Simulating the NL Central Race

[rluzinski]

Between 82-83 is the average expected win total, so things could still go very good or very bad from here on out.

[And That]

84 still looks like a very good number to me. I think finishing over 500 is a very likely event.

[brewcrewkid14]

If the Brewers can go 4-3 in their remaining seven road games, I'm pretty confident about our chances because of the 10 home games we have left. That would allow us to go 6-4 in those home games and we would be at 84 wins with a 10-7 record in our last seventeen games.

 

Am I looking to far into these remaining games? Probably.

[Fatter than Joey]

Russ -- In another thread you made a comment to the effect of "you have to be happy with a .500 road trip".

 

Normally I would wholeheartedly support that claim -- but it made me wonder "Is .500 on the road good enough?" -- Clearly, there now is a reality that we have to play as good as the Cubs -- That is to say, if the Cubs go 7-3, we have to go at least 7-3.

 

I wonder if your simulation has the ability to gauge "If .500 is good enough". That is to say how often, do the Brewers win the NL Central with a .500 or lower winning pct. on the road?

 

If this is hard to do, then it isn't worth the effort, but working under the presumption that we have "Road WOAHS", I thought it would be interesting to see how critical .500+ play is for the Brewers on the road.

[rluzinski]

Win NL Central
Brewers			32.4%
Cubs			67.0%
Cards			0.7%

If the Brewers take 2 of 3 this weekend, and the Cards take 3 of 4:

 

Win NL Central
Brewers			51.2%
Cubs			47.1%
Cards			1.5%

FTJ: Here are the calculated win probabilities for the remaining road games:

 

Astros: 53.2% (3 game series)

Braves: 42.1% (4 game series)

 

Weighted average of 46.9%, working out to an expected road record of about 3-4.

[TauPentaRei]

no offense, but these statistics are meaningless. at this point you're either with Ned (and his gut) or you're against Ned (and his gut).

 

As much as it pains me to do so and contrary to all rationale thought, I am putting myself in Ned's (and his gut) corner.

 

10% of the season left*... it has been a wonderful ride.

 

there is an appropriate ancient saying - that i have had no luck googling for - regarding just this * point. it's either buddhist or taoist, definitely of the eastern metaphyscial persuasion that says (paraphrased):

 

"...on a 10 mile walk, consider your journey 50% complete at the 9 mile mark..."

 

so according to the wisdom, the Crew has only completed 50% of its journey. 17 games in 17 days, love it.

[patrickgpe]

i think the stats are fun. I check the bp simulations every morning (the cubs winning yesterday moved it to approximately 60% - 40 % cubs). We know its meaningless. Simulating the season does not affect what happens on the field, but its fun to be able to follow this on september 14th for a change.

[rluzinski]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the exact probabilities either, since the results of a game or two can swing the numbers widely (as you would expect, when one team is projected to finish within one game of the other.. Still, there are interesting things to extract from them. First, the Cardinals are just about done, even if they take 3 of 4 from the Cubs this weekend. Second, a one playoff between the Brewers and Cubs is still a real possibility. Talk about a must win! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Team Canada]

no offense, but these statistics are meaningless. at this point you're either with Ned (and his gut) or you're against Ned (and his gut).

 

What's that supposed to mean?

 

[TauPentaRei]

no offense, but these statistics are meaningless. at this point you're either with Ned (and his gut) or you're against Ned (and his gut).

 

What's that supposed to mean?

 

 

no offense: i do not intend any personal insult by the forthcoming comment

statistics: numerical numerations predicated upon past performance

meaningless: devoid of value

at this point: with 17 games remaining in the regular season

with Ned: of the belief that the quad centennially occurence of milwaukee baseballers post season play has ensured a cosmically predetermined outcome

against Ned: a cubs fan

 

What's that supposed to mean?: (interpreted as) a confrontational, adversarial questioning of a comical modified allusion to a statement made by the 43rd president of the United States seeking clarification

 

so stringing together all of the rhetoric, i guess it's supposed to mean:

 

i do not intend any personal insult by the forthcoming comment, but these numerical numerations predicated upon past performance are devoid of value. with 17 games remaining in the regular season, you're either of the belief that the quad centennially occurence of milwaukee baseballers post season play has ensured a cosmically predetermined outcome or you're a cubs fan.

[Tailgat0r76]

...

I think this thread is one of very few that doesn't involve Ned or anything.

That comment really just came out of nowhere...

[Team Canada]

I just don't understand the comment or where it came from, unless it was a throwaway remark that was in fact not supposed to mean much. This simulation is not meaningless, it's based in very real statistics, and I believe we all understand that it will not dictate the future of the Brewers. Still, it's very interesting to see some *probabilities* about the chances of each scenario occurring.

 

What that has to do with Ned and his gut, I have no idea.

