2008 Offseason, Possible Ideas

[crewcrazy]

My only problem with Ramon Hernandez is this -- wasn't he one of the players labeled as a hacker in "Moneyball"? A quick look at his stats in Oakland seem to confirm this -- OBP's of .311, .316, and .313 in 2000-2002 before turning in an OBP of .331 in his last year in Oakland. His OBP has looked better recently (peaked at .343 last year), but he's 31 this year, so I would imagine it's hard to say what he'll do next year. This year he's also battled injuries for a good portion of the year...he's only played in 104 games this year.

 

As for defense, I couldn't find opponent SB numbers for him, but I was able to find that he's had 8 passed balls charged to him this year in the 104 games he's played -- Johnny Estrada has only been charged with 5. I have no idea if it's simply because Baltimore's official scorer is tougher on catcher's than Milwaukee's is, or if Hernandez is actually *more* lazy behind the plate than Estrada. With so many pitchers on the Brewers staff that depend on spiking a curveball into the dirt every so often (Sheets, Turnbow, Suppan when his stuff is really sinking), I'd prefer to not have a guy with 8 PB's to his name this year (and 13 to his name in '06 in 135 games...yikes).

[dadofandrew]

Hernandez--.328/.423, 62 simple runs created

Estrada------.320/.406, 58

 

Considering that albatross of a contract, the players you'd have to give up, and a very minor upgrade at best, Ramon Hernandez does not seem to be worth it.

 

I must admit, hearing how the Pares' catchers have struggled to throw out runners, and seeing them in prime playoff position just verifies my opinion that it's a skill set that is well overrated. If the pitchers do not hold them on, you have little chance anyway.

[endaround]

Yes if you have the greatest pitching staff in the league that hardly allows men on base, you're cs% isn't that important.

[brettac1]

I don't think Ramon Hernandez is that much of an upgrade. I'm much more in favor of picking up Barrett on a one or two year deal and seeing what he can do. He's got a higher upside than Hernandez going forward, at least relative to what he'll cost them. He's certainly been bad with the Padres, but with the Cubs this year he wasn't that bad, and for the past three seasons was one of the best hitting catchers in the NL.

[dadofandrew]

I think Barrett to a 1-2 year deal would be much better than Ramon making $8-10M, but if you look at Barrett and Estrada, they are almost statistical twins, with Johnny actually having a better CS% in his career and '07, '06, and '05.

 

The Padres have actually allowed 1889 runners this year, versus 2020 for the Crew, fewer, but less than 1 per game. To try and say that SD does not allow anyone on base, so their CS% does not matter, but the Brewers CS% does, because they give up 0.8 more baserunners per game, is a losing battle.

 

The facts are, SD has allowed 9.95% of all runners to steal a base, more than double the Crew's ratio. If it hurts the Brewers, it doubly hurts the Padres. Again, I just don't any correlation, or a very minimal one. I view it as similar to OBP x SLG = runs scored...about 98% accurately. You can look at VORP and the like to try and find that 2% accuracy, or you can accept the down and dirty, easy to figure version.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Trade Ben Sheets

 

I have never really been a fan of this until the last few weeks. I don't have any exact ideas for what the Brewers could get for him, but I would assume his value would still be quite high. Mark Teahan would be a name that I would think would be interesting. A deal as someone else mentioned in another thread Seattle might make a nice trading partner with there young talent, stupid GM, and need for an ace. With the Nationals opening a new stadium next year I wonder if the Brewers could convince them to part with Chad Cordero and another player for Sheets.

 

If Sheets isn't going to be a Brewer next year I would like to see them go after a high risk high reward starting pitcher. The last I heard Curt Schilling won't be a Red Sox next year. Bartolo Colon is another name I am intrigued by depending on how much he would get. (probably will get way more than I would want)

 

So next year a rotation of Gallardo, Schilling/Colon, Villenueva, Suppan, and Bush/Cappuno seems kind of intriguing.

[paul253]

If I were to trade Sheets, I would want at least one high ceiling pitching prospect in return, along with another position prospect, or better yet, 2 pitching prospects. When Sheets is healthy, he is a really good pitcher, and trading him would create a major void in the rotation. I just don't think Gallardo should be thrust into the "ace" role quite yet. If Gallardo, Villanueva, AND Parra all prove to be reliable next season, maybe we can trade Sheets at the deadline if we aren't in it.

 

I really like the idea of Bay though. If we can get him for 2 prospects at Huntsville or lower I think we should go for it.

