Jenkins an '08 Brewer - yea or nay?

[jjfanec]

Part of the reason Gross' numbers were so bad to start the year can be explained by completely inconsistent playing time. Since he has been given a chance to play everyday his numbers have been good. I dont think you can predict for sure how Gross would do in a full year based on the beginning of the season or right now. But i would say right now would be a more accurate case to draw from because he is getting consistent playing time. What we would need with Gross is a right handed platoon hitter better than Mench.

[Baldkin]

Mench is great as a RH bat in a platoon.

 

He's just had almost as many AB's vs RHP this year as vs LHP, which is why his overall stats are terrible.

 

Nedly decided to play him a ton vs RHP when he was "Hitting .350"

 

He still has an .881 OPS vs lefties this year.

[DougJones43]

Can we really expect Gross to perform as well as Jenkins has? Has everybody forgotten his amazing performance that got him sent back to the minors?

 

It wasn't exactly as though the incompetent management of the outfield (by both Yost and Melvin) gave Gross much opportunity to shine. He had a grand total 89 sporadically placed at-bats as of his send down on July 20th. I think the Brewers would have been better off giving most of the playing time Gwynn got to Gross.

 

The facts are, in 382 plate appearances between 2006-2007, Gross has posted an OPS of .858 last year and .834 so far this year. Those are pretty good numbers in a pretty decent sample size of playing time. And he only figures to improve. He was able to consistenly get on base throughout his minor league career as well, which is a very encouraging sign.

 

Although pro-Gross posters are frequenty being written off as simply being impressed by the past 7 days, there is actually a whole lot of reasons to believe Gross could be a very good player in a platoon role similar to what Jenkins has now.

[MNBrew]

A while after starting this thread, a different idea occurred to me. I wondered if the Brewers would consider approaching Jenkins to "restructure" his contract and in doing so, extending him with an option year to cover 2009. Offer him something in the realm of $5M guaranteed for '08 and a $5M or so option for '09. Then load it up with incentives that would a) boost his pay, and b) guarantee him for 2009 -- in both cases based on achieving strong offensive production, not on plate appearances.

 

Side note: When I originally mentioned Jenkins' defense, I wasn't suggesting it somehow offsets the diminishing of his offensive role or production. I was merely pointing out that his game is not an overall waste, and that the general beefs folks have about him tend to be focused -- and justifiably so -- on his hitting (or lack thereof).

 

Anyway, I'm not sure the restructuring and vesting option thing is what will happen. It was just another possibility I hadn't considered. Then again, maybe the Brewers are happy enough with Mench and would decide that the combined LF production of Gross & Mench, coming at the net savings it would provide if they bought out Jenkins, would give them more flexibility to shore up another position and collectively outweigh the pros of bringing Jenkins back. Who knows?

 

One thing is clear: The variety of opinions and rationale expressed in this thread point out pretty well all the pros and cons of the situation with Jenkins. It'll be interesting to see how Yost & Melvin ultimately weigh in on the matter.

 

Finally, applying my own version of logic to another question raised along the way: If you decline someone's contract option and buy them out, they become a free agent by way of you (the team) rescinding your rights to him. In so doing, I don't see how you could be in any position to offer arbitration to someone whose rights you've renounced. . . . There are different ways of reaching free agency. And it would seem that the only arby-possible free agents are those from your team whose rights you haven't chosen to relinquish.

[heavenquest]

Make cute remarks, spit your coffee out all you want, but have you got any intelligent reasoning to argue that Gross, Gwynn, Hall, LaPorta, Hart, Mench or Jenkins are going to be better than Nix?

[DougJones43]

Make cute remarks, spit your coffee out all you want, but have you got any intelligent reasoning to argue that Gross, Gwynn, Hall, LaPorta, Hart, Mench or Jenkins are going to be better than Nix?

 

 

In 851 career MLB at-bats, Nix has a .687 OPS including a totally unacceptable .276 OBP.

[MNBrew]

I'm intrigued by Nix's potential and would love to see that kind of production suggested by heavenquest. However, that major league career OBP would seem to rival the long-rued Brewers performance of Marquis Grissom.

[heavenquest]

Make cute remarks, spit your coffee out all you want, but have you got any intelligent reasoning to argue that Gross, Gwynn, Hall, LaPorta, Hart, Mench or Jenkins are going to be better than Nix?

 

 

In 851 career MLB at-bats, Nix has a .687 OPS including a totally unacceptable .276 OBP.

While you are checking his stats, try checking his first 500 ab's in the major leagues. He proved then he could hit in the major leagues and play an above average cf. Hit the wall in June 04, played the rest of the year in 04 and 05 with his bicep tendon not attached to his shoulder and a torn labrum in his right shoulder. My guess is that he might not have had much bat control with those conditions.

 

I know the Brewer fans don't know much about Nix, but don't miss it.

[DougJones43]

While you are checking his stats, try checking his first 500 ab's in the major leagues. He proved then he could hit in the major leagues and play an above average cf. Hit the wall in June 04, played the rest of the year in 04 and 05 with his bicep tendon not attached to his shoulder and a torn labrum in his right shoulder. My guess is that he might not have had much bat control with those conditions.

 

I know the Brewer fans don't know much about Nix, but don't miss it.

 [u]AB[/u] [u]AVG[/u] [u]OBP[/u] [u]SLG[/u] [u]OPS[/u] 2003 184 .255 .289 .440 .729 2004(1st Half) [u]151[/u] .292 .341 .570 .911 335

His first year was pretty unspectacular (again, terrible OBP). As you said, the first half of 2004 he was very good. But for one thing, the total is nowhere near 500 AB's. For another the first 184 AB's weren't very good. That leaves him with a mere 151 AB's of quality production from all the way back in early 2004. Nothing worth getting too excited about, in my opinion. And certainly nothing that would suggest he could perform better than Hart, Hall, Gross, or Jenkins.

