RHP McClung (Balfour trade) promoted, Villanueva optioned to AAA

[endaround]

Based on what? Its not like people are picking out an inning limit on the fly and saying this is it. Studies have been done showing a large increase in injury risk with larger than ~25% increases in workload. And keep in mind Gollardo is really young for a pitcher. Very few pitchers his age are in the majors over history.

Off the top of my head Doc Gooden and Rocket Clemens come to mind as to being young pitchers.

 

Josh Johnson injury occured becaue his manager miss used him in a game.

 

For every study there is certain types that are on the upper limits, while others are below the standard. Yo could easily be the type of guy that can handle extra innings. At anytime a pitcher can blow out his arm, tomorrow Coco could go down throwing the pitch in the ninth.

And Gooden was never the same after 1985. Clemens pitched only 133 innings his first season.

 

[Trowekamp]

My question then is who is going to fill out the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation assuming:

 

Sheets

Suppan

Bush

 

are locked. Candidates with thoughts:

 

Vargas - Can't believe that he isn't on his last chance with the penchant of burning up the bullpen. For a long season he isn't bad for a 5th starter but September is the time to push all your chips in.

 

Capuano - Again how can you trust him to start this year? If he does well in the pen I would lean towards keeping him there as his stuff is much better than Shouse.

 

Yo - Can't see how they can keep starting him. Would rather rest him and possibly give him a start in the postseason if they make it. I am all for pushing your chips in but would rather not bet my house as well.

 

Parra - Most likely candidate as they have been watching his innings.. I understand the argument about him more than doubling last year but there has to be an adjusted formula by the fact that he was injured. Surely he could take 3 - 4 starts in September.

 

Villy - If you move Yo to the pen or keep Cappy there why not let him have a shot? He has a lot of appearances but not innings so if he can get a week or two rest he could pitch all September without burning him out for next year.

 

AAA Rotation - Whether you talk Dickey, Jackson, or Defelice I am not sure you want your playoff chances hinging on a bunch of AAAA players. Of course I am being a hypocrite here a little as I would love to see Dillon start for Rickie for the next 2 weeks to see if he is one of the September Lightning in a Bottle players.

 

So I would vote Parra and Villy for the 4th / 5th though I am pretty sure neither will be in the rotation in September.

[BillScottCanRake]

Yo could easily be the type of guy that can handle extra innings. At anytime a pitcher can blow out his arm, tomorrow Coco could go down throwing the pitch in the ninth.

 

If the Brewers shut Yo down, it's not because doing so will with 100% certainty prevent injury, or because there is a 100% certainty if they don't he'll get hurt. The Brewers are gonna do it because a more than 25% increase in a young pitchers workload increases the probability a pitcher will become injured.

 

The only thing the Brewers can realistically do to help control Yo's health is limit his risk and play the probabilities. If the Brewers do those things, whether or not he actually gets hurt will be determined by things beyond their control.

 

If the Brewers do everything right and he gets hurt, that's bad luck. If the Brewers abuse him and he gets hurt, that's poor management. If the Brewers abuse him and he remains healthy, they were lucky.

[BillScottCanRake]

Carlos V won't use an option if down for 18 days or less, and with Carlos, options are meaningless anyway. I assume he still has all 3, as I think he was added to the 40 when he came up last year. Even if he "only" has 2 left, that would mean he'd have to be up for good in April '10...I'm not concerned.

Just to clarify, Carlos used an option last year. He was added to the 40-man roster in May when he was initially called up to Milwaukee from Huntsville. However, he was optioned to Nashville in July and wasn't brought back until September.

[dadofandrew]

I think they are more likely to let Yo pitch every 5th day and limit him to 5-6 innings or 100 pitches. It's tough to remove a pitcher from the rotation when you are in the race and he's one of your best 5.

[1992casey]

Check out this post and the links within regarding playoff rosters. Beyond the information in the post, I'd say we essentially have to assume that the situation is somewhat mysterious and as clear as mud.

