta, Ford, Chapman (Caufield as a reserve)

A: Crowell/???, Haydel, Gindl (Fermaint could be playing all over in this OF)

 

While I think that LaPorta could very well open next year at AA, I'm starting to agree more and more with people pointing to Ryan Braun's career path, opening one's first full pro season a high-A before getting the bump to AA.

 

And I hope Fermaint figures things out and finds himself somewhere in the mix, but given the OF glut in the system, he's not doing himself any favors by regressing at an alarming rate.

 

And I still believe the prospect that projects best in CF is Brent Brewer.

[TheCrew07]

Brewer eh?

 

Not that I disagree about his tools, but as high as I am on the kid I keep reminding myself that his K rate was horrible at best. He'll have to clean that up as he progresses for me to claim him to be the best projectable anyting. His BABIP was truly impressive when I broke down the numbers on him in an in game thread sometime in July... the potential is definately there, but there's a large gulf between potential and production...

[SoCalBrewfan]

I think there's a better than even chance that Braun is an outfielder within a couple of years, too, which further clogs things up. But with or without him, it's a fascinating collection of guys, with pure hitters like Gillespie and Gamel, sluggers like Laporta, Katin, and Chapman, potential leadoff speed / onbase guys like Brantley, Ford, Haydel, Gwynn. And then there's Cain, Fermaint, Gindl, Moss, the older low A guys... There's a lot of athletic guys who should be either good defenders in a corner or adequate in center, as Hart is now, so it's entirely possible that we'll continue to see some serious rotations in the outfield in the next several years. It's also encouraging to think that there's some chance that the team could put out an excellent defensive outfield...the Hall / Gross / Gwynn / Hart combination has potential in that regard. There's also some configurations that would probably leave something to be desired defensively...

 

The big advantage Gamel has at this point is that he's one of the few lefty bats coming through the system (Gindl is another now); there isn't a lefty OF slugger in the system aside from Jenkins. The disadvantage for Mat is that he's best suited for positions played by the biggest sluggers in the system...Laporta is likely to be a fixture in LF around the time Gamel is ready. Then if Braun ends up in the OF as many suspect, that leaves a lot of guys fighting for a very small number of jobs. (Somebody is going to have to play third but there's a very good chance that our starting 3b in, say, 2009 is somebody not currently in the system.) Of course, not all of those guys will work out...many are likely to stall out in AA or lower...that's happened already to Fermaint and Moss it seems though of course each guy has the talent and time to turn things around.

 

The thing to remember about Brewer is that he was competing in a full-season league ten months after his high school graduation...to say he needs polish is severely understating things, but if his performance ever catches up to his tools he'll be something special, even if that will be at 3b or in the outfield.

[kgbaseball]

I have a hard time imagining Braun in the outfield. He seems to have a hard time with throws, which is fixable. He sort of slings it over to first, and that could be his problem; it's fixable. He's got plenty of range; I just think most of his fielding woes are mental.

[biedergb]

Not to hijack this thread, but I see Braun eventually as a 1B (like Pujols). Now that only occurs if one of Fielder or Braun go elsewhere, which won't happen for some time.

 

Back to the OF. We have one high end prospect in LaPorta. Then we have some nice hitters in Cain, Gillespie, Gindl and possibly Gamel. As far as sluggers, don't forget Steve Chapman, he hit what 24 HR in west virignia this year, and he's only 21. Obviously we have speed in Ford and Haydel. It's not like having Fielder/Weeks/Hardy/Braun in the minor leagues, but it's good talent.

[bretsky07]

Not to hijack this thread, but I see Braun eventually as a 1B (like Pujols). Now that only occurs if one of Fielder or Braun go elsewhere, which won't happen for some time.

 

If Fielder leaves, LaPorta would probably move to 1b.

[Katuluu]

And then there's Cain, Fermaint, Gindl, Moss, the older low A guys...

Fermaint still ahead of Moss after this season? Et tu SoCal?

 

[DHonks]

I still see Braun as a career 3b. I've only seen one 3b EVER with even similar range, and that's Rolen. His range is off the charts. His arm strength is great. He just gets a little excited on some throws. Heck, people tolerated Valentin's awful throws simply because he got to more balls than others, so I would think they should do the same for Braun

[colbyjack]

Yeah, I don't see Braun moving off of third base. The organization has been extremely patient with Braun at the hot corner up to this point, and he has flashed the ability to make some pretty amazing plays at the position. Like Weeks, I'm sure things will start to come together for him over the next year or two, and the conversation of him moving to another position will become a distant memory.

 

And as noted, LaPorta is likely Fielder's successor at first.

[agent39]

Brewer is not moving off SS, and I think I know this better than anyone here. I dont know why anyone projects him for CF. Anyone who saw Brent at the end of the year knows how good of a SS he has the potential to be. He was 19 in a full season league and I know the Brewers are very happy with the season he had. (sorry for the arrogance )

[kgbaseball]

Same thing goes for Justin Upton, BJ Upton, etc. Every athletic kid comes up as a SS, and teams will find a better place for them from there.