[TauPentaRei]

I just don't understand the comment

 

What that has to do with Ned and his gut, I have no idea.

I will take my cue and exit stage left from this roundtable discussion of charts, permutations, percentages and calculatation-matrices.

 

I believe that all of the ones and zeros are very much dependent on Ned's gut, frankly.

It is my opinion that the Brewers latest chance of winning the Central (32.4%) is incorrect. I believe it to be 100% until further notice.

[rluzinski]

Updated through the weekend:

 

Regular Season Outcome:
Cubs Win			0	71.0%
Brewers Win			0	17.2%
Crew & Cubs Tie			1	11.7%		57.0%	(cubs win tie)
				99.9%
Win NL Central
Brewers				22.2%
Cubs				77.7%

Those numbers might seem discouraging but they can change pretty quickly with such a tight race. A Brewers win and a Cubs' loss tonight would boost the Brewers chances of forcing at least a 1 game playoff to 45%, for instance.

 

The biggest problem for the Brewers is that the Cubs have such an easy remaining schedule, especially compared to the Brewers. The Cubs have an average win prob. of 57% for their remaining games, compared to the Brewers 50%. That doesn't factor in pitching matchups, however, which favor the Brewers in the short run.

 

The Braves series is the scary one, with the Brewers having a win prob. of only 42% for those games. A series split would provide a decent boost to the Brewers chances (provided they take care of the Astros and win at least 2 of 3). I'm trying to be semi-realistic by hoping for a 3-3 home stand from the Cubs and a 4-3 road trip by the Brewers. That would put the Brewers a half game back with a week of home games left.

[BrewCityUnit]

I think the Brewers will have to go 10-4 to force a one game playoff with the Cubs.

 

I think the Cubs SHOULD win 2 out of 3 the rest of the way to finish 8-4.

[Klements Bratwurst]

For what it is worth, here is the records against each of the remaining opponents for the Brewers and the Cubs:

 

CUBS:

Reds W5 L7

Pirates W6 L7

Marlins W0 L3

 

W11 L17

 

 

BREWERS:

Astros W11 L4

Braves W1 L 2

Cardinals W5 L 7

Padres W0 L 3

 

W17 L16

 

 

Well one thing for certain is, our last home stand, I would think that the "law of averages" might have to start working in our favor again. We have lost 6 straight to the Cards (like two sweeps) and of course were swept by the Padres in May. I would think a couple of sweeps for the Brewers the other way ought to work out- right Russ? (LOL). Lets hope that the Astros don't figure that out this week against us!!!!

[BrewCrewRising]

http://www.starwarscards.net/cards/2004heritage/032.jpg

 

 

[rluzinski]

Final Record Probabilities:

 

Wins	Total	At Least
79	0.9%	99.8%
80	3.4%	99.0%
81	8.7%	95.5%
82	15.7%	86.9%
83	21.0%	71.2%
84	21.2%	50.2%
85	15.8%	29.0%
86	8.7%	13.1%
87	3.4%	4.4%
88	0.9%	1.1%

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/finalrecord.jpg

[MillerPark]

So, rluzinski...acccording to the chart above me there, the Brewers have the best chance of only going 6-7 or 7-6 the rest of the way ...hmmm, that's not too promising, considering that they're playing better than that.

[Katuluu]

I used to like this thread. Now ... not so much.

[Katuluu]

I am thinking I like this thread a little bit more then I previously ascertained.

[bullox]

^^ I want a daily report on how much you like this thread on a 1-10 scale.

[rluzinski]

300,000 simulations
		AVE W
Cubs		84.7
Brewers		84.1
Regular Season Outcome:
Cubs Win		51.8%
Brewers Win		31.8%
Crew & Cubs Tie		16.4%		55.9%	chance cubs win tie
Win NL Central:
Brewers		39.0%
Cubs		61.0%
Brewer Final Win Total:
Wins	Total	At Least
79	0.2%	100.0%
80	1.4%	99.7%
81	4.8%	98.3%
82	11.3%	93.5%
83	19.0%	82.2%
84	22.7%	63.2%
85	20.0%	40.5%
86	12.7%	20.5%
87	5.7%	7.8%
88	1.7%	2.1%
89	0.3%	0.3%
90	0.0%	0.0%

A Brewers win and a Cubs loss today will make the Brewers the statistical favorite to win the Central.

 

Edit: everything looks so nice when I first paste it in the box. Owell.

[Patrick425]

Win NL Central:
Brewers		39.0%
Cubs		61.0%

This boggles my mind. Yes, I know, the Brewers appear to have the tougher of the two scedules, but they control their own desitiny (so to speak), and the Cubs don't.

[MHgb]

Thankfully, the season isn't played 300,000 times. It's played once. One team can tank it pretty quickly. One team can dominate the same way.