Tribune Looks At Cubs / Brewers Remaining Opposing Pitchers

[Mass Haas]

Link while active, text follows:

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-070911rogers,1,4562474.column?coll=cs-cubs-headlines

Loss in extras exactly what Cubs don't need
Phil Rogers
On Baseball

HOUSTON-If the Cubs are going to play baseball in October, they must win the winnable games in September.

Perhaps you can go 2-12 in one-run games in April and May, as the Cubs did, because there is time still to win your share of the close ones. But if they let games get away in September, the Cubs are going to find themselves watching the Milwaukee Brewers in October.

Trust me, they're going to like this less than anyone, including the television networks.

That's why Tuesday night's 5-4, 11-inning loss to the Houston Astros was such a downer.

Jason Marquis was given a 4-1 lead by Mark DeRosa's three-run homer but couldn't hold it.

A game the Cubs had been in control of instead meandered into extra innings, where Ryan Dempster blinked in the 11th inning.

Luke Scott's game-winning triple came long after the Brewers had held serve in Pittsburgh, beating the Pirates easily after getting pasted Monday. That's eight victories in the last 11 games for Milwaukee, which now leads the Cubs by one game and hasn't lost back-to-back games since Ben Sheets returned.

You couldn't tell baseball was in the stretch run by the atmosphere at Minute Maid Park. Many of the 33,493 counted in the paid crowd found it easier to buy tickets than to actually use them, and even the Cubs fans in attendance seemed only marginally interested in baseball's tightest division race.

Only two years after facing the White Sox in the World Series, the Astros have joined the Sox in tumbling into a battle of a whole different kind. They were among six teams separated by 1½ games for the worst record in the majors through Monday, with the biggest loser in line for the first pick in the 2008 draft.

Who said the Astros have nothing to play for anymore?

You know the Cubs are in the race because their hitters and their manager are showing signs of being overly anxious.

Bases loaded, two outs in the second inning. Houston starter Brandon Backe had just plunked Alfonso Soriano with a pitch and walked Ryan Theriot. He falls behind Derrek Lee 2-0, and Lee lets him off the hook by hitting a soft fly to right field.

Runners on first and second, one out in the eighth inning. Houston reliever Chad Qualls has just walked Daryle Ward intentionally. Soriano pops up the first pitch to shortstop. The inning ends when left fielder Carlos Lee makes a diving catch of Theriot's bid for extra bases.

Given the lifetime he has spent in the dugout, you would figure the 64-year-old Lou Piniella would be the last man to start pressing in September.

But it's hard to understand the tinkering he has done with his starting rotation, moving Steve Trachsel in front of Carlos Zambrano so Zambrano will pitch in St. Louis rather than Houston.

To give Zambrano a chance to set the tone against the Cardinals and then "to get everything back on track," Piniella is going to start Trachsel, Zambrano and Ted Lilly on three days' rest once each. That's a risky call, as the downside would seem to outweigh the advantages.

Zambrano is set to make four more starts the rest of the way. Why not let all of them be on their regular schedules?

The one move worth making is to start Lilly on three days' rest in Trachsel's place next Wednesday, before one of two scheduled off days in a five-day stretch. That allows Lilly to get an extra start, potentially in Game 162.

For the second time in two weeks, the Cubs will duck Roy Oswalt in this series. They get rookie Matt Albers and the 8-14 Woody Williams the next two games.

The Brewers won't be so lucky when they visit Houston next week, tentatively catching Oswalt on Sept. 19. He's hardly the only big-name pitcher due to go against Milwaukee, either.

In their remaining 18 games, the Brewers figure to see Oswalt, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Chris Young and, if the San Diego Padres need a victory to reach the playoffs, Jake Peavy (in Game 162).

Dontrelle Willis is the biggest name in the Cubs' future, and he's 8-15 with a 5.27 ERA to this point. Their biggest challenge figures to come when they twice catch Cincinnati's top two starters, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, in consecutive games Monday and Tuesday and on the last weekend of the season.

Pittsburgh's Tom Gorzelanny and St. Louis' Braden Looper are the only other double-figure winners in their way. That means the key for the Cubs isn't to make magic-just win the winnable games.

[NYChez]

Good information, but it seems like "how big of a name the starting pitcher is" is about #10 on the list of the items that affect whether the 2007 Brewers win or not (behind: how rested the bullpen is, how well the defense plays, how many runs the offense tacks on after knocking out the starting pitcher, etc.).

