Melvin's Tenure

[moofnelson]

Melvin has been with the Brewers almost 5 years now. In that span this team is 65 games under .500. I know this franchise was probably the worst franchise in baseball when he got there, but is five years not enough time to expect results? I'm not calling for Melvin to be replaced and I don't expect him to be fired, but I'd like to find out what reasonable expectations should be for this franchise after nearly 5 years with Melvin as GM.

 

Also, has his biggest mistake so far been the hiring of Ned Yost?

 

 

(consolidated tag --1992)

[pebadger]

Considering that the Brewers front office was nearly on par with that of the Clippers in terms of being on of the worst run organizations in all of sports prior to Melvin coming on board, I'm not ready to pile on Melvin yet. Rebuilding what had become a very poor minor league system (after being one of the best in the 80s) buys Melvin a lot of credit in my book, as that is not an easy process in ANY time frame.

 

Even with a small amout of revenue sharing, it's tough to be GM in Milwaukee or Minnesota or Pittsburgh. I have no trouble in playing your hand for the future right now, and taking minor risks (like the linebrink deal) when warranted, which is what I think Melvin is doing.

[Ennder]

No five years are not enough and you are looking at the wrong thing for judging the results in the first place. This entire franchise has seen a complete turnaround from top to bottom. Five years ago our major league roster was a complete joke and our minor league system was considered pretty weak overall.

 

On the other hand Melvin built a good team in Texas but wasn't able to get them over the playoff hump either. I was much more impressed with his rebuilding trades than I am with his more recent moves. The Suppan deal was pretty obviously for too much money, the Linebrink deal was just ok at best and thats with me not being high on Inman. Most of his deals involving vets have been kind of shaky.

[Fike85]

I'm not sure the Brewers have gotten any better since the end of 2005. Consider:

Batting:

2005: .259/.331/.423, 104 OPS+
2007: .263/.327 /452. 107 OPS+

Pitching:

2005: 3.97 ERA, 106 ERA +
2007: 4.58 ERA, 96 ERA+

Right now the Brewers have the feel of a car stuck on ice...the wheels are spinning but the car isn't moving anywhere. Though I believe that Bush (102), Estrada (87), Suppan (100), Gross (97), and Vargas (91) (career ERA/OPS+ in parenthesis) were nice additions, they clearly are not the players to bring the Brewers to another level. We need another ace-type starter (Gallardo?, Villanueva?, Parra?) and an OBP machine or two if we really want to contend.

[paul253]

i think melvin has done a pretty good job of turning the franchise around. some of the trades he's made have been steals and hes done a good job at finding cheap production players. I think the Suppan signing is going to end up being his worst move, although at the time it seemed like a pretty good haul (i just didnt like the 4 year aspect of it). I think this offseason will be key. Most of the pieces are in place for a winner. Melvin really needs to go find an everyday left fielder who can bat 3rd or 5th and he needs to improve the bullpen drastically. I am torn as to whether to sign Linebrink and Cordero because we could really, really use them, but we could also really use the 4 extra draft picks to re-energize our farm system. I also think Yost needs to be replaced by a veteran manager who has won before. If we aren't winning by next season with the likes of Fielder, Braun, Hardy, Sheets, Gallardo, Parra, Hart, Hall and Weeks, then something needs to be done.

[DuWayne Steurer]

While I think Melvin has put a good number of the pieces on the board that are required to put a winning team on the field, I hear the word "genius" used more than a little bit when referring to Melvin's roster building skills here in Milwaukee. Having not yet had a winning record in his 5 year tenure, I think calling him a genius might be premature. I'll grant that the cupboard was pretty bare when he got here, and he had a lot of work to do right out of the gate, but some of his trades and signings are still to young to really even fully evaluate. I think the next 2 years (08 and 09) will tell the story of what Melvin's done here. If they're still on the wrong side of the .500 ledger at that point, then I'd suspect he'd be in a small spot of hot water.

 

I think, like most, that we're set up pretty well for a decent 3-4 year run at playoff contention, but thinking it could happen and having it actually happen are of course, 2 different things.

