Melvins job performance

[bklynbrewcrew]

Doug Melvin has not done a good job since last offseason. Lets look at his moves:

Signing Jeff Suppan for 4yrs/42 mil: this move made no sense when they made it and it makes even less sense now. Suppan is no more than a 4th or 5th starter and a small market team should never pay big money for such mediocrity. The guy was supposed to at least give us lots of innings yet he rarely makes it out of the sixth inning. This signing looks more and more like it will be Melvins version of Jeffrey Hammonds, an absolute albatross of a contract. I do believe that Mark Attanassio was responsible for this signing; falling in love with him due to his postseason performance but it is Mevins job to talk the owner out of making such a foolish signing.

Signing Counsell and Graffannino for 3 mil per season: these two signings werent good either. Instead of giving Counsell 3 million for 2 years we should have signed Loretta for 1 yr and less money. Counsell is an absolutely awful offensive player and giving him 3 mil per year is just another example of money wasted. Instead of bringing back Graffannino we could have brought back Cirillo at one third the cost and gotten a similar player at a far lower cost.

Traded Doug Davis, Eveland, and Krynzel for Estrada and Vargas: Can we now officially say that this was a bad deal. Estrada is seriously one of the worst catchers in baseball. He is hitting a punchless 275 or so with an OBP below 300. The guy is also an absolute butcher behind the plate and cant throw out any basestealers whatsoever. As far as Vargas is concerned I dont think I have ever seen a luckier pitcher in my life. The guy has an ERA near 5 yet he gets tons of run support and has won 10 games. However he has badly hurt the team with his total inability to get through the sixth inning. He along with Suppan are two big reasons why Carlos Villanueva has been abused to the point where he is no longer an effective pitcher. Meanwhile Davis pitches more innings than Vargas and is a far better pitcher. We didnt want to pay Davis 3 yr 21 mil instead opting to give 4 yr/ 42 mil to Suppan who isnt as good as Davis. This trade is a big loser in my opinion as I dont think Vargas or Estrada should be with the team next year while Davis could have still been a solid contributor to this pitching staff.

Traded Inman, Garrison, and Thatcher for Linebrink: We traded away our best remaining pitching prospect (Inman) who could have been in the rotation by 2009 at the latest along with another solid porospect in Garrison and Thatcher who could have been in the bullpen right now and given us decent innings for Linebrink who is having a bad season and is a free agent after the season. Melvin has said numerous times that if we lose Linebrink we get two draft picks and those draft picks would be higher than we drafter Inman. Now I say are two draft picks one in the 20s or lower depending on who signs Linebrink plus one pick in the 30s or 40s better than Will Inman alone not to mention Garrison or Thatcher? I say no to that one. Inman has a chance to be a number 3 starter or possibly better in the big leagues while late first round draft picks are a complete crapshoot. For maybe 30 innings of Linebrink this trade wasnt worth it and could really blow up in or faces if Inman becomes a stud starting major league pitcher.

In summation I would say that Doug Melvin has done a rather poor job since last offseason. I still think he is a great GM and hope he is with us for many more years but he too has had his failings since last offseason.

(added tag; put spacing between paragraphs --1992)

[Blazer25]

Inman has a chance to be a number 3 starter or possibly better in the big leagues while late first round draft picks are a complete crapshoot.

You realize Inman was a second round pick right?

 

He's no more of a sure thing than the draft picks which we may or may not get. He's an undersized RHP who had arm problems in high school.

 

I'd say the chances of him being a #3 starter are as likely as the Brewers drafting someone who will have just as high (if not higher) a ceiling than Inman.

 

So I'd say I disagree with your criticism of Melvin there.

 

The Suppan deal I'm lukewarm on but I don't hate. I just hate the contract.

 

I'd tend to agree with you on Counsell/ Graffy. I think Melvin overplayed his poker hand a little this off-season but overall has done a very good job as Brewers GM.