[jeffy]

Carlos Lee makes a diving catch http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/eek.gif

 

He does not do that often...thanks Carlos!

[RightFieldCoder]

Dontrelle Willis is the biggest name in the Cubs' future

 

Again, they just assume they'll be able to sign the best player in the offseason.

[stoops17]

Again, they just assume they'll be able to sign the best player in the offseason.

I took that as he is the most high profile player they face the rest of the season versus an offseason target.

[areacodes]

Dontrelle Willis is the biggest name in the Cubs' future

 

Again, they just assume they'll be able to sign the best player in the offseason.

 

I'm pretty sure he was talking about who they face the rest of the season as the Cubs play in FL the 25th-27th, not who they'll sign in the offseason.

[RightFieldCoder]

My fault. I listen to too much Chicago talk radio and get really mad when they make those assumptions.

[pretendastronaut]

It seems the Astros are quite the hope killer these last few weeks. The Cub fans seems as deflated after last night as many Crew fans did after that loss to the Astros.

[JohnBriggs12]

"If the Padres need a victory in game 162 to reach the playoffs, Jake Peavy."

 

Only the Padres are up by 2 1/2 games in the wild card. If they need a win in game 162, that would mean a slippage somewhere including losing some to the Brewers. In which case the Brewers likely would not need game 162.

 

You can turn the article around by saying which team faces more shaky pitching. The Reds are listing Dumatrait, TBA, and Belisle for the weekend. That's hardly imposing.

 

Oswalt has an ERA vs. the Brewer this season of 5.48. The other two Astro starters in that series figure to be Albers and Woody Williams. Who knows whether the Cardinals will be even in the race by the time the Brewers face them. If they are, it will be because they took 3 of 4 at least from the Cubs which is a good thing for the Brewers. If not, it will be because their pitching has failed them and that's also a good thing for the Brewers.

 

Bottom line though, it's one game at a time now. If the Brewers blast the weak pitching from here on out, it won't matter that they face some tough guys sprinkled in there. It will be enough.

[Ennder]

In their remaining 18 games, the Brewers figure to see Oswalt, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Chris Young and, if the San Diego Padres need a victory to reach the playoffs, Jake Peavy (in Game 162).

 

Oswalt - We have handed him 3 losses this year already so not too worried.

Hudson - Has a 4.31 ERA since May 20th, most of his stats were built in the first month when he was really hot.

Smoltz - worried about this one.

Maddux - 4.20 ERA on the road this year.

Young - 4.11 ERA on the road this year.

 

We do have worse pitching matchups in general but its really not nearly as big a deal as it may seem.

[endaround]

The Braves are done though, so I wouldn't be surprised if Cox doesn't lay of the whip to help out Yost.

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers have done just fine against big-name pitchers in recent weeks, in fact, they've done just fine against almost all pitchers in recent weeks.

 

This will be about how our own guys pitch, if our starters don't get blown off the mound, we will have a chance to win almost every day, no matter who's facing us. Things seem to be settling in for the Brewers right now, and I agree with the writer when he says the Cubs shouldn't be playing games with their rotation right now.

 

Who's famous isn't nearly as important as who's hot right now, the minute you beat a stud, some kid you've never heard of will kick your butt. Guess all you want, Mr Sportswriter, in September, it's only about today.

[fondybrewfan]

I am not worried. If the Brewers have taught us anything this year it is not to expect a loss against great pitchers and not expect wins against crappy pitchers. If we are hitting well we can beat anybody, if they arent hitting well my grandma could get through 7 innings

[dlk9s]

I agree completely with what splitter and fondy wrote. The pitchers to be concerned about are the Brewers' pitchers, not the opponents. This team has shown the ability to hit anybody and be blanked by anybody. Our cold streaks are typically the result of our own bad pitching. I mean, look at the last couple weeks. This team has played well, and while the hitting has been good overall, the pitching has been very good (a couple games excluded, which is always the case).

[thablingster]

We face Adam Wainwright, too, FWIW.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it's crazy that not only did stoops & (my boy) areacodes post the same comment within one minute of one another, but they have the same avatar, too...

 

http://www.impawards.com/tv/posters/twilight_zone.jpg