BP on Zduriencik

[battlekow]

Bryan Smith is writing a series of articles about the drafting tendencies of MLB scouting directors, and today he evaluated the NL Central (subscription required). This is what he had to say about Jack Zduriencik:

Quote:

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Best Player Produced: Prince Fielder (1st round, 2002)

Best Prospect in Minors: Yovani Gallardo (2nd round, 2004)

Notable Steals: Corey Hart (11th round, 2000), Dan Kolb (24th round, 2001), Dana Eveland (16th round, 2002), Lorenzo Cain (17th round, 2004)

Five-Round Strategy: 33 total picks. 51.5% high school, 36.4% college, 9.1% junior college, 3% Latin.

Strategy in a Nutshell: Zduriencik is one of the best scouting directors in baseball, but also one whose reputation has been aided by having high selections every year. That promises to change in 2008, but this season, he's got another top ten pick to make. Finding a trend in Zduriencik's picks is difficult; he's basically a "best player available" type. He likes big velocities, he likes big power, and he likes up-the-middle players.

2007 Draft Crystal Ball: The Brewers will have to make the seventh overall selection count, because after that they'll wait 95 picks to strike again. The draft is set up to give Zduriencik his choice of pitcher, from Ross Detwiler to Jarrod Parker to Phillipe Aumont. Given the Brewers' success this season and presumably for the foreseeable future, even a quick-mover like Daniel Moskos makes sense in this slot.

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No criticism of the high school pitcher fetish, and he mixed up the Dan Kolbs.

[Brian the Automator]

I don't think DFE's should count as steals. That's really just a crap shoot and an organization who's willing to throw down money on a gamble.

[JoeHova]

God, if they have to take a pitcher for some reason, I hope they don't take a guy based on who will move fastest. Look how that worked out with the Pirates taking Brian Bullington #1 in 2002. That's how you pass on guys that might become legends.

[Mass Haas]

Dan Kolb (24th round, 2001)

 

Jim Callis of Baseball America made the same mistake a couple of weeks ago. That Dan Kolb was floundering in the Brewers' system, coming off two middling-to-poor seasons in High Desert (one as a starter, one as a reliever), when the Nationals made him a surprise pick in the December '04 minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft.

 

Give Kolb credit, however, he's hung in there, and was recently promoted to AAA for the first time, and is pitching at Columbus for the Nationals. He'll turn 27 next week.

 

The "other" Kolb is over five years older, and to be honest, that kind of mistake should have been caught by both BA and BP.

[UWRyan428]

One statement would have sufficed for the guy: Best Player Available, no matter need. That's why this year's draft excites me. All the talk that this year, we may break the mold and go with a college reliever who moves fast is like saying Jack Z was going to take a high OBP machine after reading "Moneyball." I like Aumont, though.

[DHonks]

we may break the mold and go with a college reliever who moves fast

 

That'd be rather foolish, since we have decent relief prospects in AA or AAA named Capellan, Sarfate, Thatcher, Dillard, Hammond, Parra (maybe), etc.

 

Best player available would be someone that is best for the longterm future of the team, not someone with a low ceiling

[UWRyan428]

That's exactly what I'm saying. Jack Z. doesn't get caught up in the latest trends. He is far from a fashionista. He is a Man for All Seasons. He is....Canadian.

[colbyjack]

Just for the record, Jack Z. isn't Canadian.

 

And to what do you refer to when you say there has been a lot of talk that the team should draft a reliever? We talked about whether or not the team should consider it on the draft forum a few months ago, but that topic was started just for the sake of conversation. Is there a strong push from others for the team to draft a reliever? I'm not sure if this is a popular subject or not on the IGT's.

[endaround]

Heard the Dlist talking about the draft today, but Needles said he wanted another hitter. Also that Hart should be traded for a starting pitcher (?)

[Trowekamp]

It really annoys me now that I have read multiple articles saying the reason for the Brewers success is high draft picks.

 

Last time I looked they drafted high pretty much every year in the last 2 decades and very few have worked out until Jack Z. Antone Williamson anyone?

 

Plus people talk about the Braun pick as no-brainer but there were a lot of questions on him being picked there.

 

The only high pick in hindsight you can question I think is Mike Jones who never has looked dominant even before he was injured. At least Rogers has shown what he is capable of IF healthy and consistent. If you took the top 3 rounds over the years the Jack Z has run the draft and compare his % of hits I am sure it is highest in the majors over that time.

[colbyjack]

I agree Trowekamp, you have to hit on your first round picks. While I don't like the term "crap-shoot" in relationship to the draft, teams that make good selections, no matter where they pick, are a lot more successful than teams that just have had a lot of early picks.

 

However, I disagree with your assessment that Mike Jones was never dominant. He was plenty dominant in the Pioneer League, was solid as a rock in Beloit, and even had a lot of success in Huntsville before the bad rash of injuries hit. You just don't see too many pitchers that young dominate games with their fastballs as Jones did.

 

I would argue that Rogers hasn't shown what he is capable of when healthy. He had a string of three starts last year in West Virginia that at this point in time seems like more of a tease of his potential than anything else. We all know he has the talent, now it's a matter of him putting it together, hoping and praying that he returns fully healthy with no further setbacks.

[Never Outhustled]

I don't think DFE's should count as steals. That's really just a crap shoot and an organization who's willing to throw down money on a gamble.

 

I agree DFEs shouldn't count, but I disagree there a gamble. The DFE process is designed to take away the gamble. You get to follow the player a full season longer, and then make an informed signing. I don't think they should count as steals because many DFEs aren't players who aren't highly thought of, there just more difficult signs.

 

The DFE process has allowed the Brewers to be very efficient with there money. They sign fewer players originally, then sign the most desireable after the DFE process.

[Brian the Automator]

[ The DFE process is designed to take away the gamble. You get to follow the player a full season longer, and then make an informed signing. I don't think they should count as steals because many DFEs aren't players who aren't highly thought of, there just more difficult signs. ]

 

What I meant is that it's a crap shoot as to which DFE is going to crank it up, and which one's going to be a stinker and not worth drafting.

[dadofandrew]

Are DFE's completely gone now? What's the deadline for signing a player in the June 2007 draft?

[colbyjack]

This year's DFE class (the DFEs drafting in 2006) is the last one. They have until Wednesday at midnight (I think), a week before this year's draft, to sign.

 

The signing deadline moving forward is August 15th.

 

I just want to comment a little bit on the DFE process given the comments above. A lot of time and energy is spent before the draft to try and determine who the draft and follow candidates will be (or were). And a lot of players received the in-home visits just like other draft-eligible candidates, but the conversations talked a lot more about how the players would benefit from going the JC route and being eligible for a potentially big pay-day one year later, as opposed to waiting 3 years if they went to a 4-year college.

 

For instance, the Brewers convinced both Chad Robinson and Lee Haydel to go to CC of Southern Nevada and Delgado CC as opposed to their college commitments of UNLV and LSU. The Brewers did their homework beforehand to determine whether or not either player would consider such a route, and played a big part to make sure they still retained both players' signing rights.

 

Other players like Nick Tyson and Rob Bryson may not have been as mainstream of prospects, but that doesn't mean the team was any less excited about what they could do a year from being drafted, and it also doesn't mean they were lesser prospects to the point that they didn't have their own commitments to 4-year schools to contend with.

 

I just wanted to expand on that since a few comments made it sound as though the team just took a stab in the dark on a few players, and in a few instances it has worked. Rarely are such fortunes a surprise, as there is almost always an educated opinion and process that is involved, and the scouting department deserves a heck of a lot of credit for putting the time and effort into the DFE process to reap the rewards.