Will we be in first place when we head into Wrigley?

[BrewCityUnit]

Looking at the pitching match-ups this weekend for our series and the Cubs series, what does everyone think, will the Brewers be in first place heading into the biggest series in the National League era for our Milwaukee Brewers?

 

Friday night

 

Vargas vs. Lowry- This one is a tough one to predict but I think the Brewers will find a way to win. I like our chances against any lefty pitcher

 

Marshall vs Owings- D'Backs roll tonight...with Owings in there, it is like the Diamondbacks are playing with a DH

 

Saturday night

 

Gallardo (or Sheets) vs Correia - Another Brewer victory

 

Lilly vs Petit - Cubs win

 

Sunday afternoon

 

Bush vs Lincecum - Giants win

 

Marquis vs Davis - Davis bounces back, DBacks win

 

Without looking at the pitching match-ups I felt pretty confident we would be in first place by Tuesday, and even though I am going to predict that we are, it isn't going to be as easy as I thought. I really don't like the pitching match-ups at all. Hopefully Davis bounces back on Sunday for the DBacks. What does everyone else think?

[JohnBriggs12]

Really doesn't matter where they are heading into Wrigley, but where they are leaving Wrigley. Get swept and it will be wait until next year.

[BrewCityUnit]

Actually it does matter. If we are fortunate to have a 2 1/2 game leading heading into Wrigley, getting swept in Chicago wouldn't be season ending.

[RightFieldCoder]

Davis won't bounce back. both teams go 2-1 and we're still .5 game out heading into fib-land.

[SeriesFinale]

I think if we go into Wrigley no more than .5 back, a sweep there won't be the end of the world...a huge opportunity lost and a big blow, but I wouldn't call the season over. And I think things are looking good for the Brewers to be no more than .5 back.

[JohnBriggs12]

I tend to agree with Robin that Davis won't bounce back. Although the Lilly/Petit matchup seems to favor the Cubs, Lilly's been hit hard his last 2 starts, and Petit dominated the Cubs in July.

 

Lincecum concerns me but remember the game he dominated the Brewers was late afternoon Fox game at Miller Park where shadows were abundant. He also ran out of gas in his last start and maybe that will carry over.

 

The real problem for the Brewers is that in the Cub series, they will face the Cubs hottest pitcher, Hill, and get Zambrano who is overdue for one his good games.

 

Brewers need all hands on deck and everyone swinging the bat well for the next week. Braun needs to get back going especially.

 

"If we go into the Cubs series with a 2 1/2 game lead and get swept it wouldn't be season ending"

 

I'll beg to differ with you. The momentum shift of that scenario would be devastating to a younger team like the Brewers as would any scenario that involves a Cub sweep. Quite frankly I think the Brewers have to win the Cub series unless they somehow manage to pick up 2 games on them this weekend which is quite unlikely.

 

Conversely, even if the Brewers were to drop back by a couple more games, winning the Cub series would put them right back in it.

 

Bottom line, come next Thursday night, nobody is going to remember what they did this weekend.

[hawing]

Davis won't bounce back.

 

He might if I ask him to. http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif I think I might break out the Davis jersey on Sunday for a bit of extra mojo.

[TauPentaRei]

If there is such a thing this time of year as a "bad time for an off day" I think yesterday was it. Aside from Braun and Hart, no one really needed it. The Brewers played outstanding baseball for 3 days against the Diamondbacks culminated by the playoff caliber third game with magnified execution and missed opportunities the Brewers should be thinking about. (Billy on 2nd with 1 out, Craig on 2nd with 0 outs)

 

This is neither here nor there but the more I think about Fielder's (Cirillo scoring) play the more I think it was below average defense. To stab the liner was a given considering he was holding the runner on. The tumble and roll and off balance throw to the wrong side of the plate was all less than graceful. (Hey, it's nice to be able to nitpick rather than picking Rockies dingers out of my teeth).

 

The Cubs were 'capital I' Incredibly lucky to get out of SF with 2 wins. Rallying against Lincecum on the 4th time through the order to steal the Giants' 1-0 win... Taking the next game in the 10th... the bad Zambrano showing up to sweep. The Giants cannot be underestimated with a rested Bonds and all.

 

The D'Backs are going to be pissed, happy to see us gone and looking to whoop the underqualified Marshall and the regressing Marquis. Make it a coin-flip shoot-out with Lilly-Davis. I don't see the Cubs winning 2. The Brewers, riding the well-deserved confidence and mojo (again, bad time for a day off IMO) and buoyed by the site of Sheets on the horizon (aka your girlfriend / wife picking you up at the airport), win 2* and head to Wrigley with their pennant on top of the flagpole.

