Make them go 7 innings

[AJAY]

What if Ned Yost (or his replacement) were to suddenly declare that every starter will now be required to go 7 innings no matter what the score is and no matter what their pitch count is. Do you think it might help? It doesn't seem like the current system is working anyway, so maybe it's time for something drastic. I am getting tired of burning four relievers a game night after night. I am sick and tired of losing too.

 

Here are some positives . . .

 

1) It might force pitchers to become more economical and give up fewer walks. The mindset would be different if you knew you had to go through seven innings.

 

2) It would rest the bullpen so that if we did get some quaility starts, the bullpen might actually be strong enough to hold some of the leads for a change.

 

Here are some negatives . . .

 

1) We might get some blowout losses. But truthfully, we are losing now anyway so what difference will the score make. At least a rested bullpen might help us win more later.

 

2) Concern about injury due to high pitch counts. I suppose there would have to be some provision to remove a pitcher under extreme circumstances, but pitchers would have to learn to be responsible to pitch effectively to keep themselves healthy.

 

I don't know if this would help, but I am just trying to think of something to change things. The losing is getting awful now.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Telling someone they have to do something isn't going to make them better at doing it.

 

At this point, I think ultimatums are only going to make matters worse.

 

These guys know what they have to do. They know what's at stake. Issuing "demands" such as minimum workloads isn't going to make them "want it" any more than they already do.

[Brian the Automator]

If Gallardo or Parra threw 130 pitches, I'd shut the site down.

[AJAY]

If Gallardo or Parra threw 130 pitches, I'd shut the site down.

 

Yeah. those are the "extreme circumstances" provision that I was referring to. Certainly you have to protect the young arms.

 

I am thinking if the someone like Vargas or Suppan had to make it through 7 innings, they wouldn't nibble as much and maybe might become more economical. Again, it's a different mindset when you have to make it happen.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Just for reference, Claudio Vargas pitched 8 innings July 27 vs. the Cards, with a PC of 117, after not going more than 6 innings in his last several starts.

 

After that 8 inning stint, in his next three starts he gave up 15 ER in 15 and 2/3 innings. I wouldn't doubt that there's a strong possibility that was at least in part due to his overuse in that win vs. the Cards. I understand that it was necessary to get a long outing from him, due to the doubleheader on tap for the following day, but there's a larger picture that needs to be focused on as well.

[Brian the Automator]

Anyone know what the average IP for starter in the NL is?... It would make an interesting comparison to see if we really are alone in this respect.

[AJAY]

I am just joking here . . . what if Vargas were to intentionally walk the first two hitters of every inning. Then he can start his usual Houdini act and it would take him fewer pitches to get through each inning. He only seems to do well when he is in trouble so why burn his arm on the first few hitters who will probably reach base anyway.

 

Heck, he might be able to pitch a complete game shutout instead of going only 5 innings.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Brian, I found this, which helps, but doesn't give an exact average. I'm guessing you've got the math skills to figure this one out! http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif

 

EDIT, crap, I don't know how to post links anymore.

 

Anyways, I found ESPN's stat page, and you can sort it by "starters only", and the Brewers are 9th in the NL in IP for starters, so they're right in the middle of the pack. 719 IP in 123 starts, FYI.

[aracko]

Anyone know what the average IP for starter in the NL is?... It would make an interesting comparison to see if we really are alone in this respect.

 

No but my guess is it is lower than we think - probably about 5 2/3 IP.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Brewers starters average 5.85 IP per start.

 

The Padres starters, interestingly enough average 5.81 IP per start.

 

EDIT to add that the NL average IP for starter is 5.86, for for all intents and purposes, the Brewers are exactly at league average.

[sgtcluels]

That's an interesting stat RoCo. I don't think forcing a pitcher to go 7 is the solution to our bullpen woes. Perhaps leaning on a few more rested arms for a few days to let people like Villy rest up would be nice. Lean on Linebrink, Turnbow and CoCo for 5 days and give Villy a rest. But the damage may already be to pronounced to correct this season unless we get a few massive amazing CG starts from our starters. Maybe Sheets when he gets back...

