Is 5 years long enough to turn a franchise around?

[logan82]

I didn't want to hijack the "What is the Owner doing right about now?" thread so I am starting this one. This is not about wether Yost or Melvin should be fired. I am just wondering what other people's opinions are on how long it should take to build a team. If I am way off base, so be it. This is just something I have been thinking about to somewhat take my mind off the Brewers' poor play.

How long should it take a GM to turn a team into a perennial playoff contender given the following conditions...
1. Depleted Minor league system. You have one of the worst minor league systems in the Majors. No potential All-Star players.
2. 2-3 quality or star players on the MLB club
3. Very little money to sign free agents. You only have enough money to sign one or two 2nd tier free agents.
Given these conditions I would say at least 6-7 years to go from a perennial 90 loss doormat to a yearly division champion contender.

You have to figure the first year is a wash. It isn't like the NBA or NFL where you get to draft and have 1-2 of those players has an immediate impact. You don't get to draft for almost half the season so all you can do is dangle your stars for advanced AAA players or swap one star for a couple middle of the road MLB players. Your first draft won't even come in to effect until almost your 3rd season as GM in the best case scenario. I would figure 2-3 drafts before you even see much of an impact at the MLB level so you are looking at your 4th or 5th season before you even see much for results. Of course there are always nuggets to be had in the rule 5 draft, but those aren't usually going to be MLB stars. I know there are some, but I would guess they are a small percentage of players. So by my largely crude estimation in the 5th year as a GM you should see a competitive, but not great team. Even with a large amount of luck it would take about 6 years to be competing for division.

Most of my opinions on this are based off figuring a drafted player wouldn't become a steady MLB contributer untill 4 years after they are drafted. Two full years in the minors and finally becoming a solid everyday contributer in thier 2nd year in the majors. I know I have no stats to back any of this up and most can be refuted, but I was just wondering about other people's opinions.