Outside Take on Level of Yost Criticism

[rluzinski]

Focusing on the Aquino move from a week ago:

What should he have done? First, let me say that I think that Yost is a smart manager. I don't know that, but rumor has it that he purchased The Book. Whether he read it or understood it is another story. After the game, when asked about brining in Aquno, all he said was that he wanted to get the platoon advantage because Pence hits 70 points better versus LHP. Even though he made the "mistake" of quoting a relatively small sample of stats (what if Pence had hit better this year versus RHP, which is entirely possible?), he was on the right track.

The Book Blog: Ned yost and the Brewers

Not sure if people can restrict this thread to commenting on the above post (as oppossed to turning it into another "Fire Yost" thread). I guess, we'll see.

[jeffy]

I believe Yost has since said that he probably should have gone to Cordero and has indicated a willingness to use Cordero for more than 3 outs the rest of this season.

[billyhallfan]

Now, Aquino is not a bad pitcher according to his minor and major league stats

 

That is where I have a problem with stats, I don't know what stats he is talking about, but Aquino is not a guy that I want to rely on out of the pen. I'm not saying Yost was right or wrong, but you cannot tell me that Aquino is a good pitcher, I won't buy that for a second.

[RightFieldCoder]

I have no problem with Yost saying a RHP needed to come in against Pence. I have a problem with him thinking Aquino is the best guy to pitch with the game on the line when Wise, Cordero, and several fans were available and better options.

[Fatter than Joey]

I have no problem with Yost saying a RHP needed to come in against Pence. I have a problem with him thinking Aquino is the best guy to pitch with the game on the line when Wise, Cordero, and several fans were available and better options.

 

I agree.. Here are my takes on the article.

 

1.) The writer wants to pimp his book -- which is fine, but the only evidence he gives for Ned being smart is buying a book.

2.) While Ned is smart to buy the book, he hasn't either read it, or he doesn't comprehend it.

3.) The writer has no investment (time/research) into the Brewers or Yost, and is really writing this article based on one decision Yost has made (which admittedly could be a one time bad/good decision, it would be like watching a batter go 0-4 and proclaiming him to suck), -- and a book purchase.

[rluzinski]

What the author is doing is suggesting that criticisms of managers in general might get out of hand sometimes and uses one example to illustrate the point (and yes, he also pimps his book).

 

That is where I have a problem with stats, I don't know what stats he is talking about, but Aquino is not a guy that I want to rely on out of the pen. I'm not saying Yost was right or wrong, but you cannot tell me that Aquino is a good pitcher, I won't buy that for a second.

 

How many innings have you seen him pitch? Now, obviously, the results have been terrible in the majors this year but that doesn't make him a bad pitcher necessarily, just one who's had bad results in a very small sample. That said, I wouldn't have brought Aquino in only because of what had happened to him the last time he was in a high leverage situation. The fans started booing even before Aquino was on the mound. I don't understand why fans continue to judge baseball players on small samples, despite being proven wrong over and over again. Gross is a great example. Do the people who flip flop on players multiple times in a season even realize it?

 

I think Yost WANTS to try and use all the information available (including some sabermetric principles), which is more than you can say about many/most managers these days. The problem is that he simply falls back into using the results of the last couple of weeks as a crutch. If a player has done good or bad in recent games, he'll manage as if he should expect that to continue. If he actually did by "The Book", he should check out the chapter on hot streaks and see how little carry over there typically is.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't understand why fans continue to judge baseball players on small samples, despite being proven wrong over and over again.

 

Small samples can lose you ballgames. You can't let Winkelsas/Mabeus pitch 100 innings this year to come to the conclusion he sucks, and feel better about the data.

Also it is not absolute that a SS can be wrong either, oftentimes they are misleading, but sometimes they happen to be right as well. Many times in the season, managers will have to make decisions on small samples, and not have the luxury of waiting for data to accumulate.

 

I do understand though, the perils of SS data and making judgments based off of them. I think Balfour is a great example of that. He was judged on his 20.25 ERA and 2.7 IP. He was ran out of town, because he didn't have any options, and had bad results in high leverage situations -- both are the fault of DM/NY. Balfour got 2 losses in those 2.7 IP, and it seemed to me, that for a guy who hadn't pitched MLB for almost 3 seasons, should have gotten a chance to get a couple of appearances in lower leverage situations so he could shake off the butterflies. Unlike Winlesas and Mabeus -- Balfour had a decent track record both in MLB and the minors prior to being called up.

 

Balfour now has a 3.00 ERA in TB (18 IP 21Ks), and while I don't think he will be much more than a solid BP option, -- I dont think TB wants McClung back anytime soon.