[whynotthebrewers]

I won't even comment on any of that seeing it is all done this late and its easy to pick apart things. But I will say that I disagree with so many things, I may come off as being mean and condescending if I do. This type of stuff just makes me mad because fans can react after the fact and they have all the answers. But if you would go back I seriously doubt that you hated all of the moves. We were trying to make our team better and in the past we sat on our hands and people still complained. Now we are battling for the playoffs and this is the stuff we come up with? Melvin? Probably not in the top 10 of our problems. Just live in the present and get out of the easy to live in, hindsight 20 20" world.

[Ennder]

Loretta would only be marginally better than Graffanino and Cirillo was never a viable option, a guy who can play twice a week and can't hit righties would not be helping the team.

 

Eveland is useless and Davis is barely better than Vargas, the difference in their ERA is almost completely fielding behind them. Estrada is still an upgrade over whatever random C we would have gotten.

 

I like the LInebrink deal too but I think Inman is going to be a #5 starter so I think the draft picks will be an upgrade.

 

I think the Suppan signing made a ton of sense, we'd be screwed without him pretty much with Sheets and Capuano having injuries and Gallardo, Parra throwing too much already. I just think we gave Suppan $1-$2M per year too much. Leave average starters get $9-10M a year now and I still think Suppan is league average.

 

Finally you cannot judge a trade until at least a few years after its over. Vargas could come out and have a great year next year, who knows or we may trade him for a prospect. Linebrink may end up re-signing for us and be our closer next year. Estrada might go on a hot streak and get that OPS back up to the .750-.775 range I thought he'd have.

[PeaveyFury]

You realize Inman was a second round pick right?

 

Third, actually.

 

Traded Doug Davis, Eveland, and Krynzel for Estrada and Vargas: Can we now officially say that this was a bad deal.

 

I don't think so at all. Vargas' secondary numbers are better than Davis'. Davis' ERA is pretty lucky considering his WHIP, BAA, K/BB ratio, etc. Davis is just lucky over more innings than Vargas at this point, and Davis' numbers have continued his drastic progression downward. And if you actually look at the HORRIFIC year Mike Rivera is having at Nashville (.698 OPS, .220!!!! batting average, .269 OBP), it's downright wrong not to see Estrada as an upgrade.

 

We traded away our best remaining pitching prospect (Inman) who could have been in the rotation by 2009 at the latest

 

Counting on pitching prospects to have a specific arrival date "at the latest" is setting yourself up for disappointment. Parra's arrival came about 2 years after his "at the latest" date, and we're still waiting on Mike Jones'. And while Linebrink may have been having a 'bad year' by his standards, he still had a 3.80 ERA and has been quite good in his time since coming to Milwaukee. If he helps us get to/win in the playoffs, the trade was a great deal.

 

I completely agree that the Suppan deal looks like a disaster, though.

[mothershipconnection]

You realize Inman was a second round pick right?

 

He's no more of a sure thing than the draft picks which we may or may not get.

 

I'm not about counting your chickens before they've hatched, but there's no way that a guy who has dominated up to AA and made himself your #1 minor league prospect is less projectable than a draft choice. Yes, there's a chance you wind up with a better player at #85 overall than Inman, but the chances are probably better that you get a greatly inferior prospect, even in the first sandwich round.

[JohnBriggs12]

Garrison is not bad either. 2-1, 1.24 ERA in California League since deal. Not even yet 21.

[Ennder]

Didn't even notice the Inman by 2009 comment, I'd put even money on him starting next year in AA, maybe being promoted late in the year to AAA where he struggles and starts 2009 in AAA. He has not pitched that well in AA and since switching teams has almost a 5.00 FIP and as many BB's as K's. Scouts think he's going to hit a big wall at AAA and take time to adapt so I don't think he's in the majors to stay until 2010 myself.

[Invader3K]

I think sometimes some people here would rather just see the Brewers hold onto all their chips and never make any moves. It feels safer that way, I guess.

 

Not every move will pan out for a GM, but overall, Doug Melvin has a great track record with the Brewers. I think we're lucky to have him.

[PKBadger]

I don't mean to steer the thread in the wrong direction, but just wanted to post a little tidbit I heard during yesterday's Cubs-Cards broadcast.

