Weeks and his "Potential"

[twobrewers]

While Rickie has played pretty well since his call up from AAA - it is still safe to say he has had a very disappointing year. Many on this board expected Rickie to someday become the kind of player who could hit 30HR and steal 30 Bases. This was suppose to be his break out year.

 

While looking through my media guide last night - I couldn't help but wonder why Rickie received so much hype as a young player.

 

He was the second over all pick in the 2003 draft.

 

2003: He bats .348 with 1HR in 63 at bats for Beloit.

 

2004: He bats .259 with 8HR in 479 at bats for Huntsville. He leads the league in doubles with 35. He steals 11 bases and is caught stealing 12 times. He strikes out 107 times, while walking 55.

 

2005: He bats .320 in 203 at bats for Nashville. He hits 12HR and 14 doubles. He steals 10 bases and is caught once. He strikes out 51, and walks 28.

 

2005: He is called up to Milwaukee. In 360 at bats he hits .239 with 13 HR and 13 doubles. He steals 15 bases/caught twice. He strikes out 96 times/walks 40

 

2006: He is in Milwaukee the entire year. He bats .279 with 359 at bats. He hits 8HR with 15 doubles. He steals 19 bases and is caught 5 times. He strikes out 90 times/walks 30.

 

I don't see any numbers that are particularly impressive. In 2005 for Nashville he played pretty well. He clearly struggled after being called up. And since 2005 - he has never really put up any kind of power numbers to speak of. His 2004 season in Huntsville was very poor. And this is even ignoring the fact that his defense was shaky all through the minor league.

 

Looking at Princes numbers in the minors - it was clear he was going to be a beast. The same can largely be said for Braun. (And for Laporta so far)

 

Lets also not forget, the Rickie was a collegiate player. He wasn't a 19 year old kid we draft (like Prince) who might take some time to get adjusted. Rickie was playing against high quality opponents in college already - but his numbers never really translated to the minor leagues.

 

So my question is - where did all of this hype for Rickie Weeks come from? Was it all based on his collegiate career? (NCAA best .473 batting average) Was it based on his high draft selection? (2nd overall) Was it based on scouting reports?

 

Or

 

Was out team just so bad back then that he was really our only prospect and thus received more hype that was justified? (Nelson Cruz and Wil Inman)

[naivin]

His collegiate career, which led to his being teh 2nd overall pick, is definitely a huge factor....probably the biggest single factor. His minor league career was also very short, so maybe tough to judge - just as the past two seasons have been hampered by injury, but between what he did in college, and jsut watching him play, I think the potential is easy to see. Can he put it all together? I think we will find out over the next 13 months.

[Ennder]

It's because he plays 2B. If Weeks was coming up as a 1B or 3B people wouldn't have made a huge deal about him, but a 2B that has a lot of potential is something else.

 

He was doing great in Milwaukee in 2005 until his thumb injury. He played hurt for much of 2006 and he played hurt for much of this season(this was expected too, the wrist was supposed to bother him this year). Thats pretty much why he hasn't looked as good as expected.

 

The 30 HR comments were mostly scouting based. There is still plenty of time for Weeks to end up being a great player, he just needs to get those wrists fully healthy.

[cruiserx43]

While it is good to use a collegiate career to displace minor league AB's, I think it is a little misleading to compare Southern University (I-AA) to say the caliber of AB's Ryan Braun received at Miami. While I am not belittling the great things Rickie did there he may have been rushed because 2nd base was a deficiency at the big league level at the time. Look how long it took for Bill Hall to get straightened out.

 

Not that it is a direct comparison but we have another player not unlike Rickie Weeks in Mike Goetz in Helena who won the batting crown while playing for UW-Milwaukee if I am not mistaken. Toolsey player who has plate discipline and speed, but not nearly touted because the level he played at. To say a player who excelled at a school with an enrollment of 9,000 in the SWAC conference gets the same AB's as someone in a power conference may be pushing it.

[twobrewers]

It's because he plays 2B. If Weeks was coming up as a 1B or 3B people wouldn't have made a huge deal about him, but a 2B that has a lot of potential is something else.

Good point. I guess it isn't really fair of me to compare him to Prince, Braun or even Laporta since Rickie isn't playing a "power" position. So while I still think his minor league career is underwhelming - for a 2B that might not be so bad.

[brettac1]

Not to mention the amazing wealth of tools he has. He can run, he has power, he has amazing bat speed, and he has a good eye at the plate. This stuff had every scouting director in baseball drooling over him, and for good reason. The hype that surrounded him was justified, in my opinion. Any team that had the second pick in the draft that year would have taken Weeks, and some might have taken him first (Delmon Young has been a pretty big disappointment himself, and he's healthy).

[SoCalBrewfan]

I don't see any numbers that are particularly impressive.

If you are not impressed by the .320 / .435 / .655 in AAA I really don't know what to say.

[twobrewers]

If you are not impressed by the .320 / .435 / .655 in AAA I really don't know what to say.

Only 203 at bats though. He had 479 in AA the year before that weren't very good at all. Since we have had him he never put together a full year of great play.

[brettac1]

Huntsville's not an easy place to hit, though. And that was his first full season of pro ball and he was in AA, for him to hit even as well as he did was an accomplishment. The leap from college to AA is enormous.

[flosses like fossas]

it's especially tough - probably outright magnifying - to be objective about watching rickie struggle with other young big names putting up. with braun and fielder and even the young arms starting to come to form it does make you wonder. i hope weeks gets it straightened out (a la billy hall last year), and i agree that his potential and tools are undeniable, but i can't shake a skeptical feeling i've got about him.

[whizkid]

63 ABs in low A, then right to AA the next year. The Southern League is a pitchers league, Prince didn't put up monster numbers like his AAA numbers either. The hitting tools part was the quick hands/strong wrists thing primarily and now he's had thumb, then wrist problems. 203 ABs is all he got in AAA, he can't help that. http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif

[crewcrazy]

I think it's safe to say every prospect struggles a little at one level or another...it's extremely rare for anyone to just plow through the minor league system like it's nothing (didn't Ken Griffey Jr. surge through the Seattle system in like a month?). Even Ryan Braun OPS'd .778 in Brevard County.

[TooLiveBrew]

Plus don't forget Rickie is the ultimate 'I'll never tell anyone that I'm hurting' player who had been suffering through the post-op scar tissue break-up for the vast majority of the 2007 season. Once he was sent down, the docs took a look, and mentioned that it was still breaking apart. Even just that little bit of extra time spent in AAA - where the wrist cleared up a bit more - was enough to get Rickie up to the red-hot level at which he's hitting now. And kudos to Rickie for turning what was once a weakness (his glovework) into an asset for the Brewers.

[Mr QL]

I still believe in Rickie. Like the poster above said, he's still hurting right now and that's why he's struggled. Hopefully he'll be fully healthy next season and break out.

[Baldkin]

The one thing that made me realize Rickie was for real was his shot into Big Macland at old Busch stadium....

 

Anyone have the video?

[RU Rah Rah]

If you look at his page at Baseball-reference.com, among those listed as "similar batters through age 23" are Craig Biggio and Barry Larkin. Of course, there are some duds in there, too (Ted Lepcio?).