Who is in the best position to win the NL Central?

[crewcrazy]

I think it should be noted that the Cubs haven't really performed well against their opponents to finish out the year so far this season:

 

vs. STL: 7-4

vs. HOU: 6-6

vs. CIN: 5-7

vs. PIT: 5-7

vs. FLA: 0-3

 

Just for a comparison, here's how the Brewers have done against the teams they finish out September against:

 

vs. PIT: 9-4

vs. CIN: 5-7

vs. HOU: 11-4

vs. ATL: 1-2

vs. STL: 5-7

vs. SD: 0-3

[rluzinski]

It's great to see the Brewers as the favorites but when they are expected to win less than 1 extra game more than the Cubs, those odds can shift very quickly. A Cubs win today and a Brewers' lose tonight could make the Cubs the favorite again, depending on what system you use to calculate it.

[BrewCityUnit]

Considering both teams schedule, I still think the Cubs should be the favorites to win the division. I am really hoping for a 3 game lead heading into Atlanta on September 20th.

[rluzinski]

Considering both teams schedule, I still think the Cubs should be the favorites to win the division. I am really hoping for a 3 game lead heading into Atlanta on September 20th.

 

The Cubs expected average win probability is something like 55% for each game, compared to 51% for the Brewers. Certainly the easier schedule but when it's only over 20 games, it doesn't amount to much (not even 1 win extra). Being 1 game ahead (at the time) is a bit more valuable. Really though, it's too close to act like either team has a meaningful advantage, IMO.