Powell Chat: Too many homers?

[rluzinski]

I think fans are sick of guys like Mench, Jenks, Weeks, Hall, Hardy, and Estrada having crappy useless ABs.

 

And that really gets to the heart of the matter; confusing what's the most entertaining style of offense vs. which is the most efficient at scoring runs. I'd say that 99% of fans and the media would find a manufactured run substantially more entertaining to watch than a guy popping off a solo HR. I am part of that 99% but I'll take an "ugly" run over a pretty run any day, however.

 

Big picture, I want an offense that averages the most runs per game and is as consistent as possible (doesn't score 10 runs, 1 game and 0 the next). A HR heavy offense usually scores a good amount of runs and, despite claims to the contrary, are just as consistent.

 

I think the Brewers are a good illustration overall that team OPS that is weighted more to the SLG side, may have problems scoring enough runs.

 

They are third in runs scored... what's the problem? It's just skewed perception, IMO. A guy hitting a ball to the warning track got just as close to scoring a run as a a guy who hits a single, steals 2B and gets saced to third, only to be stranded. It just seems like the small ball approach was closer to scoring because it took a heck of a lot longer. In reality, both approaches failed to the same degree.

[Fatter than Joey]

They are third in runs scored... what's the problem? It's just skewed perception, IMO.

 

Well -- the context of this chat was done with people reacting to the Brewers losing games and ground to the Cubs recently.

 

In July we were 13th in OBP and 11th in runs. In June we were 1st in OBP and 1st in runs. I think people see a correlation with OBP and runs, and mistakenly label that as "small ball". I don't think the Brewers need to bunt more, I think though they need to do a better job of getting on base, and perhaps that is the skewed perception you are referring to.

 

I am not a fan of small-ball except in extreme situations (like Estrada trying to get a sac-fly on Monday) -- I am -- however-- Down with the OBP, every last homie.

[rluzinski]

I think though they need to do a better job of getting on base, and perhaps that is the skewed perception you are referring to.

 

I'll take more OBP and runs any day but the idea that the offense is bad the way it's currently constructed just rings hallow to me. They've scored plenty of runs.

[Fatter than Joey]

They've scored plenty of runs.

 

At points in the year -- sure -- not so much in this last month, which is the context of what the chat was.

[brettac1]

Yeah, having a high OBP isn't small ball, or smart ball, or long ball. It's just successful ball. Unfortunately, for me, that's the issue that has dogged this team since it was constructed. They are in serious need of an OBP infusion somewhere in the lineup, be it a move for a LF or 2B, or playing Estrada a little less and Miller a little more (even though he's far from an OBP machine, he has consistently had an OBP of about 70 points higher than his AVG every year). Every little bit and every baserunner helps, they need to start thinking about maximizing run scoring chances every way they can - i.e. moving Hardy down the order.

[igor67]

Perhaps we should take a moment to reflect on the irony of conflating small ball and OBP. Some where Billy Beane has to be laughing at it all.

[endaround]

You're going to have a OBP problem when you have two players who'll see a decent amount of time struggling to maintain OBPs above .300.

[rluzinski]

At points in the year -- sure -- not so much in this last month, which is the context of what the chat was.

 

All teams struggle to score runs for stretches but that doesn't mean you make fundamental changes as a result. Is June so far in the past that fans have already forgotten how great the offense performed in that month? Fans need to look at the big picture when assessing talent.

 

Obviously, I'd love to see the offense improve even more but as it is, I think they are pretty good already.

[endaround]

I do love having to get 13 hits to score 5 runs! No more Homers!

 

http://www.bobpitch.com/anon/Spankie_No%20Homers.jpg