 

Jason Kendall, in his last 23 games with Chicago, is 1 for 33 throwing out baserunners. Matty V threw out this stat after Kendall made a horrible throw that ended up in CF.

 

This doesn't excuse Estrada's performance, but one of the main gripes about him is his defense, and it's fair to point out that we're not the only team in the division with this problem.

[paul253]

I'd say the chances of him being a #3 starter are as likely as the Brewers drafting someone who will have just as high (if not higher) a ceiling than Inman.

 

I completely disagree with this statement. He was our #1 prospect and was dominating this year until a few early struggles in Huntsville. After those struggles though, he seems to have adjusted pretty well. Isn't it said that the jump from A ball to AA ball is the toughest jump? Compare that to drafting a pitcher in the late first round or sandwich round, and i think the chance of finding someone who does as well as Inman has to this point are extremely thin.

I don't necessarily disagree with obtaining Linebrink, but I think Melvin could have gotten him, or someone comparable, for less. I think Melvin was so desperate to get a bullpen arm that he gave up too much. Personally, I wouldnt mind seeing the Brewers re-sign Linebrink, because as bad as the pen has been this season, just wait until next yer of Cordero and Linebrink are both gone. I do think that Suppan deal is going to absolutely kill us though. Its going to hold us back from signing at least one decent free agent every season.

[Katuluu]

I know he was a great quote, but I still don't quite understand why Inman was Picklered by what seems like the majority of the board. He's a high school pitcher, with an injury history, and his ceiling isn't impressively high. Plus he's still a long way from contributing to a major league club. Pitchers like him aren't as hard to find as his supporters continue to suggest. He's a good prospect to be sure, but it isn't the end of the world tht he's no longer in our system.

[jackalope02ca]

Not sure how you can criticize Melvin when the team is above .500. How many Brewers teams have finished above .500 in many of our memories?

 

Linebrink has been one of if not the best pitcher out of our pen since his acquisition. I would give up 10 prospects if it helps us into the playoffs. Yes we gave up a lot to get him but he has been everything we have asked of him to date and doesn't appear to have lost anything. None of what we traded could have come close to contributing what he will down the stretch this year. Check his current numbers. Pretty darn impressive.

 

Suppan was a signing that had to be done. It was irrelevant if it worked out or not. We needed to send a message that we could outbid others and Milwaukee is a place that future free agents should consider. It was owner influenced no doubt.

 

Counsell and Graffanino aren't signed at that much more than similar players would have cost. I think if things with Cirillo would have played out differently and even Koskie's status might have changed things here. Melvin did what he had to.

 

Lastly don't expect every move to pay off. If it did we'd all be GM's somewhere. If the majority pan out that is all that can be expected.

[JJHardy7]

Once again Graffy wasn't always in the plans in the off-season. Melvin just though he was signing elsewhere instead of arby and probably moved too quick with Counsell.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I am actually a big fan of Melvin and want him to stay here for a long time. I was just pointing out that I dont think his last few moves have worked out very well. The talent level on this team is way better than it has been in a very long time and Doug Melvin is the man responsible for that. The Suppan signing was an awful awful mistake that will hurt this team for years to come and there is no sugarcoating that fact. The next move is a big one for Melvin and that is firing Yost and hiring a top flight replacement. That man should be Bobby Valentine and if Melvin makes this move I truly believe that the sorry in game managing will finally be a thing of the past.

[Ennder]

After those struggles though, he seems to have adjusted pretty well. Isn't it said that the jump from A ball to AA ball is the toughest jump?

 

He's given up almost as many BB's as K's since the trade and has a FIP of almost 5.00. He has pitched poorly in AA this season.

[paul253]

Pitchers like him aren't as hard to find as his supporters continue to suggest.