 

Villanueva won't burn an option. To do that, he has to put in 20 days of minor league time. This is the same rule that 'bought us' another year of Ryan Braun by keeping him in the minors for 20 days or more.

[rluzinski]

Did I just imagine Melvin specifically stating that Yo won't pitch more than about 180 pitches this year? I can't have been the only one to hear him say it. Parra was mentioned as well. I highly doubt either will be pitching in the post season.

 

With the revamped playoff schedule, it wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers went with a only 3 starting pitchers in the first round:

 

GM 1: OCT 3: Sheets

GM 2: OCT 4: Suppan?

GM 3: OCT 6: Bush?

GM 4: OCT 7: Sheets (3 days rest)

GM 5: OCT 9: Suppan/Bush

 

The fact that a non-arm injury has limited Sheets' IP may actually benefit Sheets in the post season. If the Brewers are facing elimination for game 4, I'd bet a small country that Sheets will be the starter.

 

As or the specific starters beyond Sheets, who knows. Hell, the Brewers may elect to just piggyback Bush/Vargas and or Suppan/Cappy in an informal manner. Limit mediocre starting pitchers to 4 innings and their performance should be above average.

[endaround]

Pitching on 3 days rest is almost always a terrible decision

[dadofandrew]

It would depend on Ben's game one, of course...if he went 100 or less pitches, they would likely start him on 3. It's too bad they don't play on consecutive days, as that would be better for all involved.

[whizkid]

You can't assume Ben pitching game 1. He may be pitching 9/29 or 9/30 to clinch a playoff spot. I remember Tommy John going on 3 days rest in '82 to the Brewers benefit.

[don1481]

Did I just imagine Melvin specifically stating that Yo won't pitch more than about 180 pitches this year?

 

I hope you mean innings pitched, Russ... otherwise Yo's in a lot of troublehttp://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif

 

[JJHardy7]

I have posted numerous times how McClung pitches and what his stuff is like. He throws darn near 100 according to Nashville's bullpen and Rivera. He has a "nice" curve according to them. His biggest struggle is walks. If he comes to the bigs in a relief role and doesn't walk guys, he'll do well. As far as starting, he tires earlier than what we would like...a la Wise. Bray doesn't have what they call A + pitches at the big league levels. There are a few pitchers in the bigs who have been successful this way, but it is rare. I would really like to see Bray called up based on what he did this year.

[brewcrewnation]

This was just posted on jsonline brewers blog that Villanueva is still part of the post season roster.

[Weirdos19]

Maybe this is the idea:

 

September rotation: Sheets, Suppan, Bush, Villy, Parra with Yo getting a bit of a rest.

 

Bullpen: Cordero, Turnbow, Linebrink, Wise, Shouse, McClung, Capuano, and Yo. Not to mention a Sept 1st callup or two.

 

Parra has been used sparingly, at best, lately. Have a feeling he'll be our lefty in th rotation come Sept 1st. Sheets, Villy, and Parra will all have fresh arms. Suppan and Bush seem to be able to throw at will.

 

Capuano has been horrible the third time through the lineup this year (.300+). He could be a valuable long reliever if a starter has a short start.

 

Just grasping at straws.

[mothershipconnection]

Sorry to take this off on a tangent, but I just became really mad after Russ's schedule prompted me to look at the full playoff schedule and I found that nothing until the WS will be on Fox for the NL teams. Obviously, I'd be thrilled just to see the Crew make it in, but no HD and bad TBS coverage will take the luster off. Besides, if the crew doesn't make it, I still totally want to get an HD feed for playoff games.

 

Also, is it a little premature to have planned my trip to see my girlfriend around the playoffs? I decided to fly out Oct 16 and back Oct 23 so there's no chance I miss a potential Brewers playoff game.

[homer]

Does Aqua McClung throw anything besides a fastball?

[LouisEly]

Villy need to get some rest, in the rotation of all places.

