Next years draft?

[BrewPackBuck]

What do you guys think the Brewers will do with thier pick in next years draft? HS Pitcher? College Pitcher? Position Player? Just asking what you guys think that they are gonna do.

[colbyjack]

The past five years they have alternated between college bats and prep arms (Weeks, Rogers, Braun, Jeffress, LaPorta), so next year we're due for a prep arm.

 

I say that mostly in jest, but really the organization is thin on pitching, at least when looking at the team's top prospects. In both 2005 and this past year they went after bats pretty heavy early, as they did after taking Jeffress in the first round last year, and trading Inman, Thatcher and Garrison for Linebrink has also thinned out the pitching.

 

I would take a bat in the first round every year, but I see the organization addressing pitching early and often next year. Since they haven't taken a college arm in the top two rounds with Jack Z. as the scouting director, I think the way early odds favor a prep pitcher. Since the top of next year's draft as of right now favors college hitters, I think there could be some very good high school pitchers that fall to the Brewers spot, which hopefully will be later in the first round than what we've been accustomed to (outside of 2006).

 

And if the Brewers have extra picks due to free agent compensation, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go after a college closer.

[BrewPackBuck]

Thanks for the info. colby. One more question, who are the front runners of prep arms coming into next years draft? Any Power Lefties?

[colbyjack]

The thread linked just below, the '07 summer talent thread, talks quite a bit about some of the top players at both the high school and college levels:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=3338

 

Tim Melville, Alex Meyer, Michael Palazzone, Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole are among the top prep RHPs. Throw in Aaron Hicks if you prefer his arm over his bat.

 

Brett DeVall is a LHP that has been up to 94, and Austin Wright is a big, big lefty that sits in the low-90s. LHP Walker Kelly is known for carving up hitters than blowing them away, and Scott Silverstein has a good frame, solid repertoire and improving stuff.

 

One really exciting prospect is Kyle Long, son of NFL Hall of Famer Howie Long. Kyle is a physical specimen that you just don't see playing baseball very often. He is a chilseled 6'7", 280 pound LHP/1B that has been up to 96 on the mound and hits tape measure shots. While he does play football as well, he seems to be more serious about his baseball career, although scouts will have to wait to get another good look at him in the spring since I believe he intends to focus on football this fall, as opposed to trying to attend some of the more notable tournament events (such as the WWBA World Championship in Jupiter, FL).

[DHonks]

Colby, I've seen the Long kids in Montana at an airport, and it's amazing how they look (their dad as well). For instance, they have huge waists, but have almost virtually no fat on them...so chiseled is an understatement. They are just very well built. Their dad blew me away when I sat near him on the plane, as he looks like he could still play...huge, but not in a fat way at all.

[colbyjack]

Thanks DHonks, and you're absolutely right. 6'7", 280 and not an ounce of fat. That's probably how big a guy like Tony Boselli was when he was entering his senior year in high school.

 

I'm still surprised that he is committed to baseball. I wonder if his dad took a few too many hits in his time and made sure to tell his son about them.

[BucEbadger]

So say we end up with 5 first round picks i think we will see BPA with the first pick and then Pitchers with the next 4

1st pick IMO will be best player available thats not a Boras guy - Prob Prep bat that falls out of the top ten

2nd pick IMO will be a Closer who can fast tracked to the bigs

3rd pick IMO will be best Prep Pitcher on the board Jack likes Prep arms

4th pick IMO will be best Prep Pitcher on the board Jack likes Prep arms

5th pick IMO will be best College Starter on the board

[JJHardy7]

How many college closers get drafted high? This is just an honest question. I would imagine that most of them were starters or long guys at some point in college and there aren't that many pure closers. Are there a lot that go high in the draft?

[colbyjack]

Check out the thread "Drafting a College Closer" just a few spots down from this one on a more detailed conversation on the subject:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=3399

 

Drafting college closers in earlier rounds has become a more pronounced trend in recent years, and they're not guys that are converted starters, and for the most part they're players that served the same role at the college level. The most recent example is Casey Weathers, who the Rockies took 8th overall last June and could be with the big-league club at some point next year.