[Fatter than Joey]

Make cute remarks, spit your coffee out all you want, but have you got any intelligent reasoning to argue that Gross, Gwynn, Hall, LaPorta, Hart, Mench or Jenkins are going to be better than Nix?

 

Plenty -- He strikes out WAY too much and doesn't get on base -- He is just not that good of a player.

[Ennder]

Regardless of Nix's potential he has not shown the ability to stay healthy for a full year so he is at best a 4th OF on our team.

[Invader3K]

I really haven't heard anyone realistically talking about Nix being a starting OF for the Brewers. I think if it was going to happen, we'd see him in Milwaukee already.

[RockCoCougars]

First, I will say that Nix is a much better player/prospect than Ben Hendrickson.... That said, I really don't see him in the Brewers future plans.

 

If Mench is jettisoned, I wouldn't be opposed to giving him a chance to make the team as a backup OF. I wouldn't be comfortable with either him or Gross playing full-time in LF though. I think Jenks has played pretty well this season and should be picked up for next year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm going to vote yeah.

 

While no "platoon" player got more than 5 mil in free agency, Jenkins is going to get 450 or more plate appearances this year, and regardless of what hand pitcher it was against, an .840 + OPS is a positive attribute when that player plays the majority of the time. Given what players are getting at this time, I think 9 million for an .840 OPS corner outfielder with good defense for 120 or so starts is not at all a bad value.

 

The thought is that Gross (.844 OPS) could replace Jenkins (.843 OPS). Who then, replaces Gross as the main LH bat off the bench/4th OF? The idea is to have as many players that are above average on your roster, not just your starters. Given the Brewers improved payroll status,, I'd really hoped that now of all times, the Brewers would not try to fill roles on the team "on the cheap" while dumping expensive, but productive players already on the roster.

 

At best, Gross is equal to Jenkins in offensive capability, but anyone picked up or brought up to fill Gross' role is most likely not going to be an .800 OPS player.

 

 

EDIT to add I don't consider Nix that guy. A .327 OBP in AAA doesn't equate to much of anything at the next level. Nice power numbers, but that is really about all he brings to the table.

[Ennder]

I don't see very many compelling free agents either so its probably either Jenkins or they trade one of the marginal SP's and a prospect for an OF.

[JohnA17]

I think the key is that they can have Jenkins for just 1 year with no more future money. I would definently see if there is potential for that 9 mil to spent better elsewhere but I suspect they may find out the bringing Geoff back without cutting into future payrolls would be a wise investment. Most decent FA's will look for multi year deals.

[brewdude15]

I vote yea. I would love to see Jenks retire in a Brewers uniform, and see him break that franchise HR record (for now). He will know when to hang 'em up -- when Prince Fielder surpasses him on the career HR list.

[DHonks]

I think it's likely that we have a Mench/Gross platoon in LF next year, or possibly Gross/Rottino.

[DougJones43]

The thought is that Gross (.844 OPS) could replace Jenkins (.843 OPS). Who then, replaces Gross as the main LH bat off the bench/4th OF? The idea is to have as many players that are above average on your roster, not just your starters. Given the Brewers improved payroll status,, I'd really hoped that now of all times, the Brewers would not try to fill roles on the team "on the cheap" while dumping expensive, but productive players already on the roster.

While the Brewers have improved their payroll status, they still have some relatively tight budget contstraints to work with. Basically, what you seem to be saying RoCo (since you seem to agree with me and others that Gross could roughly match Jenkins offensive production), is that you'd be willing to spend $9M to have a better backup outfielder? That's an awful lot for a team that figures to have a payroll around $75M-$80M next year. I guess I just think there are about 101 better ways for this ballclub to spend $9M.

[DHonks]

To me it seems that a solid OF is Hart in RF, Hall in CF, Gross/Mench in LF, with Gwynn or Nix serving as the 4th OF, and Rottino being the backup everywhere.

[brettac1]

So, is Nix the first player who has donned an actual Brewers uniform to post here?

[MNBrew]

Geez, after days like today, breaking an 0-15 slump but still coming back and failing to deliver again and again, the topsy-turvy emotional roller coaster leaves me wondering just what benefit it is to have Jenkins remain a Brewer next year.

 

As much as I like the potential of some of the other outfielders, the only present Brewer (majors or minors) I could see truly capable of earning the starting LF job is Gabe Gross. It does get me thinking, however, how cool it would be if Melvin turns out to have a major card up his sleeve for shortly after the season ends, not unlike the pleasant surprise of getting Carlos Lee in exchange for Scotty Podsednik. Likely? Hard to say. But nonetheless an appealing possibility.

 

I still want to like Jenkins as a Brewer, but days like today make me want to sign him up for the first boat out of town at season's end.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I say no to bringing Jenkins back. He just isnt consistent enough and I think that Gross could do just a good a job for far less money. We can platoon Gross with someone like Dillon and save money there but cutting Mench loose. Paying a righthanded platoon player 3 million is a complete waste of money.

[tigerbrew]

I vote nay. Jenkins is not worth that kind of money, I prefer to have Gross playing instead.

[sheethead]

There is little chance the Brewers pick up Jenkins' option. That said, if he feels compelled to come back to the Brewers for around $2M, then I could see him back. It will be interesting to see if any other clubs are interested in his all or nothing approach at the plate, and what his true market value will be. I highly doubt he will be making $9M next year or any year thereafter.