How Bad Has Cappy Been?

[Fike85]

The Brewers have lost 16 consecutive games started by Chris Capuano. That is a fact. What I find interesting, however, is how many times during that stretch where Capuano was crusing along only to have the wheels come off in horrific fashion. Take a look:

 

Today vs. Cincinnati: 2 ER through 5 IP

8/7 @ Colorado: 0 ER through 5 IP

8/2 vs. NYM: 3 ER through 5 IP

7/28 @ StL: 3 ER through 6 IP

7/8 @ Wash: 1 ER through 5 IP

 

Had Capuano been pulled BEFORE the poop hit the fan in those games the Brewers may have a couple more wins in their record. Furthermore, there are three conclusions that I would like to draw.

 

1) The fact that Capuano can pitch well for 5-6 innings indicates that he is still capable of pitching at an MLB level, and thus has not completely lost it.

2) Even so, you would like your starting pitcher to be pitch deeper into game than what Cappy seems capable of right now.

3) I would like to see Cappy kept in the rotation but with a very short-and perhaps even premature-hook.

 

 

(added tag --1992)

[recte44]

Seems to me like those numbers suggest he's better off as a long reliever.

[Ennder]

His career numbers

 

pitch 1-25 - .750 OPS (.745 NL AVG)

pitch 26-50 - .751 OPS (.727)

pitch 51-75 - .766 OPS (.753)

pitch 76-100 - .843 OPS (.813)

 

He doesn't seem to have a history of wearing down more than most NL pitchers, though my guess is those NL numbers include RP's, couldn't tell.

 

This season his numbers are..

 

pitch 1-25 - .800 OPS

pitch 26-50 - .674 OPS

pitch 51-75 - .699 OPS

pitch 76-100 - 1.021 OPS

 

He's certainly had his share of problems after 75 pitches this season.

[Brew Man Dan]

I was at the game today and I think Cappy did ok. He had a nasty slider and a great curve. I didn't watch every pitch, but it seemed like he threw about 10 fastballs all game, I wonder why? He's got good stuff, he just gets killed when he loses control. I also noticed that a few of his hits were off of high sliders.

[Fatter than Joey]

Cappy has struggled this year -- but in his current 0-16 streak -- he has had a few losses hung on him that where enabled by the defense and bullpen.

 

I think it would be incredibly short sighted of Yost to pull Cappy from the rotation, as I don't know that the Brewers have any one in AAA capable of pitching as well as Cappy.

 

That said, I predict in 5 games Cappy will be pulled from the rotation and Villy will start and give up 32 runs in 2.1 IP.

[JohnBriggs12]

"He had a nasty slider and a great curve"

 

I think you mistake his changeup for a curveball.

 

I've never seen him throw a curve, and his slider is his number 3 pitch which he rarely uses. He's almost a 2 pitch pitcher, fastball and changeup. He's effective when he gets ahead in counts and can get guys chasing his changeup down or a fastball up. By the third time through the order, he basically has shown hitters all he has and they sit on pitches and boom.

 

"I don't know that the Brewers have anyone in AAA capable of pitching as well as Cappy".

 

I don't know about that. I think just about everyone in the entire Brewer system is fully capable of starting 16 straight Brewer losses. Dickey, Pettyjohn, McClung, and DiFelice have all been mowing down AAA hitters, and Parra is rotting in the Brewer bullpen despite posting a quality start in his only major league start and following that up with 6 1/3 of one run ball in relief. Right now I'd take anyone of those guys for two starts until Sheets returns over Capuano.

[Brew Man Dan]

I was in Sec 118, so I had a great view. I don't know what pitches I saw, but i know he threw one pitch a lot (had to be 20 +) that went about 84-87MPH and slid in on righties and slid away from lefties across the plate about 4-5 inches in the last ten feet. The other pitch I saw a lot of was about 75 -78MPH and it looked like a curve ball, but it could have been a change. I'm sure I missed some pitches, but I don't remember seeing the gun go much over 88 or so and no pitch that didn't move some all game.

[bjkrautk]

Just to point it out, Capuano has more BB in 125 innings this year (48 ) than he did in 221 innings in '06 (47).

 

His control just doesn't appear to be there; worst-case of course is that last year's low walk rate was the abberation.

The amazing thing about Cappy's season is that it's so far off from '05 and '06 (which were near identical, but for the walk-rate).

 

 

I'd love to see him skip a start, but I don't know if the schedule allows for it right now.

[TerraceReserved]

The Brewers have lost 16 consecutive games started by Chris Capuano. That is a fact.

 

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

I think just about everyone in the entire Brewer system is fully capable of starting 16 straight Brewer losses.

I don't see why everyone is so hung up on the losing streak. Cappy has pitched bad, we all know that, but pointing to 16 straight loses is dumb, becuase there's so much he can't control. During this streak, he's averaged a measly 2.3 runs of support, with 10 times the Brewers offense scoring 1 or 2 runs. He's had 4 great starts that should have been wins if it wasn't for bullpen collapses and the crew only putting only 1 or 2 runs:

7 IP 2 ER 6K

7 IP 2 ER 10K

7 IP 2 ER 5K

8 IP 1 ER 7K

 

Now, there have been numerous occasions where he let up 5, 6 or 7 runs and put us out of the game. But what I'm saying is he should have 4 wins for sure, and probably 5-7 if he had received better run support and didn't suffer bullpen collapses. To continue to say "the Brewers lost in 16 straight games with him pitching!" isn't a fair assesment at all.

[brewers19]

What's up with this '16-game losing streak'? I only count 10 games, those other 6 losses were somebody else's fault. Give the guy some credit; especially after that 8 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 BB no-decision performance.

[Ennder]

Just to point it out, Capuano has more BB in 125 innings this year (48 ) than he did in 221 innings in '06 (47).

 

His control just doesn't appear to be there; worst-case of course is that last year's low walk rate was the abberation.

The amazing thing about Cappy's season is that it's so far off from '05 and '06 (which were near identical, but for the walk-rate).

 

 

I'd love to see him skip a start, but I don't know if the schedule allows for it right now.

His BB's are actually down from 2004/2005, 2006 seems to be the outlier. His K's are up, his BB's are down, his GB% is up compared to 2005. The only real difference between the years is his BABIP and LOB%. In 2005 he was lucky to not have a 4.50 ERA, this year he is unlucky to have over a 4.50 ERA for the year

 

During "the streak" he has 86 IP, 110 H, 35 BB, 82 K, 13 HR, 23 Doubles, 6.70 ERA. Those numbers are pretty normal for him outside of having given up too many hits.

 

I agree with what another poster said, if they want to 'fix' Capuano it seems the best bet is to baby him and yank him at the first sign of trouble after his 5th inning, which will be much easier to do after Sept 1st. I see a lot of bad luck in his stats and its probably messing up the mental side of his game right now.

Another interesting stat, the bullpen has given up 4 runs over average in Capuano's starts. Bush has given up .17 runs over average and all other SP's have had above average bullpen support. If Capuano has Suppan's bullpen support he's at a 4.75 ERA. That is why I stress all the time not to go around judging pitchers by ERA when something completely out of his control can make that huge a difference.

 

Using BP's expected wins here is the expected W-L record for the team for each pitcher.

 

Suppan - 12-14

Sheets - 11-8

Bush - 11-12

Vargas - 10-12

Capuano 10-13

Gallardo - 5-4

 

Not surprisnig Sheets and Gallardo are only winning records and everyone else is just slightly below average including Vargas who has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball for W's and Capuano who has been pretty unlucky.