[rluzinski]

Many times in the season, managers will have to make decisions on small samples, and not have the luxury of waiting for data to accumulate.

 

All these guys have played professional ball before making the majors. Granted, minor league stats can't be translated perfectly into the majors but if I have to choose between 100 IP in the minors and 5 IP in the majors, I know which one I am going to focus on.

 

But you and I both know that when a fan screams "Player A sucks!" after seeing 5 IP or 20 AB, they aren't even trying to make an objective assessment of a player's true talent.

[Fatter than Joey]

But you and I both know that when a fan screams "Player A sucks!" after seeing 5 IP or 20 AB, they aren't even trying to make an objective assessment of a player's true talent.

 

The louder they scream, the more correct they are.

[sgtcluels]

Isn't that also how ESPN shows like PTI work? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Acquino was mis-used again by putting him in a horrible situation, the same situation that got him booed out of town and sent to the minors. Ned seems to be dead set on rolls, and some times it bits him in the butt like the situation described above.

[billyhallfan]

How many innings have you seen him pitch?

 

As many as he has pitched in Milwaukee which off of the top of my head is probably around 10 or a little less, and I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that he should be used for anything other than a mop-up job. But what does it matter what I see, I think the majority of Brewers fans would agree that he is not a pitcher that you can depend on.

 

The fans started booing even before Aquino was on the mound. I don't understand why fans continue to judge baseball players on small samples,

Who was judging Aquino on small sample sizes, it wasn't the fans. Were you at the game? Fans were booing because of Yost, not Aquino. They were booing Yost because of the decision, they weren't booing Aquino, if the Brewers would have escaped that inning with a lead of two, and Aquino came into pitch the next inning, I don't think you would hear anyone booing, your perception is that they were booing Aquino because they thought he sucked because of a small sample size. I don't think that could be any more wrong, half the fans probably didn't even look at his stats because they were booing Yost.

 

But you and I both know that when a fan screams "Player A sucks!"

 

There were a lot of fans booing Aquino after he gave up the runs, but the way Milwaukee fans are this season, they boo anytime that a run crosses the plate for the opposition

[DougJones43]

Since his rookie year (2004), Aquino has not been a very good pitcher. I think that's a pretty decent size of data to draw conclusions from. Also, how much praise does Ned really deserve for having the common sense to play the righty-righty matchup in that situation? That's one of the most fundamental decisions in baseball. Managers should be able to make decisions like that in their sleep without getting "credit" for it.

 

Yost needs to be able to take it a step further in that situation. It's not good enough to simply figure out whether to use RHP or LHP. Which pitcher it is can be fairly important as well (certain RHP are actually much better than others, they're not all exactly the same believe it or not!). There still doesn't seem to be any very convincing reasons for not using Cordero. I still say it was a very bad decision.

[Ennder]

I made a post on that page about a week ago but it isn't there anymore. That happens about half the time I post there so I don't generally do it.

 

Aquino's problems are that he walks too many guys and gives up a lot of hard hit balls. Shouses biggest strength this season is he's not giving up many extra base hits. To me its a no brainer between those two and Cordero is obviously the right choice if you look at the team as a whole.

[rluzinski]

As many as he has pitched in Milwaukee which off of the top of my head is probably around 10 or a little less, and I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that he should be used for anything other than a mop-up job. But what does it matter what I see, I think the majority of Brewers fans would agree that he is not a pitcher that you can depend on.

 

That's because the majority of baseball fans assess talent by watching a some games a remembering the most memorable ones, good or bad. The fact you use the same technique is not something I would proudly advertise.

 

And my point really isn't that Aquino is good, despite what he's done; it's that most fans have no idea how good Aquino really is because they look at such little information. And that's exactly the amount of information they use to judge Yost's moves.

[billyhallfan]

so now I watch baseball wrong? What has Aquino done to make me think that he should be used in the bullpen. I don't need to look at stats or graphs or formulas to decide to myself that he should not be used in the Brewers bullpen unless the game is out of hand. His stats aren't even all that good.

 

it's that most fans have no idea how good Aquino really is because they look at such little information

 

I don't believe I need to look at any information, I can watch him pitch and decide that for myself, I can watch Alex Rodriguez hit and decide that he is a pretty damn good player without ever looking at a single number.

 

why is that bad? I'm not saying that stats are useless, I'm just saying that you can't tell me that Aquino is good because of his minor league stats, because then you are twisting them and you can pick any stat and make a point out of it. Not you in this case, that article.

 

The fact you use the same technique is not something I would proudly advertise.

 

I'll decide what I want to advertise, but I haven't advertised anything yet.

[rluzinski]

I can watch Alex Rodriguez hit and decide that he is a pretty damn good player without ever looking at a single number.