[BucEbadger]

I dont see Brewer moving from SS as hes the next guy in line to take over if Hardy fails.. Reminds me Hall when he was that young.. Why move him from a position we are thin at to a position we are very deep at in CF?? Brewer will stay at SS and prob will be a super sub his first few years in the Bigs as a SS and Second baseman...

[colbyjack]

agent39, it isn't meant as disrespect, but I've had that opinion since seeing him play over two years ago now. I'm sure he's improved, but at the time I just felt his body type, athleticism and his style of speed in quickness would make him better suited for the OF. I don't doubt the Brewers plan on keeping him at SS for the next several years, but I don't see JJ Hardy moving off the position anytime soon and at some point, as kgbaseball alluded to with the Upton's, Brewer may have to move.

 

The player doesn't want to hear that, and I'm sure his agent doesn't want to hear that, but it is a realistic possibility down the road.

[recte44]

I really think our third starting outfielder isn't in the organization right now (at least for the next couple years, barring a Braun like rise by LaPorta).

[agent39]

I know for a fact Brent is being groomed as a SS. Hardy's contract eventually will run out and the plan, is to have Brent as the guy to replace him. The org loves him at SS and it's not like CF is an Org. Need. He's a much better defender than both uptons ever were. Brent has a chance to be special at SS. He's a raw baseball talent and was a football first kid. He's a totally different prospect than the Uptons of the world. Brent actually projects as a SS.

[Ennder]

Braun has shown below average range on the season statistically and seems to dive and miss a lot of plays I see other 3B make. I guess I don't see this great range others are talking about.

[And That]

I know for a fact Brent is being groomed as a SS. Hardy's contract eventually will run out and the plan, is to have Brent as the guy to replace him. The org loves him at SS and it's not like CF is an Org. Need.

 

That is maybe the most cogent point as to why the Brewers may well not be interested in moving Brent off of SS right now. They have a plethora of athletes at the position already... why add another one to the pool when it isn't needed? If Brent proves he can't hack SS by the time he gets to AA or AAA, that's another thing, but right now I really don't see the Brewers moving him off SS. His only real competition for the long-term job past Hardy is Escobar. In CF, the list is too long to name.

 

Edit: And FWIW, I still see Braun in the OF, and he might still be a darkhorse for long-term answer in CF. He could play any of the three positions. That means 3B is a question mark unless Gamel proves he can adapt to the position.

[pogokat]

I think Brewer is a SS...he's got a ton of tools...even if the execution was missing during the year...he's definitely more of a mental error guy than gamel, who doesn't have soft hands

 

Brewer will hit...he's going to be a power hitter methinks...even if he sees himself more like reyes/jeter. Agent39 is right though...the brewers definitely havent suggested that he'll play anywhere else...

 

CF is probably the strongest position in the entire system: Cain, ford, gillespie, chapman, moss, and fermaint all could play center field well...brantley can play it in a pinch...

 

of that group, i think that cain, ford, gillespie and chapman all have a shot of being above average hitters at the corner..

 

of course that list excludes laporta and gamel who are easily the best hitters of the group...

 

i'm very excited about all of this...and i'm not going to wager on placements this year...at least not right now...ask me again next week

[colbyjack]

I just want to point out something I said about Brewer in one of my posts:

 

I don't doubt the Brewers plan on keeping him at SS for the next several years...

 

I'm not suggesting that they give up on him now, that would be crazy, it's just a personal opinion of mine that he could wind up there down the road, and IF the Brewers were to move him to CF right now, he could very well be the best CF in the system. Keep in mind that at one point in time several people wanted to see Rickie Weeks placed in CF to begin his pro career and even people that opposed the idea didn't think it was overly crazy.

 

And obviously the glut of OFs that we continually talk about makes that move virtually impossible, although I wish we had that one CF in our organization that had the complete package of tools. I realize no prospect is without warts, but each of the organization's CFs in particular seems to be missing something that keeps me from being more excited about their futures.

[Tbadder]

I think the difference here is that Brewer could be extra special at ss, while only special in CF, so keep him at SS. I believe in Braun. I really believe that he'll eventually work it out at 3rd, and be an above average fielder. His range could be off the charts, although his throws are tepid at times suggesting he lacks confidence. And all the outfielders...it makes my head just spin. LaPorta seems like he'll take Fielder's spot at 1B because the Crew will never be able to afford him. I know I'd like Ford to conquer his problems and turn into a dominant lead off hitter, and I'd Gamel to eventually become the prototypical slugging left corner...and that just leaves a stud rightfielder who covers ground like a CF, but has an absolute cannon. Which of the other prospects am I describing? I don't know. (Seriously, if someone could tell me which Brewer OF fits this description, Gindl?)

[endaround]

Why do you believe in Braun and his range though? He isn't just below average, he makes Wes Helms look good. He doesn't have range. He has a questionable arm.