Simulating the NL Central Race

[Team Canada]

I bet if you switched the schedules the Brewers would be the heavy favorite.

[rluzinski]

This boggles my mind. Yes, I know, the Brewers appear to have the tougher of the two scedules, but they control their own desitiny (so to speak), and the Cubs don't.

 

Controling your own destiny doesn't mean much, by itself, with regard to these odds. It's not like the Brewers are going to win out, right? As fans, it comforting to know that our team doesn't have to rely on the misfortunes of another team but it has no direct effect on the probabilities.

 

When you consider the relative strength of each team (cubs very slightly stronger) and ease of their remaining schedule, you see that the cubs are expected to finish with .6 more wins than the Brewers. Because it's less than a win, as soon as the Brewers get a one game lead over the Cubs (hopefully today!), that advantage is completely erased and then some.

 

Thankfully, the season isn't played 300,000 times. It's played once. One team can tank it pretty quickly. One team can dominate the same way.

 

Well, sure. The average guess might be that the Brewers would come out on top about 40% of the time but that can change quickly. The Brewers win the next two and the Cubs lose today and it's the Brewers who would be the clear favorites (about 2 to 1 favorites).

 

Here's the scenario I'm eyeing up. If the Brewers can get through this road trip a half a game over the Cubs, they'll be the clear favorites. For instance, the Brewers might finish their road trip with a 3-2 run and the cubs split the remaining 4 games of their home stand. Here are the resulting odds:

 

Regular Season Outcome:
Cubs Win			26.7%
Brewers Win			52.8%
Crew & Cubs Tie			20.5%
Win NL Central
Brewers			61.8%
Cubs			38.2%

 

[rluzinski]

Big game tonight:

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/biggame.jpg

[OglivieHomePerm]

I'm calling it a "must-win" :-)

[Katuluu]

I am resigned to hating this thread for the next several days.

[davego]

Would it be safe to assume that 3 of 4 are need in Atlanta?

[OglivieHomePerm]

We are officially into the small sample size portion of the schedule. Anything can happen in the 20 games that remain between the Cubs and Brewers. Stats can tell us what is the most likely outcome, but just like trying to use small sample size stats to predict long-term production, you can't use large-sample stats to predict the outcome of a small set of games.

 

All the Brewers need to do is WIN. And when they lose a game (which they will), they just need to win the next one.

 

That's the mindset that I'm trying to stay in....just trying to keep myself sane for the rest of the month.

[endaround]

Yes anything can happen. You can flip 10 heads in a row. But don't be too disappointed if you don't

[rluzinski]

Would it be safe to assume that 3 of 4 are need in Atlanta?

 

I wouldn't go that far. If the Cubs take 2 of 3 from the Pirates and the Brewers split the Braves, the oddsare right about where they are right now (22%). Personally, I'd be fine with that scenario and would take my chances with the Brewers making a final push at home.

 

Any scenario worse than that will be big trouble, however. Cubs sweep or the Brewers only take one = 10% chance of the Brewers catching up.

[SeriesFinale]

Here's a handy-dandy chart, all simulations and odds aside:

 

If the Cubs go......Brewers record to tie....to win:

 

0-9....2-9...3-8

1-8....3-8...4-7

2-7....4-7...5-6

3-6....5-6...6-5

4-5....6-5...7-4

5-4....7-4...8-3

6-3....8-3...9-2

7-2....9-2...10-1

8-1....10-1...11-0

9-0....11-0...N/A

[pitchleague]

thanks, series, that's a nice chart. Kinda need to print that off and put it in my wallet for 100s of times I'll need to check it in the next week and half. Seriously.

[sheethead]

We might not want to look at the new probabilities now that its almost certain Sheets will be shut down. Hopefully he takes some time to read every page of WebMD.

[rluzinski]

We might not want to look at the new probabilities now that its almost certain Sheets will be shut down.

 

First of all, unless I missed something, nothing is "almost certain" at this point. Sheets is out for an undetermined amount of time.

 

Second, when we are talking about 2 starts, the effect isn't too big. Replacing Sheets with a starter who would be expected to have an ERA about a run higher (3.5 vs. 4.5 between Sheets and Cappy is my rough estimate), that costs the team about 8% of a win every start that he misses. Sheets missing 2 starts lowers the average expected win total by around .16 wins. The injury is by no means insignificant but the fact that the Brewers have such a good #6 option to replace Sheets helps a lot.

[sheethead]

i definitely want to agree with you luzinski, but its hard to forget how the Brewers fared without Sheets this year.