[endaround]

Walks aren't that big of a problem. Its the fact that anything hit on the infield leads to a single. Can anyone find out if the Brewers lead the elague in infield singles allowed? % of ground balls they allow for hits?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Maybe Sheets when he gets back...

 

I think this, more than anything is the problem. Most teams have one guy, maybe 2 who you can count on to give you a solid 7 inning outing more often than not, and when you don't have that guy, it compounds the problems that most teams already have keeping their bullpen fresh.

 

The other thing that can be said about the bullpen effectiveness, and I know others are saying it, and it's just a theory, but I'll say it again. Ned makes his relievers get up, warm up, sit down, warm up, sit down, and then come into a game more than any manager I've ever seen. Those bullpen pitches (especially the last 15-20 before you come in) are just as taxing on an arm as the pitches you throw in a game.

 

I think our bullpen woes have a lot more to do with the loss of Sheets, and Yost's general mishandling of the bullpen than a perceived lack of starter ability to pitch what's considered a fair workload.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Walks aren't that big of a problem. Its the fact that anything hit on the infield leads to a single. Can anyone find out if the Brewers lead the elague in infield singles allowed? % of ground balls they allow for hits?

 

Brewers starters are 6th in the NL in fewest walks allowed amongst starters. However, they're 12th in batting average against. I can't find a stat off hand for BABIP, but I think you're at least strongly on to something.

 

[pitchleague]

I, too, wouldn't mind seeing something like this, if only to get the starters to start attacking hitters and trusting the defense (shudder!) a bit more and as a result stop nibbling on the corners and running up pitch counts.

 

I understand why pitchers nibble, but sometimes it gets to be too much.

[don1481]

Brewers starters average 5.85 IP per start.

 

The Padres starters, interestingly enough average 5.81 IP per start.

 

EDIT to add that the NL average IP for starter is 5.86, for for all intents and purposes, the Brewers are exactly at league average.

RoCo, the only issue that I have with this is that it's the season average, including when the Brewers were "hot" and the starters were going deeper into games. I would imagine, unfortunately, that the "average" start for a Brewers starter, say, after the hot start is below that... and after Sheets got hurt, even lower still. If the pitchers aren't presently going deeper into games, the bullpen is going to be more worn down than, say the Padres'.

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

Brewers starters average 5.85 IP per start.

 

The Padres starters, interestingly enough average 5.81 IP per start.

 

EDIT to add that the NL average IP for starter is 5.86, for for all intents and purposes, the Brewers are exactly at league average.

RoCo, the only issue that I have with this is that it's the season average, including when the Brewers were "hot" and the starters were going deeper into games. I would imagine, unfortunately, that the "average" start for a Brewers starter, say, after the hot start is below that... and after Sheets got hurt, even lower still. If the pitchers aren't presently going deeper into games, the bullpen is going to be more worn down than, say the Padres'.

 

I completely see and understand that. And I agree. But "making" a guy stay in there to get shelled for 7 innings proves nothing, and does nothing to help win games. I'm as frustrated as anyone I'm sure, but just forcing your starters to burn up, regardless of how effective they are accomplishes nothing but make your DL list longer.

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

Also, just to keep going back to facts and stats, the average PC per plate appearance in the NL is 3.73. The Brewers starters average 3.79, which will amount to one more pitch every 18 batters or so.

 

Nibbling isn't the problem, walking guys isn't the problem. (ok, walking guys is a problem, but the Brewers are not worse than average in this aspect).

 

They're just not pitching good right now. I have 100% belief that each guy is going out there TRYING to throw strikes, and pitch a quality start. I can't honestly believe that telling them they have to "Try harder or else" accomplishes anything at all, aside from fracturing up an already frustrated clubhouse.

[don1481]

I completely see and understand that. And I agree. But "making" a guy stay in there to get shelled for 7 innings proves nothing, and does nothing to help win games. I'm as frustrated as anyone I'm sure, but just forcing your starters to burn up, regardless of how effective they are accomplishes nothing but make your DL list longer.