[brewcrewnation]

If you would have asked me this question last week, i would have said no, but the way the team played in Arizona, that there ready to get back on track. I think they will win at least 2 of 3 this weekend and go into fib town and play there best ball of the year. For some reason I think they are going to go on a roll again.

[Bring Back the Stein]

Before the road trip, I think most people would have been happy with a 4-5 outcome, no? Now we're getting greedy, and greedy is great. I see winning the series over the Giants (that is one brutal team) and taking one in Wrigley. They'll be down. 1.5 games when they leave the sewer stadium, giving Cub fan something to crow about when he isn't urinating on Sheffield having forgotten where he parked his Tundra.

 

But then we surge in September.

 

Given how the pitching is shaping up well (starters seem to be getting a clue, Sheets is coming back and I think it will be HUGE to have a rested Villy and have a lefty like Cappy in the pen), the bats are getting better (if two of these four-LF, Hardy, Weeks and Hall-produce on any given night, we have a good shot at winning) and the Cubs seem to be getting desperate, I'm feeling less and less like throwing myself off the Hoan Bridge. Man, that was a bad sentence, but you may get my drift.

[BrewCityUnit]

Bottom line, come next Thursday night, nobody is going to remember what they did this weekend.

 

 

I guess I just don't see the Cubs/Brewers series in August deciding the division in August. There will be 30 games to play after that series. I think it would really hurt us if we were to leave Wrigley more than 3 games back, but if we don't lose any ground this weekend and then lose two out of 3 to the Cubs we are by no means out of it.

 

I was expecting both teams to go 3-3 this week, but now I really think we have a chance to gain a game and go 4-2. From here on out, I am just going to try to break the season down by series. I really don't see the division lead getting bigger than 2 games from either team any time soon. Throw in the Cardinals and this is going to be fun. I guess we can't forget that Atlanta rolls into St. Louis this weekend.

 

Where are you Russ, we need some probabilities for this weekend?

[rluzinski]

Where are you Russ, we need some probabilities for this weekend?

 

I don't take pitching matchups into consideration but really, they aren't as influencial as some think (although, they are obviously important). You almost are never going to see a team with an 80+ % chance of winning a particular game.

 

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/seriesprob082407.jpg

 

I used BP's AEQR, AEQRA from their Adjusted Standings report.

 

I keep reading about the giants being such a bad team but I don't buy it. Yes, they have one of the worst records but they're not far from being a mediocre team.

[Tbadder]

I the Crew will be .5 ahead in the standings heading into Wrigleyville and .5 behind after leaving Chi town--no big whoop.

[rluzinski]

I swear that the less time people put into making a prediction, the more certain they are of them. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

Get swept and it will be wait until next year.

 

The other aspect of this is that if we get swept by the Cubs -- we will likely get passed by STL as well.

[lcbj68c]

This is why I hate reading these types of threads. Nothing against the poster for trying to start conversation, but not knowing too much about the Cubs matchup, I read this thread and was pretty excited going into watching last night's games and low and behold they are both wrong, wrong, wrong and we are 1.5 games back. Why does every time somebody post a prediction about us enjoying the better end of a supposed pitching matchup that it never pans out.

 

Friday night

 

Vargas vs. Lowry- This one is a tough one to predict but I think the Brewers will find a way to win. I like our chances against any lefty pitcher WRONG

Marshall vs Owings- D'Backs roll tonight...with Owings in there, it is like the Diamondbacks are playing with a DH WRONG

 

[Ennder]

If anyone could accurately predict who is going to win they wouldn't need to play the games. The Brewers could win 10 games in a row, much worse teams have done just that. The Brewers could lose 10 games in a row, I'm sure much better teams have done just that.

[lcbj68c]

Anything can happen, I just need to stop getting my hopes up over a supposed beneficial pitching matchup prediction. LOL

[SeriesFinale]

I'm genuinely worried about getting swept in SF now...if we lose tonight, chances are high for that Lincecum on the mound tomorrow

 

I'll be happy with being just .5 back going into Chicago

[lcbj68c]

Saturday night

 

Gallardo (or Sheets) vs Correia - Another Brewer victory WRONG

Lilly vs Petit - Cubs win WRONG

 

Not to beat a dead horse, it's just what's irritating to read the woulda shoulda's. It's like a double stab to the gut knowing we just lost to a pitcher who was 1-6 coming in.

[SeriesFinale]

Not to beat a dead horse WRONG

 

I don't think anyone claimed these were guarantees, and the fact of the matter is no one could have predicted how bad the Brewers' starters have been so far this series (or how good Correia was tonight).