[rluzinski]

Final Record Probabilities:

Wins	Total	At Least
79	0.4%	100.0%
80	3.2%	99.6%
81	11.9%	96.4%
82	24.2%	84.5%
83	29.3%	60.3%
84	21.2%	31.0%
85	8.3%	9.8%
86	1.4%	1.4%

Chance of at least tieing the Cubs: 5%

If we want to start talking about even semi-reasonable scenarios that could get the Brewers back into the race, it starts and ends with a Brewer sweep of the Cards and the Marlins winning the series against the Cubs. The odds of a Brewers sweep is about 25%. The odds of the Cubs losing the Marlins series is 41%.... 10% chance the above scenario even happens. But if it does....

Brewers Win NL Central Outright: 5%
Brewers Tie NL Central: 15%

So, I guess we have that going for us!

[patrickgpe]

not sure where to put this, but ill put it here instead of starting a new thread. while its going be difficult to make up the 3 and a half games its not impossible. First of all the brewers need to win atleast 6 and most likely all 7. Now we come to the cubs. On Tuesday they have to face Willis. ON wednesday, the matchup is in their favor with Barone facing Marquis. Keep in mind though that Marquis looked awful last time out. On Thursday, the cubs bring out Traschel, which has been less than stellar since rejoining the cubs. Friday is Hill vs Arroyo, who has been good this year despite his record. Saturday is harang vs zambrano. Then if we can get within a game on Sunday the reds bring out bailey vs lilly, which is going to be a tough matchup. I kind of feel like a politician who knows that 70% of the returns are in and he is way down but just won't concede until all the numbers are in.

[TooLiveBrew]

ESPN is reporting the state of Playoffia for the Cubs...

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/media/election2000/images/electnight6.jpg

[adambr2]

not sure where to put this, but ill put it here instead of starting a new thread. while its going be difficult to make up the 3 and a half games its not impossible. First of all the brewers need to win atleast 6 and most likely all 7. Now we come to the cubs. On Tuesday they have to face Willis. ON wednesday, the matchup is in their favor with Barone facing Marquis. Keep in mind though that Marquis looked awful last time out. On Thursday, the cubs bring out Traschel, which has been less than stellar since rejoining the cubs. Friday is Hill vs Arroyo, who has been good this year despite his record. Saturday is harang vs zambrano. Then if we can get within a game on Sunday the reds bring out bailey vs lilly, which is going to be a tough matchup. I kind of feel like a politician who knows that 70% of the returns are in and he is way down but just won't concede until all the numbers are in.

So basically, we need to sweep the Cardinals in a 3 game series, sweep the Padres in a 4 game series, and hope that the Cubs choke against the Marlins and Reds. Simple.

[logan82]

Considering the level of pitching the Cubs are facing this week, I think 5% is generous. I think outside of Arroyo and Harang the pitching the Cubs are facing could best be described as "craptastic".

[rluzinski]

Considering the level of pitching the Cubs are facing this week, I think 5% is generous. I think outside of Arroyo and Harang the pitching the Cubs are facing could best be described as "craptastic".

 

Considering that I use teams' "runs against" and the Cubs are facing the Reds' top of the order, I'd say the 5% accounts for the bad pitching and then some.

[Katuluu]

I officially unofficially hate this thread.

[logan82]

Considering the level of pitching the Cubs are facing this week, I think 5% is generous. I think outside of Arroyo and Harang the pitching the Cubs are facing could best be described as "craptastic".

 

Considering that I use teams' "runs against" and the Cubs are facing the Reds' top of the order, I'd say the 5% accounts for the bad pitching and then some.

 

I know you do Russ. I was kidding.

[rluzinski]

Well, pitching match ups can sometimes make my probabilities way off, so I thought I should explain it.

[DannoMac21]

I read the pre-game read-up on Dontrelle, and it said that Dontrelle's last start was phenomenal against the Mets. Hopefully he can come back to form tomorrow.

[rluzinski]

Currently, the odds of the Brewers at least tieing the NL Central is 7%. A Brewer win and a Cubs loss tonight would raise that to a semi-hopeful 16%. Again, the only way the Brewers still have a reasonable shot going into the Padres series is if they finish the sweep of the Cards and the Marlinss win their series against the Cubs. The odds of a Brewers finishing the sweep is now about 39%. The odds of the Cubs losing the Marlins series is 41%. 16% chance both occur.

 

The Brewers also have a 93% chance of finishing with a winnings season.