Let's Give Rickie Weeks some Props (merged with SoCal Brew Crew Fan's props thread)

[homer]

"About the only thing I think Weeks does well is run and draw walks. If he could not draw walks, he would not be in MLB. "

 

His power was sapped by the wrist thing which then messed with his head and screwed up his swing. Sending him to AAA was the best thing to happen to Rickie. He re-discovered his stroke. He might have a monster year in '08 (I'm talking 20 - 25 HRs, .290/.380/.450)

[jason21nl]

"About the only thing I think Weeks does well is run and draw walks. If he could not draw walks, he would not be in MLB. "

 

His power was sapped by the wrist thing which then messed with his head and screwed up his swing. Sending him to AAA was the best thing to happen to Rickie. He re-discovered his stroke. He might have a monster year in '08 (I'm talking 20 - 25 HRs, .290/.380/.450)

 

putting weeks on the dl and sending him down was the best thing for weeks. I think most of BF was screaming for one or the other to happen. Why did it take so long for the Brewers to do it? Weeks has been hitting the ball well latley, hopefully he continues to do it through sept. we really need it.

[Brian the Automator]

I'm going to say that the vast majority of people here have been largely supportive of Rickie through his struggles. I advocated the he should be optioned to get regular playing time just until he gets his timing back, but I've always believed he would be the answer at 2B for the Brewers for the foreseeable future. As wretched as his batting had been, I only saw like 2-3 people calling to trade him here. On other message boards and talk radio, people were not NEARLY as patient.

[clancyphile]

If I recall, Hall wasn't exactly a very good defender either. In fact this year his 9 errors is his fewest since 2002, and that year he only played in 15 games.

The thing I look at is Weeks still gets on base even when he isn't hitting. He and Estrada are pretty much opposite hitters. One has a high(wel kind of) BA and mediocre OBP and the other has a poor BA and a decent OBP.

When your slump consists of "0-fer" games with two or three walks, you're going to do well. Rickie learned how to draw walks this year - hopefully, ti continues.

[wallus]

"About the only thing I think Weeks does well is run and draw walks. If he could not draw walks, he would not be in MLB."

 

Well you could take away one important stat from a lot of players and then say they would not be in MLB. Rickie is also a good base stealer with having 16 of them with only two caught stealings. Now I am not going to go out on a limb and say that his defense is excellent or anything but improvement is always key with a young player. His error totals so far are half of last year. Also, he is making some excellent highlight level plays because he has a very strong arm.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The doctors had said that it would take a full calendar year after the surgery for all the scar tissue to break up and for Weeks' wrist to finally feel 100% again...it's very interesting that Weeks' demotion to AAA to work on his timing happened almost exactly 1 year after he underwent wrist surgery - the way he's swinging the bat now makes me think that the doctors were right, and he's only going to keep improving at the plate.

[Fatter than Joey]

His error totals so far are half of last year.

 

A lot of that is because he hasn't played in as many MLB games in 2007. -- He is the worst fielding (starting) 2b in MLB.

 

His fielding has regressed.

[TooLiveBrew]

Rickie Weeks in 2008 and beyond will be far better than serviceable. By the time he has peaked, we will have perhaps the best weapon at 2B in all of MLB

[homer]

A lot of that is because he hasn't played in as many MLB games in 2007. -- He is the worst fielding (starting) 2b in MLB.

 

His fielding has regressed.

Weeks played 92 games last year and had 22 errors. He's played in 95 games this year and has 11 errors.

His fielding percentage this year is .974 - last year was .952

 

The big difference is that his range factor is down (4.76 in 06 vs 4.37 in '07 but the league average is 4.24 so draw your own conclusions there) could mean he's not going for as many balls, could mean luck of the draw, but to say he's regressed is kind of a stretch. He's by NO MEANS a finished product and he's still well below average but if he can keep improving at his current rate he just might be servicable - and downright valuable if he can hit like he's capable of hitting.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/weeksri01.shtml

[Fatter than Joey]

By the time he has peaked, we will have perhaps the best weapon at 2B in all of MLB

 

Maybe if we trade for Chase Utley, when Weeks is peaking for the Devil Rays.

 

I am glad you guys are optimistic. I am certainly willing to be patient with Weeks, and don't want to DFA or trade him (at this point).

 

I just don't see that great of a player.

 

Hope I am wrong.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just don't see that great of a player.

Care to explain why?

[TauPentaRei]

To cross reference this props session with the 'economics of the future' thread, Prince is gone quicker than Boras can pick up a client's tab if Rickie leaves the team by any means. I can see Prince giving a hometown discount to play long term with his best friend. See Prince's mighty ticked off reaction when Rickie got sent down. Rickie's OBA is as important to the team as his locker presence is to Prince*.

