Can the Brewers break a record for blowing big leads?

[rotoherb]

I haven't seen anyone mention this yet, but Nate Silver at BaseballProspectus.com wrote a blog post earlier today about teams blowing a three or more run lead. I know this will shock everyone, but the Brewers have done this more than any team in the league this year. It was at 13 times earlier today when he wrote the blog, but is now at 14 after tonight's game. The Brewers have actually pulled off this trick 10 times now since July 28th. Just stop and think about that for a second. Ten times in the last 28 games the Brewers have led by three or more runs and lost. During that time they are 3-10 in games in which they had a three run or more lead during that game, just a .231 win percentag in those situations. Astounding.

 

They still have a ways to go before they reach the single season record (going back to 1959), which is 20 blown leads of 3 runs or more, and the team record is 16 by the 1973 team, but considering that they've done it three times in just the last four games, they may have a shot. It's an interesting read if you've got a second.

 

Brewers Blowing It

 

 

(added tag; added text to link --1992)

[hart attack 2006]

I like the chances of reaching 20. Unfortunately these are the type of records that the Crew has been setting...when was the last time the team set a record that didn't involve batters striking out or the team collapsing in the 2nd half?http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/frown.gif

[logan82]

I like the chances of reaching 20. Unfortunately these are the type of records that the Crew has been setting...when was the last time the team set a record that didn't involve batters striking out or the team collapsing in the 2nd half?http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/frown.gif

 

Last year they tied a record for the most HRs in an inning. They won the game 11-0. Of course they lost the next game 0-11.

[1992casey]

We actually did have this topic 'kinda' brought up a few days ago, but the thread didn't really go anywhere. Since this one has more information, I've locked the old one. For background purposes:

 

Anyone know how to find the major league record for blown 5-run leads?

[brewcrew00]

So once again, it boils down to PITCHING. Not managing, not offense but pitching (and defense). Can't throw the ball, can't win games, it's a pretty basic principle.

[AJAY]

Can the Brewers break a record for blowing big leads?

 

Forget about big leads. The Brewers are probably going to break the record for just blowing in general.

[thablingster]

We have blown 10 leads of 3 runs or more in our last 28 games. That is pathetic. At least this article makes me feel a little better for thinking it has been happening way too much... because it has. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[davego]

10 times in the last month...that is truly insane. Like Powerball odds to do that.

[rluzinski]

The Brewers have no real chance of beating the record. 31 games left and they'll be lucky to have a 3 run lead in a third of them. And even if they did, they'd have to go 3-7 in them. I know they just got done with a worse streak but we are talking about it simply because of how unlikely it is.

 

The funny thing is, it's not like the bullpen is that bad. It's just that every little thing that could go wrong has. Stupid errors, broken bat flares... anything you can think of. Remember some of the luck that contributed to that 24-10 start? It's been used up and then some.

[davego]

Luck is a residue...

[rluzinski]

Luck is a residue...

So, what is your explanation? The Brewers were exploding with talent during their 24-10 start but now they are by far the worst team in the league? To suggest that their talent level justifies blowing all these big leads hard to imagine. I won't pretend they are playing well but luck plays a part, a huge part. ANy time a team is doing insanely good or bad, any team, luck is playing a role.

[Crewin06]

Luck is a residue...

 

So, what is your explanation? The Brewers were exploding with talent during their 24-10 start but now they are by far the worst team in the league? To suggest that their talent level justifies blowing all these big leads hard to imagine. I won't pretend they are playing well but luck plays a part, a huge part. ANy time a team is doing insanely good or bad, any team, luck is playing a role.

Luck does not justify 4 of our 5 starters having an ERA over 5.3 over that 28 day period or 3 of our 5 starters haing an ERA over 8 over that 28 day period.

 

There is a simple reason for it. Our Starting pitching went in the crappers along with our middle relievers.

 

With the way Bush, Capuano, Gallardo, Wise, Vargas, Linebrink have pitched over the last month I could see this record falling.

 

OK maybe I am just bitter about last night's loss but this is getting rediculous.

[davego]

Rulz, I'll not pretend to have more of a command of the game then you do. However, I will argue that over 162 games luck is going to wash out in the end. Sort of what draws me to baseball. There are lucky streaks and poor streaks, but the season is long enough that the good teams usually (not always) but usually rise to the top in the end. It can be like the sox in '05 where guys had career years. I'm not sure if that made them just lucky that season or average guys who for whatever reason just played a bit better then their norm.

 

I guess I have hung around enough (like almost anyone here) to see that this is sort of what happens to teams that are average. I'm not saying that the 'Crew has a bunch of average guys long-term, but at least in this season that might be what they are. Mediocre teams will play well, then not. Guess they have the highs and the lows that equal out to that mushy middle.

 

It is hard to quantify luck, so maybe that is why I discount it more then I should.

[Ennder]

I will argue that over 162 games luck is going to wash out in the end

 

That isn't anywhere close to true, especially when talking individual players but its not true for individual teams either.

 

Luck is probably a bad word for it though. I play poker and it takes a 10,000 hand sample for me to even care about my statistics, it takes a very long time to take luck out of an equation with a lot of variables.

[sheethead]

The Brewers have no real chance of beating the record. 31 games left and they'll be lucky to have a 3 run lead in a third of them. And even if they did, they'd have to go 3-7 in them. I know they just got done with a worse streak but we are talking about it simply because of how unlikely it is.

 

The funny thing is, it's not like the bullpen is that bad. It's just that every little thing that could go wrong has. Stupid errors, broken bat flares... anything you can think of. Remember some of the luck that contributed to that 24-10 start? It's been used up and then some.

 

How about one in a million? I would say unlikely, but anyone watching this team since the break can say there is a real chance. Just the odds still aren't that good yet. If they blow another 3 leads in the next week, then those odds get so much better.

[rluzinski]

Rulz, I'll not pretend to have more of a command of the game then you do. However, I will argue that over 162 games luck is going to wash out in the end. Sort of what draws me to baseball. There are lucky streaks and poor streaks, but the season is long enough that the good teams usually (not always) but usually rise to the top in the end. It can be like the sox in '05 where guys had career years. I'm not sure if that made them just lucky that season or average guys who for whatever reason just played a bit better then their norm.

 

I am nothing close to a baseball expert (which is why I come here to get so much information) but with regard to the variablity in player performance from AB to AB and game by game, I feel I have a decent handle on the situation. I don't think luck always balances out but my point was that for any team to blow all those big leads in such a short period, luck HAD to play somewhat of a role. That includes all our mediocre starting pitchers compiling stats for a month like they shouldn't even be in the league. I don't blame it all on luck, of course but dramatic shifts in performance is generally a sign of two things, injury and/or luck.

 

I know people hate the term luck but there's nothing else to call it. For instance, sometimes, errors happen when they have no bearing on the game and sometimes they decide it. Once in awhile, every error a team gets decides the game for a string of games. Fans generally call it choking or whatever but it also could just be dumb luck. An error might happen every 20 balls in play but sometimes they just fall at bad times. It's inevitable. Of course, that doesn't mean that the Brewers don't help their misfortune along by being a bad defensive team to begin with.

 

Over the season, I'd say that the Brewer's record is very close to where it should be, though. Had the Brewers simply played .500 after their nice start, they would have easily been on the winning end of the luck stick. A team like the D-Backs probably has benefited from things going their way as well. The Yankees played well below their talent level for a big part of the season.