[dadofandrew]

A college closer makes a lot of sense for many reasons, though I'm sure they will take the player that projects the highest.

 

I do, however, see them gravitating towards college guys in the top 5 rounds, now that the team is contending.

[And That]

I see the team as gravitating towards pitching in general. Now that they have their guys in most positions in Milwaukee and a solid second wave of positional guys coming on at most of the same positions, I'd like to see them draft 10-12 pitchers in the first 15 rounds (not including a HS pitcher in the first round). I'd also like to see a really good defensive player or two drafted relatively high.

[colbyjack]

I do, however, see them gravitating towards college guys in the top 5 rounds, now that the team is contending.

 

The Brewers already did that this past year, with the organization (Melvin/Ash/Zduriencik) pretty much stating the same reason, so while I don't expect that to completely stray from prep talent, as that would get away from the whole best player available theory, I do think they will continue to have a preference towards college players.

 

And that wasn't a huge switch. In 2005 they took Braun, Gamel and Roberts (followed by Hammond in the 6th) among their top four selections (they lost their 2nd rounder on Damian Miller).

 

In 2006 they took Gillespie and Errecart amidst Jeffress, Brewer and Anundsen (followed by Bouchie in the 6th).

 

This past year of course Gindl was the only prep player selected in the first five rounds, with another college player, Merklinger, being selected in the 6th.

 

I wouldn't expect the Brewers to focus on defense when it comes to the draft anytime soon. It's pretty clear that they like high impact bats (Weeks, Fielder, Braun, LaPorta, Lucroy, Gamel), regardless of the defensive deficiencies, and prep arms (Rogers, Gallardo, Inman, Jeffress, Anundsen) early. Eric Farris and Cole Gillespie are really the only plus defenders the team has selected in the early rounds the past few years, and both of those guys were coming off of extremely successful seasons at the plate, so it's not like they were targeted for their D'.

 

I just wish they would approach pitching savvy the same way they value hitters, meaning, take the guy that knows how to pitch as opposed to the guy that doesn't, yet knows how to light up a radar gun. I thought (hoped) they were starting to go that direction when they took Inman.

[brewmann04]

Brewers need to restock with Pitchers this draft.

[Boy Jeenius]

It will be interesting to see what they do with 7 picks in the top 100 or so. Last year thay had two. They have not really focussed on any particular position in the past, always taking the best player on their board. However, having all of those early picks it's logical to assume that several pitchers will be on their list when it's time to pick.

[splitterpfj]

Since the rate of failure for young pitchers is so high, and since it's too expensive to trade for, or sign them away from other teams - this looks like the perfect time to carpet bomb the pitching position.

 

If there's a bat that really stands out, go ahead, otherwise, it's arms all day.

[colbyjack]

They have not really focussed on any particular position in the past, always taking the best player on their board.

 

Not necessarily true. Sometimes the Brewers seem to align their BPA theory with a team need, such as 2005 when they took Braun (and they were considering Troy Tulowitzki and even asked him if he would slide over to third base) and last year when they took LaPorta as a LF.

[Baseballfan3]

This kid Silverstein from Saint Johns High School in DC is 6'6" and throws in the mid ninties --- he has committed to attend UVA --- but --- has met with the Brewers area scout.....and may go in first round.

[colbyjack]

Thanks for the tip on Silverstein, who could definitely be in the picture given the Brewers extra picks, although I'm guessing he's met with almost every MLB team's area scout given his profile.

 

I may be in the DC area in April and may try to see if I can swing down to see him and/or LJ Hoes.

[GagneCY03]

Watching Silverstein's video on BBWTV, his delivery grew on me. If he really is 6'6 now (listed at 6'3 on BBWTV.com) and in the mid 90s with his fastball, I'm sure he'll be in the discussion for the first round in the near future.

[colbyjack]

Silverstein has a loose arm, and it works well, so when you add that with his size and current stuff, which sits more in the 88-90 range currently, there is a lot to be excited about. Since he's touched the mid-90s, it's not hard to imagine him sitting in the 90s with more regularity as he matures his body and overall game.