*stat-heads let it go; no, I can't quantify it.

That being said, Weeks is the neo-Molitor, the key to the ignition. The real deal, the wheels, the gap triples, the 90% stolen base rate, the anti-Sheffield… defense - pshh - can be taught/learned, what Rickie already has comes from the birds and the bees.

I would sure like to know what front-page Buster Olney has to add to the discussion.

This team is like a 2001 Oregon Pinot Noir… so many complex elements swirling around and maturing, absorbing character… Of course it would taste good now*, but if you have the patience to wait 4 more years your mind will be blown by how everything came together. It all starts with Rickie… the soil? Prince = oak barrel, strength & consistency. Yost = manure, helping everything grow. Or Yost is manure and just leave it at that.

*yes I would like to taste now and I'm done waiting, so buy it by the case… it will only get better every year until it reaches its pinnacle (far away for this brew... crew)

[Fatter than Joey]

I can see Prince giving a hometown discount to play long term with his best friend.

 

No way. Prince and Rickie can still hang out if they play on different teams. In a couple of years, Prince will dump Rickie for Benj. Franklin

[Fatter than Joey]

Care to explain why?

 

I just do not think he is that good -- Of course it is too early to tell, one way or the other, I am sure he could have a solid MLB career, but I do not think he will be an elite player.

[adambr2]

His error totals so far are half of last year.

 

A lot of that is because he hasn't played in as many MLB games in 2007. -- He is the worst fielding (starting) 2b in MLB.

 

His fielding has regressed.

That's just flat out not true -- neither part of it. Weeks has played in 95 games this season, compared to 92 last season and 95 in 2005. He's going to have his most complete season in his career. I can't believe that anyone who has seen Weeks play this year would attempt to say that his fielding has regressed from last year. For one thing, the stats don't back that up at all. He has a .974 FP this year compared to .951 in 2005 and .952 in 2006, in an almost identical sample size of games. So I think it's quite clear that his fielding has improved rather dramatically, not regressed.

 

Also, his current FP is a lot due to the fact that he had a poor defensive week recently where he committed 3 errors in one week. You can't discount the entire season because of a couple of bad games. I'm not saying those errors don't count, but up until that point, Weeks was seen by some as our best starter defensively in the infield this season. I'm sure you've watched the games, and you've seen the same ones that I have -- I'm not sure how you can say that Weeks doesn't make more impressive plays, and just all around look more comfortable at 2nd base than he has at any point in his career. That's certainly what I've seen. You wouldn't know it from the last week, but over the course of the season, absolutely.

 

By the way, I'm not saying that Weeks is a good defender, or even a servicable one yet. But I do think he has made solid progress, and he absolutely has the athleticism to be a good defender.

[TooLiveBrew]

FTJ - honest question-- what about his game makes you think he's just flat-out not good? He has a disciplined eye at the plate, and with his wrist clearing up is displaying the power that some had simply written off as 'never gonna happen.' He steals bases incredibly efficiently, and his raw speed is an asset alone in nearly every facet of the game.

 

His fielding is inconsistent, but Rickie has made great strides since his turning point near the end of his 2006 season - but I'd agree it simply is what it is. He may get better, he may not, but with what we've seen him do at the plate when he's at or near 100%, I just don't understand why you feel so strongly that Weeks just isn't good. This thread feels eerily similar to all the "J.J. stinks" threads before the beginning of this season. When a player gets injured, it can make people forget what he's capable of doing. And, like J.J., we've seen what Weeks is able to do - but his injury has made us forget that a little, I think.

[brettac1]

The fact that he has fewer errors doesn't really show that he is a better fielder. He doesn't have as much range as you would think a guy as athletic as he is would have, he is seriously among the very worst fielding 2B's in the league. Things like getting hometown scoring decisions on balls that should have been errors help keep that count down - I remember one last week where he should have been charged with one, or simply not taking the chance on a ball that he could get to. I'm not saying he won't improve to become average one day, he very well could.

 

With the bat, he starting to remind me a little bit of Tony Phillips, maybe with a little more power, and that's a very good leadoff guy. I think the hand/wrist injuries and his violent swing are going to stop him from ever being the 30 HR guy that a lot of us envisioned when he was drafted, but if he hits 15-20 and walks 130 times and steals 30 bags, that's a perennial All-Star. I think he can reach that, but his hands have to stay healthy to allow it to happen (obviously). Even if he becomes Ray Durham, I won't complain a bit.