 

Name one pitcher in our entire system other than Gallardo that has had as much success as Inman has had over the past 3 seasons. Pitchers that look like him are easy to find, pitchers than have had as much success as him are not. It seems to me that when we had him, a lot more people were a lot higher on him than they are now, like since he isn't with us anymore, his ceiling has dropped. I've never suggested he'd be a major league ace, but its not a far cry to say he could be a decent #3 or within 3 years. And I dont know why people are saying he isn't pitching well in San Antonio. Through 4 starts he is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA He has given up 13 hits in over 24 innings and only 1 home run allowed. All i can see is his strikeout numbers are down and walks are up a bit, but nothing in the Mark Rogers/Jeremy Jeffress area. He is a 19 year old in AA, thats pretty impressive.

[Brian the Automator]

Pitchers like him aren't as hard to find as his supporters continue to suggest.

 

Name one pitcher in our entire system other than Gallardo that has had as much success as Inman has had over the past 3 seasons. Pitchers that look like him are easy to find, pitchers than have had as much success as him are not. It seems to me that when we had him, a lot more people were a lot higher on him than they are now, like since he isn't with us anymore, his ceiling has dropped. I've never suggested he'd be a major league ace, but its not a far cry to say he could be a decent #3 or within 3 years. And I dont know why people are saying he isn't pitching well in San Antonio. Through 4 starts he is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA He has given up 13 hits in over 24 innings and only 1 home run allowed. All i can see is his strikeout numbers are down and walks are up a bit, but nothing in the Mark Rogers/Jeremy Jeffress area. He is a 19 year old in AA, thats pretty impressive.

Without seeing his starts, it's hard to tell HOW he's being successful. If he's pounding the strike zone and fooling hitters, then he's legit. If hitters are waving wildly at pitches out of the strike zone, he's Luis Martinez. If his BB numbers are going up and K's are going down, it's a bad sign.

 

[Ennder]

Hits allowed are a stat I generally ignore in the minors, they really do not tell much of the story. K's, BB's and ISO are the real keys to judging minor league pitchers. Its extremely hard to suppress hits at the major league level so while they show he has decent 'stuff', he hasn't shown the control he needs to use it. His BB's are up, his K's are way down, his stats since the trade look eerily similar to little Ben's.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Every GM is going to have some good moves, some bad moves.

 

I know a lot of people think Melvin is a great GM, and I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but it's hard to call a guy a genius when he still has yet to put together a team with a winning record.

 

That being said, I certainly think he's had more good moves than bad moves, but he needs to make a few more to make this team a serious, solid contender.

[Nader Raider Tim]

I don't really have much of a problem with any of the deals Melvin has made.

 

Linebrink: The Brewers are in the playoff hunt and needed another arm for the bullpen. Giving up Inman hurt but you need to give up value to get value. No one saw Garrisons hot streak coming. Thatcher meh... an undrafted signing...not a huge loss altough he could probably have filled Shouses role next year. The two picks the Brewers will recieve if Linebrink leaves will be a crapshoot, yes, but those two picks could end up being another future stud. Also gaining extra supplemental picks, imho makes it more likely the Brewers would be willing to sign a type A free agent in the offseason. Not say that it makes it likely they sign one, just that it is more likely if they have compensatory picks.

 

Estrada: Yes I would love to get rid of him, but not if it means having Miller, Rivera, Closser as the starting catchers. Eveland and Krynzel aren't a huge loss. Doug Davis has a great ERA. A horrendous WHIP, 1.57. Davis has a very good infield defense behind him helping him to reduce the damage. If Davis was a Brewer his ERA would most likely be 5.00+.

 

Counsell: Counsell can play good defense. Much better than Lorretta. Can Loretta even play SS? Counsell gets onbase at a .33o clip, Lorretta .350.

 

Graffinino: It seems like Graffy was a calculated risk. They offered arbitration hoping a team would sign him, if not then they had another quality backup 2nd/3rd baseman. Would I have prefered Lorreta to Graffinino? Yes, but I doubt that Loretta would have wanted to come to Milwaukee. Loretta was looking for an opportunity to start, the Brewers, at the beginining of the season, didn't have that to offer.

 

Suppan: This is the one area that I might be able to see the argument. Suppan hasn't been that stabalizing arm many thought he would be. It may have been a bad idea to sign Suppan with the infield defense being so suspect. In my mind the Suppan signing is fine, although I am not a big fan of the last two years being 12 milliion. The problem is with Melvins seeming inattention to defense and the effect that it has on the pitching staff. (?Enders? post about the pitching staffs was great)

 

In my mind the only area to criticize Melvin is his assembly of butchers in the field. Braun may improve. Weeks is improving. Fielder and Hardy have limited range.