 

I agree with that statement, RoCo. Sometimes I wish that Suppan could go 9 IP and throw 300 pitches and for some "unknown" reason have his arm fall off, but really - who do the Brewers presently have that can come into the rotation and take his spot? Zach Jackson? I'm going to say "no" on that.

As an aside: The only reason why I threw out those caveats in my previous post regarding those stats is a morbid curiosity as to how much the rotation has become ineffective after two "key" turning points - the end of the fast start and Sheets going on the DL.

 

And BtA - I suspect that if Ned were to throw Parra and Yo out there for 130 pitches/start he'd probably be fired before he could say "Kerry Wood and Mark Prior." No need to even joke about shutting down BFhttp://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif

[Thurston Fluff]

Some of the stats I've seen in this thread show that the starting pitching is about league average in IP and walks. I'd guess that the pitching is league average in most categories considering the team is hovering around .500. I bet the team's offense is about league average overall as well.

I thought we were supposed to have above average starters. That might help explain why the team isn't as good as we hoped.

[don1481]

Some of the stats I've seen in this thread show that the starting pitching is about league average in IP and walks. I'd guess that the pitching is league average in most categories considering the team is hovering around .500. I bet the team's offense is about league average overall as well.

I thought we were supposed to have above average starters. That might help explain why the team isn't as good as we hoped.

 

Backup:

 

Averages are for the whole of the season, including the hot start when pitchers went deeper into games and were overall more effective than now. In the (at least) recent past, the starters have not been league average in terms of IP and walks. How much worse than league average is the real question here.

 

For example, let's say there are two SPs: One goes 6 IP/start for 3 starts. The other throws two complete games and then can't get an out. Both have thrown 6IP/start but the second one has resulted in a much more tired bullpen. An extreme example, maybe, but I think it conveys what I'm getting at here.

[Thurston Fluff]

Don1481

Why would one senario be all that much more taxing on a bullpen than the other over an entire season? Either way the bullpen is expected to cover the same amount of innings. In one example the bullpen may go more innings in one week then rest an entire week.

My point was simple. Regardless of how it got to this point we have a staff that is about league average which is reflected in an average record to this point. That shouldn't be surprising.

[endaround]

No the offense is not league average. They've scored 588 to a league average 570. They are 10th in ERA, every team below them has a losing record. Offense is carrying the club.

[don1481]

Why would one senario be all that much more taxing on a bullpen than the other over an entire season? Either way the bullpen is expected to cover the same amount of innings. In one example the bullpen may go more innings in one week then rest an entire week.

My point was simple. Regardless of how it got to this point we have a staff that is about league average which is reflected in an average record to this point. That shouldn't be surprising.

 

It matters because if the bullpen has had to be used a lot more often recently, it's going to be more taxed here and now than if it was used consistently 3 - 3 1/3 IP/game over the course of the entire season. I'd be willing to guess that the recent average (over the past month or two) has been closer to 5IP than 5.8. And that translates into potentially having to use an additional reliever/game to bridge that 4th inning of relief. Meaning that the arms in the pen don't get as many "days off" as they may have had earlier in the season.

 

Let's say the opposite trend was true - the starters were going 6.2 IP/start or whatever as opposed to 5 or whatever they've been averaging of late. That's close to 2 IP/game fewer that the pen has to be in, meaning that most likely, one or two fewer arms out of that pen would have to be used each game. The pen would, consequently, be not run down.

 

This is a situation where it's important to look not only at the season average (IP/start) but also the more recent trends of how deep the SPs are going into games, since the season average alone does not paint the full picture.

[DuWayne Steurer]

In the month of August, the Brewers starting staff is averaging 5.5 IP per start, down from 5.85 average on the season. That's a drop, but it's not a hugely significant one, as some might have expected. I think a big part of that dip is the 2.2 inning start from Yovanni during the blowout in Colorado. I'm not cherry picking, but suggesting that aside from one blowout loss, our starters have generally been going just as long as they have all season, and that the IP our starters are giving us is no worse than league average.

 

I'll say it once again, I think bullpen mismanagement has a lot more to do with the relief staff being burnt out than it does with the starters not going enough innings.