[Ennder]

Batting:

 

2005: .259/.331/.423, 104 OPS+

2007: .263/.327 /452. 107 OPS+

 

Pitching:

 

2005: 3.97 ERA, 106 ERA +

2007: 4.58 ERA, 96 ERA+

 

From a hitting standpoint I think we have had a pretty big upgrade. You have to keep in mind the 2005 lineup was largely a veteran bunch while the 2007 lineup is mostly kids who are in theory going to improve over the next couple years. The 2005 lineup also had a number of guys put up better than normal years and really nobody slumped that season.

 

From a pitching standpoint I'd prefer to look at something other than ERA.

 

2005 - .251/.324/.408/.732 wtih a .289 BABIP

2007 - .269/.332/.426/.758 with a .310 BABIP

 

The pitching hasn't improved at all but I don't think its really worse either. The biggest difference there is in BABIP which is probably a combination of luck and bad fielding. This team is almost certainly a downgrade in fielding from what we had out there in 2005. The young pitchers are going to start making more of their mark next year when I assume at least two of CV, Gallardo, Parra are in the rotation.

 

The team has put up about the same stats while getting younger across the board with much more potential overall. I think next year you'll see another jump in hitting and pitching and depending on off season moves I see this team as being an 85ish win team next season. This year I had them pegged right at 82 and I think this team has probably as many ior more underachievers than overachievers.

[naivin]

So far so good with Melvin, but the results of next season will be the test, relative to how he makes the team better. The excuses are going to ring rather hollow after this year. People can blame Yost all they want, and he certainly burdens his share, but its Melvin who assembled the current group of starting pitchers that we run out there every night. Losing your Number 1 to the DL is a big blow for any team, but this situation goes well beyond being without Sheets. He has done a agreat job building. Next year we will see if he is the GM to get them to take the next step.

 

I do have to say that the Linebrink deal is looking pretty bad right now.

[pebadger]

If you're a team like Milwaukee, assembling a great pitching staff is a lot less under the GM's control than it is somewhere where pitching can just be bought. It's really a matter of catching lightning in a bottle in a lot of ways. Sometimes it's simply a matter of a few guys all getting hot at once. All things considered, I think most people thought the starting pitching was a strength going into the year, with lots of help getting ready in the minors.

 

I think the number one thing a GM in Milwaukee can do is make the minor league system the best it can be. It's the only route to sustained success for a team that just can't buy pieces every year. The other component is simply not being wrong in veteran dealings, which is a hell of a burden to bear when other teams can literally afford to be wrong sometimes.

[jlau20]

I think Melvin has done a fine job so far, and I agree with the point that '08 and '09 will be most telling in what he has accomplished. In my opinion, anything this year was going to be gravy as I thought and still think '08 will be our first season where we can be truly disappointed if they aren't in playoff contention nearing the end of the season. He's taken an atrocious Major League roster from when he got here and turned it into a core of guys he had a hand in drafting. Let's not forget, they are still in their early 20's, and relatively speaking didn't spend all that much time in the Minors, so the learning curve extended into the Majors.

 

As for signings, I think the Suppan deal will prove to be his worst. At the time I think alot, if not most, people liked it just because alot of people only really heard of him from the postseason last year. Another part of me says it was a signing that was made just to be made, for some reason we had to pick up someone with a "big name," even though he was only really a big name because he played a big part in the Cardinals postseason. The Hall signing makes me somewhat nervous...I can't say it was a bad thing to do to lock him up for 4yr/24mil, after the year he had last year. If Doug felt Hall could produce 35hr/85rbi every year, I would say we got a bargain based on what Doug was hoping for. I do think Billy will have a much better '08 than '07, but if I had to guess I would say 25hr/70-80rbi/.275ish, in which case I still think we got a good deal on Hall based on the going rate.

 

My guess would be Doug will be around atleast through '09.

 

I think the number one thing a GM in Milwaukee can do is make the minor league system the best it can be. It's the only route to sustained success for a team that just can't buy pieces every year. The other component is simply not being wrong in veteran dealings, which is a hell of a burden to bear when other teams can literally afford to be wrong sometimes.

 

Exactly, even if it means a few years of decent seasons then losing guys, then doing it all over again, it pretty much is the only way it can work.