[Blazer25]

but there's no way that a guy who has dominated up to AA and made himself your #1 minor league prospect is less projectable than a draft choice. Yes, there's a chance you wind up with a better player at #85 overall than Inman, but the chances are probably better that you get a greatly inferior prospect, even in the first sandwich round.

The chances of drafting a better prospect in the late first or sandwich rounds are vastly better than the chance that Inman will be a #3 starter. You're vastly overvaluing prospects. I understand why, as a Brewer fan it was all we had to hold on to for years.

 

However there have been 1000's of guys drafted in various rounds that have had success in rookie and A ball. Most of them are selling cars now. Inman's "stuff" does not translate into MLB #3 starter.

 

It's great that he had some success thus far, but he's probably at or near his ceiling as a #5 starter or middle man.

 

You can easily draft a player that projects to much better than that in the late 1st round or sandwich round.

 

Yo was a second round pick BTW.

 

The fact that you got a very good and proven MLB player for a "maybe" #4-5 starter is a huge steal for the Brewers IMO.

[hauser42]

First off seems like the circus just pulled into Brewerfan.net.

Suppan was signed so the Brewers did not have to rush young pitchers like Yo, Parra and the other guys. Just think about the innings these guys would have if they started the season in the bigs. Add to that they might not have been successful for a full season. Suppan has been an innings eater that he was signed on for. He has 8 wins and has lost some games because of the bullpen, the ace Ben Sheets has only 10 wins. If Suppan is so bad how can he only be behind big Ben by two wins. Here comes excuse number one Sheets is hurt, when isn't he. Excuse #2 his other secondary stats are awesome, well when does those stats start turning into more wins. Bottom line is a team doesnt get to the playoffs because it has good secondary stats it gets there with wins.

Counsell and Graffy where signed so this team has some veteran depth. I know people have forgotten or not around for the last time the Brewers were in a seriuos postseason puch, but those teams have solid vets off the bench. If you had high expectations for these guys with the bat shame on you, they have done their jobs.

Doug Davis trade a bad move, who is kidding who? Davis wanted a lot of money to stay in Milwaukee and yes it might have been less than Suppan he was only a 5 innings pitcher last year. This year he is solid, but looking at his numbers more in depth he seems a bit lucky. The other two throw ins would not have been much help to the Brewers. Estrada was an upgrade at catcher unless you loved Bad Chad catching. Wait that is right Vinny Rottino deserves a shot because he is a local kid, even though he has a frying pan for a glove and a average stick. Vargas has been as good as Davis all year long, he just was not a drafted brewer or a reclamation project that went off right away so he gets no love.

Comment about Melvin drafting butchers in the field is a little early. Check the ages of these players I didn't know they where 28 years old yet? Braun is only in his 2nd year at 3B he has shown that he has skills. Hardy lack of range?? He has more range than any SS option on the team and the best arm. Weeks has been on and off, but he has been better than two years ago. Prince will never win a gold glove, but his bat will bring more wins.

Inman had no spot on this team in the next couple of years and will not be missed, with a couple of good pitchers added to the minors next year early in the draft this team will be restocked. There are arms at below AA that will come up and be able to replace the best trade chip we moved to get bullpen help.

If you dont like what Melvins done go find Sal Bando and see if he has a clue on how to run a baseball team.

[brewers19]

So, because Suppan has 8 wins and Sheets has 10, that means that Sheets isn't that much better than Suppan is? If one were to play along and overlook the fact that win-loss record is essentially meaningless, then what about the fact that Suppan has 10 losses and Sheets only 4? Secondary stats nothing. Sheets has a 3.39 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP; Suppan has a 4.89 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. It's not even close. Sheets is the best starter on this team.

[Invader3K]

I don't think I'll be ready to judge the Suppan signing until he's gone from Milwaukee, frankly.