Simulating the NL Central Race

[naivin]

So your telling me there's a chance!

 

YEEEEAAAH!

 

I read ya.

[logan82]

NIce. I like the Dumb and Dumber quote.

[zzzmanwitz]

today helped... enough said

[dlk9s]

Lest we forget, the Brewers are still alive in the Wild Card race!

 

So, root for SF over SD, LA over COL, and ATL over PHI.

[And That]

Our odds for making the playoffs as a WC can't be much more than 1 or 2%. Even if SD loses another game tonight, we're 4 games behind SD and Philly, with Atlanta (grr) and Colorado in between.

[dlk9s]

Our odds for making the playoffs as a WC can't be much more than 1 or 2%. Even if SD loses another game tonight, we're 4 games behind SD and Philly, with Atlanta (grr) and Colorado in between.

Don't mess with the fantasy.

 

[rluzinski]

The odds for the WC are pretty much zero. It's NL Central or bust. 16% of at least a piece of the NL Central. That sounds a lot better than the odds for a couple days ago. A Brewer win and Cubs loss tomorrow would just be crazy.

[And That]

A Brewer win and Cubs loss tomorrow would just be crazy.

Sorry to get greedy, but what do the odds change to if that happens tomorrow?

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Here's a positive to ponder. The Padres play on west coast Wednesday night, then will board a plane likely around 1-2 am Milwaukee time and won't get to their hotel until 5-6 am then have to play Thursday night. Now sometimes it's amazing how these athletes can recover, but this team has been playing pressure games every night and physically, the Brewers should have a huge advantage.

 

The Cubs also have to travel Thursday night to play in Cincy on Friday.

 

The mood here in Chicago has changed slightly after last night. There is now some apprehension. If the Brewers get it to one game, I'd expect some panic to show itself.

[LS Brewer]

The mood here in Chicago has changed slightly after last night.

 

I've noticed it as well this morning on the local CHicago TV news and among co-workers.

[naivin]

Still no real pressure on the Brewers, and I would say the pressure on the Cubs ratcheted up slightly after last night. Another good day today and pressure shifts squarely to the Cubs. The odds remain very, very long, but I'd love to see what happens if we can continue to close the gap over the next couple days.

[Team Canada]

Another happy thought: I believe the Cubs have now lost 9 straight to the Marlins.

[naivin]

Another happy thought: I believe the Cubs have now lost 9 straight to the Marlins.

 

Not sure I like that - the law of averages would seem tomake that a bad thing.

[Bucky Rules]

The mood here in Chicago has changed slightly after last night. There is now some apprehension. If the Brewers get it to one game, I'd expect some panic to show itself.

And let's not forget. These are still the Cubs. So, we've got that going for us... which is nice.

[WINDY SHRIMP]

If only we hadn't blown those two saves last week... ouch

[rluzinski]

Brewers win outright: 5%
Brewers tie: 12%

Here are the final record probabilities:

Wins	Total	At Least
81	2.1%	100.0%
82	12.3%	97.9%
83	28.9%	85.6%
84	33.3%	56.7%
85	19.0%	23.4%
86	4.4%	4.4%
	100.0%

If the Brewers win and Cubs lose tonight...

Brewers win outright: 13%
Brewers tie: 21%

Not sure I like that - the law of averages would seem tomake that a bad thing.

The law of averages is a fallacy. It's something a gamber made up to justifty losing more money. It doesn't matter that the Marlins have won x amount of games in a row against the Cubs, either way.

[Fatter than Joey]

By the way -- last night the Brewers (and the Cubs) were officially eliminated from the WC race -- not that it was a big possibility these last weeks -- but Math is not on our side anymore.

[OglivieHomePerm]

Psychologically, the Brewers' playoff hopes took a big hit last night, but according to Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds, last night only reduced the Brewers odds by 4 percent (14% to 10%). It was a long shot before last night, and it's still a long shot.

 

Brewers take 3 of 4 from the Padres....Cubs lose 3 of 4 to Reds/Marlins, and we've got ourselves a playoff!

[rluzinski]

Brewers win outright: 3%

Brewers tie: 10%

 

If the Cubs lose this afternoon and the Brewers win tonight:

 

Brewers win outright: 10%

Brewers tie: 23%

[Bucky Rules]

Russ -- I'm not knocking your numbers, just double-checking. You usually don't take into account pitching matchups and some other factors in your numbers. I assume you haven't done that here, either -- right? It's conceivable you could have, considering the few games left and the fact that there's only two teams involved. But, probably not.

Also... did you adjust the numbers any for the fact that the Cubs are the Cubs?http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif Something's got to work in our favor. I'm looking for anything.

[rluzinski]

No pitching match ups, no billy goat factor.

[treego]

With three games to go:

 

By my calculations (assuming both the Cubs and Brewers have a 50/50 chance to win their remaining individual games), the Brewers have a 1/64th (1.6%) chance of passing the Cubs by season-end. The Brewers have a 6/64ths or or 3/32nds (9.4%) chance of tying the Cubs by season-end.

[Katuluu]

I am resigned to thinking this thread will be more appealing next year.

[Fatter than Joey]

There is a 67.7% chance of a tie for the Wild Card spot, with a 12.7% chance of a three-way tie and a 6.5%

chance of a four-way tie.

 

32.3% chance of a tie. NL East

 

26.1% chance of a tie. NL West

 

I know this is off-topic a bit -- but what a race! -- I don't remember SO MANY teams having such a "meaningful" September (as we like to say around here).

 

It seems likely that we will enjoy a few bonus "playoff" games.

[endaround]

Thing is this thread was much more appealing in June when it didn't exist.