Corey Hart and Carlos Lee

[gregmag]

I apologize if someone has already brought this up; I don't remember seeing it.

 

Last year, when the Brewers were trying to figure out what to do with Carlos Lee, some of us who advocated trading Lee in the right deal promoted Corey Hart as Lee's replacement. Aside from the fact that the Brewers would have trouble meeting Lee's likely contract demands, we maintained that Hart's minor league projections actually provided a good reason to think Hart was Lee's equal as a player. Quite a few folks found this argument dubious, either because they didn't accept the veracity of minor league projections or because they just couldn't see Hart as Lee's equal.

 

Hart has now gotten enough playing time to make, I think, a fair comparison between him and Lee, and the Brewers-Astros series provides an occasion to make that comparison. As I write this, Lee has nine OBP points and 13 SLG points over Hart. By these basic metrics, the two are extremely similar, with a very slight edge to Lee (OPS+ puts it at 126 to 122).

 

How you flesh out the comparison depends on what precise questions you're asking. Lee certainly remains a more proven player than Hart, and he continues to hit with amazing consistency from year to year; on the other hand, Lee won't get better and will almost certainly start to decline soon, whereas Hart still has some room to grow. Hart's cheap as dirt, but Lee's a known commodity. Lee has driven in a lot more runs, but Hart has spent a lot of time in non-RBI positions in the lineup, and as a result he has scored more runs. Hart has hit well in the clutch, but Lee has hit better; but then no really good evidence suggests that clutch hitting is a sustainable skill. Lee has less of a platoon split, while Hart has just been okay against RHPs; how that cuts depends on whom you're facing.

 

For me, aside from all of the considerations above, Hart has some clear advantages that would make me take him over Lee. Hart plays very good defense, and he can play CF credibly. Lee is limited to LF, and he isn't very good there. In addition, the bottom has fallen out of Lee's speed game this year (though give him credit for keeping it up this long), while Hart is a serious threat on the bases. Finally, based on this year at least, Lee's home park is helping him substantially more than Hart's is helping him. Hart's home/away OPS splits (entering today) are .928/.801; Lee's are .995/.775.

 

I don't bring all this up to say "I told you so." Just for the record, I've been saying for months that Bob Shouse sucks, and that's typical; I don't know much. I'm making this point because I think it provides a pretty good example of why minor league projections for hitters really are valuable. They're subject to the usual rules of statistics -- you need a good-sized sample, and you need to adjust for a lot of variables. But if you use them right, minor league projections can help you see past some long shadows cast by familiarity. For a small market team that will always have to take intelligent risks, that's a huge help.

 

Greg.

[DHonks]

really, I thought we'd have been better off with Lee and Hart. I've been sold on Hart for about 2 years now (not before that though). With Lee, I've just always preferred his type of play to Jenkins'. And to be honest, I prefer a player like Hart over both of them.

[sbrylski]

Hart also has an sizeable advantage on the basepaths and in the field.

 

At this point in their careers, I'd take Hart regardless of their contract situation. Considering Hart is pre-arby, its a no-brainer.

[mothershipconnection]

It's probably a toss up if you don't factor in the money, or if you're a team who doesn't care at all. If I'm the Brewers, I clearly take Hart because of the huge financial savings and his age, while I'd take Lee if I were a win-now big market club because of the track record and predictability he brings.

[igor67]

I think without the money the baserunning and defense gives an edge to Hart. However I'm convinced that Carlos Lee is the rare true RBI player. Which is to say that his approach will net more RBI's then the average player. He does well getting those runners in from third by shortening up more I believe. This makes him a useful compliment. If I was a team in need of a stretch run bat I'd look to trade for him and slot him 5th. I don't know that this skill adds up to a huge difference over the course of the season, but I think it;s worth noting it as a skill.

[RyDogg66]

I remember a few regulars last year, namely Al (dadofandrew) saying that by replacing Hart with Lee we wouldnt be missing a beat. I tended to think he was right then, when you really looked at the numbers, and Corey has done nothing to prove him wrong this year. Lee=Hart - 15 million a year.

 

I love that last part.