kenny lofton: hall of famer, right?

[flosses like fossas]

as i'm tinkering with my fantasy teams i happened to pick up kenny lofton in a 14-team league, and snooping at his career numbers it occurred to me that lofton is a likely if not sure thing hall candidate. am i wrong? i know there is much dramatic conversation that certain stat milestones are no longer automatic hall passes (delighted by that inadvertent wordplay), but lofton possesses a well-rounded career. here are his current pertinent numbers and accolades:

 

2400+ hits (soon to be in the top 100 all-time)

600+ steals (15th all-time)

.299 career average

4-time gold glove

6-time all-star

al rookie record for stolen bases 66

 

not only are these impressive numbers, but i haven't heard anything to suggest that lofton won't be back for at least one more season. despite that he's been left for dead by more than one team, he continues to prove his worth and i'm sure somecone will take a flyer on him in 08 - heck, he might be a good fit in milwaukee (veteran leadership, playoff experience, high obp, steady defense) - which means he will almost assuredly get to 2,500 hits and has an outside shot at creeping up the all-time stolen bases list a couple more spots. conversely, the argument against him probably involves him never winning a major award, never playing on a world championship team, and generally being overlooked as quietly having been one of the best players of the decade of the 1990s. so am i wrong? doesn't lofton seem like a solid debate if not a pretty sure thing for the hall?

 

 

[edit: spelling, italics]

 

 

(temporarily removed tag until limit is raised --1992)

[RU Rah Rah]

I am not so sure. I think he's going to suffer for having played for 10+ teams -- makes him seem like a journeyman. And I don't know if you're going to get in with less than 3,000 hits and a career BA less than .300, regardless. (Not that any HOF voter will care, but his career OPS+ is only 107, which only a little bit above average.)

[RobertR]

There's certainly a case to be made.

 

It would help Lofton a lot if Tim Raines gets a lot of support. They're fairly comparable, although Raines played in an era tougher on offenses.

 

Lofton's problem is that there's not a single number that screams automatic entry, just a collection of all around excellence for his position. It would help his case, just like it helps Biggio, if he can stick around a few more years and increase his counting stats. 650 SBs and 2,750 hits would strengthen his case a lot.

 

Robert

[DHonks]

On the argument that he was one of the game's elite CF's and leadoff men for around a decade, he should be a first ballot HOF selection.

[Kurt]

I sounds harsh but I think players should have to live up to higher standards to get into the HOF if they played for tons of teams in their playing days.

[Point Beer Is Best]

In his 16 seasons, Lofton has played for:

 

Astros

Indians (3 different stints)

Braves

White Sox

Giants

Cubs

Pirates

Yankees

Phillies

Dodgers

Rangers

 

Wow. 11 teams. He has played for a different team (sometimes 2) every year since 2002! Had he been able to stick to one or two teams his entire career and put up those same numbers, he'd have a better shot. I'd hate to be the guy engraving the plaque for his HOF bust.

[flosses like fossas]

in some ways, isn't there something to be said for his resilience and ability to put up numbers year in and out despite his changing environs? and not only that, is it at all possible that lofton's career be appreciated with the consideration that he might be the first pervasive example of the modern free agent system on a good/great player's chances? the way his having moved around so much is handled by the selection committee could be telling for future players as well.

 

agreed 100%, tim raines' fate might largely determine lofton's.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think there is no way Kenny Lofton is a HOFer, harsh though that may be. I could care less how many teams he's been on, but he just doesn't have HOF numbers. I think he'll be the guy everyone starts to 'feel for' when he's not nominated, even after many shots on the 'senior' ballot.

[Baldkin]

Raines had a much better career than Lofton ever did. Raines had a 4 year stretch where he was probably the best player in baseball... and its doubtful he'll get voted in this year.

 

The guy I'd say has to get support for Lofton to have any chance of getting in is Roberto Alomar - even though Alomar was a much better hitter and defender... if he doesn't get in, there's no way Lofton should.

[kgbaseball]

Usually if a player gets traded that many times, it's a smack in the face. But with Lofton, I think it's different. He's wanted by every team because he is incredibly valuable on the team. He steals bases, hits for an average, and plays an adequate CF. Whether he's a HOF, I just don't know.

[mothershipconnection]

I'm pretty confident that he won't get in. Like Robert says, there's nothing about his numbers that stand out. Yeah, he's been a great player with some longevity, but he won't hit the milestones that voters look for. Still, there aren't many players who do what he does (the speedster with a decent stick profile) that have been better over the course of his career.

[DuWayne Steurer]

By the metrics that Baseballreference.com puts on their player pages, Kenny is short in each one.

 

 

Black Ink: Batting - 15 (148) (Average HOFer ? 27)

Gray Ink: Batting - 64 (378) (Average HOFer ? 144)

HOF Standards: Batting - 42.7 (119) (Average HOFer ? 50)

HOF Monitor: Batting - 93.5 (164) (Likely HOFer > 100)

Overall Rank in parentheses.

[mannyduke]

I think he has about a 0% chance of getting in. He's been a fine player for a long time, but that does not make him HOF material.

 

I agree that Tim Raines was a much better player, but I would say that even he has maybe a 50% chance of getting in.

[JimH5]

I don't think Lofton is a Hall of Famer.

 

Bernie Williams was a contemporary, and I think Williams was a better player--and I don't think he's a Hall of Famer either.

 

Lofton was a leadoff guy and never finished higher than 7th in OBP. He hasn't won a World Series, and has a .244/.314/.344 line in 84 postseason games.

 

He's scored a lot of runs, and played a long time, but I don't see him getting in.

[brettac1]

Kenny Lofton was a really good player for quite a while, but I could probably rattle off at least 20 guys that belong in before him. Tim Raines is most definitely one of them.

 

A guy can definitely be a very good player and not be in the Hall. Lofton is one of those.

[flosses like fossas]

i agree that raines was a better player and deserves to be in ahead of lofton. that said, on paper, the two are an interesting comparison. with five more seasons in the bigs, raines has only 200 more hits and a slightly lower average than lofton, the bigger distinction in raines' favor is that he's got 800 sb, lofton is currently in the low 600s. raines was a 7-time all-star, lofton 6; both won one batting title. this is where the discussion gets interesting to me: just as we're discussing here, raines is/was renowned to be a great all-around player - a factor which shirks consideration of things like his statistical comparison to players like lofton - despite that he was often under the radar in that respect. all of the above considered, this subsequent question becomes all the more interesting, especially with respect to raines: on the off chance that kenny lofton plays five more seasons and maintains a fairly consistent statistical accumulation, is he a bona fide hall candidate on the strength of his numbers? even at that point, does he deserve to be in the hall ahead of raines?

[RobertR]

Considering Lofton is 40 already, I think we can probably rule out the "plays 5 more years" question.

 

I have no problem stating that Lofton had a better career than some of the guys in the Hall. Heck, even some recent guys too. I'd take Lofton over Tony Perez for instance. But it's probably going to be an uphill battle. Raines may have a tough time getting in and I can definitely make a stronger case for Raines. Especially when you start adjusting for era.

 

And who knows the politics that may rise up. Due to a steroid backlash, maybe all around speedy players will gather more votes. I doubt it, but you never know.

 

My sense is that either Lofton needs to have another special season or two, he needs to do something dramatic in the post-season, or there has to be a shift in voting patterns. But he's close enough that this is a reasonable conversation.

 

Robert