Who is in the best position to win the NL Central?

[logan82]

I have to go with the Cardinals. Unless they drop something like 3 games back they play enough games against the teams ahead of them that all they have to do is win the head to head games to make up games in teh standings. Both the Brewers and the Cubs have to rely on other teams to win a game for us. I know there will be a playoff if we tie, but I really don't want it to come to that. It would really mess things up for the post season.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I would think without Encarnacion and Rolen, things are going to be tough for the 'Cards. Not counting them out, but they are playing without a few key pieces.

 

I'd love to call it the Brewers over the Cubs, but with the way the bullpen (and starters, frankly) has really struggled to hold onto even big leads, I'd give a slight edge to the Cubs. Hope I'm wrong of course.

[Vgmastr]

Another detriment for the Cards is because of rainouts, their last off day was August 27th. With a doubleheader next weekend, that's 35 games in 34 days. In addition, after their series in Arizona this weekend, they have to stop in Chicago for one game, then go to Cincinnati. In the final week, after their series with Milwaukee, they have to go to New York for one game, then go to Pittsburgh. That's a lot of travel with very little time off. Hopefully, they'll be worn out by the end of the season.

[Ennder]

I would think without Encarnacion and Rolen, things are going to be tough for the 'Cards. Not counting them out, but they are playing without a few key pieces.

 

These are probably upgrades given how poorly Rolen has played this year. I think the Brewers probably have the hardest overall schedule but they got the extra day off which helps too.

[lumberrule]

The Brewers clearly have an advantage schedule-wise. While they certainly aren't good on the road, the only real decent team they have to face on the road the rest of the year is Atlanta. The Brewers two toughest series left are both at home, which is a big plus.

 

The Cards just have too many injuries, and as been already pointed out, their schedule flat out sucks.

[DuWayne Steurer]

the only real decent team they have to face on the road the rest of the year is Atlanta.

 

 

The only problem is that it doesn't take even a decent team to manhandle the Brewers away from Miller Park.

[LUKE232323]

I actually figured out the breakdown today, only between Crew and Cubs:

 

Including the Dodgers game today:

 

Crew: 9 home, 13 away, .478 combined opponents winning %, 10 games vs. .500+ teams.

Cubs: 8 home, 15 away, .455 combined opponents winning %, 5 games vs. .500+ teams.

 

I think Cubs have it easier, mainly because they play at least decent baseball on the road and the Cards are the only team they play the remainder of the season that is .500 or better. Meanwhile, the Crew still has a 4 gamer at the Braves, and we all know they struggle mightily no matter where they play on the road.

 

We will probably have to go 7-6 or better in my opinion on those remaining road games to win the division. With 4 of those at ATL, that will be a tough task.

 

The other thing I do not like is that we finish the season against two teams who will still likely be in it, the Cards and Padres. Cubs have the Pirates and Marlins, two teams who have nothing to play for.

[bucks2281]

If the Braves are completely out of the race, though, is there a possibility that Bobby Cox will start a couple of young pitchers or maybe start some of his Sep. call-ups? I heard somebody mention this on WSSP, and I think it may be plausible, considering the Cox-Yost connection. Or maybe I'm just thinking wishfully...

[lumberrule]

If the Braves are completely out of the race, though, is there a possibility that Bobby Cox will start a couple of young pitchers or maybe start some of his Sep. call-ups? I heard somebody mention this on WSSP, and I think it may be plausible, considering the Cox-Yost connection. Or maybe I'm just thinking wishfully...

 

It's not gonna be who the other team throws out at us...its going to be how OUR pitchers fare against their lineup. Our starting pitching was much improved over the homestand, they now have to be able to carry it on the road.

[AdvantageSchneider]

The Brewers clearly have an advantage schedule-wise. While they certainly aren't good on the road, the only real decent team they have to face on the road the rest of the year is Atlanta. The Brewers two toughest series left are both at home, which is a big plus.

 

The Cards just have too many injuries, and as been already pointed out, their schedule flat out sucks.

 

Don't the Padres count as a decent team?

[Boy Jeenius]

Re-read lumberrule's post AS. It says toughest games are at home(Padres). Atlanta is the tough road foe.

 

Luke's post makes the best statement that the Cubs probably have an advantage schedule-wise. Brewers have a chance if Zambrano continues to go winless.

[pebadger]

Cubs actually have two off days coming up, but that's cancelled out by teh DH at STL next weekend.

 

I honestly don't know who's in the best position. The Crew has the toughest schedule to face in my opinion, but all those game in all those days won't be easy on teh Cards, and the fact that the Cubs have only 7 home games left would seem to be their only negative (though it may do them good to get out of what would probably be a pressure cooker at Wrigley).

 

My thought is that 84 wins it, or at least gets a share.