[Fatter than Joey]

That's just flat out not true -- neither part of it.

 

You are correct about the first part -- his errors and fielding pct. are both improved, however, errors and FPct are very subjective, from what I have seen, he has not improved very much at 2b. But the bottom line is, is that he is one of the worst, if not worst fielding 2b that starts in MLB.

 

So I think it's quite clear that his fielding has improved rather dramatically, not regressed.

 

I disagree -- See Brett's post, as he explains my reasoning better than I could.

 

Weeks was seen by some as our best starter defensively in the infield this season.

 

I have never read this or heard this -- however given the fact that Prince and Braun are 1/2 of our starting lineup -- just about any middle IFer in MLB, could be the best fielder in the Brewers IF.

 

But I do think he has made solid progress, and he absolutely has the athleticism to be a good defender.

 

He is athletic -- but so was Michael Jordan. W/o a doubt Weeks is a very gifted athlete -- but that does not ensure he will not have hands of stone.

 

I just don't understand why you feel so strongly that Weeks just isn't good.

 

I never said he "isn't good" -- I said (or meant to say) "isn't that good" in the context of another person's post, that is to say I don't think he will be a great player. I think he could be serviceable and I think he could be a bust, but it is not like I want to bring Jr. Spivey back.

 

This thread feels eerily similar to all the "J.J. stinks" threads before the beginning of this season. When a player gets injured, it can make people forget what he's capable of doing.

 

I don't think that is the case. A lot of people will blame the WOAHS of 2007 on our SP and RP, however equitable in the blame is our stinky defense. As he is today, I do not think his offensive abilities outweigh his defensive liabilities. I can live with Braun and Fielder's bad D, not Weeks though.

[bobskube]

Why a dig at Hall? I don't mind players being criticized, but please tell us why. Just a lower HR total? Or his defensive struggles in playing CF (by far the toughest OF spot) for the first time in his career? I know he hasn't put up the monster year we'd all hoped for from him, but a large part of why his HR totals are down is just literally due to his missing time because of injury.

 

He's still got some impressive 'secondary' stats, and I think it'd be a stretch (barring more injury woes) to think that Hall won't eclipse 20-25 HR in 2008, and probably each season for the remainder of his contract. That's pretty good for the position of CF, and in that vein, I think it's also reasonable to expect that his routes & fielding will only be improved next year, as well. I'm not saying he hasn't been struggling this year, but -like Weeks- his numbers when struggling are still not that bad. If Hall had dipped across the board, I'd be very worried about his future. Good thing for us that he hasn't.

I am a big Weeks guy and i was so frustrated in seeing him struggle. He was absolutely pathetic for awhile. He could not even drive a ball out of infield. However, you can see the difference in his swing at the plate now considerably.

But Hall has refused to adjust at the plate. Every once in awhile he shows glimpses, but never more than 3 or 5 ABs before he goes back in the tank again. Yes, I think Billy can overachieve for us in Center if bats no higher than 7th the rest of the way. He no longer deserves to bat any higher than that in the order.

 

[Ennder]

A lot of people will blame the WOAHS of 2007 on our SP and RP, however equitable in the blame is our stinky defense. As he is today, I do not think his offensive abilities outweigh his defensive liabilities. I can live with Braun and Fielder's bad D, not Weeks though

 

I'll support this point and take it a step farther. Our pitching has not been a problem this season, they have done the job expected of them. The defense has been so horrible that the team is giving up an extra run almost every other game according to some defensive metrics.

[bobskube]

Wow what a utterly wrong statement. Has he not lived up to our lofty expectations? No but to say he is horrible disregards stats. Rickie does not have a great batting average but he does have an excellent obp which is important for a leadoff hitter. His OPS is approaching 800 which is not "horrible" as you say. Players who have worse stats than Rickie currently starting at 2nd in MLB: Luis Castillo, Marcus Giles, Adam Kennedy, Ronnie Belliard, Kaz Matsui etc (that's just a few I could think of in the National League). To be a horrible player you would think that you would be at the bottom when it comes to stats for your position don't you?

 

When I call Weeks a "horrible 2b" I meant just that -- Weeks is a horrible 2b, not a horrible batter.

 

Weeks is about the worst 2b starting in baseball -- that is horrible.

 

Now if you want to look at his batting -- he is in the bottom half (.OPS). If you look at the guys that are underneath him, there are guys like Giles, Castillo, Ellis. etc. that are great fielders, and there are guys like Biggio, Durham, etc. that are the downslope of their career. Overall, Weeks is in the bottom tier of 2b, esp. when you factor in fielding.

