8/26/07 Brewers (Bush) at Giants (Lincecum): 3:05 PM CDT

[thablingster]

I think the funny thing is that most Cub fans that I've seen are even more down on their team than we are with ours. Check out the in-game thread on NorthsideBaseball for their game this afternoon...it's even more depressing than some of our game threads recently. I think both fanbases are bracing for the absolutely worst and are only staying sane based on the fact that the other team in the race is just as bad as they are.

LOL, they do pretty much sound like our IGT's recently. They even hate Ryan Braun about as much as I hate Aramis Ramirez.

 

[rluzinski]

Yes, I know he's had some success in those late-inning situations in the past, but what Dave Bush did in 2005 really doesn't seem to matter much.

 

It matters less but it certainly matters. The problem is that, people focus so much on the most recent stats, they generally end up with such a small sample that it's hard to extract much from them. Over the course of a season, fans will come up with half a dozen, often contradictory generalization about a team or it's players and they are always based on hopefully small samples. Hall is clutch, Hall isn't clutch. Jenkins can't hit lefties... but he did for one year so he can... opps... he can't again. Bush is good for 7 innings.. but now he should never be allowed to pitch more than 5 innings, no matter what the circumstances are. The Brewers just "know how to win" and play the game right... but now they are losers and just don't want it enough.

 

If all those observations are correct, then players and teams change so quickly that you shouldn't make in game decisions on them anyway, since they have no predictive value. I'd rather just use all the information I have about a particular player or team to make my best guess at the future.

[TooLiveBrew]

True, but it's foolish to ignore that Dave Bush in 2007 has been different. This was a situation in which the move to the bullpen was painfully obvious, esp. given the batting order & aquisition of Linebrink - supposedly precisely for situations such as this.

[rluzinski]

That's exactly it... in a small sample, Bush has been different. That's descriptive, not predictive. If you've picked up something beyond the stats that tell you something has changed, share it. If you are only basing your opinion on stats, you are abusing the stats. And I'm not saying it's silly to think Linebrink was a better option that Bush in the 7th. That's a reasonable position. I just question the company line that Bush should be expected to fall apart after 5 innings.

 

Every year, fans pick up some short term trends and then state it as fact for the rest of the year. They'll be all new ones for next year, I guarantee it.

[TooLiveBrew]

And I'm not saying it's silly to think Linebrink was a better option that Bush in the 7th. That's a reasonable position. I just question the company line that Bush should be expected to fall apart after 5 innings.

Rluz, I never said that. Nowhere do I 'fall in line.' You accuse of "stat abuse," I'd argue that ignoring Bush's tendency this year, once tired, to leave pitches over the plate (as darn near every pitcher does when tired), is ignoring the reality of leaving pitchers in too long - which is clearly what happened (yet again) today. You can call me uninformed, but I can't tell you any scenario - short of every RH reliever being unavailable - in which leaving Bush in was the correct move.

 

I don't say this to be a jerk, just that Yost has chosen time & time again to leave his pitchers in once they are clearly physically fatigued, which has resulted in numerous 'meltdowns' by our starters this year. I don't disagree that Bush is a fine pitcher (I love the guy), but the question to me is not about Bush - it's about Yost's judgment of his starting pitcher's ability to record outs. What's wrong with a 6 IP, 2 ER performance? Linebrink is supposedly here exactly for situations such as today's game.

 

EDIT: In short, there's nothing "small sample" about a pitcher being too tired to make his pitches. Bush showed that in the 6th, yet he fought his way through. He had no business being back out there in the 7th - even Bushie himself kept looking back into the dugout

[TooLiveBrew]

Every year, fans pick up some short term trends and then state it as fact for the rest of the year. They'll be all new ones for next year, I guarantee it.

I don't want to bait or instigate here, but why do you feel the need to post this? To feel superior? Yes, you have stats from more than one year whereby to examine/judge a player. But those stats simply aren't the case this year - and I don't think that's "stat abuse", I think it's reality. Perhaps Bush's tendency to not be able to work as deep into games this year comes from the NL opponents being familiar with him now (which is where I put my money), and him having to work harder (throw more pitches) to get through innings. I don't blame a tired Dave Bush for making a couple mistakes, but I do blame the manager for not removing him once he was showing serious and obvious signs of fatigue. Bush has shown a strong ability to work through 6 or so innings (sometimes less, sometimes more) while still remaining sharp. But whatever inning it is, once he's fatigued, he does indeed have the tendency to give up runs (as I imagine most pitchers do)

 

[SeriesFinale]

That Hart play that scored the winning run looked even worse and more bizarre in person...I really think that one thing we can take solace from the game is that they have now officially lost games in every way possible.

 

I feel even worse since Corey seemed really good natured about the "Sunglasses at Night" the Giants' staff uncleverly played constantly this weekend, doing the "robot swing," etc and he never seems to give into ego or give less than 100%.

[Fatter than Joey]

Braun might have some competition for ROY after all.

 

I think Chris Young was a rookie last year -- that said, he is really developing into a weapon for AZ -- If the kid took more walks, he would be lethal with his basestealing abilities.