 

I've read a few comparisons to Madison Bumgarner given his easy arm action, delivery, size, etc., but really they're two completely opposite pitches. Silverstein impresses me in that he knows how to take off his fastball to cut and sink it, while also offering a potentially dominant curveball. He's not the overall athlete that Bumgarner is, but few are, but he could be a better all around pitcher, at the same stage of development and in the future.

 

If he continues to add muscle onto his currently long and lanky frame he could resemble Andy Pettitte. As unfair of a comparison as that is, that is his upside, and as Gagne noted, it's not hard to imagine him becoming a legitimate first-round pick come June.

[rousieboy]

Pitching and catching should dominate early picks and after the initial run creates a disproportionate amount of field players, then the "Best player on the Board" theory should kick in...

just my thoughts...with pitching and catching you can trade for anything.

Rousieboy

[fewgoodcards]

it seems like kyle shipworth would be a perfect fit for the brewers, but i don't know if he will last that long. maybe jacob thompson as a fast moving college pitcher that could fit in the back of the rotation in a hurry.

 

as for my cardinals, i am really hoping that harold martinez lasts until #13. he would be an ideal fit for our system.

[fewgoodcards]

jim callis gave his thoughts on the top 5 picks at this time in the latest ask BA.

here's the link

if you want his reasoning check out the story, but here are the picks
1. Rays- Tim Beckham SS Griffin High School, GA
2. Pirates- Pedro Alvarez 3B Vanderbilt
3. Royals- Aaron Crow RHP Missouri
4. Orioles- Brian Matusz LHP San Diego
5. Giants- Justin Smoak 1B South Carolina

i thought it would be fun to try and guess some more, so here's what i think up to the brewers' first pick

6. Marlins- Harold Martinez SS Braddock High School, FL
7. Reds- Tim Melville RHP Holt High School, MO
8. White Sox- Gerrit Cole RHP Orange Lutheran High School, CA
9. Nationals- Eric Hosmer 1B American Heritage High School, FL
10. Astros- Jacob Thompson RHP Virginia
11. Rangers- Aaron Hicks CF Woodrow Wilson High School, CA
12. Athletics- Yonder Alonso 1B Miami (FL)
13. Cardinals- Christian Friedrich LHP Eastern Kentucky
14. Twins- Kyle Shipworth C Patriot High School, CA
15. Dodgers- Isaac Galloway CF Los Osos High School, CA
16. Brewers- Alex Meyer RHP Greenburg High School, IN

thoughts?

[GagneCY03]

I could see the Brewers going with a college closer at #16. Gagne is only signed for one year, so Milwaukee could see a guy like Ryan Perry as the closer of the future.

 

This is Thinkblue from minorleagueball.com, btw http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

Tim Beckham is a good player, but he's not #1 overall worthy. That is more of a beef with Callis' projected top 5 at this point in time than anything else.

 

I also disagree with his thought that Pedro Alvarez will be a 1B or LF by the time he reaches the big leagues. He's not a Gold Glover at the hot corner, but I really like his instincts and arm at the position. If Ryan Braun broke in as a 3B Alvarez should have no problem doing the same, and I predict Alvarez spends the first half of his career at the hot corner unless he's drafted by a team that already has a strong third baseman (like the Rays with Longoria).

 

afewgoodcards, you did a nice job projecting the draft after Callis' top 5. I can't argue with Bubba Meyer at #16. I do agree with Gagne that there likely will be a college closer taken in the top 15, even if it is not the Brewers, and the only notable omission I see at this point in time is Cole St. Clair, although I admit I think him more than most at this point in time.

 

I'm guessing you would be happy with Friedrich, who is one of my faves for the '08 draft. He's Zito-esque, and just to take the unfair comparison pressure off of him, he's David Huff-esque.

 

Oh yeah, if Brett Hunter stays healthy he definitely will be taken among the top 15 picks. He's a guy I need to move up on my top 30, as he was consistently in the mid-90s in fall ball and could carry Pepperdine this spring.