 

The Brewers need to find a way to beat the the Cards 2 of 3 and then win at least 3 of the 4 series vs the Reds, Pirates and 'Stros. That gets them over halfway there or even better if you can sweep. Just win 3 of those last series though, don't get swept in the other and you "just" have to split with ATL and SD to get to 84.

 

I guess I'd rather have the Cards carve up teh Cubs next week and knock the Cubbies down a bit. Barring a strange occurance, the Cards series will probably be a "must win" series anyway, so I'd prefer the Cubs to be in third when the Cards come to Miller Park. Then, as long as the Brewers are in first, or within a game of first, the Crew will have their work laid out right in front of them.

[BuckyTuba]

i don't know who has the best chance, but the brewers have the worst odds (lack of respect or they haven't been updated!)

 

NL CENTRAL

cubs: 2-5

brewers: 5-1

cardinals 3-2

 

i got $5 on the brewers.

[BuckyTuba]

ok, the odds were just updated:

 

cubs and cardinals stay the same, brewers changed to 1-1

[rluzinski]

Crew: 9 home, 13 away, .478 combined opponents winning %, 10 games vs. .500+ teams.

 

The Brewers have 23 games left. 10 home, 13 road.

 

I think the Brewers have an extremely easy schedule left. There's a decent chance that the Padres will have nothing to play for by the time they play the Brewers.

[BrewCityUnit]

There's a decent chance that the Padres will have nothing to play for by the time they play the Brewers.

 

How do you figure? I dont' see the west or wild card being settle until the last week of the season.

[LUKE232323]

Didn't see that the SD series was a 4 gamer. I still don't think it's an easier schedule than the Cubs', considering we play more quality opponents and the Cubs home/road splits are minimal and ours are drastic.

[BrewCityUnit]

I agree...I think we have a tougher schedule then teh CUbs. They are a .500 team on the road and we now how we play on the road. I think the Crew will step up though and take the divison.

 

I am hoping for a 3-3 road trip, (1-2 in Cincy and 2-1 in Pitt)

 

I think the Cubs will win 2 of 3 in Pitt and St. Louis will either get swept or lose 2 of 3 in Arizona. With 5 games next week between the Cubs and Cards, hopefully one team doesn't win more than 3 of those games.

[bennettbrewer]

The Brewers clearly have an advantage schedule-wise. While they certainly aren't good on the road, the only real decent team they have to face on the road the rest of the year is Atlanta. The Brewers two toughest series left are both at home, which is a big plus.

 

The Cards just have too many injuries, and as been already pointed out, their schedule flat out sucks.

Big plus, yes, but it's against the Padres...Cubs have the Reds on the road...it's going to come down to the wire and those match ups do not favor us.

 

[LUKE232323]

The Brewers clearly have an advantage schedule-wise. While they certainly aren't good on the road, the only real decent team they have to face on the road the rest of the year is Atlanta. The Brewers two toughest series left are both at home, which is a big plus.

 

The Cards just have too many injuries, and as been already pointed out, their schedule flat out sucks.

Why is this an advantage for us when the Cubs play only one decent team the rest of the year HOME OR ROAD?? We have 10 games vs. .500+ teams, Cubs have 5.

 

[SoCalBrewfan]

While it should matter to some extent, the records of opponents might make less a difference in a three week stretch than one thinks. The Brewers seem to have an annoying ability to play up or down to the level of their opponents, particularly the ones in the division. Plus teams can be very different in the last couple of weeks, as poor teams play rookies with something to play for over veterans playing out the string, and teams already in the playoffs let up considerably and rest their stars.

 

I think the Cubs might have it a little easier, but it's pretty close. It's gonna be interesting to see the race...there must be a decent chance statistically that one of the three has a perfectly-timed winning streak and coasts in, but I don't know which of these teams has the pitching lined up to do that. Milwaukee might be hot at just the right time, while the Cubs are regressing, but I don't trust those kind of trends to last.

[Ennder]

There's a decent chance that the Padres will have nothing to play for by the time they play the Brewers.

 

How do you figure? I dont' see the west or wild card being settle until the last week of the season.

 

All it takes is a mini winning streak by the padres and a .500 patch by the other 2 teams and those are meaningless games. Its not a given by any chance but its certianly plausible.

[patrickgpe]

latest playoff odds according to bp.com

 

brewers 56%

cubs 36 %

cards 8%

[crewcuts]

Hopefully by the time we play Atlanta they will be folding up their tee-pees. They have an outside shot at the wild card now, but they have a 3 game set against the Mets this week and may be done by the time we face them...San Diego is definitely the scary ending of this potential horror flick. Let's hope we can take care of business in Pittsburgh tonight.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Yeah, I was astonished to see the Brewers' odds up over 50%. Now it sounds like Duncan might be done for the season, so that 8% for St Louis might be a big over-estimate. While I've remained hopeful even through the bad times, I'm really surprised to see that the Crew is not only still in this, but should now be considered the favorite. Still many games to be played of course...playing well in PNC would go a long way toward convincing me, though (as though that matters...)