 

Plus, down in AAA they can piggy-back him with the rubber-armed Dickey, so give CV 3 innings every 5 days (so basically two starts) to rest a little.

[HebrewHammer]

He has big time command issues. This kid is 100% hit or miss. Everything was high so when he starts bringing them down they're going to be right down the middle with no movement.

He seemed like he got a little unlucky tonight. A few ugly hits might have rattled him some.

 

You have got to throw strikes in MLB. Walks get pitchers into trouble so bad.

[JoeHova]

Just like I said about Balfour when he was called up, McClung does not have the control to pitch in a good team's bullpen at this point. That's what struck me as bizarre about this move. Sure, Villy had been getting lit up. however, he has shown he can get ML hitters out. McClung hasn't.

 

I think calling McClung up was the wrong move. He should have had to earn his spot in 2008, he never should have been an option this year.

 

Oh well, now that he's here, I hope he does well. I don't see it though.

[Yaz]

And I noted just as someone else mentioned without response that McClung has only one pitch in his arsenal a fastball. That was a great move I suppose. Too bad Villy has a fastball, changeup and a curveball. hmmmm.....

[Brian the Automator]

McClung throws a fastball and a hard curve.

[JJHardy7]

Too bad McClung didn't do all that well last night. It was only one game, so hopefully he settles down some. He does have a nice curve besides his fastball. The way he's pitched this year I just think the Brewers felt they had to give him a shot to see where he's at. And he won't earn a spot on the team in 2008 because I believe he can be a free agent at the end of this year. It was only a game, so hopefully he bounces back.

 

Note - he did start on Friday so I thought it was odd he was pitching on 3 days rest (not that this is an excuse, but I was just hoping Ned wouldn't use him last night).

[patrickgpe]

after watching him last night i could see how he has a low AAA era, and a high mlb one. He threw nothing but fastballs. When they were 98-101, he was dominating hitters. After a few pitches he seemed to tire, and was down to about 95 and they were getting hits off of him. After 1 outing i am not a fan of his work, which may change, but he needs another pitch to be successful.

[hauser42]

Yo could easily be the type of guy that can handle extra innings. At anytime a pitcher can blow out his arm, tomorrow Coco could go down throwing the pitch in the ninth.

 

If the Brewers shut Yo down, it's not because doing so will with 100% certainty prevent injury, or because there is a 100% certainty if they don't he'll get hurt. The Brewers are gonna do it because a more than 25% increase in a young pitchers workload increases the probability a pitcher will become injured.

 

The only thing the Brewers can realistically do to help control Yo's health is limit his risk and play the probabilities. If the Brewers do those things, whether or not he actually gets hurt will be determined by things beyond their control.

 

If the Brewers do everything right and he gets hurt, that's bad luck. If the Brewers abuse him and he gets hurt, that's poor management. If the Brewers abuse him and he remains healthy, they were lucky.

 

Lot of would should of could in that statement. A lot of pitchers get hurt and you even stated it limiting his innings is not a lock to save Yo from arm injury. I see him pitching in the playoffs if they make it.

[BillScottCanRake]

Note - he did start on Friday so I thought it was odd he was pitching on 3 days rest (not that this is an excuse, but I was just hoping Ned wouldn't use him last night).

 

Actually, he probably could have been available to pitch an inning or two on Monday if necessary. That would have been his normal between starts side session.

 

Lot of would should of could in that statement. A lot of pitchers get hurt and you even stated it limiting his innings is not a lock to save Yo from arm injury.

 

Anyone can get struck by lightning when the conditions are right. Playing golf in a thunderstorm increase the odds that can happen but doesn't make it a certainty. Whether or not a player gets struck by lightning playing golf in a storm or not is irrelevant when trying to decide if it was the right thing to do or not.

 

I see him pitching in the playoffs if they make it.

 

Do you really see him pitching, or is that what you'd do? The Brewers have been pretty consistent about this issue; if he's got innings/pitches left they'll use them, and if not they won't. I haven't seen anything to indicate they'll change that stance.