Peaking At The Right Time

[TauPentaRei]

It's all I have left. Really. And I am reaching to have something to hold onto.

 

I was a very loud drum banger at the 3/4 mark of the season. There are 41 games left! Rah Rah Rah!

 

Well here we are at the 4/5 mark. 20% left...

 

Cue 'Full House' music with Bob Saget life lesson: So I was running a 10K yesterday... only the markers were labeled in miles. I was coming up to mile marker #5, doing the grandma mall walking shuffle - dragging hard core third leg of the Tri, walking through aid stations, dumping water on my head, cursing my wretched existence, wishing I was home guzzling suds, then I saw my wife and her friend, they cheered, i was lifted* like i never knew possible... 1.2 miles left, HEYwhaddya know... 20%!. my legs worked again, finding my stride galloped... turned the corner the music the home stretch the finish line! Or conversely, for a college english class i showed up every day, read every book, wrote every paper, contributed to discussions... and decided not to take the final exam worth 20% of the grade; I got a 'B' and I was ok with that.

 

Crikey... at this point Harang and Arroyo could carry the Reds to a 24 - 8 finish and take the banner with 84 wins. Some Cinderella pops out of the woodwork... some ugly old hag draped in rags gets a visit from the fairy godmother (sheets? seems appropriate, huh?) and off to the Ball. Peak at the right time.

 

I will be at Wrigley tomorrow. I am stoked. I promise I will go on Wednesday if we win game #1... How could I not show up for the sweep Thursday then also? Last August I posted a big picture of Wendy Selig's mug "reverse Major League penant race style"... every win covered up a section of the vile visage. I am thinking of the same concept here... anyone think a 20-12 finish is possible? I do. Peak at the right time... some quality .500 road ball, a hearty 7 game winning streak... you know, before we turn back into a pumpkin.

 

 

*need to quit the Boo-ing Milwaukee.

[Ennder]

We had a great first 20% of the season, lousy second 20%, great third 20%, lousy fourth 20%... if the pattern holds we make the playoffs.

Of course the first lousy 20% was against good teams and the second lousy 20% was against scrub teams so my optimism is down a bit.

Breaking the season into actually fifths lets take a look:

1-32 - 22-10 (12 games over)

33-64 - 12-20 (8 games under)

65-96 - 20-12 (8 games over)

97-128 - 11-21 (10 games under)

129-130 - 0-2 (2 games under)

131-162 - ????

Which team are we to finish the year? I wish I knew.

[rluzinski]

The Brewers have put themselves in a position where luck has a good chance of deciding their fate. A true .500 could easily finish 19-13 or 13-19, depending on how a few balls bounce. It's a shame the season has come to this but it's certainly a better situation than in year's past.

[dadofandrew]

Any team that wins 5 in a row, or even 10 of 14, might waltz away with the Central. That could be anyone.

[SeriesFinale]

TauPentaRei wrote:

*need to quit the Boo-ing Milwaukee.

Yeah, normally I subscribe to the old adage that we're fans, not cheerleaders, but I'm with you here.

 

Yesterday I was in the tunnel watching the Brewers walk from the dugout to the clubhouse right after the game and I shouted some stuff at them I regret now. Nothing truly harsh ("Come on guys!," "We need you, Ben"... stuff like that) but nothing that was ultimately helpful in the slightest and it didn't even come close to making me feel better. If anything, I felt like an idiot.

 

I really hope the fans in Milwaukee are as quick to cheer as it seems they've been to boo. Now is when the team needs support.

[Ennder]

Here are the 1/5 splits for the other .500ish teams.

 

Cubs

 

1/5 - 16-16

2/5 - 13-19

3/5 - 22-10

4/5 - 15-18

 

The Cubs have been a good bit more consistent than we have. They have only had one good fifth to their season but haven't had the lows that we have either.

 

Cardinals

 

1/5 - 14-18

2/5 - 14-18

3/5 - 17-15

4/5 - 22-13

 

The cardinals pattern scares me much more than the Cubs. This looks like a team that got off to a bad start and has come on stronger and stronger which can also be supported by players from the minors and who they picked up in deals. Unless we get swept by the Cubs I'm still as worried about STL as I am by Chi.

 

Braves

 

1/5 - 20-12

2/5 - 15-17

3/5 - 16-16

4/5 - 16-19

 

Braves are living on a good first 20% of the season even more than we are, they haven't had an over .500 fifth since the first one. However they don't have those huge valleys that we have.

 

I don't know if its because of Yost or from being a young team or what but it just seems like the Brewers are incapable of playing consistent ball and its held true for a few years now. We have very strong peaks but very big valleys as well, much more than most teams seem to.