College Pitching?

[BrewPackBuck]

Is it a good crop of players this year? Im curious because I think the Brewers may take a college pitcher to try and help the current team in a couple years. Idk maybe my thinking is wrong but to me it wouldnt be a bad idea if there is a good crop of college pitching and could get a good one mid to late 1st round. Tell me what you guys think.

[colbyjack]

I think college pitching is probably the weakest grouping at this point in time, and the college players in general will probably be ranked lower overall than their prep counterparts.

 

Aaron Crow, a RHP from Missouri, was recently named the top prospect of the Cape Cod League this past summer. He commands his low-to-mid-90s fastball very well, and mixes in a solid SL and CH.

 

Brian Matusz had a very impressive year last year as a sophomore LHP of San Diego. Low to mid-90s FB with a hammer CB, solid CH and the perfect pitcher's build.

 

It's doubtful either one of these players falls to wherever the Brewers end up picking. If they do, injury and/or Boras is probably involved.

 

Lots of questions marks after that IMO. Most of the higher rated college arms are missing something. Cal's Tyson Ross has an incredibly loose arm and solid repertoire, but throws more in the 88-93 range and lands incredibly upright on his follow-through.

 

Ole Miss' Lance Lynn really needs to work on his offspeed pitches despite being very strong with his FB, while teammate Cody Satterwhite is a reliever IMO.

 

Pepperdine's Brett Hunter intrigues me if he can stick in the starting rotation. DHonks asks me every yearwho this year's version of Ben Sheets is, and this guy is it (low to mid-90s with a hammer breaking pitch).

 

Wichita State's Aaron Shafer has been rated highly since his impressive freshman year, but needs to get back into the 90-94 range after being more 88-91 this past spring & summer.

 

Christian Friedrich of Eastern Kentucky has a 88-92 FB and hammer curve and could vault past the minors to the bigs, but his ceiling is somewhat limited.

 

Virginia's Jacob Thompson is similar to Ross in that he has a solid repertoire, but isn't overpowering.

 

Many to most of the big arms (Ryan Perry, Luke Burnett, Satterwhite, Josh Lindblom) are relievers, although there are a few wild cards in Brett Jacobson, Scott Green and Shooter Hunt.

 

It could be a solid year for college closers, a position I wouldn't be surprised to see the Brewers target especially if they wind up landing extra comp picks for Cordero and/or Linebrink should either one of them leave via FA. Keep in mind that two of the more promising college closers from a year ago, Cole St. Clair and Josh Fields, have returned to Rice and Georgia respectively for their senior years.

[colbyjack]

Since I brought up St. Clair in this thread, I wanted to bring up his name since he's a pitcher I've liked for several years now:

 

Cole St. Clair

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=681&draftId=5

 

His cumulative stats through college:

 

13-2, 2.05 ERA, 98 games (2 starts), 25 saves, 175.2 IP, 106 H, 231 K, 54 BB

 

Yes, he has been used predominantly as a reliever in college, but I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing. For one, his arm is relatively fresh, as I believe he has the repertoire to be tried as a starter, or you could fast-track him as a reliever hoping he could help out your team within a year or two (or month or two) from being drafted.

 

He's been incredibly hard to hit at every level he has pitched, he hardly walks anyone and he misses bats extremely well. He throws in the low-90s with a good curve and a changeup that could be very good if he used it more.

 

He'll be a college senior next spring, making him one year older but also that much more polished. He took the summer off to rest his arm after suffering bicep tendinitis last spring after he strained his arm lifting weights (he returned later in the spring and was throwing 93 by the end of the season).

[colbyjack]

I've been breaking down a lot of players over the last month or so. While stats should not be taken too seriously at the college (or high school) levels, they can be used somewhat to get an idea of what a pitcher excels at, whether it be limiting walks, hits, missing bats, etc.

 

I'm going to post a series of career stats below without the names of the players that own those numbers, because I'm interested in knowing what kind of ratios prospect hunters are looking for. All of these players are legitimate prospects, and don't try to figure out who they are, I'll supply the names at a later date.

 

Pitcher A

17-7, 3.25 ERA, 37 games (35 starts), 232.1 IP, 193 H, 277 K, 83 BB

 

Pitcher B

22-6, 1.95 ERA, 38 games (37 starts), 235.2 IP, 174 H, 191 K, 69 BB

 

Pitcher C

17-9, 3.51 ERA, 41 games (37 starts), 233.2 IP, 193 H, 248 K, 104 BB

 

Pitcher D

16-11, 2.43 ERA, 40 games (37 starts), 244 IP, 208 H, 244 K, 87 BB

 

Pitcher E

13-9, 3.25 ERA, 45 games (37 starts), 235.2 IP, 222 H, 186 K, 62 BB

 

Pitcher F

10-6, 3.60 ERA, 37 games (22 starts), 132.2 IP, 142 H, 126 K, 42 BB

 

Pitcher G

21-7, 2.05 ERA, 42 games (40 starts), 232.2 IP, 153 H, 307 K, 89 BB

 

Pitcher H

21-7, 2.76 ERA, 39 games (36 starts), 222 IP, 191 H, 197 K, 64 BB

 

Pitcher I

21-9, 2.62 ERA, 43 games (38 starts), 257.1 IP, 220 H, 222 K, 75 BB

 

Pitcher J

11-8, 3.47 ERA, 52 games (32 starts), 210.1 IP, 171 H, 239 K, 95 BB