 

About the only thing I think Weeks does well is run and draw walks. If he could not draw walks, he would not be in MLB.

 

He is young and has been injured, so I think it is reasonable to extend him some degree of a "mulligan", but I think his peak, is going to be somewhere around "serviceable".

I'm saving this quote. These are comments left for people of Mench's caliber, not Weeks. I could not disagree more with this poster and I am confident that this poster will eat most of these words. He can save my quote too and stick it in my face if I am wrong, but I doubt it.

 

[jason21nl]

But Hall has refused to adjust at the plate

 

and I'll disagree with that since he changed his batting stance a little. So he's trying different things to get better.

[logan82]

About the only thing I think Weeks does well is run and draw walks. If he could not draw walks, he would not be in MLB.

I am still trying to understand how getting on base and being fast is bad for a leadoff hitter. As for the 2nd part that is like saying, if Sheets couldn't pitch he wouldn't be in MLB. The fact is he does walk and gets on base at a very good clip. I see this as only a positive since at least if he isn't hitting, he still contributes on offense. As far as the defense, he is close to the worst defender, for starters, in MLB. He has however made big strides since coming up and with his athleticism there is no reason to believe he will not make further progress.

[bobskube]

But Hall has refused to adjust at the plate

 

and I'll disagree with that since he changed his batting stance a little. So he's trying different things to get better.

Good point. He did change the stance a little. However, even though he had a big hit the other day to right, he continues to roll over the outside pitches. He was doing it all of yesterday.

 

[gregmag]

About the only thing I think Weeks does well is run and draw walks. If he could not draw walks, he would not be in MLB.

 

He is young and has been injured, so I think it is reasonable to extend him some degree of a "mulligan", but I think his peak, is going to be somewhere around "serviceable".

 

FTJ, I'm going to pick on you a little bit, just because your posts are so consistently thoughtful and well-reasoned. But on this issue you seem to have picked a conclusion and stuck to it stubbornly, without giving anything close to fair consideration to the reasons that support the other side of the argument.

 

I agree that Weeks is a poor fielding 2b, although you have given no good account of why you believe (a) he has regressed, (b) he is at or near the very bottom of the pile, or © his athleticism won't allow him to improve significantly. Actually, you may believe ©; it's obviously hard to predict, so if you don't, we can agree to make opposing predictions.

 

At the plate, however, I think you're dead wrong. The only thing Weeks hasn't done well this year is hit for average. His power has actually been decent -- he has an ISO of .170, which is quite good for a 2b, let alone a leadoff man (the overall league average ISO this year is .162). He adds a lot of HBPs to his walks, and he has always done so. You granted his speed, but it's worth noting that he's also a brilliant percentage base stealer -- caught stealing only twice this year. In addition, he never grounds into double plays -- only three in 336 ABs this year. CS and especially GDP are two stats whose relative invisibility allows a lot of players to look better than they are.

 

But he's hitting .235, which of course sucks. I don't think any of us believe he's going to be a .235 hitter. His boosters (like me) think he has a decent chance to develop into a .300 hitter. But let's not go that far. Let's stop at .270. Let's assume that the only improvement he's ever going to make is that he'll turn into a .270 hitter -- a couple of points below this year's league average -- with the same percentage of his hits as this year going for doubles, triples, and homers. I'd say that's a very modest developmental assumption for a 24 year-old, with a broad skill set, who appears to have spent part of the year shaking off the effects of a major injury, and who scouts regarded well enough to acclaim by consensus as the best college hitter, and one of the top two players, in his draft class. You'd expect a guy like that to develop a lot more.

 

But let's say all he does is go from .235 to .270. If you adjust his numbers for this year, the .270 BA would give him seven more singles, three more doubles, one more triple, and one more homer. Again, a pretty modest projection for improvement going forward.

 

Make that adjustment to his stats this year, and his line is .270/.401/.464 -- OPS of .865. I'm pretty sure that would make him one of the best leadoff men and offensive second basemen in baseball. People mentioned Tony Phillips and Ray Durham as comparables, and that's about right -- except Rickie would put up power numbers that Phillips only achieved at his peak and would draw substantially more walks than Durham. That's not "serviceable" -- that's a cornerstone of a championship team. Even if he remained among the league's worst defenders at his position, he'd be among the top overall players at the position in most seasons.

 

That's if he hits .270 -- and like I said, I can't imagine any reason to assume he'll hit below .270. So that's a low-end projection -- that's assuming he doesn't get better at anything else, that his power numbers reflect no improvable consequence of the wrist injury. This is why I respectfully suggest that your projection is indefensibly pessimistic.

 

Greg.