[pogokat]

If we can get him for 2 prospects at Huntsville or lower I think we should go for it.

 

we can't...

[crewcrazy]

Since both names have been brought up, would anyone deal Sheets for Bay, or would you avoid dealing him within the division at all costs?

[mothershipconnection]

we can't...

 

Especially with the two top players we have fitting that mold out for violation of the drug policy, yeah, there's no way. Bay has had his first bad year after a run of 3+ very good ones, and is signed to a very reasonable deal through 2009. Pittsburgh just canned a GM for making stupid moves like this, so there's no way his replacement comes right in and continues to fall down the same hole. Pittsburgh could ask for, and would likely get, two MLB-ready blue chip prospects for Bay. Basically, something along the lines of what Hart and Gallardo were last winter.

[crewcrazy]

Here's an interesting idea -- would you give up something of value to get Lastings Milledge to take over LF or CF? Early word from New York is that the Mets want to make some drastic changes this offseason after their epic collapse, and that starts with getting rid of "bad" influences -- namely Milledge and Luis Castillo (who's a free agent anyway IIRC). Considering Milledge is still extremely young and has a huge ceiling, how much would the Mets demand in return? Would a change of scenery help Milledge, or would this be another "Sheffield in Milwaukee" situation?

[kgbaseball]

Lastings is a complete moron. He's a showboater with a terrible attitude.

[sbrylski]

If we are going for a young OFer, lets go for Carlos Quentin.

[Cracked Bat Collector]

I'd love to see us somehow trade and get Jeff Clement.

[TooLiveBrew]

Is anyone familiar with the recurrance (or whatever you might call it) involved in labrum tears? Quentin's main injury this season was a tear of his left labrum, and I like what he offers, but worry about the longer-term implications of such an injury.

[kgbaseball]

Well, I tore my labrum as a sophomore in high school (5 years ago), had surgery, went through all the rehab, and it still kills my arm to throw. Since it's Quentin's non throwing arm, I can't imagine it'd be a huge problem going forward. I never had any pain batting or anything; it was throwing-related.

[TooLiveBrew]

thanks for the feedback, kg - much appreciated. I'd have to imagine, given all the different ways a player's body can be positioned during any given play (headfirst slide, diving attempt in the OF, pickoff return, etc.), that there is some risk regarding that injury with Quentin. I honestly wonder if that would be worth it, or if the risk can help make him available at a lower cost, or both, or if one of the preceding two outweighs the other... Just seems like a gamble to me.

[twobrewers]

It is just me, or does it seem like everyone is forgetting Vargas? I am pretty confident he will not be on our team next year, as he doesn't fit any role - but he is a very good #5 starter. (And could be a #4 on some teams) We argue about how much value Bush has - but then ignore any value Vargas has.

 

ERA WHIP BAA K/9

Bush 5.12 1.40 .291 6.48

Vargas 5.09 1.53 .285 7.19

 

I think Vargas (and possibly Gwynn) will be traded and go a long way towards solving our middle relief problems. That would only leave us with a hole at closer.

[splitterpfj]

Wasn't Hardy's shoulder injury a left labrum tear? I think Quentin will get back from that injury, I wouldn't mind seeing him here.

[colbyjack]

J.R. House has been outrighted to AAA, and therefore is available to sign with whatever team he pleases. I really, really would love to see this kid given a chance:

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3405

 

It should also be noted in this link that RHP Rob Bell was also outrighted. Bell IIRC was the player dealt by the Reds to the Rangers for Ruben Mateo in a swap of once exciting top prospects. I think that was right around the turn of the century, as Melvin should still have been at the reigns in Texas for thsi deal, and may have some familiarity with yet another former Ranger. Bell has been pretty lousy at the big-league level, but so were Doug Davis and Dan Kolb when they were acquired.

[TooLiveBrew]

Interesting thought, colbyjack. What do you know about his defense? From the Rotoworld link, it sounds like the O's were not impressed. A guy with his OBP ability (not great, but good) behind the dish is quite intriguing. Also, J.R. House is in the mix of all-time greatest baseball names.

[colbyjack]

Whoops, I replied in the wrong thread. I brought up House initially as a sleeper in the "outfield possibilities" thread:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=8550

 

His defense stinks, otherwise he'd have a full-time gig somewhere, as his bat isn't good enough to carry him, but I think he could thrive in a reserve or even platoon role.

 

I noted in the thread linked above that he very well could be the next Matt LeCroy, who had some value for a few years with the Twins. House is a better fit in the AL, but if a 30-something Greg Vaughn can play LF...