 

Over a sample of a dozen ABs, you wouldn't be able to very well, even if you were looking at all the numbers. Heck, despite the fact that ARod is having a great season, he had an 0-19 hitless streak at one point this season. Had you been watching him for that one week stretch and known nothing else about him, would you have decided that he was a terrible hitter that shouldn't even be in the league?

 

That doesn't even address the fact that a fan can watch a month's worth of games and would be hard pressed to judge a player's performance over that time with any kind of accuracy. Come on, that happens to all of us. You remember a guy having a good or bad week or month, only to look it up and realize your memory has failed you.

 

Player's performances fluxuate way too much to make any kind of concrete assessment with such small samples, whether we are talking about a pitcher or hitter. That fact does not stop most baseball fan from making snap judgments about the skill levels of a baseball baseball players, however. There's always next weeks' performance to rejudge them, I guess.

[TooLiveBrew]

And my point really isn't that Aquino is good, despite what he's done; it's that most fans have no idea how good Aquino really is because they look at such little information. And that's exactly the amount of information they use to judge Yost's moves.

Well, glad that's settled...

[dadofandrew]

The difference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter is one hit a week. No one can tell the difference watching every game, never mind one game here and there.

[DougJones43]

...most fans have no idea how good Aquino really is because they look at such little information. And that's exactly the amount of information they use to judge Yost's moves.

 

Do you not see the irony in what you're saying? How do you know what "most fans" are basing their judgements on? You claim fans are in no position to judge a pitcher after observing him a handful of times. Yet you hear a few opinions at a game, on talk radio, or reading the internet, and now you're in a position to determine what an entire fanbase is thinking, and how they came to those conclusions? Give me a break. A lot of people (especially on this message board) seem to have very valid and well-informed reasons for thinking Aquino was a stupid choice.

[TooLiveBrew]

Maybe if Aquino had a WHIP north of 1.50 over his MLB career, critics would have a leg on which to stand.

[DougJones43]

The author of the article even concedes that Cordero should have been summoned. He also states that Ned's refusal to ever use Cordero to record 4 outs is "odd." I think the quote Russ picked out is misleading for what the article is really about. The author is just saying that Aquino was probably a better choice than Shouse, according to sabrmetrics.

 

The author seems to be under the impression that a majority of Brewer fans wanted Shouse to stay in the game. I'm not sure how he came to that conclusion, or if it's even true (but it sure makes the fans seem more like an uninformed lynch-mob, so let's go with it!). He also said Cordero would have been better than Aquino, and he's right. Cordero should have been brought in, which is what the a lot of people (at least on brewerfan.net) had been saying all along. It seems that Russ wanted to use the article to start up some kind of "fans are ignorant" spiel.

[logan82]

I think most of the arguments are because people have a different opinion of how much effect a manager's in game decisions make and wether a different manager would have made the same decision. I don't think many people thought Aquino was the best choice for that position. I didn't, but I still support Yost. Aquino, wether he should have been in there or not, still got to a 0-2 count and didn't finish. I would have to say that almost any pitcher should have been able to get one strike in that position.

[rluzinski]

A lot of people (especially on this message board) seem to have very valid and well-informed reasons for thinking Aquino was a stupid choice.

 

I don't think the readers of this message board represents the casual fan, though. I was at that game and I don't think it's unfair to assume that the majority of booing fans knew anything more about Awuino than the fact that he blew a couple leads earlier in the year.

 

I think the quote Russ picked out is misleading for what the article is really about.

 

I actually randomly choose that quote because I felt I should quote something. I only made a thread about this because I thought it might give a unique perspective.

It seems that Russ wanted to use the article to start up some kind of "fans are ignorant" spiel.

 

While I've never liked Yost and would like to see him replaced with someone better, I think that the amount of criticism he receives is pretty ridiculous right now. I don't think it really matters what he does at this point. I also think that most way overestimate the influence bad managinf has on winning. A good manager would not have generated 10 more wins than Yost. There's just no way, IMO.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just for clarification, who stated that Yost has cost us 10 games or that another manager would've been good for 10 more wins? Honest question.

[DougJones43]

While I've never liked Yost and would like to see him replaced with someone better, I think that the amount of criticism he receives is pretty ridiculous right now. I don't think it really matters what he does at this point.

Fair enough. Bringing up what was probably his most indefensible move in recent memory doesn't really illustrate that very well, IMO.

I was at that game and I don't think it's unfair to assume that the majority of booing fans knew anything more about Awuino than the fact that he blew a couple leads earlier in the year.

I think you should expand a little bit on that. I'm not saying your assumption is right or wrong, but I'm still not exactly sure why you feel as though you have such a strong handle on the thought process of 30,000+ people.